Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Sunday's AFC wildcard game is similar to Saturday's as the wild card team come into it in better form. The Colts have won five of their last six games and the Ravens have only won one of their last five.
Indianapolis did finish with a better record than the Ravens this season but the Texans were even better and won the AFC South which meant the Colts had to rely on a wildcard. It has been a remarkable turnaround from the Colts after they finished last year as the worst team in the NFL. They got rid of a lot of their older players last year and brought in youngsters in an attempt to build for the future. I'm sure when they were building this team they would have set a target of a playoff place in two or three years time but they have managed to get their within a year and the future looks bright for the Colts and rookie quarterback, Andrew Luck.
The Colts were very good at home, winning seven games and they managed to finish .500 on the road to secure the number five seed in the AFC. The Colts had a decent record against playoff teams in the regular season, winning three of their five games. The one worry for the Colts is that all three wins came at home and their two defeats came on the road. The problem for the Colts is they hold the fifth seed so they will have to go on the road in the playoffs and will find it difficult.
The Colts were all about Andrew Luck. Everything good that they done, involved the rookie. Their passing game was ranked 7th in the NFL. They were in the bottom half in all the other statistics. Their running game was 22nd, their pass defense was 21st and their run defense was 29th. Andrew Luck didn't even get much help from his offensive line as they allowed 41 sacks which was the 10th worst record in the league. This resulted in turnovers and the Colts gave the ball away 27 times. The defense wasn't great either and they only managed to force 15 turnovers all year and sack the opponents quarterback 32 times.
The Ravens are in poor form and a few weeks ago they were in the race to earn a bye in the wildcard round but four defeats in five games has saw them drop to the AFC's fourth seed. The Ravens finished the season with a 10-6 record, which saw them win six at home and four on the road. Against playoff teams they have gone 2-3. Both of their wins came at home and they went 0-2 on the road.
This Ravens team hasn't been great all season and in my opinion they are underusing Ray Rice. Rice is an elite running-back but I don't think he got a big enough workload in the regular season. Having said that, the Ravens have made it to the playoffs without pushing him too hard and I expect him to be busy on Sunday. Rice is built to play playoff football and if the Ravens are to do well, they will have to give him as much of the ball as they can.
The Ravens biggest strength this year was taking care of the football. They turned the ball over on 16 occasions which is tied for the second best record in the league. The Ravens defense isn't as strong as it has been in recent seasons. They rank 17th against the pass and 20th against the run. They have produced 37 sacks this year which is 15th in the league. In recent years the Ravens have always had a tough defense but this particular unit isn't quite at the high level we are used to seeing from Ravens defenses.
Prediction - This will be a tight game between two sides who regardless of Sunday's results, I can't see progressing beyond the divisional round. I think these are the weakest sides in the AFC playoffs and would take any of the other four teams to beat them. The Colts are quite one dimensional and will throw the ball. They aren't great at protecting their quarterback but then again the Ravens haven't been known for their pass rush this year. My worry for the Colts is turnovers. Andrew Luck has thrown 18 interceptions this year and it is a massive problem for the Colts. I have gone on about teams taking care of the football all year and while I was looking at the statistics during the week I found a very interesting one. In both the AFC and the NFC, the five teams who have turned the ball over the least have reached the playoffs. That's five out of the six teams in each Conference which only underlines how important it is to take care of the football in the NFL. For those interested, the two teams who made the playoffs despite being outside the top five in this category were the Colts and the Vikings. If I was coaching the Ravens my game plan would be simple. Give the ball to Ray Rice and let him run all over the 29th run defense in the league. To this point John Harbaugh hasn't given Rice a huge workload but I think he will give him the ball in this game and it will lead to a Baltimore win.
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Washington Redskins (10-6)
The wildcard round finishes with a battle between two of the NFL's most exciting rookie quarterbacks. Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III have set the NFL alight this year with some spectacular plays and it seems fitting that they should face off for a place in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Seattle have reached this point with an 11-5 record and they have looked excellent in recent weeks, winning seven of their last eight games. Seattle were perfect at home, winning all eight games. They weren't as impressive on the road though and went 3-5. The Seahawks played against five playoff teams in the regular season and won four of the games, with their only loss coming in a tight game in San Francisco. Seattle's five defeats were all tight and their biggest loss was by seven points in that defeat to the 49ers.
Seattle look like a good old fashioned playoff team. They have the strong defense and the strong running game that used to be the criteria to win a Superbowl so it will be interesting to see how they get on in what has become a passing league. The Seahawks finished 3rd in rushing and their defense were 6th against the pass and 10th against the run. The passing game wasn't great and ranked 27th in the league but that was more to do with the play calling. Russell Wilson completed 64.1% of his passes and the Seahawks simply preferred to run the ball and the low rank is not a reflection on Wilson's play. Wilson ended the regular season with 26 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions which is a respectable ratio. The Seahawks also done well in relation to turnovers. The offense gave the ball away 18 times and the defense forced 31 turnovers, both of which were the 4th best records in the NFC.
The Redskins gave up a lot to trade up in the 2012 draft to take Robert Griffin III but he has repaid them with a playoff place and an NFC East title in his rookie season. RG3 is a special player and will surely go on to win multiple titles. He had a bit of a mixed start and although he was playing well, the Redskins weren't getting the results. They were 3-6 and looked to be heading towards another bad season but things clicked into place for them and they won their last seven games to finish 10-6 and take the divisional title. The Redskins faced four playoff teams this year, all at home. They split the four games, beating Minnesota and Baltimore but losing to Cincinnati and Atlanta.
The Redskins were all about the running game this year and rookie duo, RG3 and Alfred Morris led the team to an average of 169 yards per game on the ground. They also done better than any other team in the league in what I would describe as the most important statistic in football, turnovers. The Redskins turned the ball over just 14 times and that is a remarkable statistic for a team with a rookie quarterback. The Redskins defense were good at defending the run and ranked 5th in the league. They weren't so good at defending the pass though and ranked 30th. This was partially because they were unable to get a lot of pressure on the opposing quarterback. They picked up 32 sacks which was 23rd in the league. Their strength on defense was picking off the opposing quarterbacks and they had 21 interceptions.
Prediction - This game looks like being a cracker. Both offenses are a pleasure to watch and if nothing else at least we are guaranteed at least one more week of either RG3 or Wilson. Both sides will favour the run and both also have strong run defenses. Seattle seem to be trusting Wilson more and more as the season goes on and with receivers like Sidney Rice and Golden Tate on the field they can take advantage of a poor Washington pass defense. On paper, the Seahawks are the better team and I think they will get the win to keep their Superbowl dreams alive.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
AFC
Wildcard RoundHouston Texans over the Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens over the Indianapolis Colts
Divisional Round
Denver Broncos over the Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots over the Houston Texans
AFC Championship
Denver Broncos over the New England Patriots
NFC
Wildcard RoundGreen Bay Packers over the Minnesota Vikings
Seattle Seahawks over the Washington Redskins
Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks over the Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers over the San Francisco 49ers
NFC Championship
Green Bay Packers over the Seattle Seahawks
SUPERBOWL
Denver Broncos over the Green Bay Packers
NFL PLAYOFF CHALLENGE
This is your final chance to join the blog's private league in this year's NFL Playoff Challenge. Just click the following link.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
Showing posts with label NFL Playoff Challenge. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL Playoff Challenge. Show all posts
Saturday, 5 January 2013
Friday, 4 January 2013
NFL PLAYOFFS - Saturday's Wildcard Games
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) @ Houston Texans (12-4)
The NFL playoffs kick off on Saturday night with an AFC clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Houston Texans.
The Bengals are the AFC's sixth seed but they come into this game in better form than the Texans. Cincinnati have won seven of their last eight to reach the playoffs, including their last four on the road. Going on the road won't be a problem for this Bengals team as they have a better record than they do at home. They are 6-2 on the road and 4-4 at home. The Bengals faced four of their fellow playoff teams in the regular season and had a 2-2 record (1-1 home and 1-1 road).
As good as the Bengals were on offense, their defense is the main reason they are in the playoffs. They ranked 7th in pass defense and 12th against the run. They also sacked the opposition's quarterback 51 times (3rd most in the NFL) and forced 30 turnovers (2nd most in the AFC). The offense has built on the success of the defense, ranking 17th in passing and 18th in rushing. A key part to this game will be how the Bengals offensive line copes with the Texans pass rush. The Bengals have allowed 46 sacks this year which is 26th in the league. The Texans have sacked the opposing quarterback on 44 occasions and it something the Bengals will have to deal with.
Houston come into this game as the AFC's third seed but it's not something they will be proud of. The Texans led the AFC all year but three defeats in their last four games has saw them drop below Denver and New England, who now occupy the top two seeds and have the bye week that comes with it. The Texans have no time to feel sorry for themselves and have to sort the issues quick or their season will be over.
Houston started the season very well and looked like the best team in the league. However, the bye week seemed to kill off the momentum they had built up and although they still won more than they lost, the level of performance dropped around that time. Over the course of the season the Texans played seven of their playoff rivals, winning only three and losing four.
Statistically, the Texans had a good year. The offense was 11th in passing and 8th in rushing. The defense was 16th against the pass and 7th against the run. The defense sacked the opposing quarterback 44 times (5th in the NFL) and they managed to force 29 turnovers (3rd in the AFC). The offensive line done a good job this year and only allowed 28 sacks which was 7th best in the league. The offense done a good job of taking care of the football and only gave the ball away 17 times (3rd in AFC).
Prediction - This is a tough one to call. Both sides are good on defense and sacking the quarterback is a strong point for both of them. Houston look to be better at protecting their quarterback than the Bengals so they should have the edge in that area. Cincinnati's chances will rest heavily on the availability of running-back, BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He is questionable for the game and if he doesn't play it would mean the Bengals will be a one dimensional offense. The Texans also have the edge in the turnovers battle, having turned the balled over nine times less than the Bengals. Ultimately, my decision is do I go with the in-form team or the better team? If both teams bring their best game, the Texans will win. They haven't been in great form but this is the time of year when you win or you go home. With everything on the line, I think the Texans will get it done and set up a trip to New England next weekend.
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ Green Bay Packers (11-5)
These NFC North rivals face off for the second week in a row in the NFC's opening playoff game on Saturday night. Last week the Vikings were at home and they got the win they needed to secure a playoff place. Minnesota's win combined with the 49ers win meant the Packers dropped to the third seed in the NFC and set up this game between two big rivals.
Minnesota were 6-6 but won their last four to earn a playoff place. The Vikings got to the playoffs mostly because of a good home record where they won seven of their eight games. They didn't fare so well on their travels and they finished 3-5 on the road. In fairness to them, their five defeats were to four teams who reached the playoffs and the Bears who would have got there if the Vikings had lost any of those last four games. The Vikings final record against playoff teams was 3-4 although two of those wins were at home and as the sixth seed, the one thing I can guarantee is the Vikings won't host any playoff games.
The Vikings biggest asset this season was Adrian Peterson who got to within nine yards of beating the single season rushing record set by Eric Dickerson in 1984. There's every chance Peterson will break that record before the end of his career but if he doesn't and after his playing days are finished, he will no doubt be gutted at missing the record by such a small margin. Peterson already has his place in history as one of the greatest running-back's of all time but to break the record would have increased his legacy further.
Peterson aside, the Vikings statistics weren't overly impressive. Their passing game was 31st overall, the defense was 24th against the pass and the run defense was 11th. They forced just 22 turnovers (12th in the NFC) and turned the ball over themselves on 23 occasions (9th in the NFC). One of their strengths was the pass rush and they sacked the quarterback 44 times which was 5th in the league.
Green Bay finished the season 11-5 and won the NFC North. If they had won last week in Minnesota this game would be between the San Francisco 49ers and the Chicago Bears. However, the Packers lost and it allowed the San Francisco 49ers to pass them and earn a bye as the NFC's two seed. The Packers are in reasonable form, having won four in a row prior to last week's defeat. Like the Vikings they had a good home record and also won seven of their eight home games. The difference between the sides was the Packers picked up an extra win on the road to finish 4-4. The Packers didn't have a great record against teams who reached the playoffs, winning just two of their six games.
This Packers side relies a lot on Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. Rodgers is a fantastic quarterback and when he is on song, he is the best in the league. The one problem he has had this year is getting protection from his offensive line. The Packers have allowed 51 sacks and only the Arizona Cardinals have allowed more. Their defense have been doing their best to counteract this and have managed to pick up 47 sacks which is 4th best in the NFL. One thing the Packers have been very good at is taking care of the football. They have turned the ball over on just 16 occasions this season which is tied for second best in the league.
Prediction - The Packers are the better side here but they two issues. They need to stop Adrian Peterson and they need to keep Aaron Rodgers on his feet. In the two games this year with the Vikings they haven't done a great job of either. Adrian Peterson has ran for a total of 409 yards, two touchdowns and he also caught a touchdown pass in the week 17 game. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked a total of 7 times in the two games and the Packers can't afford that number to increase much higher. These two sides have a clear identity and it just happens that both teams preference on offense, is the other teams weakness on defense. The Vikings have the 2nd ranked running game in the league and they will go up against a Packers run defense that ranked 17th. The Packers will look to pass the ball and their passing game ranked 9th in the regular season. The Vikings pass defense was 24th in the NFL so they will struggle to cope with Aaron Rodgers if he finds his form. Generally teams will give a little bit more in the playoffs and if both teams play to their potential, which I think they will, then the Packers will win this one.
NFL Playoff Challenge
It is not too late to join my league on nfl.com. The NFL Playoff Challenge is a great game and fun to play. If you already have a team, just click the link at the end of this paragraph to enter. If you haven't already set up a team, I would encourage you to do so.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
The NFL playoffs kick off on Saturday night with an AFC clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Houston Texans.
The Bengals are the AFC's sixth seed but they come into this game in better form than the Texans. Cincinnati have won seven of their last eight to reach the playoffs, including their last four on the road. Going on the road won't be a problem for this Bengals team as they have a better record than they do at home. They are 6-2 on the road and 4-4 at home. The Bengals faced four of their fellow playoff teams in the regular season and had a 2-2 record (1-1 home and 1-1 road).
As good as the Bengals were on offense, their defense is the main reason they are in the playoffs. They ranked 7th in pass defense and 12th against the run. They also sacked the opposition's quarterback 51 times (3rd most in the NFL) and forced 30 turnovers (2nd most in the AFC). The offense has built on the success of the defense, ranking 17th in passing and 18th in rushing. A key part to this game will be how the Bengals offensive line copes with the Texans pass rush. The Bengals have allowed 46 sacks this year which is 26th in the league. The Texans have sacked the opposing quarterback on 44 occasions and it something the Bengals will have to deal with.
Houston come into this game as the AFC's third seed but it's not something they will be proud of. The Texans led the AFC all year but three defeats in their last four games has saw them drop below Denver and New England, who now occupy the top two seeds and have the bye week that comes with it. The Texans have no time to feel sorry for themselves and have to sort the issues quick or their season will be over.
Houston started the season very well and looked like the best team in the league. However, the bye week seemed to kill off the momentum they had built up and although they still won more than they lost, the level of performance dropped around that time. Over the course of the season the Texans played seven of their playoff rivals, winning only three and losing four.
Statistically, the Texans had a good year. The offense was 11th in passing and 8th in rushing. The defense was 16th against the pass and 7th against the run. The defense sacked the opposing quarterback 44 times (5th in the NFL) and they managed to force 29 turnovers (3rd in the AFC). The offensive line done a good job this year and only allowed 28 sacks which was 7th best in the league. The offense done a good job of taking care of the football and only gave the ball away 17 times (3rd in AFC).
Prediction - This is a tough one to call. Both sides are good on defense and sacking the quarterback is a strong point for both of them. Houston look to be better at protecting their quarterback than the Bengals so they should have the edge in that area. Cincinnati's chances will rest heavily on the availability of running-back, BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He is questionable for the game and if he doesn't play it would mean the Bengals will be a one dimensional offense. The Texans also have the edge in the turnovers battle, having turned the balled over nine times less than the Bengals. Ultimately, my decision is do I go with the in-form team or the better team? If both teams bring their best game, the Texans will win. They haven't been in great form but this is the time of year when you win or you go home. With everything on the line, I think the Texans will get it done and set up a trip to New England next weekend.
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ Green Bay Packers (11-5)
These NFC North rivals face off for the second week in a row in the NFC's opening playoff game on Saturday night. Last week the Vikings were at home and they got the win they needed to secure a playoff place. Minnesota's win combined with the 49ers win meant the Packers dropped to the third seed in the NFC and set up this game between two big rivals.
Minnesota were 6-6 but won their last four to earn a playoff place. The Vikings got to the playoffs mostly because of a good home record where they won seven of their eight games. They didn't fare so well on their travels and they finished 3-5 on the road. In fairness to them, their five defeats were to four teams who reached the playoffs and the Bears who would have got there if the Vikings had lost any of those last four games. The Vikings final record against playoff teams was 3-4 although two of those wins were at home and as the sixth seed, the one thing I can guarantee is the Vikings won't host any playoff games.
The Vikings biggest asset this season was Adrian Peterson who got to within nine yards of beating the single season rushing record set by Eric Dickerson in 1984. There's every chance Peterson will break that record before the end of his career but if he doesn't and after his playing days are finished, he will no doubt be gutted at missing the record by such a small margin. Peterson already has his place in history as one of the greatest running-back's of all time but to break the record would have increased his legacy further.
Peterson aside, the Vikings statistics weren't overly impressive. Their passing game was 31st overall, the defense was 24th against the pass and the run defense was 11th. They forced just 22 turnovers (12th in the NFC) and turned the ball over themselves on 23 occasions (9th in the NFC). One of their strengths was the pass rush and they sacked the quarterback 44 times which was 5th in the league.
Green Bay finished the season 11-5 and won the NFC North. If they had won last week in Minnesota this game would be between the San Francisco 49ers and the Chicago Bears. However, the Packers lost and it allowed the San Francisco 49ers to pass them and earn a bye as the NFC's two seed. The Packers are in reasonable form, having won four in a row prior to last week's defeat. Like the Vikings they had a good home record and also won seven of their eight home games. The difference between the sides was the Packers picked up an extra win on the road to finish 4-4. The Packers didn't have a great record against teams who reached the playoffs, winning just two of their six games.
This Packers side relies a lot on Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. Rodgers is a fantastic quarterback and when he is on song, he is the best in the league. The one problem he has had this year is getting protection from his offensive line. The Packers have allowed 51 sacks and only the Arizona Cardinals have allowed more. Their defense have been doing their best to counteract this and have managed to pick up 47 sacks which is 4th best in the NFL. One thing the Packers have been very good at is taking care of the football. They have turned the ball over on just 16 occasions this season which is tied for second best in the league.
Prediction - The Packers are the better side here but they two issues. They need to stop Adrian Peterson and they need to keep Aaron Rodgers on his feet. In the two games this year with the Vikings they haven't done a great job of either. Adrian Peterson has ran for a total of 409 yards, two touchdowns and he also caught a touchdown pass in the week 17 game. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked a total of 7 times in the two games and the Packers can't afford that number to increase much higher. These two sides have a clear identity and it just happens that both teams preference on offense, is the other teams weakness on defense. The Vikings have the 2nd ranked running game in the league and they will go up against a Packers run defense that ranked 17th. The Packers will look to pass the ball and their passing game ranked 9th in the regular season. The Vikings pass defense was 24th in the NFL so they will struggle to cope with Aaron Rodgers if he finds his form. Generally teams will give a little bit more in the playoffs and if both teams play to their potential, which I think they will, then the Packers will win this one.
NFL Playoff Challenge
It is not too late to join my league on nfl.com. The NFL Playoff Challenge is a great game and fun to play. If you already have a team, just click the link at the end of this paragraph to enter. If you haven't already set up a team, I would encourage you to do so.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)