After the excitement of last weekends Conference Championship Games, things slow down this week as the Pro Bowl takes place in Hawaii. I love American Football and believe that the NFL and the sport in general get a hell of a lot of things right but the Pro Bowl is the one exception.
I love the draft system. Giving the weaker teams first pick is excellent as it makes a level playing field. The salary cap is also excellent for the same reason. I love that the players are drafted from colleges as it means the kids who dream of making the NFL but don't make it at least have an education to fall back on. I would love to see a way that soccer in Europe could adopt this principle as there are so many kids who don't make it but have finished their education at 16 years old to go into football academies on a full time basis and therefore have little or no qualifications. The one thing I don't love, is the Pro Bowl.
In recent seasons the Pro Bowl has been moved to the week before the Superbowl. That for me was the final straw. Previously you had a game that the players and fans didn't really care between the league's top stars. Now you have a game that the players and fans don't really care about and you don't even have the very best players playing as they are preparing for the Superbowl. Honestly, what's the point? I understand that the players who are voted onto the Pro Bowl can use the fact that they are Pro Bowlers in leverage for better contracts but the players themselves would probably prefer it if it was just an award that was handed out at the end of the year rather than having to play a meaningless game when their season's over. For the players who have been involved in the playoffs it's not so bad but if your team hasn't made the postseason there will be players who won't have played in four weeks who will then be asked to play in the Pro Bowl. It's doing nothing other than eating into time that the players could be spending with their families or on holidays.
In other sports the equivalents are often played during the regular season. I've had a think about this and it wouldn't work in the NFL. There's just not enough games. If the Pro Bowl was mid season the voting would have to start in week 2 or 3 to get all the votes in, counted and announced prior to the game being played. That would be far too early and players who aren't necessarily fan favourites but have a good season, wouldn't get the recognition they deserve.
In my opinion, players deserve recognition for being among the best in their position in the league but think the players would prefer it to be some sort of compromise between the All-Pro teams and the Pro Bowl teams. I would start voting the day after the Superbowl and have three separate votes. One for journalists, one for players and one for fans. Each vote would be calculated as a percentage and added together. The top players in each position would be named as All-Stars, All-Pros or whatever you want to call them. You could go down the basketball route and have a first team, second team, third team or however many you want. This way the top players are still getting recognised but we don't have to sit through a meaningless game were players play at a maximum of 50%.
The players aren't interested, I don't know anyone who is really excited by the prospect of watching it and in Hawaii the game was close to being blacked out due to poor ticket sales. If the people of Hawaii were interested in the one chance they get a year to see NFL players in action, they would have sold out weeks ago. It seems to me that the only person who cares is Roger Goodell as it's simply another chance for him to get some more dollars into the bank before the season ends. For a man that talks so much about player safety, I can't understand why he is making the players play in a meaningless end of season game were the only thing the players care about is that they don't get injured. Would Roger Goodell stand in a field and let 300lb men hit him for no reason? No, I don't think he would either.
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Sunday 27 January 2013
Monday 21 January 2013
NFL - Championship Weekend Review
NFC - San Francisco 49ers 28-24 Atlanta Falcons
The San Francisco 49ers came from 17-0 down to beat the Atlanta Falcons and secure their first Superbowl appearance since 1994.
The 49ers started off very slowly and were 17-0 down early in the second quarter. They rallied after that though and got back to 17-14 but the Falcons got another touchdown before half-time to lead 24-14 at the break. The 49ers defense came up big in the second half though. The Falcons were unable to add to the 24 points they had scored in the first half and the offense got the two touchdowns that were required to complete the comeback.
The defeat will have left some mental scars on the Falcons as they threw away a big league for the second week in a row. Last week they were able to respond with a field goal to win the game but this week a field goal was no use and they needed to get the ball in the end zone but they were unable to get beyond the San Francisco 10 yard line. They got one final chance when the 49ers went three and out and were forced to punt. The Falcons had six seconds on the clock and the ball on their own 41. The play had to be a Hail Mary or some sort of a lateral play but instead the Falcons played a mid range pass to Julio Jones at the 49ers 35 and he was tackled instantly which ended the game. The Falcons had no timeouts left and the pass was played into the middle of the field so I have no idea what they were thinking of. That play summed up the Falcons entire second half and they never really looked likely to score until the drive just after the 49ers scored. Much of the criticism should be handed to the coaches. They were having some success early on by being aggressive on offense. Once they got into the lead they changed styles and tried to protect their lead. They had all the momentum and let it slip but they are not the first team to make that mistake and certainly won't be the last.
Matt Ryan had a mixed game. He threw for 396 yards and 3 touchdowns but he was also responsible for two bad turnovers. He was intercepted after throwing the ball straight to Chris Culliver and he also lost a fumble when he took his eyes off the ball on a shotgun snap. Turnovers aside, he was excellent but everyone knows that turnovers will cost you games and it was the case yesterday. The Falcons weren't great on the ground, picking up 81 yards from 23 running plays. The Falcons were once again led in the passing game by their three big stars, Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. Jones caught 11 passes for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns. White caught 7 passes for 100 yards and Gonzalez caught 8 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown.
The 49ers deserve a lot of credit for their performance. After falling behind so early many teams would have crumbled but the 49ers refused to panic. They stuck to their game plan and were rewarded with two touchdowns to get back to within three but conceded another touchdown just before the half to leave the deficit at ten points. They came out in the second half and continued to plug away and got the gap back to three points with a touchdown early in the third quarter. The teams then had a bit of a crazy spell were both had turnovers and the 49ers missed a field goal before San Francisco eventually took the lead thanks to a Vernon Davis touchdown with just over eight minutes remaining. The 49ers allowed the Falcons to get up the field but a field goal was no use at this stage and they managed to keep them out of the end zone to secure the win.
One man who deserves a lot of credit is quarterback, Colin Kaepernick. He had what I would say was the best game of his career. Everyone knows what he can do on the ground but I'm old fashioned and like a quarterback who can pass the ball. I've spent many an evening over the last month or two writing about how bad a passer he is so it's only right that I acknowledge how good he was in this game. He completed 16 of his 21 passes for 231 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers are very good but they don't do justice to how well he played. He left the running side of the game to the running-backs and stood in the pocket and made some fantastic passes. I have to be honest and say that I didn't think he had that kind of performance in him but he stepped up and played like a pure passer to lead his team to a Superbowl and I can't give him enough credit for that. He's still a young guy and if he can continue to improve as a passer and play with more consistency in that area, he could have a big career in the NFL. Other stars for the 49ers were Frank Gore who ran for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns from 21 carries and Vernon Davis who caught 5 passes for 106 yards and a touchdown.
For the Falcons, there will be a lot of soul searching in the off season. It looks as though Tony Gonzalez will retire which will be a big loss for them. They will also need to address what happened in these playoffs and why they gave away two big leads in their two games. In my opinion, it was bad coaching. They got themselves into good positions with aggressive play calling and then tried to hang onto the lead by relying on their defense and running game to kill time. Neither unit were good enough and the Falcons are at their best when they are going for the jugular and trying to beat teams instead of maintaining leads.
For the 49ers, it's two weeks of studying film, training, hard work and coming up with a plan to pick up a win in New Orleans in the Har-Bowl.
49ers Offensive Star : Colin Kaepernick - Vernon Davis and Frank Gore deserve this just as much but Kaepernick showed us a side to his game that we hadn't really saw before.
49ers Defensive Star : Patrick Willis - Twelve tackles including one for a loss was a good return from the linebacker.
Falcons Offensive Star : Julio Jones - Jones deserved to be in a Superbowl after picking up 182 yards and 2 touchdowns from his 11 catches.
Falcons Defensive Star : Thomas DeCoud - The Falcons safety made 8 tackles and also deflected a pass.
Baltimore Ravens 28-13 New England Patriots
The Baltimore Ravens secured an unlikely passage to the Superbowl after a big win over the New England Patriots last night. Nobody has earned a place in the Superbowl more than this Baltimore Ravens team. They came into the playoffs as the fourth seed and beat the Indianapolis Colts who had a better regular season record than them, the Denver Broncos who looked like the best team in the AFC by quite some distance and finally, the New England Patriots who have more experience of Championship games than any other team in recent years. I did expect them to prevail against the Colts but I gave them next to no chance against the Broncos and the Patriots and on both occasions they have gone into hostile atmosphere's and done the business.
Statistically the game was fairly tight but there were a few key differences between the sides and it turned out to be the difference between winning and losing. I have been banging on all year about turnovers and once again this game was evidence of the fact that it's very hard to win in this league if you turn the ball over. The Patriots turned it over three times and the Ravens managed to avoid any turnovers. The first turnover was costly as the Patriots were eight behind and had drove to midfield and then lost the ball to a fumble. Not content at stopping the Patriots from scoring, the Ravens turned the turnover into points and got a touchdown to extend their lead to fifteen points. The last two were interceptions when the Patriots were in desperation mode. The first was in Ravens territory and the Patriots looked like reducing the gap to eight points with around half the fourth quarter to play. Instead Tom Brady was picked off and the Ravens managed to drive down the field and take 4:44 off the clock. That left the Patriots fifteen behind and just over two minutes left. The Pats were moving the ball down the field but got intercepted again and that left the Ravens in the position were they could take two kneels to finish off the game. The other difference was their success in the red zone. The Ravens went four from four in the red zone and the Patriots only went one from four. They had to kick two field goals and also turned another one over on downs.
Baltimore were once again led by quarterback, Joe Flacco. Flacco has been outstanding in the playoffs and had another fantastic game, throwing for 240 yards and 3 touchdowns. His main targets were Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta. Smith caught 4 passes for 69 yards, Boldin caught 5 for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns and Dennis Pitta caught 5 passes for 55 yards and a touchdown. The ground game wasn't hugely effective and the Patriots done a good job of stopping Ray Rice. He did get a touchdown but they restricted him to just 48 yards from 19 carries. Bernard Pierce was a bit more dangerous and ran for 52 yards from 9 carries.
Tom Brady didn't have a great game for the Patriots, completing 29 of 54 passes for 320 yards, a touchdown and 2 interceptions. When Brady gets to throw 54 passes you expect a lot more than thirteen points to show for it. His leading receivers were Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Brandon Lloyd. Welker led the way with 8 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. Hernandez caught 9 passes for 83 yards and Lloyd caught 7 passes for 70 yards. Stevan Ridley was the leading rusher and picked up 70 yards from his 18 carries. He was also the man responsible for the fumble that led to the Ravens fourth touchdown so it wasn't a great day for the running-back.
To be honest, I'm not sure were the Patriots go from here. Eight seasons have passed since they last won the Superbowl and for guys like Tom Brady and Bill Belichick who set their standards so high, it's not good enough. They have been in the playoffs in seven of those eight seasons and their regular season record has never been worse than 10-6 but for some reason they keep falling short in the big games. Belichick will undoubtedly look to see what he can do to fix things as they are clearly not far from the right formula but these guys are born winners and anything other than a ring at the end of the season is good enough for the Patriots.
The Baltimore Ravens will be delighted to be going back to the Superbowl after so many close calls in recent years. They won it in 2000 and have made the playoffs in eight of the twelve seasons that have passed since then. This is their fifth consecutive year in the playoffs and in each of those years, they have won a game but failed to reach the Superbowl, until this season. It will be a very special occasion for the entire franchise and especially their legendary linebacker, Ray Lewis. Lewis announced a few weeks ago that he will be retiring at the end of this season and surely there is no better way for a true NFL legend to go out than with a Superbowl appearance.
Ravens Offensive Star : Joe Flacco - Who is this new guy playing under center for the Ravens? We have saw a completely different Flacco in the playoffs and long may it continue.
Ravens Defensive Star : Ray Lewis - Lewis has been in the conversation in the last two games but he gets the nod this week after a massive 14 tackles.
Patriots Offensive Star : Wes Welker - The Patriots need to get Welker's contract situation sorted as he is a huge player for the franchise.
Patriots Defensive Star : Rob Ninkovich - 8 tackles, two of which were for a loss and 2 sacks were not enough to send the Patriots back to the Superbowl.
The San Francisco 49ers came from 17-0 down to beat the Atlanta Falcons and secure their first Superbowl appearance since 1994.
The 49ers started off very slowly and were 17-0 down early in the second quarter. They rallied after that though and got back to 17-14 but the Falcons got another touchdown before half-time to lead 24-14 at the break. The 49ers defense came up big in the second half though. The Falcons were unable to add to the 24 points they had scored in the first half and the offense got the two touchdowns that were required to complete the comeback.
The defeat will have left some mental scars on the Falcons as they threw away a big league for the second week in a row. Last week they were able to respond with a field goal to win the game but this week a field goal was no use and they needed to get the ball in the end zone but they were unable to get beyond the San Francisco 10 yard line. They got one final chance when the 49ers went three and out and were forced to punt. The Falcons had six seconds on the clock and the ball on their own 41. The play had to be a Hail Mary or some sort of a lateral play but instead the Falcons played a mid range pass to Julio Jones at the 49ers 35 and he was tackled instantly which ended the game. The Falcons had no timeouts left and the pass was played into the middle of the field so I have no idea what they were thinking of. That play summed up the Falcons entire second half and they never really looked likely to score until the drive just after the 49ers scored. Much of the criticism should be handed to the coaches. They were having some success early on by being aggressive on offense. Once they got into the lead they changed styles and tried to protect their lead. They had all the momentum and let it slip but they are not the first team to make that mistake and certainly won't be the last.
Matt Ryan had a mixed game. He threw for 396 yards and 3 touchdowns but he was also responsible for two bad turnovers. He was intercepted after throwing the ball straight to Chris Culliver and he also lost a fumble when he took his eyes off the ball on a shotgun snap. Turnovers aside, he was excellent but everyone knows that turnovers will cost you games and it was the case yesterday. The Falcons weren't great on the ground, picking up 81 yards from 23 running plays. The Falcons were once again led in the passing game by their three big stars, Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. Jones caught 11 passes for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns. White caught 7 passes for 100 yards and Gonzalez caught 8 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown.
The 49ers deserve a lot of credit for their performance. After falling behind so early many teams would have crumbled but the 49ers refused to panic. They stuck to their game plan and were rewarded with two touchdowns to get back to within three but conceded another touchdown just before the half to leave the deficit at ten points. They came out in the second half and continued to plug away and got the gap back to three points with a touchdown early in the third quarter. The teams then had a bit of a crazy spell were both had turnovers and the 49ers missed a field goal before San Francisco eventually took the lead thanks to a Vernon Davis touchdown with just over eight minutes remaining. The 49ers allowed the Falcons to get up the field but a field goal was no use at this stage and they managed to keep them out of the end zone to secure the win.
One man who deserves a lot of credit is quarterback, Colin Kaepernick. He had what I would say was the best game of his career. Everyone knows what he can do on the ground but I'm old fashioned and like a quarterback who can pass the ball. I've spent many an evening over the last month or two writing about how bad a passer he is so it's only right that I acknowledge how good he was in this game. He completed 16 of his 21 passes for 231 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers are very good but they don't do justice to how well he played. He left the running side of the game to the running-backs and stood in the pocket and made some fantastic passes. I have to be honest and say that I didn't think he had that kind of performance in him but he stepped up and played like a pure passer to lead his team to a Superbowl and I can't give him enough credit for that. He's still a young guy and if he can continue to improve as a passer and play with more consistency in that area, he could have a big career in the NFL. Other stars for the 49ers were Frank Gore who ran for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns from 21 carries and Vernon Davis who caught 5 passes for 106 yards and a touchdown.
For the Falcons, there will be a lot of soul searching in the off season. It looks as though Tony Gonzalez will retire which will be a big loss for them. They will also need to address what happened in these playoffs and why they gave away two big leads in their two games. In my opinion, it was bad coaching. They got themselves into good positions with aggressive play calling and then tried to hang onto the lead by relying on their defense and running game to kill time. Neither unit were good enough and the Falcons are at their best when they are going for the jugular and trying to beat teams instead of maintaining leads.
For the 49ers, it's two weeks of studying film, training, hard work and coming up with a plan to pick up a win in New Orleans in the Har-Bowl.
49ers Offensive Star : Colin Kaepernick - Vernon Davis and Frank Gore deserve this just as much but Kaepernick showed us a side to his game that we hadn't really saw before.
49ers Defensive Star : Patrick Willis - Twelve tackles including one for a loss was a good return from the linebacker.
Falcons Offensive Star : Julio Jones - Jones deserved to be in a Superbowl after picking up 182 yards and 2 touchdowns from his 11 catches.
Falcons Defensive Star : Thomas DeCoud - The Falcons safety made 8 tackles and also deflected a pass.
Baltimore Ravens 28-13 New England Patriots
The Baltimore Ravens secured an unlikely passage to the Superbowl after a big win over the New England Patriots last night. Nobody has earned a place in the Superbowl more than this Baltimore Ravens team. They came into the playoffs as the fourth seed and beat the Indianapolis Colts who had a better regular season record than them, the Denver Broncos who looked like the best team in the AFC by quite some distance and finally, the New England Patriots who have more experience of Championship games than any other team in recent years. I did expect them to prevail against the Colts but I gave them next to no chance against the Broncos and the Patriots and on both occasions they have gone into hostile atmosphere's and done the business.
Statistically the game was fairly tight but there were a few key differences between the sides and it turned out to be the difference between winning and losing. I have been banging on all year about turnovers and once again this game was evidence of the fact that it's very hard to win in this league if you turn the ball over. The Patriots turned it over three times and the Ravens managed to avoid any turnovers. The first turnover was costly as the Patriots were eight behind and had drove to midfield and then lost the ball to a fumble. Not content at stopping the Patriots from scoring, the Ravens turned the turnover into points and got a touchdown to extend their lead to fifteen points. The last two were interceptions when the Patriots were in desperation mode. The first was in Ravens territory and the Patriots looked like reducing the gap to eight points with around half the fourth quarter to play. Instead Tom Brady was picked off and the Ravens managed to drive down the field and take 4:44 off the clock. That left the Patriots fifteen behind and just over two minutes left. The Pats were moving the ball down the field but got intercepted again and that left the Ravens in the position were they could take two kneels to finish off the game. The other difference was their success in the red zone. The Ravens went four from four in the red zone and the Patriots only went one from four. They had to kick two field goals and also turned another one over on downs.
Baltimore were once again led by quarterback, Joe Flacco. Flacco has been outstanding in the playoffs and had another fantastic game, throwing for 240 yards and 3 touchdowns. His main targets were Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta. Smith caught 4 passes for 69 yards, Boldin caught 5 for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns and Dennis Pitta caught 5 passes for 55 yards and a touchdown. The ground game wasn't hugely effective and the Patriots done a good job of stopping Ray Rice. He did get a touchdown but they restricted him to just 48 yards from 19 carries. Bernard Pierce was a bit more dangerous and ran for 52 yards from 9 carries.
Tom Brady didn't have a great game for the Patriots, completing 29 of 54 passes for 320 yards, a touchdown and 2 interceptions. When Brady gets to throw 54 passes you expect a lot more than thirteen points to show for it. His leading receivers were Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Brandon Lloyd. Welker led the way with 8 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. Hernandez caught 9 passes for 83 yards and Lloyd caught 7 passes for 70 yards. Stevan Ridley was the leading rusher and picked up 70 yards from his 18 carries. He was also the man responsible for the fumble that led to the Ravens fourth touchdown so it wasn't a great day for the running-back.
To be honest, I'm not sure were the Patriots go from here. Eight seasons have passed since they last won the Superbowl and for guys like Tom Brady and Bill Belichick who set their standards so high, it's not good enough. They have been in the playoffs in seven of those eight seasons and their regular season record has never been worse than 10-6 but for some reason they keep falling short in the big games. Belichick will undoubtedly look to see what he can do to fix things as they are clearly not far from the right formula but these guys are born winners and anything other than a ring at the end of the season is good enough for the Patriots.
The Baltimore Ravens will be delighted to be going back to the Superbowl after so many close calls in recent years. They won it in 2000 and have made the playoffs in eight of the twelve seasons that have passed since then. This is their fifth consecutive year in the playoffs and in each of those years, they have won a game but failed to reach the Superbowl, until this season. It will be a very special occasion for the entire franchise and especially their legendary linebacker, Ray Lewis. Lewis announced a few weeks ago that he will be retiring at the end of this season and surely there is no better way for a true NFL legend to go out than with a Superbowl appearance.
Ravens Offensive Star : Joe Flacco - Who is this new guy playing under center for the Ravens? We have saw a completely different Flacco in the playoffs and long may it continue.
Ravens Defensive Star : Ray Lewis - Lewis has been in the conversation in the last two games but he gets the nod this week after a massive 14 tackles.
Patriots Offensive Star : Wes Welker - The Patriots need to get Welker's contract situation sorted as he is a huge player for the franchise.
Patriots Defensive Star : Rob Ninkovich - 8 tackles, two of which were for a loss and 2 sacks were not enough to send the Patriots back to the Superbowl.
Sunday 20 January 2013
NFL Championship Weekend Preview
NFC Championship Game - San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (14-3)
The NFC's top two sides successfully negotiated tough divisional round match ups to secure passage to the Championship Game. The 49ers got it tight for three quarters last week against the Green Bay before sealing the game with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The Falcons had the exact opposite. They cruised for three quarters and led 27-7 as the fourth quarter started but the Seahawks scored three unanswered touchdowns to lead by one before Matt Bryant nailed a 49 yard field goal to secure the Falcon's first playoff victory since 2004.
San Francisco were very impressive in their win against the Green Bay Packers. Colin Kaepernick had a great game and led the ground game. Between his passing and running he played a part in four touchdowns and 444 yards of offense. He was well supported by Frank Gore and Michael Crabtree who also had very good games. News broke yesterday of Michael Crabtree being questioned by police in relation to a sexual assault after the Green Bay game last weekend. Details are sketchy at this point but it is far from ideal preparation for an NFC title game.
Atlanta players must be riding a roller coaster of emotions after last Sunday's epic win over the Seattle Seahawks. It was one of the most amazing games I have saw in all the year's I have been watching NFL but the biggest question will be how much did it take out of the Falcons? Momentum and confidence are great things in sport and right now, I'm not sure Atlanta have either. The 49ers will be feeling pretty good about themselves. They went up against a top side and outplayed them on the way to a win with a strong finish. Atlanta, on the other hand, were cruising towards victory and then before they even realised it themselves, they were behind and suddenly had to do something or their season was over. I expect their players will be relieved but they will also be asking themselves a lot of questions about what went wrong and it will have taken a lot of the confidence that they were no doubt brimming with after three quarters of action.
The match ups in this game are very interesting as both teams prepared for this game by beating a similar team last week. The Falcons beat the Seahawks who have the strong defense, mobile quarterback and elite running-back that the 49ers have. The one big difference though is that the 49ers should have most of their key players available, unlike the Seahawks who looked a little toothless at the line of scrimmage without Chris Clemons. The 49ers beat the Packers last week and once again, they are remarkably similar to the Falcons. Both teams rely heavily on their passing games and aren't particularly strong on the ground or on defense. If anything, the Packers are probably a little better than the Falcons in most of those areas.
The rest of the statistics are quite interesting. The 49ers are 11th in sacking the quarterback but the Falcons have got good protection for Matt Ryan and ranked 7th best in the NFL in the regular season in sacks allowed. On the other side of the field, the Falcons have really struggled to get pressure on the quarterback and ranked 28th in sacks but the 49ers aren't much better at protecting their quarterbacks and ranked 23rd. Both teams are good at protecting the football and both were in the top four in the NFC in giveaways.
Atlanta finished the regular season with the joint best record at 13-3. Many people said they had a soft schedule, which to be fair they did but it can't be ignored that last week's win sent them to 3-0 for the year against teams who qualified for the playoffs. The 49ers had things a little harder and after last week, are 4-2 against teams who made the postseason. It's also worth considering that the Atlanta Falcons have been very good in the Georgia Dome in recent times. They went 7-1 at home this year but their only defeat came in week 17 when the number one seed was in the bag and the team were looking beyond that game.
Prediction - This game is very tough to call. When I look at these two teams and rank them head to head, I am putting more ticks in the San Francisco column. In my opinion the 49ers are the better team and would win this one if it was at a neutral venue but it's not and I have to decide whether the 49ers are good enough to go into a very hostile Atlanta and pick up the win. The last time Colin Kaepernick played in a hostile atmosphere was against the Seahawks and things didn't really work out for him that day. I can see a similar outcome this time and will go with the Atlanta Falcons to reach their second Superbowl in franchise history.
AFC Championship Game - Baltimore Ravens (12-6) @ New England Patriots (13-4)
Baltimore and New England picked up wins last weekend to set up a repeat of last year's AFC title game. On that occasion the Patriots came out on top so the Ravens will be going all out for revenge. The Ravens did avenge that defeat in the regular season but I've no doubt they would quite happily change that one for a win tonight.
The Ravens are the only team who played in the wildcard weekend who are still alive. They have beaten the Colts and Broncos in successive weeks to get this far. The win over the Colts was expected but the Broncos one was a big surprise and they deserve a lot of credit and respect for going into Mile High and leaving with the victory. Joe Flacco has been excellent in the playoffs so far, throwing for over 600 yards, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. Ray Rice was also very good against the Broncos after a mixed game against the Colts. Against the Colts, he had 100 yards from scrimmage but never done his team any favours with two lost fumbles. He never let it get to him though and bounced back with 131 yards and a touchdown on the ground in Denver. If the Ravens can get big performances from those two and at least one of their receivers has a big day there's no reason why they can't get points on the board. On defense their job has got a little easier with Rob Gronkowski's injury. In the two games so far, the Ravens defense has been excellent. They have been very good as a unit and have had some good individual displays from Ray Lewis, Corey Graham and Cary Williams. If the Ravens bring everything that they can, then the Patriots will be in for a tough day but the Ravens have struggled with consistency and it might be a big ask for it all to click for them two weeks in a row.
The Patriots got here with a relatively comfortable win over the Houston Texans. Tom Brady came up big once again, throwing for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns. Wes Welker led the receivers with 8 catches for 131 yards. Shane Vereen also had a huge game, picking up 124 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns. Steven Ridley and Aaron Hernandez also done their bit in winning the game for the Patriots. New England look better this season than in previous years. They have a much better running game than they have ever had in the Tom Brady era and they can also do a bit on defense and have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Patriots will rightly start this game as favourites but when these two get together, the games are always tight.
When I look at the match ups in this one, it looks very one sided. The only place the Ravens are better than the Patriots is on pass defense but even at that both sides are ranked in the bottom half of the league. The Ravens were 17th and the Patriots were 29th. In every other statistic the teams were either level or the Patriots ranked higher. New England ranked 4th in passing, 7th in rushing and 9th in run defense. The Ravens were 15th in passing, 11th in rushing and 20th in run defense. Having said that, the Ravens have looked much better in the playoffs and ultimately the only statistic that matters is the one with the scoreline.
One of the key's in New England's success has been their ability to protect the football and their quarterback. They allowed just 27 sacks on Tom Brady which ranked 4th in the league. When a guy with Brady's talent gets time in the pocket, he's going to cause damage. The Ravens haven't been as good at protecting Joe Flacco and they ranked 20th in the NFL in sack's allowed. Both defenses sacked the opposing quarterback 37 times which was joint 15th in the league.
Prediction - All signs point to New England. I have a bit of a soft spot for Ray Lewis though and would have no objections to seeing him dance his way onto the field in two weeks time in the Superbowl but I have to go with my head and not my heart. The best quarterback I have saw in my time watching the NFL is Tom Brady and he's the one guy I will always believe in. Patriots win.
The NFC's top two sides successfully negotiated tough divisional round match ups to secure passage to the Championship Game. The 49ers got it tight for three quarters last week against the Green Bay before sealing the game with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The Falcons had the exact opposite. They cruised for three quarters and led 27-7 as the fourth quarter started but the Seahawks scored three unanswered touchdowns to lead by one before Matt Bryant nailed a 49 yard field goal to secure the Falcon's first playoff victory since 2004.
San Francisco were very impressive in their win against the Green Bay Packers. Colin Kaepernick had a great game and led the ground game. Between his passing and running he played a part in four touchdowns and 444 yards of offense. He was well supported by Frank Gore and Michael Crabtree who also had very good games. News broke yesterday of Michael Crabtree being questioned by police in relation to a sexual assault after the Green Bay game last weekend. Details are sketchy at this point but it is far from ideal preparation for an NFC title game.
Atlanta players must be riding a roller coaster of emotions after last Sunday's epic win over the Seattle Seahawks. It was one of the most amazing games I have saw in all the year's I have been watching NFL but the biggest question will be how much did it take out of the Falcons? Momentum and confidence are great things in sport and right now, I'm not sure Atlanta have either. The 49ers will be feeling pretty good about themselves. They went up against a top side and outplayed them on the way to a win with a strong finish. Atlanta, on the other hand, were cruising towards victory and then before they even realised it themselves, they were behind and suddenly had to do something or their season was over. I expect their players will be relieved but they will also be asking themselves a lot of questions about what went wrong and it will have taken a lot of the confidence that they were no doubt brimming with after three quarters of action.
The match ups in this game are very interesting as both teams prepared for this game by beating a similar team last week. The Falcons beat the Seahawks who have the strong defense, mobile quarterback and elite running-back that the 49ers have. The one big difference though is that the 49ers should have most of their key players available, unlike the Seahawks who looked a little toothless at the line of scrimmage without Chris Clemons. The 49ers beat the Packers last week and once again, they are remarkably similar to the Falcons. Both teams rely heavily on their passing games and aren't particularly strong on the ground or on defense. If anything, the Packers are probably a little better than the Falcons in most of those areas.
The rest of the statistics are quite interesting. The 49ers are 11th in sacking the quarterback but the Falcons have got good protection for Matt Ryan and ranked 7th best in the NFL in the regular season in sacks allowed. On the other side of the field, the Falcons have really struggled to get pressure on the quarterback and ranked 28th in sacks but the 49ers aren't much better at protecting their quarterbacks and ranked 23rd. Both teams are good at protecting the football and both were in the top four in the NFC in giveaways.
Atlanta finished the regular season with the joint best record at 13-3. Many people said they had a soft schedule, which to be fair they did but it can't be ignored that last week's win sent them to 3-0 for the year against teams who qualified for the playoffs. The 49ers had things a little harder and after last week, are 4-2 against teams who made the postseason. It's also worth considering that the Atlanta Falcons have been very good in the Georgia Dome in recent times. They went 7-1 at home this year but their only defeat came in week 17 when the number one seed was in the bag and the team were looking beyond that game.
Prediction - This game is very tough to call. When I look at these two teams and rank them head to head, I am putting more ticks in the San Francisco column. In my opinion the 49ers are the better team and would win this one if it was at a neutral venue but it's not and I have to decide whether the 49ers are good enough to go into a very hostile Atlanta and pick up the win. The last time Colin Kaepernick played in a hostile atmosphere was against the Seahawks and things didn't really work out for him that day. I can see a similar outcome this time and will go with the Atlanta Falcons to reach their second Superbowl in franchise history.
AFC Championship Game - Baltimore Ravens (12-6) @ New England Patriots (13-4)
Baltimore and New England picked up wins last weekend to set up a repeat of last year's AFC title game. On that occasion the Patriots came out on top so the Ravens will be going all out for revenge. The Ravens did avenge that defeat in the regular season but I've no doubt they would quite happily change that one for a win tonight.
The Ravens are the only team who played in the wildcard weekend who are still alive. They have beaten the Colts and Broncos in successive weeks to get this far. The win over the Colts was expected but the Broncos one was a big surprise and they deserve a lot of credit and respect for going into Mile High and leaving with the victory. Joe Flacco has been excellent in the playoffs so far, throwing for over 600 yards, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. Ray Rice was also very good against the Broncos after a mixed game against the Colts. Against the Colts, he had 100 yards from scrimmage but never done his team any favours with two lost fumbles. He never let it get to him though and bounced back with 131 yards and a touchdown on the ground in Denver. If the Ravens can get big performances from those two and at least one of their receivers has a big day there's no reason why they can't get points on the board. On defense their job has got a little easier with Rob Gronkowski's injury. In the two games so far, the Ravens defense has been excellent. They have been very good as a unit and have had some good individual displays from Ray Lewis, Corey Graham and Cary Williams. If the Ravens bring everything that they can, then the Patriots will be in for a tough day but the Ravens have struggled with consistency and it might be a big ask for it all to click for them two weeks in a row.
The Patriots got here with a relatively comfortable win over the Houston Texans. Tom Brady came up big once again, throwing for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns. Wes Welker led the receivers with 8 catches for 131 yards. Shane Vereen also had a huge game, picking up 124 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns. Steven Ridley and Aaron Hernandez also done their bit in winning the game for the Patriots. New England look better this season than in previous years. They have a much better running game than they have ever had in the Tom Brady era and they can also do a bit on defense and have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Patriots will rightly start this game as favourites but when these two get together, the games are always tight.
When I look at the match ups in this one, it looks very one sided. The only place the Ravens are better than the Patriots is on pass defense but even at that both sides are ranked in the bottom half of the league. The Ravens were 17th and the Patriots were 29th. In every other statistic the teams were either level or the Patriots ranked higher. New England ranked 4th in passing, 7th in rushing and 9th in run defense. The Ravens were 15th in passing, 11th in rushing and 20th in run defense. Having said that, the Ravens have looked much better in the playoffs and ultimately the only statistic that matters is the one with the scoreline.
One of the key's in New England's success has been their ability to protect the football and their quarterback. They allowed just 27 sacks on Tom Brady which ranked 4th in the league. When a guy with Brady's talent gets time in the pocket, he's going to cause damage. The Ravens haven't been as good at protecting Joe Flacco and they ranked 20th in the NFL in sack's allowed. Both defenses sacked the opposing quarterback 37 times which was joint 15th in the league.
Prediction - All signs point to New England. I have a bit of a soft spot for Ray Lewis though and would have no objections to seeing him dance his way onto the field in two weeks time in the Superbowl but I have to go with my head and not my heart. The best quarterback I have saw in my time watching the NFL is Tom Brady and he's the one guy I will always believe in. Patriots win.
Tuesday 15 January 2013
NFL DIVISIONAL WEEKEND REVIEW
Baltimore Ravens 38-35 Denver Broncos (2nd OT)
The Baltimore Ravens pulled off the biggest surprise of the playoffs so far by beating the Denver Broncos at Mile High. The game was tight all the way and there was never more than a touchdown between the teams. Denver led for most of the game but the Ravens kept coming back at them. Throughout the game Denver led 7-0, 21-14, 28-21 and 35-28 but they were unable to hang onto those leads and it was the Ravens who had the last laugh winning with a field goal in the second period of overtime.
Peyton Manning was poor by his usual high standards. He completed just 28 of his 43 passes for 290 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He also fumbled the ball which was recovered by the Ravens. When you turn the ball over three times you are asking for trouble and unfortunately for the Broncos it has cost them their shot at an AFC Championship game. All three turnovers led to points. The first was a pick six, the next was a fumble which handed Baltimore the ball in Denver territory and the third one was the interception that led to the game winning field goal. Those turnovers cost the Broncos 17 points and possibly more as they may have scored themselves on those drives.
The Broncos struggled with their running game all day and that was another factor in the defeat. They ran the ball 41 times but picked up just 125 yards. That's 3 yards per carry and is simply not good enough in the NFL. The Broncos offense had an off day and still managed to put 35 points on the board which goes to show how big a win this was for the Ravens.
The Ravens showed a lot of character in this game. As I have already mentioned, they spent a lot of the game behind but they didn't let it phase them and they came back time and time again. The Broncos would have been starting to think they had the game won at 3rd and 3 with the ball on the Ravens 30 yard line but the Ravens had other ideas. Joe Flacco unleashed a pass down field for Jacoby Jones to score the touchdown that took the game to overtime. The Ravens defense stepped up in overtime and did not allow the Broncos to cross midfield and when their chance came they took it. Corey Graham intercepted a Manning pass which allowed the Ravens to start from the Denver 45. Ray Rice was able to run the ball down the field to set up the game winning field goal from Justin Tucker.
The Ravens offense had a good day with Joe Flacco and Ray Rice particularly impressive. Flacco threw for 331 yards and 3 touchdowns. Rice picked up 131 yards and a touchdown from his 30 carries. Torrey Smith also had a good game, catching 3 passes for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Baltimore now head to New England to take on the Patriots in a repeat of last year's AFC Championship game. On that occasion, the Patriots came out on top by a field goal and it promises to be another close battle between two teams who have shown themselves to be the cream of the AFC.
Ravens Offensive Star : Ray Rice - Flacco's completion percentage let's him down so I am siding with Rice who took charge when the game was on the line and got the Ravens into a position where they could kick a field goal.
Ravens Defensive Star : Corey Graham - Ray Lewis had another good game, making 17 tackles but I have to give it to Graham who made two huge interceptions, 8 tackles and 3 pass deflections. Lewis was good but Graham was the difference.
Broncos Offensive Star : Eric Decker - A lot of guys were below par for the Broncos but Decker had a decent game, catching 6 passes for 84 yards.
Broncos Defensive Star : Von Miller - Again there was nothing exceptional but Miller led the way with 9 tackles, half a sack and 2 hits on the quarterback.
Green Bay Packers 31-45 San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers made their second consecutive NFC Championship game after a good win over the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night. The game was close until the fourth quarter. The 49ers entered the fourth with a seven point lead and extended that to fourteen on the opening play of the quarter before sealing the win with three and a half minutes to go. The Packers responded with a touchdown but it was too little too late to stop the 49ers literally running away with the win.
The 49ers were deserving winners and one look at the statistics underlines how impressive they were. In all of the key areas they were better than Green Bay and when that happens there's not much anyone can do. They completely dominated time of possession, having the ball for just over 38 minutes. They had 200 yards of total offense more than the Packers and they were also better in the most important stat in football, turnovers. The 49ers turned the ball over once and the Packers turned it over twice. The passing numbers were similar with the 49ers throwing for just 8 more yards than the Packers but the big difference was on the ground where the 49ers totalled 323 yards.
Aaron Rodgers didn't have his best game of the season, completing 26 of 39 passes for 257 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. His interception was punished by the 49ers who picked up a touchdown from the following drive. Green Bay's other turnover also led to a touchdown, when Jeremy Ross muffed a punt return which was recovered by the 49ers at the Green Bay 9 yard line. In a game that was so tight for such a long time it would have to be questioned why the Packers didn't run the ball more often as they were picking up some good yards on the ground. DuJuan Harris ran for 53 yards and a touchdown from his 11 carries and the Packers ground game ended up picking up 6.5 yards per carry. If they had put a bit more faith in it, the result may have been different.
For the 49ers, Colin Kaepernick and Frank Gore were able to run the ball at will and beat up on the Packers defense. Kaepernick's numbers weren't that great in the air but he was very effective on the ground. He completed just 17 of his 31 pass attempts for 263 yards, 2 touchdowns and a pick six. However, he was able to make amends by rushing for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns from his 16 carries. He was in good company though and Frank Gore ran for 119 yards and a touchdown from his 23 carries. Gore also caught 2 passes for 48 yards which meant he was the 49ers second best receiver on the day. Michael Crabtree was the only one who put up better numbers, catching 9 passes for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The 49ers now head to Atlanta to take part in the NFC Championship game and they will be hoping for a better result than last year. In last year's NFC title game, the 49ers lost at home to the New York Giants courtesy of a Lawrence Tynes field goal in overtime. On paper the game looks like a cracker and I for one find it hard to make a call on who I think will win.
Packers Offensive Star : DuJuan Harris - Harris picked up 64 yards from his 11 touches of the ball.
Packers Defensive Star : Sam Shieds - Shields had a pick six, 4 tackles and 2 pass deflections.
49ers Offensive Star : Colin Kaepernick - Kaepernick threw for 263 yards, two touchdowns and ran for 181 yards and 2 more touchdowns so there could only be one winner.
49ers Defensive Star : Patrick Willis - Willis picked up 7 tackles, one for a loss and a sack to help the 49ers pick up the win.
Seattle Seahawks 28-30 Atlanta Falcons
This will go down as one of the best games I have ever saw. I'm not even a fan of either team and I was completely glued to my television and my nerves were shattered. As an NFL fan living in Ireland I often hear the old rubbish about how can you watch that, it's so slow, it's too stop start. If you know anyone who isn't a fan of the NFL, show them a video of this game. This is why American Football is my favourite sport. Credit to both teams, it was an absolute pleasure to watch.
In the first half the game looked over. The Falcons led 20-0 at half-time and looked very comfortable. The Seahawks got it back to 20-7 with a touchdown on the first drive of the second half but the Falcons responded with a touchdown on the next drive to extend the lead to 27-7. With just over seventeen minutes remaining in the game and a twenty point gap between the sides the game looked dead but thankfully for us neutrals, nobody told the Seahawks.
They got a quick touchdown early in the fourth quarter and then intercepted Matt Ryan on the next drive. Four plays later, they were in the end zone again and all of a sudden the gap was reduced to six points with over nine minutes on the clock. The next three drives never came to much and with the game still hanging in the balance, Seattle's offense came on the field with exactly three minutes remaining and were able to move the ball down the field and eventually into the end zone to take a one point lead with just 31 seconds remaining.
At this point I was fearing for Matt Ryan's career. The guy was already carrying a lot of baggage thanks to his 0-3 record in the playoffs but a defeat after leading by twenty points in the fourth quarter might just leave a deep enough scar to finish him off. However, they don't call him Matty Ice for nothing. He took to the field and made two big completions that got the Falcons down to the Seattle 31 yard line. Matt Bryant came onto the field and kicked a 49 yard field goal to put the Falcons back in the lead. Now the game had to be over? No, not quite. For some bizarre reason Matt Bosher tried an onside kick which the Seahawks recovered at their own 46 yard line. Seattle made a quick completion to get them a little further up the field so they could attempt an all or nothing Hail Mary as time was expiring. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, Russell Wilson made the pass a little earlier than they would have liked and Julio Jones was able to make the interception that won the game for the Falcons.
Russell Wilson ended the game with good numbers. He completed 24 of his 36 passes for 385 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. Wilson also led the running game with 60 yards and a touchdown from his 7 carries. Marshawn Lynch had a disappointing day on the ground, rushing for 46 yards and a touchdown at 2.9 yards per carry. Seattle's leading receivers were Zach Miller and Golden Tate. Miller made 8 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. Tate caught 6 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown.
Matt Ryan ended the game with mixed numbers. He completed 24 of his 35 passes for 250 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. There will be a lot of things he won't be happy with but ultimately when the game was on the line, he passed the test. His leading receiver was Roddy White who caught 5 passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. The biggest surprise in this game was the success the Falcons had on the ground. Prior to the game everyone was talking about the Falcons passing game but they ended up doing their best work on the ground. Michael Turner picked up 98 yards from 14 carries and Jacquizz Rodgers had 64 yards from 10 carries. The Falcons averaged 6.4 yards per carry which was a statistic I don't think anyone saw coming.
The defeat will no doubt have an impact on the Seahawks but they are a young team and from what I saw this season, they will be back again. However, if the Falcons had lost the game I think the scars would have been pretty deep for a few players and the franchise may well have made some changes. Luckily for them, they go the win and can look forward to hosting an NFC Championship game on Sunday.
Seahawks Offensive Star : Russell Wilson - Wilson accounted for 445 yards of offense and three touchdowns but it was too little, too late.
Seahawks Defensive Star : Bobby Wagner - Wagner picked up an interception, 8 tackles and a pass deflection.
Falcons Offensive Star : Michael Turner - Turner stepped up this week and averaged 7 yards per carry.
Falcons Defensive Star : Jonathan Babineaux - 3 tackles, one for a loss, a sack, 2 hits on the quarterback and a fumble recovery for the defensive tackle.
Houston Texans 28-41 New England Patriots
The fact that this game which had 69 points in it was the third highest scoring and the least entertaining game of the weekend goes to show what a special weekend we just had in the NFL. The eight teams who took part in the divisional round of the playoffs brought everything they had and left it all on the field. For myself and fans of all twenty-four neutral franchises, it was an excellent and entertaining weekend.
There wasn't anything wrong with this game and it was quite entertaining but for the most part it lacked the drama that the other three games had. In the first half the game looked to be getting away from the Texans but they managed to score ten points in the last 1:15 of the half to bring the scoreline to within four points. They were unable to keep that momentum going however and the Patriots scored two unanswered touchdowns in the third quarter and then another at the start of the fourth to stretch the lead to twenty-five points. The Texans had one last charge and got two quick touchdowns, the second also saw them successfully go for a two point conversion. By this stage the lead was reduced to ten points with over five minutes remaining. The Texans tried the onside kick which they had a chance of recovering but they failed to do so and from then the Patriots offense went on a clock killing drive which ended in a field goal. By the time the Texans got the ball back they were thirteen behind with just 1:14 on the clock and no timeouts. They were unable to get another score and once again it's the Patriots who will play the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC title game.
Statistically, the game was very tight and if anything the Texans had the better in quite a few categories although the game never really felt like that was the case. The one area were they did come second best was turnovers. They had one turnover which isn't the end of the world but it was one more than the Patriots had and as it happens, it was a costly one. The Texans were in field goal range and Matt Schaub threw a pick to Rob Ninkovich. What made matters even worse was that six plays later the Patriots were celebrating a touchdown. If you take that seven off the Pats and say the Texans had got a touchdown of their own. That's a fourteen point swing and suddenly it's Houston hosting next week's AFC Championship game.
Matt Schaub completed 34 of his 51 passes for 343 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. Once again his go to guys were Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. Johnson caught 8 passes for 95 yards and Daniels caught 9 passes for 81 yards. Arian Foster also had a good game and ended up with 153 yards from scrimmage. He ran for 90 yards and a touchdown and also caught 7 passes for 63 yards and a touchdown.
Tom Brady completed 25 of his 40 passes for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns. Brady targeted Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Shane Vereen. Welker caught 8 passes for 131 yards, Hernandez caught 6 passes for 85 yards and Shane Vereen caught 5 passes for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns. Vereen also got a touchdown on the ground to end with 124 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns. Stevan Ridley was the leading rusher, picking up 82 yards and a touchdown.
New England will now host this year's AFC Championship game which will be a repeat of last year's game. On that occasion the Patriots came out on top and as a neutral it would delight me equally to see either Tom Brady or Ray Lewis take to the field in New Orleans for Superbowl XLVII.
Texans Offensive Star : Arian Foster - Two touchdowns and 153 yards from scrimmage but it still wasn't enough for the Texans.
Texans Defensive Star : Bradie James - 11 tackles and one for a loss from the linebacker wasn't enough to stop the Patriots.
Patriots Offensive Star : Shane Vereen - The running-back had a career day by scoring more touchdowns on Sunday than he had so far in his career.
Patriots Defensive Star : Rob Ninkovich - 4 tackles, one for a loss, 2 pass deflections, a quarterback hit and an interception from the linebacker.
The Baltimore Ravens pulled off the biggest surprise of the playoffs so far by beating the Denver Broncos at Mile High. The game was tight all the way and there was never more than a touchdown between the teams. Denver led for most of the game but the Ravens kept coming back at them. Throughout the game Denver led 7-0, 21-14, 28-21 and 35-28 but they were unable to hang onto those leads and it was the Ravens who had the last laugh winning with a field goal in the second period of overtime.
Peyton Manning was poor by his usual high standards. He completed just 28 of his 43 passes for 290 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He also fumbled the ball which was recovered by the Ravens. When you turn the ball over three times you are asking for trouble and unfortunately for the Broncos it has cost them their shot at an AFC Championship game. All three turnovers led to points. The first was a pick six, the next was a fumble which handed Baltimore the ball in Denver territory and the third one was the interception that led to the game winning field goal. Those turnovers cost the Broncos 17 points and possibly more as they may have scored themselves on those drives.
The Broncos struggled with their running game all day and that was another factor in the defeat. They ran the ball 41 times but picked up just 125 yards. That's 3 yards per carry and is simply not good enough in the NFL. The Broncos offense had an off day and still managed to put 35 points on the board which goes to show how big a win this was for the Ravens.
The Ravens showed a lot of character in this game. As I have already mentioned, they spent a lot of the game behind but they didn't let it phase them and they came back time and time again. The Broncos would have been starting to think they had the game won at 3rd and 3 with the ball on the Ravens 30 yard line but the Ravens had other ideas. Joe Flacco unleashed a pass down field for Jacoby Jones to score the touchdown that took the game to overtime. The Ravens defense stepped up in overtime and did not allow the Broncos to cross midfield and when their chance came they took it. Corey Graham intercepted a Manning pass which allowed the Ravens to start from the Denver 45. Ray Rice was able to run the ball down the field to set up the game winning field goal from Justin Tucker.
The Ravens offense had a good day with Joe Flacco and Ray Rice particularly impressive. Flacco threw for 331 yards and 3 touchdowns. Rice picked up 131 yards and a touchdown from his 30 carries. Torrey Smith also had a good game, catching 3 passes for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Baltimore now head to New England to take on the Patriots in a repeat of last year's AFC Championship game. On that occasion, the Patriots came out on top by a field goal and it promises to be another close battle between two teams who have shown themselves to be the cream of the AFC.
Ravens Offensive Star : Ray Rice - Flacco's completion percentage let's him down so I am siding with Rice who took charge when the game was on the line and got the Ravens into a position where they could kick a field goal.
Ravens Defensive Star : Corey Graham - Ray Lewis had another good game, making 17 tackles but I have to give it to Graham who made two huge interceptions, 8 tackles and 3 pass deflections. Lewis was good but Graham was the difference.
Broncos Offensive Star : Eric Decker - A lot of guys were below par for the Broncos but Decker had a decent game, catching 6 passes for 84 yards.
Broncos Defensive Star : Von Miller - Again there was nothing exceptional but Miller led the way with 9 tackles, half a sack and 2 hits on the quarterback.
Green Bay Packers 31-45 San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers made their second consecutive NFC Championship game after a good win over the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night. The game was close until the fourth quarter. The 49ers entered the fourth with a seven point lead and extended that to fourteen on the opening play of the quarter before sealing the win with three and a half minutes to go. The Packers responded with a touchdown but it was too little too late to stop the 49ers literally running away with the win.
The 49ers were deserving winners and one look at the statistics underlines how impressive they were. In all of the key areas they were better than Green Bay and when that happens there's not much anyone can do. They completely dominated time of possession, having the ball for just over 38 minutes. They had 200 yards of total offense more than the Packers and they were also better in the most important stat in football, turnovers. The 49ers turned the ball over once and the Packers turned it over twice. The passing numbers were similar with the 49ers throwing for just 8 more yards than the Packers but the big difference was on the ground where the 49ers totalled 323 yards.
Aaron Rodgers didn't have his best game of the season, completing 26 of 39 passes for 257 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. His interception was punished by the 49ers who picked up a touchdown from the following drive. Green Bay's other turnover also led to a touchdown, when Jeremy Ross muffed a punt return which was recovered by the 49ers at the Green Bay 9 yard line. In a game that was so tight for such a long time it would have to be questioned why the Packers didn't run the ball more often as they were picking up some good yards on the ground. DuJuan Harris ran for 53 yards and a touchdown from his 11 carries and the Packers ground game ended up picking up 6.5 yards per carry. If they had put a bit more faith in it, the result may have been different.
For the 49ers, Colin Kaepernick and Frank Gore were able to run the ball at will and beat up on the Packers defense. Kaepernick's numbers weren't that great in the air but he was very effective on the ground. He completed just 17 of his 31 pass attempts for 263 yards, 2 touchdowns and a pick six. However, he was able to make amends by rushing for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns from his 16 carries. He was in good company though and Frank Gore ran for 119 yards and a touchdown from his 23 carries. Gore also caught 2 passes for 48 yards which meant he was the 49ers second best receiver on the day. Michael Crabtree was the only one who put up better numbers, catching 9 passes for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The 49ers now head to Atlanta to take part in the NFC Championship game and they will be hoping for a better result than last year. In last year's NFC title game, the 49ers lost at home to the New York Giants courtesy of a Lawrence Tynes field goal in overtime. On paper the game looks like a cracker and I for one find it hard to make a call on who I think will win.
Packers Offensive Star : DuJuan Harris - Harris picked up 64 yards from his 11 touches of the ball.
Packers Defensive Star : Sam Shieds - Shields had a pick six, 4 tackles and 2 pass deflections.
49ers Offensive Star : Colin Kaepernick - Kaepernick threw for 263 yards, two touchdowns and ran for 181 yards and 2 more touchdowns so there could only be one winner.
49ers Defensive Star : Patrick Willis - Willis picked up 7 tackles, one for a loss and a sack to help the 49ers pick up the win.
Seattle Seahawks 28-30 Atlanta Falcons
This will go down as one of the best games I have ever saw. I'm not even a fan of either team and I was completely glued to my television and my nerves were shattered. As an NFL fan living in Ireland I often hear the old rubbish about how can you watch that, it's so slow, it's too stop start. If you know anyone who isn't a fan of the NFL, show them a video of this game. This is why American Football is my favourite sport. Credit to both teams, it was an absolute pleasure to watch.
In the first half the game looked over. The Falcons led 20-0 at half-time and looked very comfortable. The Seahawks got it back to 20-7 with a touchdown on the first drive of the second half but the Falcons responded with a touchdown on the next drive to extend the lead to 27-7. With just over seventeen minutes remaining in the game and a twenty point gap between the sides the game looked dead but thankfully for us neutrals, nobody told the Seahawks.
They got a quick touchdown early in the fourth quarter and then intercepted Matt Ryan on the next drive. Four plays later, they were in the end zone again and all of a sudden the gap was reduced to six points with over nine minutes on the clock. The next three drives never came to much and with the game still hanging in the balance, Seattle's offense came on the field with exactly three minutes remaining and were able to move the ball down the field and eventually into the end zone to take a one point lead with just 31 seconds remaining.
At this point I was fearing for Matt Ryan's career. The guy was already carrying a lot of baggage thanks to his 0-3 record in the playoffs but a defeat after leading by twenty points in the fourth quarter might just leave a deep enough scar to finish him off. However, they don't call him Matty Ice for nothing. He took to the field and made two big completions that got the Falcons down to the Seattle 31 yard line. Matt Bryant came onto the field and kicked a 49 yard field goal to put the Falcons back in the lead. Now the game had to be over? No, not quite. For some bizarre reason Matt Bosher tried an onside kick which the Seahawks recovered at their own 46 yard line. Seattle made a quick completion to get them a little further up the field so they could attempt an all or nothing Hail Mary as time was expiring. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, Russell Wilson made the pass a little earlier than they would have liked and Julio Jones was able to make the interception that won the game for the Falcons.
Russell Wilson ended the game with good numbers. He completed 24 of his 36 passes for 385 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. Wilson also led the running game with 60 yards and a touchdown from his 7 carries. Marshawn Lynch had a disappointing day on the ground, rushing for 46 yards and a touchdown at 2.9 yards per carry. Seattle's leading receivers were Zach Miller and Golden Tate. Miller made 8 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. Tate caught 6 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown.
Matt Ryan ended the game with mixed numbers. He completed 24 of his 35 passes for 250 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. There will be a lot of things he won't be happy with but ultimately when the game was on the line, he passed the test. His leading receiver was Roddy White who caught 5 passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. The biggest surprise in this game was the success the Falcons had on the ground. Prior to the game everyone was talking about the Falcons passing game but they ended up doing their best work on the ground. Michael Turner picked up 98 yards from 14 carries and Jacquizz Rodgers had 64 yards from 10 carries. The Falcons averaged 6.4 yards per carry which was a statistic I don't think anyone saw coming.
The defeat will no doubt have an impact on the Seahawks but they are a young team and from what I saw this season, they will be back again. However, if the Falcons had lost the game I think the scars would have been pretty deep for a few players and the franchise may well have made some changes. Luckily for them, they go the win and can look forward to hosting an NFC Championship game on Sunday.
Seahawks Offensive Star : Russell Wilson - Wilson accounted for 445 yards of offense and three touchdowns but it was too little, too late.
Seahawks Defensive Star : Bobby Wagner - Wagner picked up an interception, 8 tackles and a pass deflection.
Falcons Offensive Star : Michael Turner - Turner stepped up this week and averaged 7 yards per carry.
Falcons Defensive Star : Jonathan Babineaux - 3 tackles, one for a loss, a sack, 2 hits on the quarterback and a fumble recovery for the defensive tackle.
Houston Texans 28-41 New England Patriots
The fact that this game which had 69 points in it was the third highest scoring and the least entertaining game of the weekend goes to show what a special weekend we just had in the NFL. The eight teams who took part in the divisional round of the playoffs brought everything they had and left it all on the field. For myself and fans of all twenty-four neutral franchises, it was an excellent and entertaining weekend.
There wasn't anything wrong with this game and it was quite entertaining but for the most part it lacked the drama that the other three games had. In the first half the game looked to be getting away from the Texans but they managed to score ten points in the last 1:15 of the half to bring the scoreline to within four points. They were unable to keep that momentum going however and the Patriots scored two unanswered touchdowns in the third quarter and then another at the start of the fourth to stretch the lead to twenty-five points. The Texans had one last charge and got two quick touchdowns, the second also saw them successfully go for a two point conversion. By this stage the lead was reduced to ten points with over five minutes remaining. The Texans tried the onside kick which they had a chance of recovering but they failed to do so and from then the Patriots offense went on a clock killing drive which ended in a field goal. By the time the Texans got the ball back they were thirteen behind with just 1:14 on the clock and no timeouts. They were unable to get another score and once again it's the Patriots who will play the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC title game.
Statistically, the game was very tight and if anything the Texans had the better in quite a few categories although the game never really felt like that was the case. The one area were they did come second best was turnovers. They had one turnover which isn't the end of the world but it was one more than the Patriots had and as it happens, it was a costly one. The Texans were in field goal range and Matt Schaub threw a pick to Rob Ninkovich. What made matters even worse was that six plays later the Patriots were celebrating a touchdown. If you take that seven off the Pats and say the Texans had got a touchdown of their own. That's a fourteen point swing and suddenly it's Houston hosting next week's AFC Championship game.
Matt Schaub completed 34 of his 51 passes for 343 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. Once again his go to guys were Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. Johnson caught 8 passes for 95 yards and Daniels caught 9 passes for 81 yards. Arian Foster also had a good game and ended up with 153 yards from scrimmage. He ran for 90 yards and a touchdown and also caught 7 passes for 63 yards and a touchdown.
Tom Brady completed 25 of his 40 passes for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns. Brady targeted Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Shane Vereen. Welker caught 8 passes for 131 yards, Hernandez caught 6 passes for 85 yards and Shane Vereen caught 5 passes for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns. Vereen also got a touchdown on the ground to end with 124 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns. Stevan Ridley was the leading rusher, picking up 82 yards and a touchdown.
New England will now host this year's AFC Championship game which will be a repeat of last year's game. On that occasion the Patriots came out on top and as a neutral it would delight me equally to see either Tom Brady or Ray Lewis take to the field in New Orleans for Superbowl XLVII.
Texans Offensive Star : Arian Foster - Two touchdowns and 153 yards from scrimmage but it still wasn't enough for the Texans.
Texans Defensive Star : Bradie James - 11 tackles and one for a loss from the linebacker wasn't enough to stop the Patriots.
Patriots Offensive Star : Shane Vereen - The running-back had a career day by scoring more touchdowns on Sunday than he had so far in his career.
Patriots Defensive Star : Rob Ninkovich - 4 tackles, one for a loss, 2 pass deflections, a quarterback hit and an interception from the linebacker.
Sunday 13 January 2013
NFL PLAYOFFS - Sunday's Divisional Round Preview
Seattle Seahawks (12-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
Seattle and Atlanta start Sunday's divisional round match ups and it looks like being another fantastic day. Seattle earned their place here courtesy of a win over the Washington Redskins last week. The Seahawks got off to a slow start but they came back into it thanks to a great performance from their defense and their running game.
Unfortunately for the Seahawks that win came at a price. Defensive end, Chris Clemons picked up an injury that has ruled him out. Clemons absence will be a huge void to fill for the Seahawks. He leads the team in sacks (11.5) and this game was always going to come down to how much time Matt Ryan was going to get in the pocket. With Clemons now ruled out the momentum has took a huge swing in Atlanta's favour.
One advantage the Seahawks do have is Russell Wilson. He's a mobile quarterback, who although not as big as Cam Newton, is similar in that he will try to carry the ball down the field himself. The Falcons struggled with Newton during the regular season. Newton's best rushing games both came against the Falcons. If Wilson can get out of the pocket, he can take the ball down the field and as I see it, it's Seattle's best weapon.
Atlanta will look to put the game in the hands of their quarterback, Matt Ryan. Ryan has put up career numbers in the regular season, beating his previous best in yards, touchdowns and pass completion percentage. Ryan has a little extra pressure on him as he has never won a playoff game but as I've already said that statistic is a little bit flawed. All three teams he has played against in the playoffs have went to the Superbowl and two of the three have won the big one. He hasn't had much luck with his opponents and instead of concentrating on how many times Ryan has lost in the playoffs should we not be giving him a little bit of credit. Not many quarterbacks who have been in the NFL for five seasons are about to play in the playoffs for the fourth year. He's obviously doing something right and it's only a matter of time before he gets that first win.
The Falcons game plan will have changed with the injury to Chris Clemons. When they knew they were facing either the Seahawks or the Redskins they would have been looking for weaknesses to exploit. Prior to the injury the Falcons would have been looking to get the ball out quick but they won't face as strong a pass rush now which will open the field up for Julio Jones and Roddy White. If Ryan can get into his stride early he can find those two and they could lead him to that elusive first playoff win.
A look at the match ups would suggest that the Seahawks have a chance here. They were 3rd in running the ball and their defense was also strong, ranking 6th against the pass and 10th against the run. Their passing game was poor, ranking just 27th but they were 32nd for a long time and as the weeks have gone by they have trusted Wilson more and he hasn't let them down. The Falcons ranked 6th in passing and 29th in rushing. Their defense was 23rd against the pass and 21st against the run. The Falcons didn't do a great job of sacking the opponent's quarterback, picking up just 29 sacks (28th in the NFL) and I can't see that improving today. They will be more than happy to stop Wilson getting first downs rather than getting to him behind the line of scrimmage. The Falcons have done a decent job of protecting Ryan, allowing just 28 sacks.
Prediction - With Clemons, I would have gone for Seattle but momentum has swung far enough for me to change my mind and go with Matt Ryan getting his first playoff win.
Houston Texans (13-4) @ New England Patriots (12-4)
The divisional round ends in New England with a potentially great match up. This game should really be in Houston but the Texans collapsed in the regular season, losing three of their last four games. Prior to that, the Texans looked certain to be the AFC's top seed but the loss of form cost them and meant they had to host the Cincinnati Bengals in last week's wildcard round. The Texans got the win in that one but it was far from impressive and they will need to improve a lot if they are to beat the Patriots.
The Patriots are an interesting prospect this season. They have always had a good passing game but their running game and run defense are good this year too. In recent years the Patriots have been quite one dimensional, although their passing game was good enough to get them to a Superbowl last year but this year they can let their running game take some extra responsibility and their defense is also a bit better. They are still not great defending the pass but after last night's results they now only have to defend Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco for a trip to another Superbowl. Neither of those two are known for their passing and both have strong running-backs to help them out.
Another big strength for the Patriots is turnovers. They have turned the ball over just 16 times and their defense has forced 41 turnovers. They have also done a good job of protecting Tom Brady and have allowed him to be sacked just 27 times. The Texans are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to sacks though so it will be one of the key battles where the game will be won and lost. The Patriots come into the game in good form, having won nine of their last ten games. They picked up a big win over the Texans in week 14 and Houston will have their hands full if they want to spring a surprise.
The Texans have had a good year statistically. Their passing game was 11th, running game was 8th, pass defense was 16th and run defense was 7th. They also sacked the opponents quarterback 44 times which ranked 5th in the NFL and they only allowed their quarterback to be sacked 28 times which was 7th best in the league. They forced 29 turnovers and gave the ball away 17 times. Based on that the Texans are one of the best teams in the league but the problem I have is they have slowed down a lot in recent weeks and in my opinion they peaked too early.
There is a few question marks over how healthy the Patriots are heading into this one. A lot of their key players have been listed on injury reports this week and it remains to be seen what sort of condition they are in. I wouldn't be totally surprised if all the injured players took to the field tonight and that this was simply the latest in a long line of mind games from Bill Belichick.
Prediction - This should be a tight game but on current form I have to go with the home team, Patriots win.
Seattle and Atlanta start Sunday's divisional round match ups and it looks like being another fantastic day. Seattle earned their place here courtesy of a win over the Washington Redskins last week. The Seahawks got off to a slow start but they came back into it thanks to a great performance from their defense and their running game.
Unfortunately for the Seahawks that win came at a price. Defensive end, Chris Clemons picked up an injury that has ruled him out. Clemons absence will be a huge void to fill for the Seahawks. He leads the team in sacks (11.5) and this game was always going to come down to how much time Matt Ryan was going to get in the pocket. With Clemons now ruled out the momentum has took a huge swing in Atlanta's favour.
One advantage the Seahawks do have is Russell Wilson. He's a mobile quarterback, who although not as big as Cam Newton, is similar in that he will try to carry the ball down the field himself. The Falcons struggled with Newton during the regular season. Newton's best rushing games both came against the Falcons. If Wilson can get out of the pocket, he can take the ball down the field and as I see it, it's Seattle's best weapon.
Atlanta will look to put the game in the hands of their quarterback, Matt Ryan. Ryan has put up career numbers in the regular season, beating his previous best in yards, touchdowns and pass completion percentage. Ryan has a little extra pressure on him as he has never won a playoff game but as I've already said that statistic is a little bit flawed. All three teams he has played against in the playoffs have went to the Superbowl and two of the three have won the big one. He hasn't had much luck with his opponents and instead of concentrating on how many times Ryan has lost in the playoffs should we not be giving him a little bit of credit. Not many quarterbacks who have been in the NFL for five seasons are about to play in the playoffs for the fourth year. He's obviously doing something right and it's only a matter of time before he gets that first win.
The Falcons game plan will have changed with the injury to Chris Clemons. When they knew they were facing either the Seahawks or the Redskins they would have been looking for weaknesses to exploit. Prior to the injury the Falcons would have been looking to get the ball out quick but they won't face as strong a pass rush now which will open the field up for Julio Jones and Roddy White. If Ryan can get into his stride early he can find those two and they could lead him to that elusive first playoff win.
A look at the match ups would suggest that the Seahawks have a chance here. They were 3rd in running the ball and their defense was also strong, ranking 6th against the pass and 10th against the run. Their passing game was poor, ranking just 27th but they were 32nd for a long time and as the weeks have gone by they have trusted Wilson more and he hasn't let them down. The Falcons ranked 6th in passing and 29th in rushing. Their defense was 23rd against the pass and 21st against the run. The Falcons didn't do a great job of sacking the opponent's quarterback, picking up just 29 sacks (28th in the NFL) and I can't see that improving today. They will be more than happy to stop Wilson getting first downs rather than getting to him behind the line of scrimmage. The Falcons have done a decent job of protecting Ryan, allowing just 28 sacks.
Prediction - With Clemons, I would have gone for Seattle but momentum has swung far enough for me to change my mind and go with Matt Ryan getting his first playoff win.
Houston Texans (13-4) @ New England Patriots (12-4)
The divisional round ends in New England with a potentially great match up. This game should really be in Houston but the Texans collapsed in the regular season, losing three of their last four games. Prior to that, the Texans looked certain to be the AFC's top seed but the loss of form cost them and meant they had to host the Cincinnati Bengals in last week's wildcard round. The Texans got the win in that one but it was far from impressive and they will need to improve a lot if they are to beat the Patriots.
The Patriots are an interesting prospect this season. They have always had a good passing game but their running game and run defense are good this year too. In recent years the Patriots have been quite one dimensional, although their passing game was good enough to get them to a Superbowl last year but this year they can let their running game take some extra responsibility and their defense is also a bit better. They are still not great defending the pass but after last night's results they now only have to defend Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco for a trip to another Superbowl. Neither of those two are known for their passing and both have strong running-backs to help them out.
Another big strength for the Patriots is turnovers. They have turned the ball over just 16 times and their defense has forced 41 turnovers. They have also done a good job of protecting Tom Brady and have allowed him to be sacked just 27 times. The Texans are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to sacks though so it will be one of the key battles where the game will be won and lost. The Patriots come into the game in good form, having won nine of their last ten games. They picked up a big win over the Texans in week 14 and Houston will have their hands full if they want to spring a surprise.
The Texans have had a good year statistically. Their passing game was 11th, running game was 8th, pass defense was 16th and run defense was 7th. They also sacked the opponents quarterback 44 times which ranked 5th in the NFL and they only allowed their quarterback to be sacked 28 times which was 7th best in the league. They forced 29 turnovers and gave the ball away 17 times. Based on that the Texans are one of the best teams in the league but the problem I have is they have slowed down a lot in recent weeks and in my opinion they peaked too early.
There is a few question marks over how healthy the Patriots are heading into this one. A lot of their key players have been listed on injury reports this week and it remains to be seen what sort of condition they are in. I wouldn't be totally surprised if all the injured players took to the field tonight and that this was simply the latest in a long line of mind games from Bill Belichick.
Prediction - This should be a tight game but on current form I have to go with the home team, Patriots win.
Saturday 12 January 2013
Saturday's Divisional Round Games
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) @ Denver Broncos (13-3)
Baltimore travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in the AFC's divisional round opener. The Broncos have the number one seed and home advantage right to the Superbowl. They have earned that with eleven consecutive victories to finish 13-3 for the season. They were in the playoffs last year and got to this same stage but they made a franchise changing signing by bringing in Peyton Manning and look better for it. At the time it was seen as a gamble as Manning was coming back from several neck surgeries and many experts had written him off. A slow start only increased the pressure on him but it doesn't seem to matter to Manning. He began to find his form after a few games and ended up having one of the best seasons of his career. This year will mean a lot to Manning as I'm sure there would have been doubts in his own mind when he was struggling with injury and what could be a better end to a great season than to win a Superbowl in the city he was born in and where his father spent the bulk of his career. It would be the perfect end to a fantastic year for the Broncos quarterback.
The Ravens have their own romantic story. Legendary linebacker, Ray Lewis has confirmed that this will be his last season in the NFL and how fitting would it be if he ended it with a ring in Superbowl XLVII. He has already played his last game in Baltimore which was an emotional occasion and that emotion will carry over each week now as every time he takes to the field, he knows it could potentially be his last game. Lewis has had a great career which has saw him win a Superbowl, Superbowl MVP, Defensive Player of the Year (twice), voted into the Pro Bowl thirteen times and named as an All-Pro seven times. Those are the numbers of a Hall of Famer and there can be no doubt that regardless of how this year ends, Lewis is worthy of a place in the hall.
Last week the Ravens picked up a win over the Indianapolis Colts but they didn't have it all their own way. The Colts completed dominated possession and had the ball for over 37 minutes but were unable to finish off their drives. If Baltimore are going to have any chance, they need to restrict Peyton Manning's time on the field as much as they possibly can. If Manning gets the ball for 37 minutes, you can be sure he wouldn't waste the opportunity and would put at least 40 points on the board. The Ravens need to keep the clock moving, which means plenty of running plays, plenty of short passes and if they can do that, then they can give themselves a chance.
The problem the Ravens have is the Broncos have got one of the best defenses in the league. They ranked 3rd in the regular season in both pass defense and run defense, giving up an average of just 290.7 yards per game which was the second best record in the NFL. They gave up just 18.1 points per game which was 4th and they sacked the opponents quarterback 52 times which was the best in the league. That's a great return and with a defense as mean as that, you are halfway to having a good shot at a title. The other half required is a good offense and Denver are right up there in that category too. They are averaging just under 400 yards a game which is fourth in the league and they are scoring 30.1 points per game which is second in the NFL, behind the New England Patriots. A big reason for that success is the protection they have been giving Peyton Manning. They have allowed just 21 sacks this season which is the second best record in the league. When any quarterback gets protection like that, he will hurt the opposition but when you have an elite quarterback like Manning getting that sort of protection, that's the stuff Superbowl's are made of.
When I look at the match ups, it doesn't look good for the Ravens. The only place they have an edge is turnovers. The Ravens have done a good job of taking care of the football, turning it over just 16 times in the regular season. The Broncos defense's one weakness is they have only forced 24 turnovers but when you're sacking the quarterback as much as they do, he doesn't get to throw many interceptions. Denver have turned the ball over 25 times and the Ravens defense forced 25 in the regular season. The problem is, I can't see them getting enough pressure on Manning to force him into the mistakes they need him to make.
Prediction - I really fancy the Broncos for the Superbowl and can't see the Ravens giving them too much trouble.
Green Bay Packers (12-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
This is the game I am looking forward to the most this weekend. It should be an absolute cracker between two strong sides. They met in Green Bay in the opening weekend of the season and on that occasion the 49ers came out on top. A lot has changed since then though and for me the Packers have improved and the 49ers have weakened.
Green Bay got here courtesy of a comfortable win over the Minnesota Vikings in last week's wildcard round. They done a decent job of restricting Adrian Peterson to 99 yards and Joe Webb had a terrible day, completing just over a third of his passes. The Packers were solid without ever really being exceptional but they done enough to beat a misfiring Vikings. Aaron Rodgers completed 23 of 33 passes for 274 yards and a touchdown. The Packers are almost back at full strength now and will be a match for anyone in the NFC as long as they can get their best players on the field.
The 49ers have been at the centre of a lot of controversy as a result of changing their quarterback half way through the season. Colin Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith after Smith got injured against the Rams in week 10. I've made it clear in the past that I don't think it was the right move and had many a debate with NFL fans about it but I will stand by my comments and say that I believe Alex Smith was the best option for the 49ers this year. The 49ers system requires a quarterback who is required to make short, accurate passes and that job is done better by Alex Smith. They both attempted 218 passes this year with Smith completing 153 compared to Kaepernick's 136. Smith had more touchdowns and ended the season with a higher QB rating. There can be no doubt that Kaepernick brings more in the ground game but there has been a drop in Frank Gore's numbers since Kaepernick came in and I can't believe that anyone would want Kaepernick carrying the ball down the field instead of Gore.
The match ups are quite intriguing as well. The 49ers have a very strong defense and ranked 4th in both pass defense and run defense. More interesting though is the fact that they weren't particularly impressive in sacks or turnovers. Most top defenses are very good at one or the other but the 49ers are mid table in both. They are giving up 294 yards per game which is excellent and ranks 3rd in the NFL. They are 4th in rushing but the passing game hasn't been great and ranked 23rd in the regular season. A big part of this game hangs on the 49ers defense getting to Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been sacked a lot this year but the 49ers haven't been great in getting to the quarterback. The 49ers defense have 38 sacks this year and when you consider Aldon Smith got 19.5 on his own, the numbers aren't that great. Aldon Smith's productivity has dropped in recent weeks since Justin Smith's injury and with the news that both are only listed as probable for this game I would worry about what Aaron Rodgers could do to the 49ers.
Green Bay will play their usual game. They will primarily look to pass the ball and will only run it to keep the defense honest. They ran the ball a lot more last week but that was more to do with how the game was playing out. Over the season the Packers have attempted to pass on over 56% of their plays but I would expect that figure to be a bit higher tomorrow night.
Prediction - This game will be decided on who wins the battle between the Packers offensive line and the 49ers defensive line. If the Packers win that battle, they will win this game easily. If it's an even battle, the Packers will win in a tight win. I'm going to put my faith in Aaron Rodgers finding a way of getting it done and sending Green Bay to the NFC title game.
Baltimore travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in the AFC's divisional round opener. The Broncos have the number one seed and home advantage right to the Superbowl. They have earned that with eleven consecutive victories to finish 13-3 for the season. They were in the playoffs last year and got to this same stage but they made a franchise changing signing by bringing in Peyton Manning and look better for it. At the time it was seen as a gamble as Manning was coming back from several neck surgeries and many experts had written him off. A slow start only increased the pressure on him but it doesn't seem to matter to Manning. He began to find his form after a few games and ended up having one of the best seasons of his career. This year will mean a lot to Manning as I'm sure there would have been doubts in his own mind when he was struggling with injury and what could be a better end to a great season than to win a Superbowl in the city he was born in and where his father spent the bulk of his career. It would be the perfect end to a fantastic year for the Broncos quarterback.
The Ravens have their own romantic story. Legendary linebacker, Ray Lewis has confirmed that this will be his last season in the NFL and how fitting would it be if he ended it with a ring in Superbowl XLVII. He has already played his last game in Baltimore which was an emotional occasion and that emotion will carry over each week now as every time he takes to the field, he knows it could potentially be his last game. Lewis has had a great career which has saw him win a Superbowl, Superbowl MVP, Defensive Player of the Year (twice), voted into the Pro Bowl thirteen times and named as an All-Pro seven times. Those are the numbers of a Hall of Famer and there can be no doubt that regardless of how this year ends, Lewis is worthy of a place in the hall.
Last week the Ravens picked up a win over the Indianapolis Colts but they didn't have it all their own way. The Colts completed dominated possession and had the ball for over 37 minutes but were unable to finish off their drives. If Baltimore are going to have any chance, they need to restrict Peyton Manning's time on the field as much as they possibly can. If Manning gets the ball for 37 minutes, you can be sure he wouldn't waste the opportunity and would put at least 40 points on the board. The Ravens need to keep the clock moving, which means plenty of running plays, plenty of short passes and if they can do that, then they can give themselves a chance.
The problem the Ravens have is the Broncos have got one of the best defenses in the league. They ranked 3rd in the regular season in both pass defense and run defense, giving up an average of just 290.7 yards per game which was the second best record in the NFL. They gave up just 18.1 points per game which was 4th and they sacked the opponents quarterback 52 times which was the best in the league. That's a great return and with a defense as mean as that, you are halfway to having a good shot at a title. The other half required is a good offense and Denver are right up there in that category too. They are averaging just under 400 yards a game which is fourth in the league and they are scoring 30.1 points per game which is second in the NFL, behind the New England Patriots. A big reason for that success is the protection they have been giving Peyton Manning. They have allowed just 21 sacks this season which is the second best record in the league. When any quarterback gets protection like that, he will hurt the opposition but when you have an elite quarterback like Manning getting that sort of protection, that's the stuff Superbowl's are made of.
When I look at the match ups, it doesn't look good for the Ravens. The only place they have an edge is turnovers. The Ravens have done a good job of taking care of the football, turning it over just 16 times in the regular season. The Broncos defense's one weakness is they have only forced 24 turnovers but when you're sacking the quarterback as much as they do, he doesn't get to throw many interceptions. Denver have turned the ball over 25 times and the Ravens defense forced 25 in the regular season. The problem is, I can't see them getting enough pressure on Manning to force him into the mistakes they need him to make.
Prediction - I really fancy the Broncos for the Superbowl and can't see the Ravens giving them too much trouble.
Green Bay Packers (12-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
This is the game I am looking forward to the most this weekend. It should be an absolute cracker between two strong sides. They met in Green Bay in the opening weekend of the season and on that occasion the 49ers came out on top. A lot has changed since then though and for me the Packers have improved and the 49ers have weakened.
Green Bay got here courtesy of a comfortable win over the Minnesota Vikings in last week's wildcard round. They done a decent job of restricting Adrian Peterson to 99 yards and Joe Webb had a terrible day, completing just over a third of his passes. The Packers were solid without ever really being exceptional but they done enough to beat a misfiring Vikings. Aaron Rodgers completed 23 of 33 passes for 274 yards and a touchdown. The Packers are almost back at full strength now and will be a match for anyone in the NFC as long as they can get their best players on the field.
The 49ers have been at the centre of a lot of controversy as a result of changing their quarterback half way through the season. Colin Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith after Smith got injured against the Rams in week 10. I've made it clear in the past that I don't think it was the right move and had many a debate with NFL fans about it but I will stand by my comments and say that I believe Alex Smith was the best option for the 49ers this year. The 49ers system requires a quarterback who is required to make short, accurate passes and that job is done better by Alex Smith. They both attempted 218 passes this year with Smith completing 153 compared to Kaepernick's 136. Smith had more touchdowns and ended the season with a higher QB rating. There can be no doubt that Kaepernick brings more in the ground game but there has been a drop in Frank Gore's numbers since Kaepernick came in and I can't believe that anyone would want Kaepernick carrying the ball down the field instead of Gore.
The match ups are quite intriguing as well. The 49ers have a very strong defense and ranked 4th in both pass defense and run defense. More interesting though is the fact that they weren't particularly impressive in sacks or turnovers. Most top defenses are very good at one or the other but the 49ers are mid table in both. They are giving up 294 yards per game which is excellent and ranks 3rd in the NFL. They are 4th in rushing but the passing game hasn't been great and ranked 23rd in the regular season. A big part of this game hangs on the 49ers defense getting to Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been sacked a lot this year but the 49ers haven't been great in getting to the quarterback. The 49ers defense have 38 sacks this year and when you consider Aldon Smith got 19.5 on his own, the numbers aren't that great. Aldon Smith's productivity has dropped in recent weeks since Justin Smith's injury and with the news that both are only listed as probable for this game I would worry about what Aaron Rodgers could do to the 49ers.
Green Bay will play their usual game. They will primarily look to pass the ball and will only run it to keep the defense honest. They ran the ball a lot more last week but that was more to do with how the game was playing out. Over the season the Packers have attempted to pass on over 56% of their plays but I would expect that figure to be a bit higher tomorrow night.
Prediction - This game will be decided on who wins the battle between the Packers offensive line and the 49ers defensive line. If the Packers win that battle, they will win this game easily. If it's an even battle, the Packers will win in a tight win. I'm going to put my faith in Aaron Rodgers finding a way of getting it done and sending Green Bay to the NFC title game.
Wednesday 9 January 2013
NFL - Sunday's Wildcard Games Review
Indianapolis Colts 9-24 Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens picked up a win over the Indianapolis Colts in Ray Lewis' last game at M & T Bank Stadium, to set up a divisional round trip to Denver. The first half was extremely tight but the Ravens got there in the head with a strong second half showing.
Indianapolis had their chances but they were unable to take them and Andrew Luck was let down by his receivers who struggled all day. The Colts dominated the time of possession but the big difference was that they went 0-3 in the red zone compared to the Ravens who went 3-5. If the Colts had converted at least two of those it would have made the game a bit more interesting for the neutral. It wasn't to be however and instead the Colts will now reflect on an emotional year where the team's personnel was completely turned over and they also went through the emotional roller coaster that surrounded Coach Pagano's battle with leukemia.
Andrew Luck ended the game with 28 completions from 54 pass attempts for 288 yards and an interception. I know his receivers weren't great but I am starting to think people might be over rating him. He has hovered around that completion rate of just over 50% all year. To throw for over 4000 yards was a great achievement for him but when you consider he threw the ball 627 times and had a pass completion percentage that was worse than Mark Sanchez, he suddenly doesn't look as good as people seem to think. One thing I will give him credit for is his play after the interception. He chased Cary Williams right down the field and made the tackle to stop a certain touchdown. Most quarterbacks would have let the ball get to the end zone instead of making the tackle. Reggie Wayne was the leading receiver again, catching 9 passes for 114 yards. Vick Ballard had another good day on the ground, running for 91 yards from 22 carries.
Joe Flacco's completion percentage could have been better (52%) but other than that his numbers were solid. He completed 12 of 23 passes for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns. His best receiver was Anquan Boldin who had an excellent game. Boldin caught 5 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens also done a lot of damage on the ground. They totaled 172 yards on the ground and it was Bernard Pierce who done the bulk of the damage. Pierce ran for 103 yards from just 13 carries. He was assisted by Ray Rice who had a good game, rushing for 70 yards from 15 carries.
The Ravens will now face the NFL's in form team when they travel to Denver to take on the Broncos. It will be a big ask for the Ravens who lost at home to the Broncos in week 15. A win would certainly not be beyond them but it would take every man on the roster performing to the maximum of their potential. Either way one of two great veterans will be heading to the AFC Championship game but the question is, will it be Ray Lewis or Peyton Manning?
Colts Offensive Star : Reggie Wayne - The veteran receiver caught 9 passes for 114 yards to end what was a very good year for him.
Colts Defensive Star : Antoine Bethea - The safety made 10 tackles in what was a bad day for the Colts defense.
Ravens Offensive Star : Anquan Boldin - Boldin made 5 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown which was a good return but when you watch the catches a time or two, some of them really were outstanding.
Ravens Defensive Star : Paul Kruger - It was between Kruger and Lewis who both had good days but for me Kruger was the difference. He made 4 tackles but it was the problems he gave Andrew Luck that got him the nod. He picked up 2.5 sacks and also had 5 hits on the quarterback. If he can do that in Denver, then the Ravens have a chance.
Seattle Seahawks 24-14 Washington Redskins
The Seahawks picked up a big win in Washington to keep their Superbowl hopes alive. They got off to the worst possible start, going 14-0 behind by the end of the first quarter. Things weren't looking good for the Seahawks at that stage but they got themselves back into it with a strong second quarter and then secured the win in the fourth.
It's easy to say with hindsight but Redskins head coach, Mike Shanahan had an absolute nightmare. Quarterback, Robert Griffin III, took a knock in the drive that put the Redskins 14-0 up. As time went on it became clear that the injury was serious and it was effecting his performance. Shanahan didn't seem to care and left Griffin in the game. In the end, Griffin's knee finally gave in and seemed to go from underneath him. The result was RG3's knee having to be completely rebuilt. Shanahan said that Griffin told him he wanted to play. As a coach, does he just let anyone who wants to play, play? If Kirk Cousins came to him and said I want to play, does he do it? Of course he doesn't. He is there to make these decisions on behalf of the Washington Redskins and he didn't do it on Sunday night. He let Griffin down, the other players down and the future of the Washington Redskins down. A blind man could see that Griffin was hurt and was performing below his usual standards but Shanahan seems more concerned about winning now than the long term future of the franchise.
RG3 ended the game with 84 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. He also managed 21 yards on the ground. Alfred Morris was the lead rusher, picking up 80 yards from his 16 carries. The leading receiver was Pierre Garcon with 4 catches for 50 yards. The Redskins will have a long off season now to think about what might have been and most of the questions will be about RG3's future. This is his second serious knee injury and my initial thoughts are that he most likely won't be the same again.
Seattle done well after the first quarter and their offense and defense were completely dominant. Russell Wilson had a solid game completing 15 of 26 passes for 187 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for 67 yards from 8 carries. Seattle's receivers were led by Zach Miller who caught 4 passes for 48 yards. Marshawn Lynch had another great game, rushing for 132 yards and a touchdown from just 20 carries.
The win for Seattle sees them travel to Atlanta to take on the NFC's number one seed, the Atlanta Falcons. If Seattle turn up and play like they did in the first quarter, the Falcons will finish them off and their season will be over. If it's the Seattle who finished the game, they might just hand Matt Ryan yet another playoff defeat. The defense looked scary good after their first quarter blip and Matt Ryan is prone to the odd multiple interception game and if it's going to happen, it will happen against a defense that is as aggressive as the Seahawks.
Seahawks Offensive Star : Marshawn Lynch - Lynch had another big day rushing for 132 yards and a touchdown at 6.6 yards per carry. In this form Lynch can be a danger to any defense.
Seahawks Defensive Star : Bobby Wagner - The linebacker made 9 tackles including one for a loss in a fine display.
Redskins Offensive Star : Alfred Morris - 80 rushing yards at 5 yards per carry was a good return from the rookie, unfortunately he was on his own.
Redskins Defensive Star : Reed Doughty - 13 tackles, 2 sacks, deflected a pass and hit the quarterback twice, it's all in a days work for Doughty.
The Ravens picked up a win over the Indianapolis Colts in Ray Lewis' last game at M & T Bank Stadium, to set up a divisional round trip to Denver. The first half was extremely tight but the Ravens got there in the head with a strong second half showing.
Indianapolis had their chances but they were unable to take them and Andrew Luck was let down by his receivers who struggled all day. The Colts dominated the time of possession but the big difference was that they went 0-3 in the red zone compared to the Ravens who went 3-5. If the Colts had converted at least two of those it would have made the game a bit more interesting for the neutral. It wasn't to be however and instead the Colts will now reflect on an emotional year where the team's personnel was completely turned over and they also went through the emotional roller coaster that surrounded Coach Pagano's battle with leukemia.
Andrew Luck ended the game with 28 completions from 54 pass attempts for 288 yards and an interception. I know his receivers weren't great but I am starting to think people might be over rating him. He has hovered around that completion rate of just over 50% all year. To throw for over 4000 yards was a great achievement for him but when you consider he threw the ball 627 times and had a pass completion percentage that was worse than Mark Sanchez, he suddenly doesn't look as good as people seem to think. One thing I will give him credit for is his play after the interception. He chased Cary Williams right down the field and made the tackle to stop a certain touchdown. Most quarterbacks would have let the ball get to the end zone instead of making the tackle. Reggie Wayne was the leading receiver again, catching 9 passes for 114 yards. Vick Ballard had another good day on the ground, running for 91 yards from 22 carries.
Joe Flacco's completion percentage could have been better (52%) but other than that his numbers were solid. He completed 12 of 23 passes for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns. His best receiver was Anquan Boldin who had an excellent game. Boldin caught 5 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens also done a lot of damage on the ground. They totaled 172 yards on the ground and it was Bernard Pierce who done the bulk of the damage. Pierce ran for 103 yards from just 13 carries. He was assisted by Ray Rice who had a good game, rushing for 70 yards from 15 carries.
The Ravens will now face the NFL's in form team when they travel to Denver to take on the Broncos. It will be a big ask for the Ravens who lost at home to the Broncos in week 15. A win would certainly not be beyond them but it would take every man on the roster performing to the maximum of their potential. Either way one of two great veterans will be heading to the AFC Championship game but the question is, will it be Ray Lewis or Peyton Manning?
Colts Offensive Star : Reggie Wayne - The veteran receiver caught 9 passes for 114 yards to end what was a very good year for him.
Colts Defensive Star : Antoine Bethea - The safety made 10 tackles in what was a bad day for the Colts defense.
Ravens Offensive Star : Anquan Boldin - Boldin made 5 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown which was a good return but when you watch the catches a time or two, some of them really were outstanding.
Ravens Defensive Star : Paul Kruger - It was between Kruger and Lewis who both had good days but for me Kruger was the difference. He made 4 tackles but it was the problems he gave Andrew Luck that got him the nod. He picked up 2.5 sacks and also had 5 hits on the quarterback. If he can do that in Denver, then the Ravens have a chance.
Seattle Seahawks 24-14 Washington Redskins
The Seahawks picked up a big win in Washington to keep their Superbowl hopes alive. They got off to the worst possible start, going 14-0 behind by the end of the first quarter. Things weren't looking good for the Seahawks at that stage but they got themselves back into it with a strong second quarter and then secured the win in the fourth.
It's easy to say with hindsight but Redskins head coach, Mike Shanahan had an absolute nightmare. Quarterback, Robert Griffin III, took a knock in the drive that put the Redskins 14-0 up. As time went on it became clear that the injury was serious and it was effecting his performance. Shanahan didn't seem to care and left Griffin in the game. In the end, Griffin's knee finally gave in and seemed to go from underneath him. The result was RG3's knee having to be completely rebuilt. Shanahan said that Griffin told him he wanted to play. As a coach, does he just let anyone who wants to play, play? If Kirk Cousins came to him and said I want to play, does he do it? Of course he doesn't. He is there to make these decisions on behalf of the Washington Redskins and he didn't do it on Sunday night. He let Griffin down, the other players down and the future of the Washington Redskins down. A blind man could see that Griffin was hurt and was performing below his usual standards but Shanahan seems more concerned about winning now than the long term future of the franchise.
RG3 ended the game with 84 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. He also managed 21 yards on the ground. Alfred Morris was the lead rusher, picking up 80 yards from his 16 carries. The leading receiver was Pierre Garcon with 4 catches for 50 yards. The Redskins will have a long off season now to think about what might have been and most of the questions will be about RG3's future. This is his second serious knee injury and my initial thoughts are that he most likely won't be the same again.
Seattle done well after the first quarter and their offense and defense were completely dominant. Russell Wilson had a solid game completing 15 of 26 passes for 187 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for 67 yards from 8 carries. Seattle's receivers were led by Zach Miller who caught 4 passes for 48 yards. Marshawn Lynch had another great game, rushing for 132 yards and a touchdown from just 20 carries.
The win for Seattle sees them travel to Atlanta to take on the NFC's number one seed, the Atlanta Falcons. If Seattle turn up and play like they did in the first quarter, the Falcons will finish them off and their season will be over. If it's the Seattle who finished the game, they might just hand Matt Ryan yet another playoff defeat. The defense looked scary good after their first quarter blip and Matt Ryan is prone to the odd multiple interception game and if it's going to happen, it will happen against a defense that is as aggressive as the Seahawks.
Seahawks Offensive Star : Marshawn Lynch - Lynch had another big day rushing for 132 yards and a touchdown at 6.6 yards per carry. In this form Lynch can be a danger to any defense.
Seahawks Defensive Star : Bobby Wagner - The linebacker made 9 tackles including one for a loss in a fine display.
Redskins Offensive Star : Alfred Morris - 80 rushing yards at 5 yards per carry was a good return from the rookie, unfortunately he was on his own.
Redskins Defensive Star : Reed Doughty - 13 tackles, 2 sacks, deflected a pass and hit the quarterback twice, it's all in a days work for Doughty.
Sunday 6 January 2013
NFL SATURDAY WILDCARD GAMES REVIEW
Cincinnati Bengals 13-19 Houston Texans
The Texans set up a divisional round meeting with the New England Patriots by beating the Cincinnati Bengals in Saturday's opening playoff clash. Houston weren't impressive however and unless they can finish off their drives, they will be leaving Foxboro disappointed. The Texans had no problems moving the football but once they got into Cincinnati territory they struggled and ended up kicking four field goals. They had 420 yards of offense and just 19 points to show for it which isn't good enough. Field goals won't beat Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.
The Bengals Superbowl dreams have now been ended in Houston for the second year in a row and to be honest the final score flattered them. They were very poor in the first half but thanks to a good interception from Leon Hall, they went into the locker room trailing by just two points. They showed a little more in the second half and managed to drive up the field on two occasions to score field goals from 34 and 47 yards but they always looked second best and if they had of stole the game at the end it would have been a huge injustice.
Andy Dalton had a poor game, completing just 14 of his 30 passes for 127 yards and an interception. He was also sacked twice. The Bengals were having some joy running the ball. BenJarvus Green-Ellis picked up 63 yards from just 11 carries. That equates to 5.7 yards per carry and in a game that was decided by less than a touchdown it would have to be asked why he wasn't given more carries. After a quiet first half AJ Green got involved in the second half and ended the game with 5 catches for 80 yards but it wasn't enough and the Bengals will have to come back again next year and have another go at winning a playoff game.
Matt Schaub had a decent game apart from the pick six in the first half. He ended up completing 29 of his 38 passes for 262 yards and the interception. There's still something about him though and when I watch him I always feel like a mistake is just waiting to happen. He doesn't inspire confidence and I can't see him leading the team to a Superbowl. Once again Arian Foster was the offensive star for the Texans and he had a very busy day. Foster carried the ball 32 times for 140 yards and a touchdown. He also caught eight passes for 34 yards to give him 174 yards from scrimmage. Foster caught and carried the ball forty times and there's no way he can keep that up right to the Superbowl so if the Texans are going to go the distance, they will have to get him some help. Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson also had decent games. Daniels caught 9 passes for 91 yards and Johnson caught 4 passes for 62 yards.
On the day, the Texans will be delighted to have got the job done but there is a lot of room for improvement and if they can't fix their issues by next week it will be another divisional round exit for this Texans team.
Bengals Offensive Star : BenJarvus Green-Ellis - He averaged 5.7 yards per carry on the ground and should have saw more action. I know he was carrying an injury but if you can't push yourself that bit extra in the playoffs then when can you?
Bengals Defensive Star : Reggie Nelson - He was the one Bengal who troubled the Texans. He picked up 10 tackles, 2 for a loss and also got a hit on the quarterback.
Texans Offensive Star : Arian Foster - Who else? 40 touches, 174 yards and a touchdown from scrimmage. It was a great performance from the veteran.
Texans Defensive Star : Johnathan Joseph - It was either him or JJ Watt but I sided with Joseph as not only did he get 5 tackles, broke up two passes and picked up an interception but he did all that whilst keeping AJ Green relatively quiet.
Minnesota Vikings 10-24 Green Bay Packers
The Packers started their playoff campaign with a comfortable win over the Minnesota Vikings. The Packers outplayed the Vikings in all areas and fully deserved their win. The Vikings were dealt a blow before kick off when Christian Ponder was ruled out with a triceps injury. His backup, Joe Webb struggled and had no answer to the Packers defense.
The Vikings started the game well and with the dual threat of Webb and Adrian Peterson, they were able to run the ball at will and kicked a field goal on their opening drive. it was all downhill from there though and the next time the Vikings scored was late in the fourth quarter and the game was well out of their reach by that stage. The Packers had scored 24 points in between the Vikings scores and Minnesota can have no complaints, they simply lost to a better team.
The running game for the Vikings was fine. Peterson and Webb combined for 167 yards on the ground at 5.8 yards per carry. The problem for the Vikings was when they had to let Webb throw the ball. His numbers were terrible and the crazy thing is, they actually flattered his performance. He completed just 11 of 30 passes for 180 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Those numbers include a fifty yard touchdown pass, a 30 yard completion and a 23 yard completion at the end of the game with the Vikings well and truly beat. He was also lucky to get away with just the one interception as he threw a few dodgy passes and in particular one when he was about to get sacked and he just tossed the ball in the air towards the Packers defensive line. He got away with it but he was very fortunate. Adrian Peterson ended the game with 99 yards on the ground and also caught a pass for 8 yards. Michael Jenkins was the leading receiver, catching 3 passes for 96 yards and a touchdown.
The Packers had a good game on both sides of the ball and were very comfortable winners in the end. Aaron Rodgers threw for 274 yards and a touchdown. The running game wasn't great but they did manage to pick up the yards when required. DuJuan Harris and John Kuhn both picked up rushing touchdowns but it was in the air that the majority of the damage was done. One of the Packers strengths is that Aaron Rodgers has so many options to choose from and that was underlined by the fact that ten different Packers caught a pass in the game. Running-back, DuJuan Harris didn't have a huge game on the ground, rushing for 47 yards from 17 carries but he was very effective as a receiver, catching 5 passes for 53 yards to give him 100 yards from scrimmage.
The Packers seem to be hitting form at the right time and I cannot wait for them to play the 49ers next week. These two met in the first game of the season. The 49ers won in Green Bay on that occasion. In my opinion, the Packers are a better team now than they were then and the 49ers don't look as strong but next weeks game is in San Francisco, so it is very much in the balance.
Vikings Offensive Star : Adrian Peterson - He was the one bright spark but he didn't have much help. The final numbers show Michael Jenkins played well but his good work came when the game was over as a contest.
Vikings Defensive Star : Chad Greenway - The linebacker tried his best but his 11 tackles weren't enough to stop a rampant Green Bay offense.
Packers Offensive Star : Aaron Rodgers - He has more to give but he done what he had to and led his team to the next round with the minimum of fuss.
Packers Defensive Star : Clay Matthews - Matthews had an excellent game picking up 4 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 hits on the quarterback and he also recovered the ball which he had knocked out of Webb's hands for a fumble.
The Texans set up a divisional round meeting with the New England Patriots by beating the Cincinnati Bengals in Saturday's opening playoff clash. Houston weren't impressive however and unless they can finish off their drives, they will be leaving Foxboro disappointed. The Texans had no problems moving the football but once they got into Cincinnati territory they struggled and ended up kicking four field goals. They had 420 yards of offense and just 19 points to show for it which isn't good enough. Field goals won't beat Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.
The Bengals Superbowl dreams have now been ended in Houston for the second year in a row and to be honest the final score flattered them. They were very poor in the first half but thanks to a good interception from Leon Hall, they went into the locker room trailing by just two points. They showed a little more in the second half and managed to drive up the field on two occasions to score field goals from 34 and 47 yards but they always looked second best and if they had of stole the game at the end it would have been a huge injustice.
Andy Dalton had a poor game, completing just 14 of his 30 passes for 127 yards and an interception. He was also sacked twice. The Bengals were having some joy running the ball. BenJarvus Green-Ellis picked up 63 yards from just 11 carries. That equates to 5.7 yards per carry and in a game that was decided by less than a touchdown it would have to be asked why he wasn't given more carries. After a quiet first half AJ Green got involved in the second half and ended the game with 5 catches for 80 yards but it wasn't enough and the Bengals will have to come back again next year and have another go at winning a playoff game.
Matt Schaub had a decent game apart from the pick six in the first half. He ended up completing 29 of his 38 passes for 262 yards and the interception. There's still something about him though and when I watch him I always feel like a mistake is just waiting to happen. He doesn't inspire confidence and I can't see him leading the team to a Superbowl. Once again Arian Foster was the offensive star for the Texans and he had a very busy day. Foster carried the ball 32 times for 140 yards and a touchdown. He also caught eight passes for 34 yards to give him 174 yards from scrimmage. Foster caught and carried the ball forty times and there's no way he can keep that up right to the Superbowl so if the Texans are going to go the distance, they will have to get him some help. Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson also had decent games. Daniels caught 9 passes for 91 yards and Johnson caught 4 passes for 62 yards.
On the day, the Texans will be delighted to have got the job done but there is a lot of room for improvement and if they can't fix their issues by next week it will be another divisional round exit for this Texans team.
Bengals Offensive Star : BenJarvus Green-Ellis - He averaged 5.7 yards per carry on the ground and should have saw more action. I know he was carrying an injury but if you can't push yourself that bit extra in the playoffs then when can you?
Bengals Defensive Star : Reggie Nelson - He was the one Bengal who troubled the Texans. He picked up 10 tackles, 2 for a loss and also got a hit on the quarterback.
Texans Offensive Star : Arian Foster - Who else? 40 touches, 174 yards and a touchdown from scrimmage. It was a great performance from the veteran.
Texans Defensive Star : Johnathan Joseph - It was either him or JJ Watt but I sided with Joseph as not only did he get 5 tackles, broke up two passes and picked up an interception but he did all that whilst keeping AJ Green relatively quiet.
Minnesota Vikings 10-24 Green Bay Packers
The Packers started their playoff campaign with a comfortable win over the Minnesota Vikings. The Packers outplayed the Vikings in all areas and fully deserved their win. The Vikings were dealt a blow before kick off when Christian Ponder was ruled out with a triceps injury. His backup, Joe Webb struggled and had no answer to the Packers defense.
The Vikings started the game well and with the dual threat of Webb and Adrian Peterson, they were able to run the ball at will and kicked a field goal on their opening drive. it was all downhill from there though and the next time the Vikings scored was late in the fourth quarter and the game was well out of their reach by that stage. The Packers had scored 24 points in between the Vikings scores and Minnesota can have no complaints, they simply lost to a better team.
The running game for the Vikings was fine. Peterson and Webb combined for 167 yards on the ground at 5.8 yards per carry. The problem for the Vikings was when they had to let Webb throw the ball. His numbers were terrible and the crazy thing is, they actually flattered his performance. He completed just 11 of 30 passes for 180 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Those numbers include a fifty yard touchdown pass, a 30 yard completion and a 23 yard completion at the end of the game with the Vikings well and truly beat. He was also lucky to get away with just the one interception as he threw a few dodgy passes and in particular one when he was about to get sacked and he just tossed the ball in the air towards the Packers defensive line. He got away with it but he was very fortunate. Adrian Peterson ended the game with 99 yards on the ground and also caught a pass for 8 yards. Michael Jenkins was the leading receiver, catching 3 passes for 96 yards and a touchdown.
The Packers had a good game on both sides of the ball and were very comfortable winners in the end. Aaron Rodgers threw for 274 yards and a touchdown. The running game wasn't great but they did manage to pick up the yards when required. DuJuan Harris and John Kuhn both picked up rushing touchdowns but it was in the air that the majority of the damage was done. One of the Packers strengths is that Aaron Rodgers has so many options to choose from and that was underlined by the fact that ten different Packers caught a pass in the game. Running-back, DuJuan Harris didn't have a huge game on the ground, rushing for 47 yards from 17 carries but he was very effective as a receiver, catching 5 passes for 53 yards to give him 100 yards from scrimmage.
The Packers seem to be hitting form at the right time and I cannot wait for them to play the 49ers next week. These two met in the first game of the season. The 49ers won in Green Bay on that occasion. In my opinion, the Packers are a better team now than they were then and the 49ers don't look as strong but next weeks game is in San Francisco, so it is very much in the balance.
Vikings Offensive Star : Adrian Peterson - He was the one bright spark but he didn't have much help. The final numbers show Michael Jenkins played well but his good work came when the game was over as a contest.
Vikings Defensive Star : Chad Greenway - The linebacker tried his best but his 11 tackles weren't enough to stop a rampant Green Bay offense.
Packers Offensive Star : Aaron Rodgers - He has more to give but he done what he had to and led his team to the next round with the minimum of fuss.
Packers Defensive Star : Clay Matthews - Matthews had an excellent game picking up 4 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 hits on the quarterback and he also recovered the ball which he had knocked out of Webb's hands for a fumble.
Saturday 5 January 2013
NFL PLAYOFFS - Sunday's Wildcard Games
Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Sunday's AFC wildcard game is similar to Saturday's as the wild card team come into it in better form. The Colts have won five of their last six games and the Ravens have only won one of their last five.
Indianapolis did finish with a better record than the Ravens this season but the Texans were even better and won the AFC South which meant the Colts had to rely on a wildcard. It has been a remarkable turnaround from the Colts after they finished last year as the worst team in the NFL. They got rid of a lot of their older players last year and brought in youngsters in an attempt to build for the future. I'm sure when they were building this team they would have set a target of a playoff place in two or three years time but they have managed to get their within a year and the future looks bright for the Colts and rookie quarterback, Andrew Luck.
The Colts were very good at home, winning seven games and they managed to finish .500 on the road to secure the number five seed in the AFC. The Colts had a decent record against playoff teams in the regular season, winning three of their five games. The one worry for the Colts is that all three wins came at home and their two defeats came on the road. The problem for the Colts is they hold the fifth seed so they will have to go on the road in the playoffs and will find it difficult.
The Colts were all about Andrew Luck. Everything good that they done, involved the rookie. Their passing game was ranked 7th in the NFL. They were in the bottom half in all the other statistics. Their running game was 22nd, their pass defense was 21st and their run defense was 29th. Andrew Luck didn't even get much help from his offensive line as they allowed 41 sacks which was the 10th worst record in the league. This resulted in turnovers and the Colts gave the ball away 27 times. The defense wasn't great either and they only managed to force 15 turnovers all year and sack the opponents quarterback 32 times.
The Ravens are in poor form and a few weeks ago they were in the race to earn a bye in the wildcard round but four defeats in five games has saw them drop to the AFC's fourth seed. The Ravens finished the season with a 10-6 record, which saw them win six at home and four on the road. Against playoff teams they have gone 2-3. Both of their wins came at home and they went 0-2 on the road.
This Ravens team hasn't been great all season and in my opinion they are underusing Ray Rice. Rice is an elite running-back but I don't think he got a big enough workload in the regular season. Having said that, the Ravens have made it to the playoffs without pushing him too hard and I expect him to be busy on Sunday. Rice is built to play playoff football and if the Ravens are to do well, they will have to give him as much of the ball as they can.
The Ravens biggest strength this year was taking care of the football. They turned the ball over on 16 occasions which is tied for the second best record in the league. The Ravens defense isn't as strong as it has been in recent seasons. They rank 17th against the pass and 20th against the run. They have produced 37 sacks this year which is 15th in the league. In recent years the Ravens have always had a tough defense but this particular unit isn't quite at the high level we are used to seeing from Ravens defenses.
Prediction - This will be a tight game between two sides who regardless of Sunday's results, I can't see progressing beyond the divisional round. I think these are the weakest sides in the AFC playoffs and would take any of the other four teams to beat them. The Colts are quite one dimensional and will throw the ball. They aren't great at protecting their quarterback but then again the Ravens haven't been known for their pass rush this year. My worry for the Colts is turnovers. Andrew Luck has thrown 18 interceptions this year and it is a massive problem for the Colts. I have gone on about teams taking care of the football all year and while I was looking at the statistics during the week I found a very interesting one. In both the AFC and the NFC, the five teams who have turned the ball over the least have reached the playoffs. That's five out of the six teams in each Conference which only underlines how important it is to take care of the football in the NFL. For those interested, the two teams who made the playoffs despite being outside the top five in this category were the Colts and the Vikings. If I was coaching the Ravens my game plan would be simple. Give the ball to Ray Rice and let him run all over the 29th run defense in the league. To this point John Harbaugh hasn't given Rice a huge workload but I think he will give him the ball in this game and it will lead to a Baltimore win.
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Washington Redskins (10-6)
The wildcard round finishes with a battle between two of the NFL's most exciting rookie quarterbacks. Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III have set the NFL alight this year with some spectacular plays and it seems fitting that they should face off for a place in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Seattle have reached this point with an 11-5 record and they have looked excellent in recent weeks, winning seven of their last eight games. Seattle were perfect at home, winning all eight games. They weren't as impressive on the road though and went 3-5. The Seahawks played against five playoff teams in the regular season and won four of the games, with their only loss coming in a tight game in San Francisco. Seattle's five defeats were all tight and their biggest loss was by seven points in that defeat to the 49ers.
Seattle look like a good old fashioned playoff team. They have the strong defense and the strong running game that used to be the criteria to win a Superbowl so it will be interesting to see how they get on in what has become a passing league. The Seahawks finished 3rd in rushing and their defense were 6th against the pass and 10th against the run. The passing game wasn't great and ranked 27th in the league but that was more to do with the play calling. Russell Wilson completed 64.1% of his passes and the Seahawks simply preferred to run the ball and the low rank is not a reflection on Wilson's play. Wilson ended the regular season with 26 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions which is a respectable ratio. The Seahawks also done well in relation to turnovers. The offense gave the ball away 18 times and the defense forced 31 turnovers, both of which were the 4th best records in the NFC.
The Redskins gave up a lot to trade up in the 2012 draft to take Robert Griffin III but he has repaid them with a playoff place and an NFC East title in his rookie season. RG3 is a special player and will surely go on to win multiple titles. He had a bit of a mixed start and although he was playing well, the Redskins weren't getting the results. They were 3-6 and looked to be heading towards another bad season but things clicked into place for them and they won their last seven games to finish 10-6 and take the divisional title. The Redskins faced four playoff teams this year, all at home. They split the four games, beating Minnesota and Baltimore but losing to Cincinnati and Atlanta.
The Redskins were all about the running game this year and rookie duo, RG3 and Alfred Morris led the team to an average of 169 yards per game on the ground. They also done better than any other team in the league in what I would describe as the most important statistic in football, turnovers. The Redskins turned the ball over just 14 times and that is a remarkable statistic for a team with a rookie quarterback. The Redskins defense were good at defending the run and ranked 5th in the league. They weren't so good at defending the pass though and ranked 30th. This was partially because they were unable to get a lot of pressure on the opposing quarterback. They picked up 32 sacks which was 23rd in the league. Their strength on defense was picking off the opposing quarterbacks and they had 21 interceptions.
Prediction - This game looks like being a cracker. Both offenses are a pleasure to watch and if nothing else at least we are guaranteed at least one more week of either RG3 or Wilson. Both sides will favour the run and both also have strong run defenses. Seattle seem to be trusting Wilson more and more as the season goes on and with receivers like Sidney Rice and Golden Tate on the field they can take advantage of a poor Washington pass defense. On paper, the Seahawks are the better team and I think they will get the win to keep their Superbowl dreams alive.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
AFC
Wildcard RoundHouston Texans over the Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens over the Indianapolis Colts
Divisional Round
Denver Broncos over the Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots over the Houston Texans
AFC Championship
Denver Broncos over the New England Patriots
NFC
Wildcard RoundGreen Bay Packers over the Minnesota Vikings
Seattle Seahawks over the Washington Redskins
Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks over the Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers over the San Francisco 49ers
NFC Championship
Green Bay Packers over the Seattle Seahawks
SUPERBOWL
Denver Broncos over the Green Bay Packers
NFL PLAYOFF CHALLENGE
This is your final chance to join the blog's private league in this year's NFL Playoff Challenge. Just click the following link.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
Sunday's AFC wildcard game is similar to Saturday's as the wild card team come into it in better form. The Colts have won five of their last six games and the Ravens have only won one of their last five.
Indianapolis did finish with a better record than the Ravens this season but the Texans were even better and won the AFC South which meant the Colts had to rely on a wildcard. It has been a remarkable turnaround from the Colts after they finished last year as the worst team in the NFL. They got rid of a lot of their older players last year and brought in youngsters in an attempt to build for the future. I'm sure when they were building this team they would have set a target of a playoff place in two or three years time but they have managed to get their within a year and the future looks bright for the Colts and rookie quarterback, Andrew Luck.
The Colts were very good at home, winning seven games and they managed to finish .500 on the road to secure the number five seed in the AFC. The Colts had a decent record against playoff teams in the regular season, winning three of their five games. The one worry for the Colts is that all three wins came at home and their two defeats came on the road. The problem for the Colts is they hold the fifth seed so they will have to go on the road in the playoffs and will find it difficult.
The Colts were all about Andrew Luck. Everything good that they done, involved the rookie. Their passing game was ranked 7th in the NFL. They were in the bottom half in all the other statistics. Their running game was 22nd, their pass defense was 21st and their run defense was 29th. Andrew Luck didn't even get much help from his offensive line as they allowed 41 sacks which was the 10th worst record in the league. This resulted in turnovers and the Colts gave the ball away 27 times. The defense wasn't great either and they only managed to force 15 turnovers all year and sack the opponents quarterback 32 times.
The Ravens are in poor form and a few weeks ago they were in the race to earn a bye in the wildcard round but four defeats in five games has saw them drop to the AFC's fourth seed. The Ravens finished the season with a 10-6 record, which saw them win six at home and four on the road. Against playoff teams they have gone 2-3. Both of their wins came at home and they went 0-2 on the road.
This Ravens team hasn't been great all season and in my opinion they are underusing Ray Rice. Rice is an elite running-back but I don't think he got a big enough workload in the regular season. Having said that, the Ravens have made it to the playoffs without pushing him too hard and I expect him to be busy on Sunday. Rice is built to play playoff football and if the Ravens are to do well, they will have to give him as much of the ball as they can.
The Ravens biggest strength this year was taking care of the football. They turned the ball over on 16 occasions which is tied for the second best record in the league. The Ravens defense isn't as strong as it has been in recent seasons. They rank 17th against the pass and 20th against the run. They have produced 37 sacks this year which is 15th in the league. In recent years the Ravens have always had a tough defense but this particular unit isn't quite at the high level we are used to seeing from Ravens defenses.
Prediction - This will be a tight game between two sides who regardless of Sunday's results, I can't see progressing beyond the divisional round. I think these are the weakest sides in the AFC playoffs and would take any of the other four teams to beat them. The Colts are quite one dimensional and will throw the ball. They aren't great at protecting their quarterback but then again the Ravens haven't been known for their pass rush this year. My worry for the Colts is turnovers. Andrew Luck has thrown 18 interceptions this year and it is a massive problem for the Colts. I have gone on about teams taking care of the football all year and while I was looking at the statistics during the week I found a very interesting one. In both the AFC and the NFC, the five teams who have turned the ball over the least have reached the playoffs. That's five out of the six teams in each Conference which only underlines how important it is to take care of the football in the NFL. For those interested, the two teams who made the playoffs despite being outside the top five in this category were the Colts and the Vikings. If I was coaching the Ravens my game plan would be simple. Give the ball to Ray Rice and let him run all over the 29th run defense in the league. To this point John Harbaugh hasn't given Rice a huge workload but I think he will give him the ball in this game and it will lead to a Baltimore win.
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Washington Redskins (10-6)
The wildcard round finishes with a battle between two of the NFL's most exciting rookie quarterbacks. Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III have set the NFL alight this year with some spectacular plays and it seems fitting that they should face off for a place in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Seattle have reached this point with an 11-5 record and they have looked excellent in recent weeks, winning seven of their last eight games. Seattle were perfect at home, winning all eight games. They weren't as impressive on the road though and went 3-5. The Seahawks played against five playoff teams in the regular season and won four of the games, with their only loss coming in a tight game in San Francisco. Seattle's five defeats were all tight and their biggest loss was by seven points in that defeat to the 49ers.
Seattle look like a good old fashioned playoff team. They have the strong defense and the strong running game that used to be the criteria to win a Superbowl so it will be interesting to see how they get on in what has become a passing league. The Seahawks finished 3rd in rushing and their defense were 6th against the pass and 10th against the run. The passing game wasn't great and ranked 27th in the league but that was more to do with the play calling. Russell Wilson completed 64.1% of his passes and the Seahawks simply preferred to run the ball and the low rank is not a reflection on Wilson's play. Wilson ended the regular season with 26 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions which is a respectable ratio. The Seahawks also done well in relation to turnovers. The offense gave the ball away 18 times and the defense forced 31 turnovers, both of which were the 4th best records in the NFC.
The Redskins gave up a lot to trade up in the 2012 draft to take Robert Griffin III but he has repaid them with a playoff place and an NFC East title in his rookie season. RG3 is a special player and will surely go on to win multiple titles. He had a bit of a mixed start and although he was playing well, the Redskins weren't getting the results. They were 3-6 and looked to be heading towards another bad season but things clicked into place for them and they won their last seven games to finish 10-6 and take the divisional title. The Redskins faced four playoff teams this year, all at home. They split the four games, beating Minnesota and Baltimore but losing to Cincinnati and Atlanta.
The Redskins were all about the running game this year and rookie duo, RG3 and Alfred Morris led the team to an average of 169 yards per game on the ground. They also done better than any other team in the league in what I would describe as the most important statistic in football, turnovers. The Redskins turned the ball over just 14 times and that is a remarkable statistic for a team with a rookie quarterback. The Redskins defense were good at defending the run and ranked 5th in the league. They weren't so good at defending the pass though and ranked 30th. This was partially because they were unable to get a lot of pressure on the opposing quarterback. They picked up 32 sacks which was 23rd in the league. Their strength on defense was picking off the opposing quarterbacks and they had 21 interceptions.
Prediction - This game looks like being a cracker. Both offenses are a pleasure to watch and if nothing else at least we are guaranteed at least one more week of either RG3 or Wilson. Both sides will favour the run and both also have strong run defenses. Seattle seem to be trusting Wilson more and more as the season goes on and with receivers like Sidney Rice and Golden Tate on the field they can take advantage of a poor Washington pass defense. On paper, the Seahawks are the better team and I think they will get the win to keep their Superbowl dreams alive.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
AFC
Wildcard RoundHouston Texans over the Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens over the Indianapolis Colts
Divisional Round
Denver Broncos over the Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots over the Houston Texans
AFC Championship
Denver Broncos over the New England Patriots
NFC
Wildcard RoundGreen Bay Packers over the Minnesota Vikings
Seattle Seahawks over the Washington Redskins
Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks over the Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers over the San Francisco 49ers
NFC Championship
Green Bay Packers over the Seattle Seahawks
SUPERBOWL
Denver Broncos over the Green Bay Packers
NFL PLAYOFF CHALLENGE
This is your final chance to join the blog's private league in this year's NFL Playoff Challenge. Just click the following link.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
Friday 4 January 2013
NFL PLAYOFFS - Saturday's Wildcard Games
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) @ Houston Texans (12-4)
The NFL playoffs kick off on Saturday night with an AFC clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Houston Texans.
The Bengals are the AFC's sixth seed but they come into this game in better form than the Texans. Cincinnati have won seven of their last eight to reach the playoffs, including their last four on the road. Going on the road won't be a problem for this Bengals team as they have a better record than they do at home. They are 6-2 on the road and 4-4 at home. The Bengals faced four of their fellow playoff teams in the regular season and had a 2-2 record (1-1 home and 1-1 road).
As good as the Bengals were on offense, their defense is the main reason they are in the playoffs. They ranked 7th in pass defense and 12th against the run. They also sacked the opposition's quarterback 51 times (3rd most in the NFL) and forced 30 turnovers (2nd most in the AFC). The offense has built on the success of the defense, ranking 17th in passing and 18th in rushing. A key part to this game will be how the Bengals offensive line copes with the Texans pass rush. The Bengals have allowed 46 sacks this year which is 26th in the league. The Texans have sacked the opposing quarterback on 44 occasions and it something the Bengals will have to deal with.
Houston come into this game as the AFC's third seed but it's not something they will be proud of. The Texans led the AFC all year but three defeats in their last four games has saw them drop below Denver and New England, who now occupy the top two seeds and have the bye week that comes with it. The Texans have no time to feel sorry for themselves and have to sort the issues quick or their season will be over.
Houston started the season very well and looked like the best team in the league. However, the bye week seemed to kill off the momentum they had built up and although they still won more than they lost, the level of performance dropped around that time. Over the course of the season the Texans played seven of their playoff rivals, winning only three and losing four.
Statistically, the Texans had a good year. The offense was 11th in passing and 8th in rushing. The defense was 16th against the pass and 7th against the run. The defense sacked the opposing quarterback 44 times (5th in the NFL) and they managed to force 29 turnovers (3rd in the AFC). The offensive line done a good job this year and only allowed 28 sacks which was 7th best in the league. The offense done a good job of taking care of the football and only gave the ball away 17 times (3rd in AFC).
Prediction - This is a tough one to call. Both sides are good on defense and sacking the quarterback is a strong point for both of them. Houston look to be better at protecting their quarterback than the Bengals so they should have the edge in that area. Cincinnati's chances will rest heavily on the availability of running-back, BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He is questionable for the game and if he doesn't play it would mean the Bengals will be a one dimensional offense. The Texans also have the edge in the turnovers battle, having turned the balled over nine times less than the Bengals. Ultimately, my decision is do I go with the in-form team or the better team? If both teams bring their best game, the Texans will win. They haven't been in great form but this is the time of year when you win or you go home. With everything on the line, I think the Texans will get it done and set up a trip to New England next weekend.
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ Green Bay Packers (11-5)
These NFC North rivals face off for the second week in a row in the NFC's opening playoff game on Saturday night. Last week the Vikings were at home and they got the win they needed to secure a playoff place. Minnesota's win combined with the 49ers win meant the Packers dropped to the third seed in the NFC and set up this game between two big rivals.
Minnesota were 6-6 but won their last four to earn a playoff place. The Vikings got to the playoffs mostly because of a good home record where they won seven of their eight games. They didn't fare so well on their travels and they finished 3-5 on the road. In fairness to them, their five defeats were to four teams who reached the playoffs and the Bears who would have got there if the Vikings had lost any of those last four games. The Vikings final record against playoff teams was 3-4 although two of those wins were at home and as the sixth seed, the one thing I can guarantee is the Vikings won't host any playoff games.
The Vikings biggest asset this season was Adrian Peterson who got to within nine yards of beating the single season rushing record set by Eric Dickerson in 1984. There's every chance Peterson will break that record before the end of his career but if he doesn't and after his playing days are finished, he will no doubt be gutted at missing the record by such a small margin. Peterson already has his place in history as one of the greatest running-back's of all time but to break the record would have increased his legacy further.
Peterson aside, the Vikings statistics weren't overly impressive. Their passing game was 31st overall, the defense was 24th against the pass and the run defense was 11th. They forced just 22 turnovers (12th in the NFC) and turned the ball over themselves on 23 occasions (9th in the NFC). One of their strengths was the pass rush and they sacked the quarterback 44 times which was 5th in the league.
Green Bay finished the season 11-5 and won the NFC North. If they had won last week in Minnesota this game would be between the San Francisco 49ers and the Chicago Bears. However, the Packers lost and it allowed the San Francisco 49ers to pass them and earn a bye as the NFC's two seed. The Packers are in reasonable form, having won four in a row prior to last week's defeat. Like the Vikings they had a good home record and also won seven of their eight home games. The difference between the sides was the Packers picked up an extra win on the road to finish 4-4. The Packers didn't have a great record against teams who reached the playoffs, winning just two of their six games.
This Packers side relies a lot on Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. Rodgers is a fantastic quarterback and when he is on song, he is the best in the league. The one problem he has had this year is getting protection from his offensive line. The Packers have allowed 51 sacks and only the Arizona Cardinals have allowed more. Their defense have been doing their best to counteract this and have managed to pick up 47 sacks which is 4th best in the NFL. One thing the Packers have been very good at is taking care of the football. They have turned the ball over on just 16 occasions this season which is tied for second best in the league.
Prediction - The Packers are the better side here but they two issues. They need to stop Adrian Peterson and they need to keep Aaron Rodgers on his feet. In the two games this year with the Vikings they haven't done a great job of either. Adrian Peterson has ran for a total of 409 yards, two touchdowns and he also caught a touchdown pass in the week 17 game. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked a total of 7 times in the two games and the Packers can't afford that number to increase much higher. These two sides have a clear identity and it just happens that both teams preference on offense, is the other teams weakness on defense. The Vikings have the 2nd ranked running game in the league and they will go up against a Packers run defense that ranked 17th. The Packers will look to pass the ball and their passing game ranked 9th in the regular season. The Vikings pass defense was 24th in the NFL so they will struggle to cope with Aaron Rodgers if he finds his form. Generally teams will give a little bit more in the playoffs and if both teams play to their potential, which I think they will, then the Packers will win this one.
NFL Playoff Challenge
It is not too late to join my league on nfl.com. The NFL Playoff Challenge is a great game and fun to play. If you already have a team, just click the link at the end of this paragraph to enter. If you haven't already set up a team, I would encourage you to do so.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
The NFL playoffs kick off on Saturday night with an AFC clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Houston Texans.
The Bengals are the AFC's sixth seed but they come into this game in better form than the Texans. Cincinnati have won seven of their last eight to reach the playoffs, including their last four on the road. Going on the road won't be a problem for this Bengals team as they have a better record than they do at home. They are 6-2 on the road and 4-4 at home. The Bengals faced four of their fellow playoff teams in the regular season and had a 2-2 record (1-1 home and 1-1 road).
As good as the Bengals were on offense, their defense is the main reason they are in the playoffs. They ranked 7th in pass defense and 12th against the run. They also sacked the opposition's quarterback 51 times (3rd most in the NFL) and forced 30 turnovers (2nd most in the AFC). The offense has built on the success of the defense, ranking 17th in passing and 18th in rushing. A key part to this game will be how the Bengals offensive line copes with the Texans pass rush. The Bengals have allowed 46 sacks this year which is 26th in the league. The Texans have sacked the opposing quarterback on 44 occasions and it something the Bengals will have to deal with.
Houston come into this game as the AFC's third seed but it's not something they will be proud of. The Texans led the AFC all year but three defeats in their last four games has saw them drop below Denver and New England, who now occupy the top two seeds and have the bye week that comes with it. The Texans have no time to feel sorry for themselves and have to sort the issues quick or their season will be over.
Houston started the season very well and looked like the best team in the league. However, the bye week seemed to kill off the momentum they had built up and although they still won more than they lost, the level of performance dropped around that time. Over the course of the season the Texans played seven of their playoff rivals, winning only three and losing four.
Statistically, the Texans had a good year. The offense was 11th in passing and 8th in rushing. The defense was 16th against the pass and 7th against the run. The defense sacked the opposing quarterback 44 times (5th in the NFL) and they managed to force 29 turnovers (3rd in the AFC). The offensive line done a good job this year and only allowed 28 sacks which was 7th best in the league. The offense done a good job of taking care of the football and only gave the ball away 17 times (3rd in AFC).
Prediction - This is a tough one to call. Both sides are good on defense and sacking the quarterback is a strong point for both of them. Houston look to be better at protecting their quarterback than the Bengals so they should have the edge in that area. Cincinnati's chances will rest heavily on the availability of running-back, BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He is questionable for the game and if he doesn't play it would mean the Bengals will be a one dimensional offense. The Texans also have the edge in the turnovers battle, having turned the balled over nine times less than the Bengals. Ultimately, my decision is do I go with the in-form team or the better team? If both teams bring their best game, the Texans will win. They haven't been in great form but this is the time of year when you win or you go home. With everything on the line, I think the Texans will get it done and set up a trip to New England next weekend.
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ Green Bay Packers (11-5)
These NFC North rivals face off for the second week in a row in the NFC's opening playoff game on Saturday night. Last week the Vikings were at home and they got the win they needed to secure a playoff place. Minnesota's win combined with the 49ers win meant the Packers dropped to the third seed in the NFC and set up this game between two big rivals.
Minnesota were 6-6 but won their last four to earn a playoff place. The Vikings got to the playoffs mostly because of a good home record where they won seven of their eight games. They didn't fare so well on their travels and they finished 3-5 on the road. In fairness to them, their five defeats were to four teams who reached the playoffs and the Bears who would have got there if the Vikings had lost any of those last four games. The Vikings final record against playoff teams was 3-4 although two of those wins were at home and as the sixth seed, the one thing I can guarantee is the Vikings won't host any playoff games.
The Vikings biggest asset this season was Adrian Peterson who got to within nine yards of beating the single season rushing record set by Eric Dickerson in 1984. There's every chance Peterson will break that record before the end of his career but if he doesn't and after his playing days are finished, he will no doubt be gutted at missing the record by such a small margin. Peterson already has his place in history as one of the greatest running-back's of all time but to break the record would have increased his legacy further.
Peterson aside, the Vikings statistics weren't overly impressive. Their passing game was 31st overall, the defense was 24th against the pass and the run defense was 11th. They forced just 22 turnovers (12th in the NFC) and turned the ball over themselves on 23 occasions (9th in the NFC). One of their strengths was the pass rush and they sacked the quarterback 44 times which was 5th in the league.
Green Bay finished the season 11-5 and won the NFC North. If they had won last week in Minnesota this game would be between the San Francisco 49ers and the Chicago Bears. However, the Packers lost and it allowed the San Francisco 49ers to pass them and earn a bye as the NFC's two seed. The Packers are in reasonable form, having won four in a row prior to last week's defeat. Like the Vikings they had a good home record and also won seven of their eight home games. The difference between the sides was the Packers picked up an extra win on the road to finish 4-4. The Packers didn't have a great record against teams who reached the playoffs, winning just two of their six games.
This Packers side relies a lot on Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. Rodgers is a fantastic quarterback and when he is on song, he is the best in the league. The one problem he has had this year is getting protection from his offensive line. The Packers have allowed 51 sacks and only the Arizona Cardinals have allowed more. Their defense have been doing their best to counteract this and have managed to pick up 47 sacks which is 4th best in the NFL. One thing the Packers have been very good at is taking care of the football. They have turned the ball over on just 16 occasions this season which is tied for second best in the league.
Prediction - The Packers are the better side here but they two issues. They need to stop Adrian Peterson and they need to keep Aaron Rodgers on his feet. In the two games this year with the Vikings they haven't done a great job of either. Adrian Peterson has ran for a total of 409 yards, two touchdowns and he also caught a touchdown pass in the week 17 game. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked a total of 7 times in the two games and the Packers can't afford that number to increase much higher. These two sides have a clear identity and it just happens that both teams preference on offense, is the other teams weakness on defense. The Vikings have the 2nd ranked running game in the league and they will go up against a Packers run defense that ranked 17th. The Packers will look to pass the ball and their passing game ranked 9th in the regular season. The Vikings pass defense was 24th in the NFL so they will struggle to cope with Aaron Rodgers if he finds his form. Generally teams will give a little bit more in the playoffs and if both teams play to their potential, which I think they will, then the Packers will win this one.
NFL Playoff Challenge
It is not too late to join my league on nfl.com. The NFL Playoff Challenge is a great game and fun to play. If you already have a team, just click the link at the end of this paragraph to enter. If you haven't already set up a team, I would encourage you to do so.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
Wednesday 2 January 2013
GJ Sports Blog - 2012 NFL Regular Season Results
NFL PREDICTIONS - RESULTS
For the regular readers of my blog, you will know I posted predictions in my preview's. Here is the complete list of results on a weekly basis.
Week 1 - 13-3
Week 2 - 11-5
Week 3 - 5-11
Week 4 - 11-4
Week 5 - 10-4
Week 6 - 8-6
Week 7 - 9-4
Week 8 - 7-7
Week 9 - 12-1 (Forgot to predict Thursday Night Football)
Week 10 - 11-3
Week 11 - 7-7
Week 12 - 10-6
Week 13 - 10-6
Week 14 - 11-5
Week 15 - 7-9
Week 16 - 13-3
Week 17 - 11-5
Total = 166-89 (forgot one game)
Percentage = 0.651
Overall, I think I could have done better but just under two thirds isn't a bad record and I now have a target to aim for next season.
As well as the weekly game by game predictions I also done a preview before the start of the season were I predicted each teams record for the year. The full article can be found here:
http://gjsportsblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/nfl-2012-season-preview.html
Below is a summary of how I got on.
Exactly correct - 2 (Buccaneers, Titans)
One win away - 4 (Bears, Cardinals, Jets, Raiders)
Two wins away - 8 (Packers, Giants, Cowboys, Falcons, Saints, Ravens, Browns, Jaguars)
Two and a half wins away - 2 (49ers, Rams)
Three Wins Away - 5 (Panthers, Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, Chargers)
Four Wins Away - 4 (Steelers, Bengals, Texans, Colts)
Five Wins Away - 2 (Broncos, Chiefs)
Six Wins Away - 3 (Eagles, Redskins, Seahawks)
Seven Wins Away - 1 (Vikings)
Eight Wins Away - 1 (Lions)
Again I'm not really sure how good or bad that is as I have nothing to compare it to but I will try to better it next season.
The one thing I do have something to compare is the teams I picked to qualify for the playoffs and my Superbowl prediction. I saved the predictions of five writers from a well known Football website and have compared my result with theirs.
I managed to pick out six (Packers, Falcons, 49ers, Patriots, Texans, Ravens) of the twelve playoff teams. Of the six I got wrong (Steelers, Chargers, Bills, Giants, Lions, Bears), only three of them got close (Steelers, Giants, Bears). The other three I was miles off with.
The six teams I did not predict to reach the playoffs were Seattle, Washington, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Denver. For four of those teams I overestimated how quickly things can turn around in the NFL. The Colts and the Redskins both got there with rookie quarterbacks who I highly rated but I just didn't think they would turn things around so quickly.
The Seahawks also got there with a rookie quarterback. I had read a lot about Russell Wilson in preseason about how great this kid was, mostly Bill Simmons, so I watched him in the first few games and to be honest I wasn't impressed. I remember in previous years about Eagles fans getting excited about Mike Kafka in preseason games and I had Wilson filed in the same bracket. It took him a few games to get settled but slowly his performances have improved and he has worked his way right up to the rookie of the year conversation.
The other team I overestimated was the Cincinnati Bengals. They made the playoffs last year but I expected the Steelers and Ravens to be a little bit ahead of them and I expected it would be another year on the learning curve for Andy Dalton and AJ Green. However, those two have stepped it up on offense along with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and with the defense also having a good year the Bengals managed to pick up the AFC's sixth seed.
The one team of the six who I would have given no chance to would have been the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings were poor last year and with Adrian Peterson coming off serious knee surgery I had them wrote off this year. I wasn't impressed with Christian Ponder in his rookie season either but he has shown a lot of improvement this year. His accuarcy has increased by 7.8% and he has thrown less interceptions in more games. He's far from perfect but if he can keep increasing those numbers, he may well turn out to be a decent quarterback for the Vikings. The biggest surprise though was Adrian Peterson. People just don't suffer career threatening injuries and then get to within 9 yards of breaking the single season rushing record. His performances have been exceptional and I am delighted to see him back in the playoffs where he belongs.
The final team I missed out is the worst and most embarrassing mistake I have made in my blogs this season. There's one thing any NFL fan, blogger, journalist, pundit should not do and I made a rookie mistake by doing it. I wrote off a Manning!!! Nobody should ever do that. I knew it then and I done it anyway. These guys seem to save their best for when people are writing them off. I am convinced that the reason the Giants didn't make the playoffs this year is because nobody was writing off Eli after his excellent performances last year when he won his second Superbowl. No doubt people will write him off this off season and he'll come back and lead the Giants on a deep playoff run.
As I said, I wrote off Peyton Manning. He had some pretty serious surgery last year and I just didn't think he was going to be the same guy but he has lost nothing and will be right up there when this years MVP is decided. Right now, I'd put him behind Adrian Peterson in that race but I've learned my lesson and I am certainly not going to rule him out.
The final prediction I made was my Superbowl pick. At the start of the season, I predicted the 49ers would beat the Patriots which I am happy to say is still a possibility. My thoughts have changed to be honest but at least I still have the chance of being correct.
In comparison to the five writers I compared myself against, I haven't done great. Of the other five, one predicted eight teams correctly, two predicted seven correctly and the other two predicted six correctly. I never beat any of them but at least I done as well as two of them.
In the Superbowl predictions, I am still in contention to be correct along with four of the five writers. The one who is already wrong predicted a repeat of last year's Superbowl with the Giants once again beating the Patriots.
My predictions aren't done for the season and I will continue to do my previews and predictions for every playoff game, including the Superbowl. I will also complete a playoff bracket, showing how I think this years championship will be won and lost.
Finally, for anyone interested, I have set up a NFL Playoff Challenge League for readers of the blog. I will be in it so why don't you and your friends enter too. if you are already playing it is easy to join. Just click this link and join the league. It is open to the public and no passwords are required. Good luck.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
For the regular readers of my blog, you will know I posted predictions in my preview's. Here is the complete list of results on a weekly basis.
Week 1 - 13-3
Week 2 - 11-5
Week 3 - 5-11
Week 4 - 11-4
Week 5 - 10-4
Week 6 - 8-6
Week 7 - 9-4
Week 8 - 7-7
Week 9 - 12-1 (Forgot to predict Thursday Night Football)
Week 10 - 11-3
Week 11 - 7-7
Week 12 - 10-6
Week 13 - 10-6
Week 14 - 11-5
Week 15 - 7-9
Week 16 - 13-3
Week 17 - 11-5
Total = 166-89 (forgot one game)
Percentage = 0.651
Overall, I think I could have done better but just under two thirds isn't a bad record and I now have a target to aim for next season.
As well as the weekly game by game predictions I also done a preview before the start of the season were I predicted each teams record for the year. The full article can be found here:
http://gjsportsblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/nfl-2012-season-preview.html
Below is a summary of how I got on.
Exactly correct - 2 (Buccaneers, Titans)
One win away - 4 (Bears, Cardinals, Jets, Raiders)
Two wins away - 8 (Packers, Giants, Cowboys, Falcons, Saints, Ravens, Browns, Jaguars)
Two and a half wins away - 2 (49ers, Rams)
Three Wins Away - 5 (Panthers, Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, Chargers)
Four Wins Away - 4 (Steelers, Bengals, Texans, Colts)
Five Wins Away - 2 (Broncos, Chiefs)
Six Wins Away - 3 (Eagles, Redskins, Seahawks)
Seven Wins Away - 1 (Vikings)
Eight Wins Away - 1 (Lions)
Again I'm not really sure how good or bad that is as I have nothing to compare it to but I will try to better it next season.
The one thing I do have something to compare is the teams I picked to qualify for the playoffs and my Superbowl prediction. I saved the predictions of five writers from a well known Football website and have compared my result with theirs.
I managed to pick out six (Packers, Falcons, 49ers, Patriots, Texans, Ravens) of the twelve playoff teams. Of the six I got wrong (Steelers, Chargers, Bills, Giants, Lions, Bears), only three of them got close (Steelers, Giants, Bears). The other three I was miles off with.
The six teams I did not predict to reach the playoffs were Seattle, Washington, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Denver. For four of those teams I overestimated how quickly things can turn around in the NFL. The Colts and the Redskins both got there with rookie quarterbacks who I highly rated but I just didn't think they would turn things around so quickly.
The Seahawks also got there with a rookie quarterback. I had read a lot about Russell Wilson in preseason about how great this kid was, mostly Bill Simmons, so I watched him in the first few games and to be honest I wasn't impressed. I remember in previous years about Eagles fans getting excited about Mike Kafka in preseason games and I had Wilson filed in the same bracket. It took him a few games to get settled but slowly his performances have improved and he has worked his way right up to the rookie of the year conversation.
The other team I overestimated was the Cincinnati Bengals. They made the playoffs last year but I expected the Steelers and Ravens to be a little bit ahead of them and I expected it would be another year on the learning curve for Andy Dalton and AJ Green. However, those two have stepped it up on offense along with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and with the defense also having a good year the Bengals managed to pick up the AFC's sixth seed.
The one team of the six who I would have given no chance to would have been the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings were poor last year and with Adrian Peterson coming off serious knee surgery I had them wrote off this year. I wasn't impressed with Christian Ponder in his rookie season either but he has shown a lot of improvement this year. His accuarcy has increased by 7.8% and he has thrown less interceptions in more games. He's far from perfect but if he can keep increasing those numbers, he may well turn out to be a decent quarterback for the Vikings. The biggest surprise though was Adrian Peterson. People just don't suffer career threatening injuries and then get to within 9 yards of breaking the single season rushing record. His performances have been exceptional and I am delighted to see him back in the playoffs where he belongs.
The final team I missed out is the worst and most embarrassing mistake I have made in my blogs this season. There's one thing any NFL fan, blogger, journalist, pundit should not do and I made a rookie mistake by doing it. I wrote off a Manning!!! Nobody should ever do that. I knew it then and I done it anyway. These guys seem to save their best for when people are writing them off. I am convinced that the reason the Giants didn't make the playoffs this year is because nobody was writing off Eli after his excellent performances last year when he won his second Superbowl. No doubt people will write him off this off season and he'll come back and lead the Giants on a deep playoff run.
As I said, I wrote off Peyton Manning. He had some pretty serious surgery last year and I just didn't think he was going to be the same guy but he has lost nothing and will be right up there when this years MVP is decided. Right now, I'd put him behind Adrian Peterson in that race but I've learned my lesson and I am certainly not going to rule him out.
The final prediction I made was my Superbowl pick. At the start of the season, I predicted the 49ers would beat the Patriots which I am happy to say is still a possibility. My thoughts have changed to be honest but at least I still have the chance of being correct.
In comparison to the five writers I compared myself against, I haven't done great. Of the other five, one predicted eight teams correctly, two predicted seven correctly and the other two predicted six correctly. I never beat any of them but at least I done as well as two of them.
In the Superbowl predictions, I am still in contention to be correct along with four of the five writers. The one who is already wrong predicted a repeat of last year's Superbowl with the Giants once again beating the Patriots.
My predictions aren't done for the season and I will continue to do my previews and predictions for every playoff game, including the Superbowl. I will also complete a playoff bracket, showing how I think this years championship will be won and lost.
Finally, for anyone interested, I have set up a NFL Playoff Challenge League for readers of the blog. I will be in it so why don't you and your friends enter too. if you are already playing it is easy to join. Just click this link and join the league. It is open to the public and no passwords are required. Good luck.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
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