UEFA Champions League - Celtic v Spartak Moscow Preview

Celtic finish their Champions League group stage campaign tonight and they still have a great chance of qualifying for the knockout stage for the first time since the 2007/08 season.  The equation is simple, Celtic have to get a better result at home to Spartak Moscow than Benfica get away to Barcelona.  Barcelona are already through to the last sixteen and will rest Javier Mascherano, Jordi Alba, Xavi, Andres Iniesta , Cesc Fabregas and Pedro Rodriguez.  Having said that, Barcelona will still have a strong squad to choose from and they have a great record against Portuguese teams at home, winning their last ten.

Celtic cannot afford to worry about what happens in Spain and must concentrate on doing their own job.  Spartak Moscow have had a bad campaign but on their day they can cause problems.  Celtic won in Moscow which kick started this campaign and another win should be enough to take the hoops through. 

In the last game I believe Neil Lennon got the tactics wrong.  The win over Barcelona gave him the confidence to think he could go to Portugal and play 4-4-2.  The difference between the Benfica style and the Barcelona style is width.  Benfica play with wingers who have their heels on the touchline.  Barca don't rely on wingers and play a much more narrow style.  Even when they get the ball out wide, nine times out of ten they'll play it back to the edge of the box.  Against Barcelona Celtic played 4-4-1-1 and defended their own half and the width of the penalty box.  The 4-4-1-1 meant for much of the game they had ten men behind the ball, defending a relatively small area.  Against Benfica Celtic had to defend the full width of the pitch and the 4-4-2 meant they only had nine men behind the ball.  With less bodies and a larger area to cover, Celtic found it very difficult to contain Benfica.  Both sides dominated possession against Celtic but Benfica carried a bigger threat in the attacking third as they had more spaces to exploit.

In tonights game I would like to see Lennon return to the 4-4-1-1 that has served us so well in Europe this year.  I know it's a home game but I just don't think 4-4-2 works any more on the European or international stage.  The teams from mainland Europe are all technically better than the teams from UK/Ireland.  We see it in Europe all the time and England and Ireland experienced it in the Euros.  These sides all line up with one thing in common, three central midfielders.  It might be 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1, 4-5-1 but almost always, they will have three players in that area.  Most games are dominated by whoever wins the midfield and my opinion is if your opponents are technically superior footballers you have to try to win the physical battle.  No matter how physical your two central midfielders are, it's going to be an impossible task to win over three men.  The opposition will always have a spare man and they have the ability to find him.  Your two players are going to be chasing shadows and will quickly become ineffective.  Celtic need to line up with a forward player in a deeper role and they have a perfect player for that job in Georgios Samaras.  Samaras is quick enough to break out from midfield when Celtic win back possession and he is a great option to have as an out ball.  If Celtic use him right, I think Samaras could be the difference between winning and losing. 

The line up I would go with is as follows.  Frazer Forster is an obvious choice in nets and the back four will most likely be Mikael Lustig, Emilio Izaguirre, Efe Ambrose and Kelvin Wilson.  The midfield will pose the biggest problem for Neil Lennon but I would expect him to line up with Scott Brown, Joe Ledley, Beram Kayal and Charlie Mulgrew.  I've already mentioned Samaras in an attacking midfield role and I would play him just behind Gary Hooper who was fantastic in Moscow.  The only other option would be starting Kris Commons ahead of Beram Kayal and playing him on the right wing and putting Brown in the middle but I would expect Kayal to start.  I expect to see Commons come on for Scott Brown at some stage but I prefer him coming off the bench on European nights.  The suspended, Victor Wanyama, will be a huge loss for Celtic and everyone will have to give a little bit extra to compensate for his absence.  Wanyama has been outstanding this season and has been instrumental in getting Celtic to this point.

Win, lose or draw tonight I hope the Celtic fans get behind the team and we don't see a repeat of the criticism Neil Lennon has had to endure from his own support.  People have short memories and a wee bit of success goes to their head.  The league form has been poor but Celtic are most definitely not the first team to struggle to be competitive domestically and in Europe.  Better teams than Celtic have struggled to juggle the two competitions and with our former rivals no longer with us, we can afford to put all our eggs into the European basket for a few months.  Celtic are in a much better position than we were when Neil Lennon was appointed and in my opinion he is doing a fantastic job.  Lennon's team is a work in progress and this Champions League campaign will have made them better players and I can see bright futures in football for quite a few of the squad.      

When the Champions League draw was made I set a target of European football after Christmas.  We have already guaranteed that so let's raise the bar a little and lift the target to Champions League football after Christmas.  Either way Neil Lennon and his team have done themselves proud this year and I for one will never forget the joy and relief when that final whistle blew at Celtic Park on 7th November 2012.