The Managerial Merry Go Round

The football world has been dominated in recent weeks by news of managerial changes.

Sir Alex Ferguson started it all off by announcing his shock decision to retire as manager of Manchester United.  United moved quickly to appoint David Moyes as his replacement which created a vacancy at Everton.  I'm not totally convinced that Moyes is the right man for the job but most United fans seem happy with him and believe that he deserves a shot at one of the big jobs.

My own opinion is that United don't need to take a gamble on anyone.  They're one of the biggest clubs in the world and could have pretty much anyone they wanted.  For me Moyes is an unnecessary risk and they should have went for someone with a proven record who could guarantee success. Time will tell how good Moyes is but for me his record at Everton is pretty much par as he has them performing at the level I'd expect Everton to be at.

The Everton board now have to look at who they want to replace Moyes.  Much of the talk has been about Roberto Martinez and Neil Lennon.  Of those two Martinez would be a better appointment but I think he might give Wigan another year as he won't want to end his time there as the manager who got them relegated.

That leaves Neil Lennon but as a Celtic fan I don't think he would be a great appointment for Everton.  His stock was increased by the Champions League run but from watching Celtic every week I'm not convinced by him.  He seems to struggle to motivate the players in certain games and some of the changes he makes during games are bizarre. 

Whilst I don't think Everton should appoint him, the Celtic fan in me would love it to happen.  I love Neil Lennon and he will rightfully be remembered as a club legend for his time as a player.  He played and later captained us through what was a very successful period in our history but I genuinely don't think he has the right attributes to be a long term manager at Celtic.  If he were to take the Everton job he could leave Celtic with his head held high.  I would hate it if he stayed at the club and ended up being sacked as it's the last thing he deserves for all the years service but unless the domestic performances improve it is a realistic possibility.

The man who I would like to see get the Everton job is Gus Poyet.  Poyet has done a fine job since his playing days ended, coaching at Leeds and Tottenham before taking on the Brighton manager's job.  In his time at Leeds he assisted Dennis Wise and whether it was coincidental or not, there was a huge drop in fortunes when Poyet left for Tottenham.  Personally, I think it was no coincidence and that Poyet was the brains behind the operation but we will never know for sure. 

In his time at Brighton he has took them from being a relegation threatened League One club to the Championship playoffs.  His CV is almost identical to David Moyes' at this stage in his career.  Moyes took over a struggling Preston before guiding them to promotion and then losing in the playoffs for promotion to the Premier League.  The move may have been made a little easier too with the news that Poyet has been suspended as Brighton manager for a "breach of contract."  In one of his interviews after losing in the playoff semi-finals to Crystal Palace he commented on his future, indicating that he did not know whether or not he would be at Brighton next year.  It may be messy but it certainly looks like Poyet's time at Brighton is coming to an end and Everton would be perfect move for both parties.

Another big job up for grabs is Manchester City.  Roberto Mancini was sacked on Monday following City's FA Cup Final defeat to relegated, Wigan Athletic.  In my honest opinion it was only a matter of time before Mancini was sacked and I think the club will be better off without him.  Mancini earned a reputation as a top manager after winning three Serie A titles with Inter Milan.  When you read it like that it looks impressive.  However, the fact is he never won the first title.  Inter finished third that year but Juventus and AC Milan were deducted points after being caught up in a match fixing scandal which meant Inter were awarded the title.  The following season saw Juventus playing in Serie B and AC Milan beginning the year minus eight points and understandably Inter romped to the title.  In Mancini's final season at Inter, he won another title, narrowly edging Roma to the championship.  Juventus were still recovering from the effects of losing half their squad the season before and Milan's ageing squad was finally catching up on them. 

On paper, Mancini's three Serie A titles look impressive but when investigated a little further, the record really isn't as good as it seems.  He also struggled to make an impact in the Champions League and made the Quarter-Finals on just one occasion.  He was eventually sacked after the 2007/08 season and replaced by Jose Mourinho.  This decision was criticised by many at the time but Mourinho went onto win the Champions League in his second season so the Inter board were proven to be right in the end.

Since Mancini arrived in Manchester he was well backed by the owners who spent millions to give him all the tools he required to make City a top team not only in England but also in Europe.  In three and a half years he managed to pick up an FA Cup and the Premier League title but for the money he spent I don't think the City owners got value for money.  Once again his European record was terrible with City twice failing to make it out of the group stages of the Champions League.  Many will point to the groups they have been drawn into and there is no doubt they have had tough draws but for the money he has spent and the squad at his disposal it was nowhere near good enough.  Last year Bayern Munich and Napoli made it out of the group ahead of City.  Bayern Munich was fair enough but Napoli weren't world beaters and City should have been able to get the better of them.  This year people will say that Dortmund and Real Madrid went onto reach the Final and the Semi-Final which is a fair point but they finished bottom of the group behind those two and Ajax who went on to get knocked out of the Europa League by Steaua Bucharest. 

For me it was the right decision and thoughts now turn to who will replace him.  Manuel Pellegrini appears to be the hot favourite and I think he would be a decent man to get the nod.  His record since coming to Europe has been impressive.  In his time at Villarreal he took a small provincial club to the Champions League Semi-Final before losing out narrowly to Arsenal.  He also guided them to a second place finish in La Liga.  After leaving Villarreal he had a year at Real Madrid were he never done much wrong but just finished behind the best team in the world.  His Real Madrid team finished the year with ninety-six points which was a club record at the time but Barcelona managed ninety-nine to pip Madrid to the title.  After being released from Real Madrid he moved to Malaga.  Malaga were another provincial club but once again he managed to guide them to the Champions League and they were extremely unlucky to be knocked out by Borussia Dortmund after conceding two goals in stoppage time. 

Pellegrini is yet to be officially confirmed as City manager but it looks as though it's just a matter of time before he gets the job and if the board give him the financial backing they gave Mancini, I expect the trophy cabinet at Eastlands to have a few pots in it by the end of next season. 

The other big job opening in England is the poisoned chalice at Stamford Bridge.  The only thing Roman Abramovich loves more than winning trophies is appointing new managers and Chelsea will have yet another new man in the dugout when the 2013/14 season kicks off.  Rafa Benitez has done a decent job as interim manager, qualifying for next years Champions League and winning the Europa League but his position is untenable as he has a fractured relationship with the Chelsea fans which dates back to his time as Liverpool manager.  It's a pity as Benitez has done well and deserves a crack at it but there's no chance of it happening. 

The media and pretty much everyone in the footballing world seem to think that the job is Jose Mourinho's.  He has had a rough spell in Madrid and in typical Mourinho fashion he has clashed with players, media and fans.  It seems that he has decided that enough is enough and he will leave at the end of the season.  He always said he felt there was unfinished business at Chelsea and it looks as though he feels now is the time to go back and finish what he started. 

I am a big Mourinho fan but I do have a few reservations about this appointment.  Everyone knows about Mourinho's ego and for anyone that doesn't I've no doubt Jose himself would be only too happy to tell you how great he is.  The problem is Chelsea already have a huge ego at the club and Mourinho's biggest problem is the other big ego sits in the board room and is the guy who signs all the cheques.  It didn't work out between Mourinho and Abramovich the last time so why is it going to work this time?  As I see it, nothing has changed since last time.  If anything they've both got worse and I just don't see this story having a happy ending. 

If Mourinho does leave Real Madrid, that will be another huge job that needs a big name manager.  Rumour has it that Carlo Ancellotti may be in line to leave PSG to take it which in turn would leave another huge job to be filled. 

Whilst all this managerial merry go round is happening there is one man who I would like to see make a move to one of the bigger clubs.  That man is Borussia Dortmund manager, Jurgen Klopp.  Klopp has done an amazing job at Dortmund and many people will ask would he leave the Champions League finalists but with the news that Mario Gotze is leaving for Bayern Munich and rumours circulating that Ilkay Gundogan, Robert Lewandowski, Marco Reus and Mats Hummels could also be moving on you would wonder will Klopp want to rebuild the squad again.  Gotze on his own is a huge loss to Dortmund but if the others leave too then surely Klopp will have to consider his future.  The one thing standing in the way is Klopp seems to be one of the few in football who have loyalty and respect for their contracts but I just wonder how many more players he can afford to lose and still feel he can keep Dortmund competitive. 

Right now there seems to be more questions than answers and with the Premier League finishing this weekend there may be even more managerial casualties and as the weeks pass things should become a little clearer.  With new managers usually comes new signings so despite the fact that the league is coming to an end at the weekend, the real drama is just about to get under way. 

Celtic, What Now?

Celtic crashed out of the Champions League last week in Turin, as expected, but there's no reason that it should be all doom and gloom for the Scottish giants.  

It was a great year for Celtic in Europe and it has been a massive improvement on their recent adventures into Europe's top club competitions.  They hadn't reached the knock out stages of the Champions League since 2008 when they lost at the same stage to Barcelona.  In the years between there has been very little to celebrate.  In fact they have only progressed beyond two rounds in the last four seasons and one of those was when FC Sion were kicked out of the Europa League for fielding ineligible players.  It's easy to see why Hoops fans weren't brimming with confidence at the prospect of having to negotiate two qualifiers to earn a place in the group stages and a shot at the big boys.  

The campaign didn't have the best of starts when Celtic stuttered to a 2-1 home win over HJK Helsinki.  The doom and gloom merchants were out in full force talking about Celtic's poor away form and the importance of Helsinki's away goal.  Fortunately neither mattered as Celtic picked up a 2-0 win in Finland to put them into the Final qualifying round. Standing between Celtic and the group stages were Swedish champions,Helsingborgs.  The Hoops made light work of them and after a 2-0 win in Sweden they followed it up with another 2-0 win and Celtic were finally back in the big league for the first time since 2008.  

Celtic were handed a very tough draw in the group stages.  Club World Champions, Barcelona, Portuguese giants, Benfica and big spending Russians, Spartak Moscow.  Barcelona need no introduction, Benfica reached the quarter-finals last year and Spartak Moscow's squad included former Celtic star, Aiden McGeady.  On paper it looked like Celtic would do well to finish third in the group but Neil Lennon's men had other ideas. 

Celtic got off to a bad start drawing 0-0 at home to Benfica which had them on the back foot straight away.  However, a 3-2 win in Moscow got the dream back on track and left Celtic on four points from two games.  Next up was a double header with Barcelona.  Going into stoppage time in Camp Nou Celtic looked like earning an unlikely point but with the last kick of the game Jordi Alba netted from close range to break the hearts of Celtic fans all over the world.  In the home game things went a lot better and although Barcelona scored another goal in the dying minutes, Celtic were already 2-0 up by that stage and hung on for a famous victory.  Celtic travelled to Portugal in their penultimate game knowing a win would secure qualification to the knockout stages.  It wasn't to be though and Benfica ran out 2-1 winners to set up a nail biting finish to the group.  The equation was simple; Celtic needed to better Benfica's result in Barcelona in their home tie against Spartak Moscow. Benfica to their credit picked up a credible draw in Camp Nou but Celtic weren't to be denied and Kris Commons scored a late penalty to send Celtic into the last sixteen. 

The draw was once again tough on Celtic and they were pitted against Italian champions, Juventus.  Unfortunately, Celtic had met their match and Juventus ran out rather flattering winners with an aggregate score of 5-0. It was a tough game for Celtic and despite performing well for the majority of the tie Juventus had too much quality and progressed to the last eight.  

It was a fantastic experience for the team, the coaching staff and the fans. A lot of people will have a lot of happy memories from this year but it's gone now and I'm more interested in what happens next.  

It has become apparent since Neil Lennon has taken charge that the clubs transfer policy has changed.  For years Celtic have had a habit of signing older players with little or no sell on value.  Aside from a few free transfers in his first year in charge, Lennon has concentrated on bringing in younger players playing outside the top leagues with high potential.  This policy has saw players like Joe Ledley, Gary Hooper, Beram Kayal, Emilio Izaguirre,Fraser Forster, Tony Watt, Adam Matthews, Victor Wanyama and Efe Ambrose arrive at the club.  If anyone of those were to leave the club this summer,Celtic would see a handsome profit on their initial investment.

Many Celtic fans would like to see those players stay but unfortunately it doesn't work that way.  Some players will leave and the money generated from their sales will be reinvested into the next generation of young talent and a few of the current players will receive pay rises.  Whilst Celtic are in a solid financial position they are not in the position to throw silly money into transfer fees or players wages.  The majority of the other clubs in the last sixteen are paying individual players annual salaries in the same region as what this entire Celtic team cost to buy.  Teams in England's Premier League earn almost as much from the league's television deal as Celtic's entire annual turnover.  The numbers quite simply don't add up.  

Celtic as a club had to come up with a plan to maximise the clubs potential. Fortunately, they came up with a model similar in style to the one that Lyon used so successfully in the 2000s.  Lyon were in a similar situation, successful domestically but not making an impact on the European stage.  The club began developing young talent and after selling them on at a healthy profit, they reinvested in the next generation of young talent.  Some of this talent included names like Michael Essien, Florent Malouda, Juninho Pernambucano, Éric Abidal,Mahamadou Diarra and Karim Benzema.  Lyon enjoyed a great period of dominance in France as well as reaching three Champions League quarter-finals and a semi-final.  In their first year back in the Champions League, Celtic reached the last sixteen so I see absolutely no reason why reaching the Quarter-Finals in the next few seasons is out of the question.

As well as young talent on the pitch, Celtic also have a young management team. Manager, Neil Lennon is 41 and is assisted by Johan Mjallby (42) and Garry Parker (47).  If I'm completely honest I'm not 100% convinced by Neil Lennon.  I absolutely love the guy and regardless of how his managerial stint at the club turns out he has already earned his place in Celtic folklore but I find myself totally bemused at some of his decisions. In recent weeks he has made some increasingly bizarre decisions that I simply cannot agree with or even begin to understand. 

The biggest and possibly most costly mistake was the decision to play Efe Ambrose in the first leg against Juventus.  In hindsight it turned out to be a terrible decision but I can confirm that I am not simply jumping on the bandwagon.  I wrote a preview of the Juventus game and wrote "Efe Ambrose is a good player but I can't see how Celtic can put a player into the biggest game of the season who has had the lack of preparation that he has."  The Juventus game was the biggest of our season and the team won't have played the Inverness game on the Saturday and then started to prepare for the Juventus game.  They will have been preparing for that game for weeks and for all of that preparation, Ambrose was in South Africa representing his country.  I don't think many other managers would have played Ambrose in those circumstances and it was a gamble that backfired spectacularly. 

Another recent incident also involved Ambrose. He was substituted in the first half against Dundee.  He had made a few mistakes in that game and looked to be low on confidence. Celtic's following game was a top of the table clash with Motherwell.  The game was tight with the score at 1-1 when Lennon decided to bring on an out of form Ambrose.  If you want to build a players confidence the last thing you do is bring him into a big game like that.  Sure enough, Ambrose was at fault for the goal that saw Motherwell take the lead. Lennon still wasn’t finished though. Right after the goal he decided to put Victor Wanyama into defence and moved Ambrose into centre midfield.  At2-1 down Celtic were going to be pushing forward and needed their best players in more advanced positions.  I am completely baffled at what Lennon was thinking by effectively taking the one player who could drive the team forward out of his best position to play defence and replacing him with an out of form player whose confidence was at zero. 

Having said all this, in the European run Lennon did get his tactics spot on in most of the games.  I would argue that the Barcelona win went to his head a little and it led to him fielding a very attacking team against Benfica which led to us getting over ran in midfield which cost us at least a point but in the end it didn't matter.  He is a young manager and I genuinely hope he learns from these mistakes as I don't think there is a Celtic fan on the planet who could take any satisfaction in seeing Neil Lennon struggle as Celtic manager.  Nothing would please me more than in a few years time to be talking about how great a manager Neil Lennon is but as things stand the jury is still out.

Next up for Celtic is trying to secure a domestic double.  The league looks a certainty despite two league defeats in a row.  Celtic are fifteen points ahead of second placed Motherwell with just eight games remaining.  To be honest I would say Celtic have already got enough points to secure the title as the teams from second to eleventh are tightly grouped and have been taking points off each other on a regular basis.  To complete the double Celtic will have to beat Dundee Utd in the Scottish Cup Semi-Final and then the winners of Hibs v Falkirk in the Final. Obviously, Celtic will be hot favourites but there are no guarantees in Scottish football and Hibs in particular will fancy their chances as Celtic are yet to beat them in the SPL this season. 

This summer will inevitably see some players leaving.  I would expect Gary Hooper and Victor Wanyama to leave.  Both are exceptionally talented and in my opinion are ready to make the next step in their careers.  Celtic spent less than £3m to sign them and I would be expecting huge profits on both players.  The profits won't be as big as they may have been with both players contracts due to expire in 2014 but they should still pull in a combined fee in the region of £10-15m.  I would expect a good bit of that money to be reinvested but not necessarily on direct replacements.  Tony Watt looks like a younger version of Hooper and I would expect him to get more time on the pitch.  For Wanyama's place I would expect Beram Kayal to get an increased workload and the young Australian, Tom Rogic also looks to be one for the future.  Before Wanyama's arrival Kayal looked superb and he was being linked with some of the top clubs in the Premier League.  There's no reason why he can't rediscover that form if he gets regular games.

If newspaper reports are to be believed Celtic also face losing Joe Ledley, Fraser Forster and James Forrest in the summer. I don't think any of these players will leave this year.  Ledley's contract is up next year but unlike Hooper, he is already an established international and it's unlikely that he would get a move to one of the Champions League clubs so it’s in his best interests to stay at Celtic and I would expect to see him sign a new deal that will put him among the top earners at the club. Forster only signed for us permanently last summer and I would expect we will keep him for one more year at least. Forrest is still very young and I think his future in the game would benefit from another few years at Celtic. One player I think will leave is Efe Ambrose.  Things have turned into a nightmare for him since his return from international duty and I feel his indiscipline in Turin when he missed the bus to training will have been his last chance and going on his recent performances it's no big loss to Celtic. 

Even if Ambrose stays I think Celtic need to look to strengthen the defence,particular the central area.  Kelvin Wilson has progressed well in that position but other than Charlie Mulgrew, I have little faith in any of the other options. If we can bring in a decent centre-back and build from there, I'd be confident of another successful season among the cream of Europe's footballing giants.

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