Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Sunday's AFC wildcard game is similar to Saturday's as the wild card team come into it in better form. The Colts have won five of their last six games and the Ravens have only won one of their last five.
Indianapolis did finish with a better record than the Ravens this season but the Texans were even better and won the AFC South which meant the Colts had to rely on a wildcard. It has been a remarkable turnaround from the Colts after they finished last year as the worst team in the NFL. They got rid of a lot of their older players last year and brought in youngsters in an attempt to build for the future. I'm sure when they were building this team they would have set a target of a playoff place in two or three years time but they have managed to get their within a year and the future looks bright for the Colts and rookie quarterback, Andrew Luck.
The Colts were very good at home, winning seven games and they managed to finish .500 on the road to secure the number five seed in the AFC. The Colts had a decent record against playoff teams in the regular season, winning three of their five games. The one worry for the Colts is that all three wins came at home and their two defeats came on the road. The problem for the Colts is they hold the fifth seed so they will have to go on the road in the playoffs and will find it difficult.
The Colts were all about Andrew Luck. Everything good that they done, involved the rookie. Their passing game was ranked 7th in the NFL. They were in the bottom half in all the other statistics. Their running game was 22nd, their pass defense was 21st and their run defense was 29th. Andrew Luck didn't even get much help from his offensive line as they allowed 41 sacks which was the 10th worst record in the league. This resulted in turnovers and the Colts gave the ball away 27 times. The defense wasn't great either and they only managed to force 15 turnovers all year and sack the opponents quarterback 32 times.
The Ravens are in poor form and a few weeks ago they were in the race to earn a bye in the wildcard round but four defeats in five games has saw them drop to the AFC's fourth seed. The Ravens finished the season with a 10-6 record, which saw them win six at home and four on the road. Against playoff teams they have gone 2-3. Both of their wins came at home and they went 0-2 on the road.
This Ravens team hasn't been great all season and in my opinion they are underusing Ray Rice. Rice is an elite running-back but I don't think he got a big enough workload in the regular season. Having said that, the Ravens have made it to the playoffs without pushing him too hard and I expect him to be busy on Sunday. Rice is built to play playoff football and if the Ravens are to do well, they will have to give him as much of the ball as they can.
The Ravens biggest strength this year was taking care of the football. They turned the ball over on 16 occasions which is tied for the second best record in the league. The Ravens defense isn't as strong as it has been in recent seasons. They rank 17th against the pass and 20th against the run. They have produced 37 sacks this year which is 15th in the league. In recent years the Ravens have always had a tough defense but this particular unit isn't quite at the high level we are used to seeing from Ravens defenses.
Prediction - This will be a tight game between two sides who regardless of Sunday's results, I can't see progressing beyond the divisional round. I think these are the weakest sides in the AFC playoffs and would take any of the other four teams to beat them. The Colts are quite one dimensional and will throw the ball. They aren't great at protecting their quarterback but then again the Ravens haven't been known for their pass rush this year. My worry for the Colts is turnovers. Andrew Luck has thrown 18 interceptions this year and it is a massive problem for the Colts. I have gone on about teams taking care of the football all year and while I was looking at the statistics during the week I found a very interesting one. In both the AFC and the NFC, the five teams who have turned the ball over the least have reached the playoffs. That's five out of the six teams in each Conference which only underlines how important it is to take care of the football in the NFL. For those interested, the two teams who made the playoffs despite being outside the top five in this category were the Colts and the Vikings. If I was coaching the Ravens my game plan would be simple. Give the ball to Ray Rice and let him run all over the 29th run defense in the league. To this point John Harbaugh hasn't given Rice a huge workload but I think he will give him the ball in this game and it will lead to a Baltimore win.
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Washington Redskins (10-6)
The wildcard round finishes with a battle between two of the NFL's most exciting rookie quarterbacks. Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III have set the NFL alight this year with some spectacular plays and it seems fitting that they should face off for a place in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Seattle have reached this point with an 11-5 record and they have looked excellent in recent weeks, winning seven of their last eight games. Seattle were perfect at home, winning all eight games. They weren't as impressive on the road though and went 3-5. The Seahawks played against five playoff teams in the regular season and won four of the games, with their only loss coming in a tight game in San Francisco. Seattle's five defeats were all tight and their biggest loss was by seven points in that defeat to the 49ers.
Seattle look like a good old fashioned playoff team. They have the strong defense and the strong running game that used to be the criteria to win a Superbowl so it will be interesting to see how they get on in what has become a passing league. The Seahawks finished 3rd in rushing and their defense were 6th against the pass and 10th against the run. The passing game wasn't great and ranked 27th in the league but that was more to do with the play calling. Russell Wilson completed 64.1% of his passes and the Seahawks simply preferred to run the ball and the low rank is not a reflection on Wilson's play. Wilson ended the regular season with 26 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions which is a respectable ratio. The Seahawks also done well in relation to turnovers. The offense gave the ball away 18 times and the defense forced 31 turnovers, both of which were the 4th best records in the NFC.
The Redskins gave up a lot to trade up in the 2012 draft to take Robert Griffin III but he has repaid them with a playoff place and an NFC East title in his rookie season. RG3 is a special player and will surely go on to win multiple titles. He had a bit of a mixed start and although he was playing well, the Redskins weren't getting the results. They were 3-6 and looked to be heading towards another bad season but things clicked into place for them and they won their last seven games to finish 10-6 and take the divisional title. The Redskins faced four playoff teams this year, all at home. They split the four games, beating Minnesota and Baltimore but losing to Cincinnati and Atlanta.
The Redskins were all about the running game this year and rookie duo, RG3 and Alfred Morris led the team to an average of 169 yards per game on the ground. They also done better than any other team in the league in what I would describe as the most important statistic in football, turnovers. The Redskins turned the ball over just 14 times and that is a remarkable statistic for a team with a rookie quarterback. The Redskins defense were good at defending the run and ranked 5th in the league. They weren't so good at defending the pass though and ranked 30th. This was partially because they were unable to get a lot of pressure on the opposing quarterback. They picked up 32 sacks which was 23rd in the league. Their strength on defense was picking off the opposing quarterbacks and they had 21 interceptions.
Prediction - This game looks like being a cracker. Both offenses are a pleasure to watch and if nothing else at least we are guaranteed at least one more week of either RG3 or Wilson. Both sides will favour the run and both also have strong run defenses. Seattle seem to be trusting Wilson more and more as the season goes on and with receivers like Sidney Rice and Golden Tate on the field they can take advantage of a poor Washington pass defense. On paper, the Seahawks are the better team and I think they will get the win to keep their Superbowl dreams alive.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
AFC
Wildcard RoundHouston Texans over the Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens over the Indianapolis Colts
Divisional Round
Denver Broncos over the Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots over the Houston Texans
AFC Championship
Denver Broncos over the New England Patriots
NFC
Wildcard RoundGreen Bay Packers over the Minnesota Vikings
Seattle Seahawks over the Washington Redskins
Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks over the Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers over the San Francisco 49ers
NFC Championship
Green Bay Packers over the Seattle Seahawks
SUPERBOWL
Denver Broncos over the Green Bay Packers
NFL PLAYOFF CHALLENGE
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