Seattle Seahawks (12-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
Seattle and Atlanta start Sunday's divisional round match ups and it looks like being another fantastic day. Seattle earned their place here courtesy of a win over the Washington Redskins last week. The Seahawks got off to a slow start but they came back into it thanks to a great performance from their defense and their running game.
Unfortunately for the Seahawks that win came at a price. Defensive end, Chris Clemons picked up an injury that has ruled him out. Clemons absence will be a huge void to fill for the Seahawks. He leads the team in sacks (11.5) and this game was always going to come down to how much time Matt Ryan was going to get in the pocket. With Clemons now ruled out the momentum has took a huge swing in Atlanta's favour.
One advantage the Seahawks do have is Russell Wilson. He's a mobile quarterback, who although not as big as Cam Newton, is similar in that he will try to carry the ball down the field himself. The Falcons struggled with Newton during the regular season. Newton's best rushing games both came against the Falcons. If Wilson can get out of the pocket, he can take the ball down the field and as I see it, it's Seattle's best weapon.
Atlanta will look to put the game in the hands of their quarterback, Matt Ryan. Ryan has put up career numbers in the regular season, beating his previous best in yards, touchdowns and pass completion percentage. Ryan has a little extra pressure on him as he has never won a playoff game but as I've already said that statistic is a little bit flawed. All three teams he has played against in the playoffs have went to the Superbowl and two of the three have won the big one. He hasn't had much luck with his opponents and instead of concentrating on how many times Ryan has lost in the playoffs should we not be giving him a little bit of credit. Not many quarterbacks who have been in the NFL for five seasons are about to play in the playoffs for the fourth year. He's obviously doing something right and it's only a matter of time before he gets that first win.
The Falcons game plan will have changed with the injury to Chris Clemons. When they knew they were facing either the Seahawks or the Redskins they would have been looking for weaknesses to exploit. Prior to the injury the Falcons would have been looking to get the ball out quick but they won't face as strong a pass rush now which will open the field up for Julio Jones and Roddy White. If Ryan can get into his stride early he can find those two and they could lead him to that elusive first playoff win.
A look at the match ups would suggest that the Seahawks have a chance here. They were 3rd in running the ball and their defense was also strong, ranking 6th against the pass and 10th against the run. Their passing game was poor, ranking just 27th but they were 32nd for a long time and as the weeks have gone by they have trusted Wilson more and he hasn't let them down. The Falcons ranked 6th in passing and 29th in rushing. Their defense was 23rd against the pass and 21st against the run. The Falcons didn't do a great job of sacking the opponent's quarterback, picking up just 29 sacks (28th in the NFL) and I can't see that improving today. They will be more than happy to stop Wilson getting first downs rather than getting to him behind the line of scrimmage. The Falcons have done a decent job of protecting Ryan, allowing just 28 sacks.
Prediction - With Clemons, I would have gone for Seattle but momentum has swung far enough for me to change my mind and go with Matt Ryan getting his first playoff win.
Houston Texans (13-4) @ New England Patriots (12-4)
The divisional round ends in New England with a potentially great match up. This game should really be in Houston but the Texans collapsed in the regular season, losing three of their last four games. Prior to that, the Texans looked certain to be the AFC's top seed but the loss of form cost them and meant they had to host the Cincinnati Bengals in last week's wildcard round. The Texans got the win in that one but it was far from impressive and they will need to improve a lot if they are to beat the Patriots.
The Patriots are an interesting prospect this season. They have always had a good passing game but their running game and run defense are good this year too. In recent years the Patriots have been quite one dimensional, although their passing game was good enough to get them to a Superbowl last year but this year they can let their running game take some extra responsibility and their defense is also a bit better. They are still not great defending the pass but after last night's results they now only have to defend Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco for a trip to another Superbowl. Neither of those two are known for their passing and both have strong running-backs to help them out.
Another big strength for the Patriots is turnovers. They have turned the ball over just 16 times and their defense has forced 41 turnovers. They have also done a good job of protecting Tom Brady and have allowed him to be sacked just 27 times. The Texans are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to sacks though so it will be one of the key battles where the game will be won and lost. The Patriots come into the game in good form, having won nine of their last ten games. They picked up a big win over the Texans in week 14 and Houston will have their hands full if they want to spring a surprise.
The Texans have had a good year statistically. Their passing game was 11th, running game was 8th, pass defense was 16th and run defense was 7th. They also sacked the opponents quarterback 44 times which ranked 5th in the NFL and they only allowed their quarterback to be sacked 28 times which was 7th best in the league. They forced 29 turnovers and gave the ball away 17 times. Based on that the Texans are one of the best teams in the league but the problem I have is they have slowed down a lot in recent weeks and in my opinion they peaked too early.
There is a few question marks over how healthy the Patriots are heading into this one. A lot of their key players have been listed on injury reports this week and it remains to be seen what sort of condition they are in. I wouldn't be totally surprised if all the injured players took to the field tonight and that this was simply the latest in a long line of mind games from Bill Belichick.
Prediction - This should be a tight game but on current form I have to go with the home team, Patriots win.
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