Monday, 8 October 2012

Monday Night Football Prediction

Just for the sake of my predictions records for the year, my prediction for tonight is a comfortable Houston win.

Sunday, 7 October 2012

NFL Week 5 Preview and Predictions

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have won 3 straight, since a tough opening weekend loss to the Baltimore Ravens and face the 1-3, Miami Dolphins in what looks like being a good match up for them.  The Dolphins rank 30th in pass defense and most of the Bengals success this year has come from passing the ball.  The Bengals have 9 passing touchdowns and just 3 from their running game.  This Miami team are the best in the league at defending the run so it looks as though the Dolphins weaknesses, play right into the hands of the Bengals strengths.  Fantasy players would do well to start, Andy Dalton, AJ Green and maybe even, Andrew Hawkins.  The Dolphins will need to have a big day from their rushing attack.  They rank 5th in the NFL, running the ball and the Bengals run defense is 24th.  Reggie Bush is the Dolphins biggest weapon today and I expect the Dolphins to put the ball in his hands. 

Prediction -
Has to be a Bengals win.


Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts


The Colts are coming off their bye week and it will be interesting to see how they respond to the news of their head coach, Chuck Pagano, being diagnosed with leukemia.  Some teams will be inspired to play better and some teams will be left playing with a heavy heart.  Ultimately, when you hear news like this, it puts life into perspective and makes the wins and losses we all want from our teams, mean little.  On the game, the Colts will have to protect quarterback, Andrew Luck.  For an NFL rookie, meeting Clay Matthews for the first time would be a daunting experience.  So far the Colts have done a good job of protecting him, with only 5 sacks in 3 games.  The Packers have a good defense though and it will be tough to beat the Packers.  Green Bay have been less than impressive but they showed good resilience to come back and win last week against the Saints.  They finally got some protection for Aaron Rodgers and it is something they need to continue.  Rodgers has been sacked 16 times this year and it has effected his performances.  If the Packers protect Rodgers, he can beat any team in the league on his own. 

Prediction -
As much as I'd like to see the Colts do it for Pagano, I think it'll be a heroic effort but the Packers win the game. 


Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
I think this could be a decent game and Baltimore won't get it all their own way.  The Ravens rank 4th in passing this year and 12th in rushing.  Joe Flacco is having the best season of his career but my biggest concern for the Ravens is their defense.  They are currently 29th against the pass and 13th against the run.  The Ravens are traditionally one of the best defenses in the league but the loss of Terrell Suggs has hit them hard.  Kansas lead the NFL in rushing and are 17th in passing.  If they can attack the Ravens and avoid the turnovers that have killed them this year, then this game can be close and maybe even provided a shock result.

Prediction -
Kansas to keep this one tight but the Ravens will edge it in the end, most likely off the back of a Chiefs turnover. 


Cleveland Browns @ New York Giants


Both teams have lengthy injury reports heading into this game and both have key players ruled out.  The Giants are 2-2 after 2 divisional defeats to the Cowboys and Eagles but it's hard to see them lose this one.  Eli Manning has been putting up some big numbers this season and against the 28th ranked pass defense, it's hard to see that trend changing.  The Browns are 0-4 and they have been unlucky in a  few of those losses but unfortunately for them, the NFL doesn't award wins for unlucky and they, along with New Orleans, have the worst record in the league.  The worst record in the league, going to face the defending Superbowl champions, there can only be one winner, can't there?

Prediction -
A straight forward win for the Giants.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers


This is a big game for both sides.  The Eagles find themselves at 3-1 but they have 3 sides in their division at 2-2 so any slips up will be punished.  The Steelers, simply cannot afford to drop to 1-3.  The Bengals and Ravens are both 3-1 and have winnable games this week to go 4-1.  3 games back, even this early in the year, is a pretty deep hole to get out of.  The match ups look quite interesting in this game.  The Steelers are 7th in passing and 30th in rushing.  The Eagles defense are 7th against the pass and 12th against the run.  The Eagles rank, 10th in passing and 7th in rushing.  The Steelers defense are 3rd against the pass and 14th against the run.  It looks like the easiest way to decide the winner of this game is to flip a coin.

Prediction -
Heads - Steelers, tails - Eagles, heads it is, Steelers win.


Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Redskins

The Atlanta Falcons got a look at a similar quarterback last week against the Carolina Panthers and they didn't do a good job of dealing with it.  This could be another big day for RG3 and the Redskins.  The Falcons managed to win against Carolina but things could be tougher on the road.  One thing I do expect in this game, is a lot of points.  The Falcons have a decent passing game and the Redskins rank 31st in the league, against the pass.  The Falcons are 29th against the run and are up against the 2nd best rushing attack in the league.  For fantasy owners, RG3 is a must.  The Falcons will throw for big yards, the only problem is knowing whether Julio Jones, Roddy White or Tony Gonzalez will be the guy catching the passes.

Prediction -
I've a suspicion that the Redskins might just win this one.


Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers
Seattle head to Carolina at 2-2 and I wouldn't be surprised if we are coming to the end of the Russell Wilson era in Seattle.  He has been very poor and Seattle are the only team in the NFL who have ran for more yards, than what they have thrown.  The Seahawks are averaging 131 yards in the air and it's nowhere near good enough.  They are 6th in rushing but the offense is averaging 282 yards per game.  There are 7 teams in the NFL who average more than that by passing alone.  The defense is good but they need more help from the offense.  The Panthers were unlucky not to beat the Falcons last week in Atlanta and will be looking to bounce back in this game.  I can't see this being high scoring and should be a decided by a touchdown or less.

Prediction -
The Panthers to win this one.


Chicago Bears @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Bears travel to Jacksonville looking to keep up their solid start to the season.  The Jags haven't been great this year and find themselves at 1-3.  The Jags have been struggling on offense and it's hard to see how they are going to score against this Bears defense.  The Bears have a few key players on the injury report but they are all listed as probable.  If they make it onto the field, it's hard to see the Bears lose this one.  I am a big fan of the Bears rushing attack this year.  Michael Bush and Matt Forte are both good enough to start at most teams in the league and if they can get them working in tandem then they will be a dangerous combination. 

Prediction -
Easy Bears win.


Tennessee Titans @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are one of the biggest surprises this year.  In my preseason preview, I said they'd win 3 games all season.  They won 3 games in September and things are looking good in Minnesota at the minute.  Adrian Peterson has come back from injury in good shape but most surprising has been the early season form of quarterback, Christian Ponder.  Ponder still hasn't thrown an interception this year and it's a huge improvement on last year.  Ponder had 13 interceptions last year and if he keeps up this form then the Vikings could be a surprise playoff team.  The Titans story isn't nearly as positive.  1-3 and without quarterback, Jake Locker.  They finally got a decent display from Chris Johnson last week but the jury is still very much out on whether he will get back to his old form. 

Prediction -
The Vikings to keep up the good start and go 4-1. 


Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
The one everyone loves, Manning v Brady.  It has a new look about it this year as Peyton is facing Tom Brady for the first time as a Bronco.  Both teams are 2-2 but would have expected to be in a better position.  The Patriots still have that explosive offense and have even improved their run defense, this year but the problem is still their pass defense.  Obviously this plays into Denver's hands and there's not many better quarterbacks than Peyton Manning to take advantage of it.  The Broncos have a decent defense, ranking in the top half in both pass defense and run defense.  As much as I look at defensive stats, ultimately I think this comes down to Brady v Manning again. 

Prediction -
Brady v Manning, I'm in the Tom Brady camp everytime.  Pats win.


Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers
The wheels came off the Bills last week in the second half against the Pats and a trip to San Francisco isn't a great place to be going to after such a morale sapping defeat.  The Bills quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick has some crazy stats.  He leads the league with 12 touchdown passes but he is also tied for 2nd in interceptions, with 7.  If Fitzpatrick can look after the ball better and up his completion percentage a little, then the Bills will be a serious threat to anyone.  The 49ers bounced back from defeat in Minnesota with a huge win in New York, over the Jets.  I think the key to this 49ers team is the 1st quarter.  If the 49ers get their noses in front, they'll be happy to let their running game and defense win the game.  If you get ahead of them and they have to put the ball in Alex Smith's hands, then bad things can start to happen to them.

Prediction -
I think this game will be tighter than many expect but the 49ers should pick up the win.


San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday Night Football, sees another interesting match up as the Chargers face the Saints.  The Saints have a great passing game and rank 3rd in the league.  The Chargers pass defense is 18th.  The Chargers should be able to stop the Saints running the ball and I think the Chargers hopes lie in getting their own running game going.  The Saints are the worst team in the league, against the run and if the Chargers are to win they need to put the ball in the hands of Jackie Battle and Ryan Mathews. 

Prediction -
The Saints agony to end, with their first win of the season.

Thursday, 4 October 2012

Thursday Night Football - Arizona Cardinals @ St Louis Rams

This weeks Thursday night game is another divisional battle.  This time it's the NFC West and a battle between the Cardinals and the Rams.  Both teams are doing better than I expected, with the Cards at 4-0 and the Rams at 2-2.  When I look at the two teams from a statistical stand point, neither side look particularly good but as we all know, the only stats that matter, are the wins and losses. 

The Cards are 4-0 but weren't great last week against the Dolphins.  They eventually won the game in overtime but I don't rate the Dolphins very highly and if the Cards are going to hang onto their lead in the division, they can't afford to be going to overtime with teams like Miami.  The Rams rank 11th in pass defense and 26th in run defense.  The Cards offense are 25th in passing and 29th in rushing, so they may struggle to get points on the board.  The Cards have a good defense but they could do with defensive tackle, Darnell Dockett getting over his hamstring injury and playing tonight. 

The Rams are 2-2 and had a good win over divisional rivals, the Seattle Seahawks.  I think there are a lot of similarities between the Seahawks and this Cards team.  Both are very strong on defense but struggle a bit offensively.  The Rams managed to beat the Seahawks on Sunday and I think this game will be quite similar.  I think it will be a low scoring affair and will be won by less than a touchdown.  The biggest thing for the Rams right now is making sure Steven Jackson gets on the field.  He hasn't been at his best this year but he is still regarded as one of the Rams best players and his presence will lift the team.

Prediction - I think the Cards winning run ends in St Louis.  The Rams to come out on top in a tough battle. 

NFL Power Rankings - Week 5

1 (2) Houston Texans (4-0) - Another week and another impressive win for the Houston Texans.  I've questioned them in recent weeks but I now think they have to be ranked as the number 1 team in the NFL.  The Texans blew away the Titans this week by a score of 38-14.  They only had 297 yards total offense but they got 2 touchdowns from their defense, with Daniel Manning and Kareem Jackson both returning interceptions for a touchdown.  If the Texans can keep this form going through the season, they'll be a hard team to beat.

2 (1) Atlanta Falcons (4-0) -
The Falcons move to 4-0 after a fortunate win against the Panthers.  Matt Bryant kicked 2 field goals in the last 5 minutes, including one as time expired to seal a 2 point win.  The Falcons struggled on the ground, giving up 199 yards.  The offense had another decent day with Matt Ryan throwing for 369 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception.  Ryan was sacked 7 times though, which cost the Falcons 64 yards.  Roddy White had a great day, catching 8 passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns.  Michael Turner had his best game of the season, rushing for 103 yards off just 13 carries and also had 3 receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown.

3 (5) San Francisco 49ers (3-1) –
The 49ers got back to winning ways in emphatic fashion, running out 34-0 victors over the New York Jets.  Alex Smith wasn't great for the 49ers, throwing for 143 yards on 21 attempts.  He always has a limited role and his job is more about game management.  The running game led the way for the 49ers in this win.  9 different players ran the ball for the 49ers and they picked up 245 yards between them, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.  This 49ers team are a good side but I feel if you got a lead against them, they would struggle, as we saw last week against Minnesota.

4 (3) Baltimore Ravens (3-1) –
The Ravens picked up a win on Thursday with a less than impressive performance against the Browns.  The game was tight in the first half with the Ravens leading 9-7 at the end of the 2nd quarter.  The Ravens scored 2 touchdowns in the 3rd and gave up just a field goal to build a 23-10 lead.  The Browns had 2 field goals in the 4th and Baltimore held on for the win.  Joe Flacco had another solid game, throwing for 356 yards, a touchdown and an interception.  The running game managed just 101 yards from 27 carries. Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin combined for 228 yards receiving and Smith also had a touchdown.  

5 (6) Arizona Cardinals (4-0) -
The Cards go 4-0 after edging out the Dolphins in overtime.  Miami led 13-0 at half-time but Arizona came back well and led 14-13, before a 4th quarter touchdown and 2 point conversion, left the Dolphins 7 points ahead.  Kevin Kolb found Andre Roberts in the end zone with just 15 seconds left to send the game to overtime.  Tannehill was intercepted in his own half and Arizona managed to get the ball up the field far enough to set up Jay Feely for the game winning field goal.  The Cards had to rely on the passing game as their rush was restricted to 1.9 yards per carry.  Kolb responded well, throwing for 324 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.  Andre Roberts led the receivers with 6 catches for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns.

6 (4) New York Giants (2-2) -
The Giants drop to 2-2 after a tough loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Giants will point to a penalty before they missed the field goal,as time expired, as a key factor in the loss.  It was a bad penalty to give away, as it took them out of Lawrence Tynes field goal range.  The other key play was Eli Manning's interception when he was in the red zone.  It was a bad pass and Manning seem to be trying to force a pass into triple coverage.  A touchdown or a field goal on that drive, could have swung the game in the Giants favour.  Eli threw for 309 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception.  Once again the Giants had 2 receivers who caught passes for over 100 yards.  Victor Cruz caught 9 passes for 109 yards and a touchdown.   Domenik Hixon had 6 catches for 114 yards.  The Giants only averaged 3 yards per rush.

7 (8) New England Patriots (2-2) –
New England got their offense firing in a big way in the 2nd half on Sunday.  The Pats ran in 45 points in the 2nd half to run out 52-28 winners in Buffalo.  Tom Brady had a great game, throwing for 340 yards and 3 touchdowns.  He even managed a rushing touchdown as well.  The Pats running game got going, with Steven Ridley and Brandon Bolden combining for 243 yards and 3 touchdowns.  If the Pats can carry this form into their coming games, they will be a hard team to beat.

8 (7) Green Bay Packers (2-2) -
The Packers managed to sneak a win on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints.  It wasn't their best performance but they will be happy to pick up the win.  Aaron Rodgers threw for 319 yards, 4 touchdowns and an interception.  Cedric Benson led the running game with, 84 yards from 18 carries.  There's still something missing from this Green Bay side but they have enough talent on the roster to find a way to make it work.      

9 (9) Chicago Bears (3-1) -
The Bears picked up a big win in Dallas, over the Cowboys, running out 34-18 winners.  The Bears defense came up big, intercepting Tony Romo 5 times, including taking 2 back for touchdowns. The Bears offense had a steady day with quarterback, Jay Cutler throwing for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Running-back, Matt Forte, had a decent return from injury, running for 52 yards off 13 carries.  The Bears find themselves at 3-1 and need to keep winning games as they have a tough division.

10 (12) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) -
No turnovers = a win over a very good New York Giants team.  It was a tough battle between two sides, who on their day can beat any team in the NFL and on this occasion the Eagles edged it by 2 points.  The Eagles have a great record against the Giants, winning 8 of the last 9.  Michael Vick had a decent game, throwing for 241 yards and a touchdown.  DeSean Jackson caught 6 passes for 99 yards and a touchdown but the star of the show was LeSean McCoy.  McCoy ran for 123 yards and also caught 3 passes for 17 yards.  If the Eagles can keep the ball then they will go far but unfortunately turnovers look like they could creep in at any time and ultimately I think it will be their downfall.

11 (13) San Diego Chargers (3-1) -
The Chargers got back to winning ways with a win in Kansas City, over the Chiefs.  The Chiefs had a bad day, turning the ball over 6 times and against San Diego, you won't get away with that.  Quarterback, Philip Rivers, completed 18 of his 23 passes for 209 yards.  He had 2 touchdowns and an interception.  Ryan Matthews led the running attack, picking up 61 yards off 14 carries.

12 (16) Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) -
Another win for the Bengals and once again the explosive combination of Andy Dalton to AJ Green, proved too much for the Jags to handle.  Green caught 6 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown.  Dalton threw for 244 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception.  The Jags done a decent job on BenJarvus Green-Ellis, restricting him to 3.2 yards per carry.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Bengals are the best team to watch in the NFL.

13 (20) Minnesota Vikings (3-1) –
The Vikings are flying right now and got another very good win in Detroit, over the Lions.  This week, their special teams unit won them the game.  Percy Harvin returned the opening kickoff and then in the 3rd quarter, Marcus Sherels returned a punt.  They added 2 field goals and held the Lions at bay to pick up the win.  Adrian Peterson had another good day, running for 102 yards.

14 (11) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) –
The Steelers were on a bye this week and will be hoping the rest does them good.  They have started 1-2 and need to pick up a win this week when they host the Philadelhia Eagles.

15 (19) Denver Broncos (2-2) -
I did say in my preview that it is never a good idea to right off a Manning and it looks like it was a good call.  Peyton Manning, once again, looked like the quarterback we all remember.  He completed 30 of 38 passes for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Manning was supported by a good display from running-back, Willis McGahee who had 112 yards on the ground and a touchdown.  The win keeps the Broncos one win behind the Chargers in the AFC West.

16 (10) Dallas Cowboys (2-2) -
Dallas suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.  Quarterback, Tony Romo had 5 interceptions, 2 of which were returned for touchdowns.  Kyle Orton finished the game for the Cowboys and led a touchdown drive,so there are other options for the Cowboys, if they decide they have had enough of Tony Romo. 

17 (21) St Louis Rams (2-2) –
The Rams picked up a crucial win over the Seattle Seahawks to go 2-2 for the season.  It was a tight game and the sides were close on almost every statistic.  The difference between the 2 sides was turnovers.  The Rams only turned the ball over once, but the Seahawks turned it over 3 times.  Sam Bradford threw for 221 yards and an interception.  The running game was kept quiet, averaging just 2.8 yards per carry.

18 (22) Washington Redskins (2-2) -
Robert Griffin III got his 2nd win in the NFL, leading the Redskins to a 24-22 victory in Tampa Bay.  RG3 had another good game, throwing for 323 yards.  On the ground he had, 36 yards and a touchdown off 8 carries.  Questions will be asked of Redskins kicker, Billy Cundiff.  Despite kicking the game winning field goal, I can't see the coaches being happy with the fact that he missed three before that one.  The miss from 57 yards can be forgiven but the 31 and 41 yarders will not have gone down well.

19 (15) Buffalo Bills (2-2) –
The Bills suffered a heavy defeat at home to the Patriots after conceding 45 points in the last 23:10 of the contest.  The Bills led 21-7 after an early, 3rd quarter touchdown but the Patriots exploded into life from then on and ran out easy winners.  Quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick had a mixed day throwing for 350 yards and 4 touchdowns.  On the downside he also had 4 interceptions.  Buffalo also had 2 lost fumbles.  Turning the ball over 6 times against the Pats is a recipe for disaster and ultimately the Bills paid the price.

20 (14) New York Jets (2-2) –
The Jets suffered a humiliating defeat at home to the 49ers, losing 34-0.  I have no idea how Mark Sanchez still has a job but Rex Ryan has stood by him to this point.  Surely Tim Tebow will get the nod before long.  Sanchez completed less than half of his passes for 103 yards and an interception.  The Jets running game was equally bad, managing just, 2.6 yards per carry.  The defense couldn't stop the 49ers from running the ball and gave up 245 yards on the ground.

21 (17) Seattle Seahawks (2-2) –
The Seahawks fall to 2-2 after a disappointing defeat to the Rams.  Quarterback, Russell Wilson, had three interceptions and no touchdowns.  Seattle were led by a strong display from running-back, Marshawn Lynch.  Lynch had 118 yards and a touchdown.  The Seahawks may now be thinking about a change at quarterback.  Russell Wilson has not impressed me and they have Matt Flynn on a big contract.  I wouldn't be surprised if Flynn gets the nod in the next few weeks.

22 (18) Detroit Lions (1-3) -
Big plays on special teams killed the Lions this week as they lost at home, to the Vikings.  The Lions had over 100 yards more offense than the Vikings but they gave up a kickoff return touchdown and punt return touchdown and it cost them the game.  Matt Stafford threw for 319 yards and he scored with a rushing touchdown.  However, it wasn't enough for the Lions, who drop to 1-3.

23 (23) Tennessee Titans (1-3) -
The Titans suffered a defeat at the hands of the Texans in Houston on Sunday.  They had more yards of offense than the Texans but they had 3 turnovers which let them down.  On the plus side for the Titans, they finally got a performance from Chris Johnson.  Johnson ran for 141 yards off 25 carries.  It's the first time this year he has shown signs of his past glories and much of the Titans hopes rest on his shoulders.

24 (25) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) -
The Bucs slide to 1-3 after a home defeat to the Washington Redskins.  The Bucs scored a field goal with 1:42 left to go ahead by a point but the Redskins went straight up the field and scored a field goal of their own as time expired to seal the win.  Quarterback, Josh Freeman had a better day, throwing for 299 yards, a touchdown and an interception.  The running game was solid too, averaging 4.4 yards per rush.  Tampa Bay need to pick up some wins or it looks as though their season will be over early.

25 (24) Oakland Raiders (1-3) –
Oakland suffered a heavy defeat to divisional rivals, Denver on Sunday.  The game was close at half-time but Denver blew the Raiders away in the 2nd half, scoring 27 unanswered points.  The Raiders offense was very poor.  The rushing attack, only picked up 56 yards off 16 attempts and Carson Palmer completed just 19 of his 34 attempts for 202 yards.  The one positive for the Raiders is, they never turned the ball over but it didn't do them any favours as they were still well beaten.

26 (26) Indianapolis Colts (1-2) -
The Colts were on a bye week but it wasn't all rest and relaxation for them.  The franchise has been rocked by the news that, head coach, Chuck Pagano, has been diagnosed with leukemia.  My thoughts and prayers are with him at this time and I wish him a speedy recovery. 

27 (29) Carolina Panthers (1-3) –
The Panthers can consider themselves very unlucky to have lost this game.  In the end it took 2 field goals in the last 5 minutes of the game for Atlanta to come out on top but the game really could have gone either way.  The Panthers matched the Falcons in almost every category and there was only one key difference.  Atlanta had 2 penalties for 15 yards but the Panthers had 9 penalties for 64 yards.  In a game that was decided by just 2 points, the difference of 49 penalty yards becomes huge.  Cam Newton had a decent game for the Panthers, throwing for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He also picked up 86 yards and a touchdown on the ground.

28 (31) New Orleans Saints (0-4) –
The Saints can consider themselves unlucky to have lost this one.  They certainly looked a lot more like the Saints we remember from previous seasons.  Drew Brees had a big game, throwing for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns.  The running game was quite poor, averaging just 2.4 yards per carry.  The Saints biggest fault so far has been teams have killed them on the ground.  This week they gave up 102 yards on the ground from 25 attempts.  It's not a great figure but it is a huge improvement on the previous three games.

29 (30) Miami Dolphins (1-3) –
Another tough loss for the Dolphins, losing in overtime to the Cardinals.  The Dolphins were 22 seconds from victory and will no doubt be gutted to have lost another overtime game.  Quarterback, Ryan Tannehill had a memorable game, throwing for 431 yards, a touchdown and 2 interceptions.  Davone Bess caught 7 passes for 123 yards but he was outdone by Brian Hartline who caught 12 passes for 253 yards and a touchdown.  If Tannehill can cut out the turnovers then this Miami offense could be dangerous.

30 (27) Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) –
The Chiefs suffered a heavy loss at the hands of divisional rivals, San Diego.  The Chiefs were the masters of their own downfall, turning the ball over 6 times.  The Chargers punished them and picked up 17 points off those turnovers.  Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel played well, turnovers aside.  Charles had 115 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns.  Cassel threw for 251 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Turnovers are hurting the Chiefs and they need to take better care of the football.

31 (28) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) -
Jacksonville struggled to get their offense firing in this game and only got 212 yards of total offense.  Maurice Jones-Drew picked up 38 yards from 13 carries and Blaine Gabbert threw for just 186 yards, a touchdown and an interception.  Gabbert was sacked 6 times, which cost the team, 43 yards.  The defense were unable to get on top of the Bengals and it resulted in a comfortable loss.

32 (32) Cleveland Browns (0-4) –
Another defeat for the Browns but they can be quite proud of their efforts this week.  Not many gave them a chance in Baltimore but they kept the game close and held their own against a team many people expect to be one of the best in the AFC.  The Browns were behind by just 2 points at half time but could only manage 3 field goals in the second half.  If the Browns had been able to carry one of those drives into the end zone, they may have managed to nick a win.  Brandon Weeden threw for 320 yards which was a good performance but the problem was, he completed less than half of his passes, threw no touchdowns and did have an interception.

Monday, 1 October 2012

Monday Night Football - Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys

The Bears go to Dallas looking to go 3-1 for the season, after a good win last week.  The Cowboys are also looking to go 3-1 and join the Philadelphia Eagles at the top of the NFC East.  The Bears are strong on defense and coming into this week, were ranked 6th against the pass and 6th against the run.  The Cowboys were 2nd against the pass but 19th against the run.  Neither side are particularly impressive in the passing game although they both have decent quarterbacks and receivers who could do a job if called upon.  In the running games, the Bears are comfortably better. 

The two quarterbacks have 9 interceptions between them and it is quite a worrying for the playoff hopes of the two sides.  Cutler has 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.  Romo has 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.  The two are in tough divisions and they won't get into the playoffs with that amount of turnovers.  The Bears have a dangerous looking running attack with Matt Forte and Michael Bush.  Forte looks like being back for this game and if the Bears offensive line can play their part then they should run the ball well against the Cowboys.  The Cowboys running game relies heavily on DeMarco Murray.  Murray has had a decent season so far but he isn't getting the required help from his team mates. 

Prediction - I think the Bears could come out on top in this game and pick up the win. 

Sunday, 30 September 2012

NFL Week 4 - Preview

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are looking for their 5th consecutive victory over the Panthers, when the teams go head to head today.  They have had a good start, winning all 3 games.  The Falcons have a great passing game.  Matt Ryan has had a good start and he has 3 top class receivers to throw too.  Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are all great options.  The Falcons haven't got their running game going as well as they'd like to, but Michael Turner is a good rusher and the Panthers have struggled against the run, so Turner should have a good day.  The Panthers haven't looked great so far and are 1-2.  A loss today would leave them 3 games behind in the division, so a win is a must if they have playoff aspirations.  The running game has been quite poor so far when you consider the talent at their disposal.  Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert are all good rushers.  Jonathan Stewart could also be back for this game.  The Falcons rank 24th against the run so if the Panthers are to win, they need to get their running game going.

Prediction -
The Falcons to keep their winning run going.


New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
This is a huge game in the battle for the AFC East.  The Pats have started 1-2 and the Bills are 2-1.  A Bills win today would put them 2 games ahead of New England.  It's very early in the season but it would be a great place for the Bills to find themselves, a quarter of the way into the season.  The Pats have lost their two games by a combined total of 3 points but regardless of how close they were, they still have 2 losses on their record.  On paper, the Pats look quite good, certainly on offense.  They rank 9th in passing and 11th in rushing.  It's not brilliant but it's good for a team sitting at 1-2.  The Pats had a bad year defensively last year but they have improved on that last year.  They are doing particularly well against the run, ranking 7th.  Their pass defense could be improved on though, ranking 24th.  The Bills have relied heavily on their running game, with CJ Spiller being the star man.  Spiller came in as a replacement for the injured, Fred Jackson.  Spiller has taken his chance but he picked up an injury last week and is listed as questionable.  Jackson is also listed as questionable.  If the Bills are to win this game, they need their running game to be at full strength and unfortunately for them it doesn't look like it is.  I just can't see Ryan Fitzpatrick winning this game for the Bills against an angry Pats and with a banged up rushing attack, against an improved Pats defense, there's only going to be one winner.

Prediction -
New England to blow away the cobwebs and get the win.


Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

Another big divisional game were a team,expected to have a good year find themselves at 1-2 against a "lesser" rival at 2-1.  The Vikings have been surprisingly good so far.  Christian Ponder has been particularly impressive, throwing 4 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions.  If I'm honest, Ponder is a quarterback who I didn't expect to do well, but he has looked good so far.  Adrian Peterson is also helping out by putting up some respectable numbers, since returning from a serious injury.  The Lions rank top in passing yards but Matt Stafford has been a bit sloppy and has more interceptions, than touchdowns.  He picked up an injury last week but it looks as though he will start this week.  The stats show these teams are quite close, with the only real difference being passing yards but if Stafford can't stop throwing interceptions then you can have as many long drives as you like but unless you keep the ball away from the defense, then you won't win games.

Prediction -
At the start of the year I would have predicted a Lions blowout.  I still think the Lions will win but I think the Vikings will run them close. 


San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Another two divisional rivals, who rank quite similarly and it looks like making this game an intriguing match up.  The Chargers have had the better start but they suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of the Falcons last week.  The Chiefs picked up their first win of the season with Jamaal Charles running all over the Saints.  The Chiefs are ranked as the number 1 rushing team this year but the Chargers are ranked as 4th in run defense, so it looks as though the winner of that battle will grab a vital edge in the game.  The Kansas offense has been quite impressive so far, averaging 442 yards per game.  Home advantage seems to be a key factor in this game, with the last 5 all being won by the home team. 

Prediction -
The AFC West's momentum shift to continue this week with a Chiefs win.


Seattle Seahawks @ St Louis Rams


Seattle are one of the best defenses in the league.  On offense, they rank 32nd in passing but 6th in rushing.  They have the look of the old classic, strong defense and strong running game.  Nowadays the NFL is a passing league so it's questionable how far that style will take you but for old school football fans, this Seahawks teams are a breath of fresh air.  The Rams aren't much better at passing the ball but their running game and defense are considerably worse.  The Rams could be without their key running-back, Steven Jackson for this game.  He is listed as questionable with a groin injury.  Home advantage will obviously give the Rams a bit of an edge but I am struggling to see how else they can get an advantage in the game.  The Seahawks defense should be able to stifle this Rams offense and then the games in the hands of Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. 

Prediction -
The Seahawks should be able to win this one.


San Francisco 49ers @ New York Jets


This is a huge game for the 49ers after last weeks loss in Minnesota.  The 49ers had a bad day and slipped to 2-1.  Many people thought the NFC West was a one horse race before the season started, myself included.  The Cardinals (3-0) and the Seahawks (2-1) look like decent teams and it looks as though the division has been underrated.  The Jets are 2-1 and quite how they beat the Dolphins last week is a mystery.  In my opinion, Mark Sanchez is simply not good enough and his pass completion for the season so far sits at just over 50%.  The Jets defense took a huge hit last week, losing Darrelle Revis with a torn ACL.  He hasn't been placed on Injured Reserve yet but surely his season is done.  Rex Ryan is the master of defensive schemes and he needs to come up with something special to make up for the loss of Revis.  The 49ers are one of the NFL's best teams and the key to this game will be putting the ball in Frank Gore's hands and letting him run against the 28th ranked, run defense in the league.

Prediction -
The 49ers find a way to get it done against a poor Jets side.


Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
The Texans look like one of the best teams in the NFL at the moment and this is a great match up for them.  The Titans have a poor defense, ranking 30th against the pass and 29th against the run.  Houston are 5th at running the ball and they have the tools to throw the ball if they need to.  The Titans are 1-2 after winning last week against the Lions in a thriller.  Despite that win, the Titans will still be concerned about the form of running-back, Chris Johnson.  Johnson is averaging just 1.4 yards per carry and the last thing he needs to see is the Texans defense.  The Texans have 3 tough battles ahead of them before their bye week, so they will be looking to get this game won early, so they can look to the tougher battles that lie ahead. 

Prediction -
The Texans in a blowout. 


Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Another divisional battle between two AFC West teams.  These two have both started 1-2 and will be looking to get back to .500 with a win today.  The Raiders have a great record in Denver and have won four straight.  Oakland have done well when passing the ball but have struggled with their running game.  Darren McFadden is listed as probable for the Raiders so even if he does play it's hard to see him making a big impact as he's obviously not at 100%.  Peyton Manning is facing some questions about his arm strength after his injury last year.  Manning has been far from his best since moving to Denver and it's hard to judge whether he is struggling physically or whether he is still struggling to settle into a new team after a year of injury.  The coming weeks will tell a story but in my experience, it is never a good idea to write off a Manning.

Prediction -
I think the Broncos end the Raiders recent dominance at Mile High with a win. 


Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are getting it done right now and sit at 3-0 after good wins over the Pats and Eagles in the last 2 weeks.  Kevin Kolb has done well since coming in for the injured John Skelton and he has 4 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions.  The Cardinals defense have been doing well and have led the team to a great start.  The Dolphins are struggling with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback.  In his 3 games, Tannehill has just 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions.  The Dolphins have been led by Reggie Bush's rushing abilities.  He has been fantastic so far but a knee injury sees him listed as questionable, for this game.  It's hard to see what the Dolphins will do if Bush misses this game.  Arizona is a tough place to play but with a rookie quarterback in bad form and without your star running-back, it gets a whole lot tougher. 

Prediction -
Unbelievably, the Cards will go 4-0 with a win here.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Bengals are quite possibly, the best team to watch in the NFL.  AJ Green is an excellent receiver and he has managed to catch almost one third of quarterback, Andy Dalton's completed passes.  The Bengals have a lot of young talent and look like a team who are going in the right direction and could be genuine Superbowl contenders within a few years.  The Jags on the other hand are the opposite.  They're not a great team to watch and they're not really in the business of getting things done, on the field either.  Blaine Gabbert has done ok this year when called upon.  He has 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions but he will have to improve on his completion percentage.  He is currently just over 50% and that's not good enough.  Maurice Jones-Drew is improving week by week and carries most of the Jags hopes on his shoulders. 

Prediction -
The explosive Bengals to have too much for the Jags.


New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
At the start of the season there would have been quite a few people looking at this as a possible NFC Championship game.  The Packers are 1-2 but I would expect them to come good and be a serious contender in the NFC.  The Saints on the other hand, look more likely to be a contender for the number 1 draft pick.  Drew Brees is putting up some big yards but he has 5 interceptions to go with his 7 touchdowns.  The rushing game hasn't been great either but the biggest problem is the defense.  Right now, it look as though their run defense is there, purely for decoration.  They are giving up over 200 yards a game on the ground.  The teams they have played are 0-6 in the other games they've played this year.  It's not been a difficult schedule and the Packers are the best team they'll have faced so far, so it looks like 0-4 is beckoning.  The Packers have their own issues right now.  They aren't protecting Aaron Rodgers and it's hurting them.  Rodgers has been excellent in the past two seasons but now that he is coming under pressure, he is struggling to make an impact.  He isn't getting a lot of support from his running game either, with leading rusher, Cedric Benson, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry.

Prediction -
The Packers will win this one easily against a bad Saints team.


Washington Redskins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The match ups in this game are fantastic and it looks like being an interesting game.  These two rank 31st (Redskins) and 32nd (Bucs) in pass defense.  The Bucs are 30th in passing and the Redskins are 21st.  The Redskins rank 2nd in rushing but the Bucs rank 1st in run defense.  The Bucs are 21st in rushing and the Redskins are 9th in run defense.  I don't think the Bucs being 30th in passing is entirely accurate.  If they put the ball in Josh Freeman's hands, he is good enough to win them the game.  He has a few good receivers and I think his form will pick up in the coming weeks.  RG3 has shown signs that he can be a decent passer too, so it might be in his best interest to try to spend more time in the pocket this week.  If he can avoid the sacks that hurt the Redskins last week, then he can do enough to lead his side to victory.

Prediction - I think this is a tough game to call but I have a suspicion that the Redskins will edge it.


New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have turned the ball over on 12 occasions in their 3 games so far.  4 turnovers a game is a ridiculous figure and it is simply not good enough.  Turnovers aside the Eagles have been playing well but all the good work is being undone by silly mistakes.  The Giants have bounced back from a bad start, winning their last 2 games.  Eli Manning has thrown for over 1000 yards and the Giants are looking dangerous.  The Eagles have a great record in this game, winning 7 of the last 8 but there looks to be a considerable gap between the sides right now and it's the Giants who look like the dominant force in the NFC East.   

Prediction -
The Giants to pick up the win.


Bye Weeks -
Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers


Monday Night Football - Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys -
I will do an extended preview of this game tomorrow.

Thursday, 27 September 2012

Thursday Night Football - Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens



This is a terrible match up for the Browns.  The last thing you want when you are 0-3, is a game against a team who are on an 8 game winning streak in the division and a 13 game winning streak at home (including a playoff win).  The Browns aren't getting it done in any phase of the game and look like the worst team in the league.  They have yet to win a game this year and face a huge task if they want to do anything about that tonight. 

The usually strong Ravens defense hasn't been great this year.  They rank 28th against the pass and 18th against the run.  The trouble is, the Browns offense doesn't rank much higher.  They are 23rd in passing and 26th in rushing.  To beat the Ravens, the Browns will most likely have to attack them in the air but when your rookie quarterback has twice as many interceptions as touchdowns, in his three games then it would take a gutsy coach to put the ball in his hands.  Add in the fact that your number one receiver, Mohamed Massaquoi is out and it becomes mission impossible. 

The Ravens have a different look about them this year.  Normally they have a dominant defense and a strong running game but this year, it's actually their passing game that ranks highest.  The Ravens are averaging over 300 passing yards a game.  Before this season, Joe Flacco was averaging 215.9 yards per game and his best season saw him throw for 3622 yards, back in 2010.  If Flacco can sustain his current level of performance, he would end this season with 4869 yards.  As good as Baltimore's passing game has been, they still have a more than capable rushing attack.  Ray Rice is as good a running-back as anyone in the NFL.  He is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and has ran in 3 touchdowns.  The only thing holding Rice back at the moment is his lack of carries.  He has only had 46 carries in his 3 games, although he has been targeted on 20 passing plays and has caught 14 of those, for 127 yards. 

Looking at this game from a fantasy standpoint, it looks as though most of the Ravens offense could be good selections.  The statistics suggest that Joe Flacco and the Baltimore receivers would be good picks this week but I'm not so sure.  I think they will have a strong first half but I expect the game to be a blow out and if the Ravens are ahead by a comfortable scoreline from early on, it is likely, they will run the ball a bit more.  I know it's not exactly headline news but in that scenario, Ray Rice should put up some big numbers.  The only danger will be if they pull him out of the game when the game is won, although Rice would most likely want to stay in the game to bulk up his numbers, in order to win the rushing title at the end of the year.

Prediction -
It has to be a Ravens blow out.