There we have it. Superbowl XLVII is in the books and it was the Baltimore Ravens who picked up the Lombardi Trophy after another fantastic game. The game looked over when Jacoby Jones scored a touchdown after a 108 yard kick off return to open the second half. It looked like something dramatic and crazy would have to happen to allow the 49ers to get back into the game. Something dramatic and crazy like a power cut? Obviously we can't say for definite that it changed the game but it certainly looked like the 49ers dealt with it better and came out flying after the interruption.
Up until then it had been all Baltimore and they led 28-6 when one half of the stadium was plunged into darkness. The Ravens were well on top on both sides of the ball and had scored four touchdowns while restricting the 49ers to just two field goals. After the break the 49ers came back with a bang and scored seventeen unanswered points to reduce the gap to five points at the end of the third quarter. The Ravens responded with a field goal but the 49ers scored a touchdown to reduce the deficit to two points. They decided to go for the two point conversion to level the game but the Ravens ran a blitz and the attempt failed. In my opinion the Ravens had a bit of luck as it looked like there was an offside on the play. As it was the officials missed it and the Ravens went on a clock killing, 10 play drive that took 5:38 off the clock. The drive ended with a Ravens field goal that left the score at 34-29 with 4:19 remaining. The 49ers got down to work and made good progress down the field. After five plays the 49ers had first and goal on the Baltimore seven yard line and looked sure to score. They tried a run play on first down that got the ball to the five and took the game to the two minute warning. Two incompletions later and the ball was still on the five as the 49ers lined up for fourth down. Kaepernick got a pass off and it seemed clear to everyone watching that Michael Crabtree was held but bizarrely the officials let the play go.
The Ravens now had the ball with 1:46 left on the clock. San Francisco had one timeout left after wasting their second one on the previous drive when it looked as though they were about to be hit with a delay of game penalty. Due to the lack of timeouts, the Ravens were able to run the ball on the first three downs which left just twelve seconds on the clock. Instead of punting from the back of the endzone they very cleverly took an intentional safety which allowed them to run eight seconds off the clock and then punt from their own twenty which made things a lot more difficult for the 49ers. As it was Sam Koch hit a booming kick right down the field which Ted Ginn Jr managed to get back to midfield but after breaking a few tackles he was eventually brought down which set off the purple ticker tape much to the delight of everyone involved with the Baltimore Ravens.
It's hard to take the victory away from the Ravens but I would point to two dubious calls late in the game which may have changed the outcome. However, it wasn't to be and in a few years time it will only be the San Francisco 49ers fans who remember those bad calls and everyone else will remember that Joe Flacco, Ray Lewis, John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens won Superbowl XLVII.
Once again, the most important statistic in football reared it's head and the team who lost the turnovers battle, lost the game. The Baltimore Ravens turned the ball over once and the 49ers turned it over twice. The 49ers went close to beating that stat but not close enough and in each of this years eleven playoff games, the winner of the turnover battle was the winner of the game. If that doesn't underline how important it is to take care of the football, then nothing will.
The San Francisco 49ers put together a good run this year and got an extra step closer to success but they will no doubt be developing a few scars after last years defeat in the NFC title game and this years Superbowl loss. I imagine next seasons mantra will be, "one more win" or something to that effect. The 49ers deserve a lot of credit for their performances in the last two years but as an Eagles fan I know as well as anyone that when you make it to these games, you have to take advantage of it as it can all go very wrong, very quickly.
In the game itself, Colin Kaepernick finished with 302 yards, a touchdown and an interception. On the ground he ran for 62 yards and a touchdown. Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis were his leading receivers. Crabtree caught 5 passes for 109 yards and a touchdown. Davis caught 6 passes for 104 yards. Frank Gore also had a good game on the ground, rushing for 110 yards and a touchdown.
The Ravens struggled on the ground and averaged just 2.7 yards per carry. Ray Rice picked up 59 yards from 20 carries and Bernard Pierce ran for 33 yards from 12 carries. Anquan Boldin was their leading receiver, catching 6 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown. Jacoby Jones also had a great day, catching a 56 yard touchdown pass and he also returned a kickoff for a 108 yard touchdown. All those players played well but the MVP for this game and right through the playoffs was Joe Flacco. Flacco completed two thirds of his passes for 287 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has been outstanding throughout and nobody deserves more credit for this Superbowl win than Joe Flacco. He has been a bit of a joke figure throughout his career but eleven touchdowns and no interceptions on the way to a Superbowl victory is the best way anyone can stick two fingers up to their critics. Flacco will now get a huge contract with the Ravens and if he can carry his current form into next season then there's no doubt that Flacco will be in that elite bracket with other Superbowl champions like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.
No Superbowl review would be complete without mentioning the two stories that dominated the build up to the big game, Ray Lewis' retirement and the battle of the Harbaugh brothers. Ray Lewis got the end to his hall of fame career that he could only have dreamt of. No professional sports man fits the marmite tag more than Lewis. Some hate him, some love him but nobody can deny that on the field he has been a pleasure to watch over the years and will go down as one of the best linebackers in the games illustrious history.
The other story was the amazing circumstances that led to two brothers standing on opposing sidelines. Jim and John Harbaugh have proven themselves to be excellent coaches in the NFL and with them both being in the early stages of their careers, this may not be the last time that they go head to head in the Superbowl. It is an amazing story though and when you consider the amount of coaches at every NFL franchise and throughout college football it is remarkable that they have been able to work their way up the coaching ranks to be the head coaches in a Superbowl. Their family will be extremely proud of their achievements but at the same time it will also have been an extremely difficult time for them. In the end John is the brother who will be getting fitted for a Superbowl ring and as happy an occasion as that is, there will always be the sadness that it came at Jim's expense. The brothers seem solid though and I've no doubt that nothing would please John more than to see his younger brother follow in his footsteps and get his ring in the next few years.
49ers Offensive Star : Frank Gore - Gore just edges Kaepernick for me. His 5.8 yards per carry and a touchdown was a good return and Kaepernick gets a negative mark for what was a very poor and costly interception.
49ers Defensive Star : NaVorro Bowman - 9 tackles including 2 for a loss and 2 hits on Joe Flacco were enough to earn Bowman this prize but unfortunately for him, it wasn't enough to win the game for the 49ers.
Ravens Offensive Star : Joe Flacco - Who else but the Superbowl's MVP? Flacco has been excellent throughout and although he was run close by Jacoby Jones, he deserves it for his play right through the playoffs.
Ravens Defensive Star : Corey Graham - This guy has shown himself to be a top class cornerback in this playoff run and he was on top of his game last night. He made 6 tackles but more importantly he made 2 crucial pass deflections that had a big impact on the result.
NFL PLAYOFF CHALLENGE AND PICKS
Big congratulations to Edward McMullan whose Mallbrohimovic team won the blog's league on NFL.com. Edward is a New York Giants fan but we won't hold that against him. My own challenge went much the same way as my predictions. After a 4-0 start and getting all eight of my team through the wildcard round, things took a bad turn for me. After that I went 2-5 to finish 6-5 for the playoffs and I never managed to pick one player who won a divisional round match or a conference championship match. It wasn't to be for me and it looks like I will have to abandon my gung ho style and take a safer approach in next years competition.
THANK YOU
Finally, I'd like to give a big thanks to everyone who has read the blog over the course of the season. It has had thousands of hits and it makes all the time I have put into it worthwhile. Next up for me is the birth of my third child. My wife is due in the next few days and fingers crossed all goes well. I will most likely take a short break when that happens but rest assured I will be back posting within a few weeks although I'm not sure what subject it will be on. I've no doubt, I'll have plenty to say on Free Agency, the NFL Draft and I will most definitely be back posting on the 2013 NFL season in September where I WILL finish with a better record than I did this year. Once again thanks and in the mean time feel free to follow me on Twitter. https://twitter.com/gjsportsblog
Showing posts with label NFC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFC. Show all posts
Monday, 4 February 2013
Sunday, 3 February 2013
Superbowl XLVII - Baltimore Ravens v San Francisco 49ers
So after almost five months and over eighty NFL related posts on my blog, we are finally here and Superbowl XLVII is just hours away. It's been a long season but it has been another good one. We've had some great moments along the way and what better way to end it than with a bit of history in the Superbowl. It is amazing to think that the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers are coached by two brothers and one can only imagine the pride that their parents must be feeling right now.
The game itself is very intriguing. Both sides lost Conference Championship games last year but have bounced back from the disappointment to go one step further and reach the Superbowl. Both sides have done things a little different this year and whilst I haven't always agreed with it, I've been proved wrong. Initially I had them both as playoff teams and in my preseason predictions, I even picked the 49ers to win the Superbowl. As much as I'd love to sit here and bask in the glow of that prediction, I have to be honest and say once Alex Smith was replaced by Colin Kaepernick that went out the window. I still have issues with Kaepernick and it was a risky strategy from Jim Harbaugh to make such a big personnel change midway through the season. However, as much as I can look for ways to argue, the bottom line is Kapaernick, Jim Harbaugh and the San Francisco 49ers have made it work and they have earned the right to represent the NFC in Superbowl XLVII.
In the regular season, these teams won their divisions but neither held their conferences top seed. The Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons held that honour and it is no coincidence that the 49ers and Ravens have had to beat those two along the way to getting this far. The 49ers and Ravens both had decent regular seasons but more importantly, they improved in the playoffs. All year I have been looking at certain statistics to help me gage how good certain teams are. The Ravens have improved in 63% of the statistics I look at and the 49ers have improved in 75%. It just goes to show how important it is to peak at the right time in the NFL.
It will be no secret to anyone that the statistic I believe to be the most important is turnovers. I have looked at all ten playoff games so far and in every single game the team who has won the turnover battle has won the match. There was a few games were the teams had the same amount of turnovers but in the games were their was an outright winner, that team won the match. It will also not come as a surprise to learn that when I looked at the turnover differential table, the top two teams are the Baltimore Ravens (+5) and the San Francisco 49ers (+2).
One of the things I am looking forward to, is seeing how the Baltimore Ravens cope with the 49ers offense. In their three games so far, the Ravens have faced three passing teams. They have managed to get the better of Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady but they face a totally different task when they take on Colin Kaepernick. The Ravens haven't done well against mobile quarterbacks and lost to Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III. Another of their defeats came against the Houston Texans who don't have a mobile quarterback but I would consider them to be a run first offense. The 49ers will combine a mobile quarterback with a run first offense and the Ravens will have to find a way to deal with that. They have improved on a lot of things throughout this playoff run so it's certainly possible that they will have a plan to deal with the 49ers.
In their two playoff games so far, the 49ers offense has put up some great numbers. In the regular season they averaged 362 yards of offense per game. In the playoffs they have improved their passing and their running. They are averaging 476 yards per game and most of that improvement has come on the ground. They are averaging almost as many yards on the ground as they are in the air with 236 rushing yards and 240 passing yards.
The one big issue is they have struggled against the pass so far. In the regular season they gave up just over 200 yards per game in the air. In their two playoff wins they have gave up a total of 644 yards. That's a huge increase but it can be offset a little by the fact that they played two pass heavy teams and a lot of their regular season schedule was against teams who prefer to run the ball. The 49ers will face a difficult task on defense as the Ravens have shown that they can win the game on the ground or in the air. Joe Flacco has done a great job in the playoffs but it things aren't working out for him he can always turn to Ray Rice who is among the best rushers in the NFL.
I can't write my preview without mentioning that this is the final game in the career of an NFL legend, Ray Lewis. Nobody can deny his achievements on the field and he has been a fantastic player for the Ravens over the years. He has had his fair share of controversies, including one this week when it has been claimed that he has been using illegal substances but that's a story for someone else and unless it's proven that he broke the rules, it's not a subject I will be talking about. Lewis has always been a controversial character but he is one of few players who will be able to say that he left everything on the field each and every time he stepped onto it.
Prediction - My final prediction of the season. Who will be crowned as King of the Harbaugh's? I'd like to say John as I like him but this isn't a personality contest and everything I know about football and everything I have learned this year about football tells me that the San Francisco 49ers will be crowned Superbowl XLVII champions.
Finally, I'd just like to thank everyone for all their support this season. A blog is pointless without readers and I have enjoyed reading all the comments, debates and encouragement received. I will do a review of the game but after that I'm not sure what I will be doing with regards the blog. You can follow me on Twitter if you want to keep up to date with any future plans. Thanks everyone and hopefully we will enjoy a great game. Good luck folks. Twitter - https://twitter.com/gjsportsblog
The game itself is very intriguing. Both sides lost Conference Championship games last year but have bounced back from the disappointment to go one step further and reach the Superbowl. Both sides have done things a little different this year and whilst I haven't always agreed with it, I've been proved wrong. Initially I had them both as playoff teams and in my preseason predictions, I even picked the 49ers to win the Superbowl. As much as I'd love to sit here and bask in the glow of that prediction, I have to be honest and say once Alex Smith was replaced by Colin Kaepernick that went out the window. I still have issues with Kaepernick and it was a risky strategy from Jim Harbaugh to make such a big personnel change midway through the season. However, as much as I can look for ways to argue, the bottom line is Kapaernick, Jim Harbaugh and the San Francisco 49ers have made it work and they have earned the right to represent the NFC in Superbowl XLVII.
In the regular season, these teams won their divisions but neither held their conferences top seed. The Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons held that honour and it is no coincidence that the 49ers and Ravens have had to beat those two along the way to getting this far. The 49ers and Ravens both had decent regular seasons but more importantly, they improved in the playoffs. All year I have been looking at certain statistics to help me gage how good certain teams are. The Ravens have improved in 63% of the statistics I look at and the 49ers have improved in 75%. It just goes to show how important it is to peak at the right time in the NFL.
It will be no secret to anyone that the statistic I believe to be the most important is turnovers. I have looked at all ten playoff games so far and in every single game the team who has won the turnover battle has won the match. There was a few games were the teams had the same amount of turnovers but in the games were their was an outright winner, that team won the match. It will also not come as a surprise to learn that when I looked at the turnover differential table, the top two teams are the Baltimore Ravens (+5) and the San Francisco 49ers (+2).
One of the things I am looking forward to, is seeing how the Baltimore Ravens cope with the 49ers offense. In their three games so far, the Ravens have faced three passing teams. They have managed to get the better of Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady but they face a totally different task when they take on Colin Kaepernick. The Ravens haven't done well against mobile quarterbacks and lost to Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III. Another of their defeats came against the Houston Texans who don't have a mobile quarterback but I would consider them to be a run first offense. The 49ers will combine a mobile quarterback with a run first offense and the Ravens will have to find a way to deal with that. They have improved on a lot of things throughout this playoff run so it's certainly possible that they will have a plan to deal with the 49ers.
In their two playoff games so far, the 49ers offense has put up some great numbers. In the regular season they averaged 362 yards of offense per game. In the playoffs they have improved their passing and their running. They are averaging 476 yards per game and most of that improvement has come on the ground. They are averaging almost as many yards on the ground as they are in the air with 236 rushing yards and 240 passing yards.
The one big issue is they have struggled against the pass so far. In the regular season they gave up just over 200 yards per game in the air. In their two playoff wins they have gave up a total of 644 yards. That's a huge increase but it can be offset a little by the fact that they played two pass heavy teams and a lot of their regular season schedule was against teams who prefer to run the ball. The 49ers will face a difficult task on defense as the Ravens have shown that they can win the game on the ground or in the air. Joe Flacco has done a great job in the playoffs but it things aren't working out for him he can always turn to Ray Rice who is among the best rushers in the NFL.
I can't write my preview without mentioning that this is the final game in the career of an NFL legend, Ray Lewis. Nobody can deny his achievements on the field and he has been a fantastic player for the Ravens over the years. He has had his fair share of controversies, including one this week when it has been claimed that he has been using illegal substances but that's a story for someone else and unless it's proven that he broke the rules, it's not a subject I will be talking about. Lewis has always been a controversial character but he is one of few players who will be able to say that he left everything on the field each and every time he stepped onto it.
Prediction - My final prediction of the season. Who will be crowned as King of the Harbaugh's? I'd like to say John as I like him but this isn't a personality contest and everything I know about football and everything I have learned this year about football tells me that the San Francisco 49ers will be crowned Superbowl XLVII champions.
Finally, I'd just like to thank everyone for all their support this season. A blog is pointless without readers and I have enjoyed reading all the comments, debates and encouragement received. I will do a review of the game but after that I'm not sure what I will be doing with regards the blog. You can follow me on Twitter if you want to keep up to date with any future plans. Thanks everyone and hopefully we will enjoy a great game. Good luck folks. Twitter - https://twitter.com/gjsportsblog
Sunday, 27 January 2013
Pro Bowl - What's The Point?
After the excitement of last weekends Conference Championship Games, things slow down this week as the Pro Bowl takes place in Hawaii. I love American Football and believe that the NFL and the sport in general get a hell of a lot of things right but the Pro Bowl is the one exception.
I love the draft system. Giving the weaker teams first pick is excellent as it makes a level playing field. The salary cap is also excellent for the same reason. I love that the players are drafted from colleges as it means the kids who dream of making the NFL but don't make it at least have an education to fall back on. I would love to see a way that soccer in Europe could adopt this principle as there are so many kids who don't make it but have finished their education at 16 years old to go into football academies on a full time basis and therefore have little or no qualifications. The one thing I don't love, is the Pro Bowl.
In recent seasons the Pro Bowl has been moved to the week before the Superbowl. That for me was the final straw. Previously you had a game that the players and fans didn't really care between the league's top stars. Now you have a game that the players and fans don't really care about and you don't even have the very best players playing as they are preparing for the Superbowl. Honestly, what's the point? I understand that the players who are voted onto the Pro Bowl can use the fact that they are Pro Bowlers in leverage for better contracts but the players themselves would probably prefer it if it was just an award that was handed out at the end of the year rather than having to play a meaningless game when their season's over. For the players who have been involved in the playoffs it's not so bad but if your team hasn't made the postseason there will be players who won't have played in four weeks who will then be asked to play in the Pro Bowl. It's doing nothing other than eating into time that the players could be spending with their families or on holidays.
In other sports the equivalents are often played during the regular season. I've had a think about this and it wouldn't work in the NFL. There's just not enough games. If the Pro Bowl was mid season the voting would have to start in week 2 or 3 to get all the votes in, counted and announced prior to the game being played. That would be far too early and players who aren't necessarily fan favourites but have a good season, wouldn't get the recognition they deserve.
In my opinion, players deserve recognition for being among the best in their position in the league but think the players would prefer it to be some sort of compromise between the All-Pro teams and the Pro Bowl teams. I would start voting the day after the Superbowl and have three separate votes. One for journalists, one for players and one for fans. Each vote would be calculated as a percentage and added together. The top players in each position would be named as All-Stars, All-Pros or whatever you want to call them. You could go down the basketball route and have a first team, second team, third team or however many you want. This way the top players are still getting recognised but we don't have to sit through a meaningless game were players play at a maximum of 50%.
The players aren't interested, I don't know anyone who is really excited by the prospect of watching it and in Hawaii the game was close to being blacked out due to poor ticket sales. If the people of Hawaii were interested in the one chance they get a year to see NFL players in action, they would have sold out weeks ago. It seems to me that the only person who cares is Roger Goodell as it's simply another chance for him to get some more dollars into the bank before the season ends. For a man that talks so much about player safety, I can't understand why he is making the players play in a meaningless end of season game were the only thing the players care about is that they don't get injured. Would Roger Goodell stand in a field and let 300lb men hit him for no reason? No, I don't think he would either.
Follow me on Twitter - https://twitter.com/gjsportsblog
I love the draft system. Giving the weaker teams first pick is excellent as it makes a level playing field. The salary cap is also excellent for the same reason. I love that the players are drafted from colleges as it means the kids who dream of making the NFL but don't make it at least have an education to fall back on. I would love to see a way that soccer in Europe could adopt this principle as there are so many kids who don't make it but have finished their education at 16 years old to go into football academies on a full time basis and therefore have little or no qualifications. The one thing I don't love, is the Pro Bowl.
In recent seasons the Pro Bowl has been moved to the week before the Superbowl. That for me was the final straw. Previously you had a game that the players and fans didn't really care between the league's top stars. Now you have a game that the players and fans don't really care about and you don't even have the very best players playing as they are preparing for the Superbowl. Honestly, what's the point? I understand that the players who are voted onto the Pro Bowl can use the fact that they are Pro Bowlers in leverage for better contracts but the players themselves would probably prefer it if it was just an award that was handed out at the end of the year rather than having to play a meaningless game when their season's over. For the players who have been involved in the playoffs it's not so bad but if your team hasn't made the postseason there will be players who won't have played in four weeks who will then be asked to play in the Pro Bowl. It's doing nothing other than eating into time that the players could be spending with their families or on holidays.
In other sports the equivalents are often played during the regular season. I've had a think about this and it wouldn't work in the NFL. There's just not enough games. If the Pro Bowl was mid season the voting would have to start in week 2 or 3 to get all the votes in, counted and announced prior to the game being played. That would be far too early and players who aren't necessarily fan favourites but have a good season, wouldn't get the recognition they deserve.
In my opinion, players deserve recognition for being among the best in their position in the league but think the players would prefer it to be some sort of compromise between the All-Pro teams and the Pro Bowl teams. I would start voting the day after the Superbowl and have three separate votes. One for journalists, one for players and one for fans. Each vote would be calculated as a percentage and added together. The top players in each position would be named as All-Stars, All-Pros or whatever you want to call them. You could go down the basketball route and have a first team, second team, third team or however many you want. This way the top players are still getting recognised but we don't have to sit through a meaningless game were players play at a maximum of 50%.
The players aren't interested, I don't know anyone who is really excited by the prospect of watching it and in Hawaii the game was close to being blacked out due to poor ticket sales. If the people of Hawaii were interested in the one chance they get a year to see NFL players in action, they would have sold out weeks ago. It seems to me that the only person who cares is Roger Goodell as it's simply another chance for him to get some more dollars into the bank before the season ends. For a man that talks so much about player safety, I can't understand why he is making the players play in a meaningless end of season game were the only thing the players care about is that they don't get injured. Would Roger Goodell stand in a field and let 300lb men hit him for no reason? No, I don't think he would either.
Follow me on Twitter - https://twitter.com/gjsportsblog
Monday, 21 January 2013
NFL - Championship Weekend Review
NFC - San Francisco 49ers 28-24 Atlanta Falcons
The San Francisco 49ers came from 17-0 down to beat the Atlanta Falcons and secure their first Superbowl appearance since 1994.
The 49ers started off very slowly and were 17-0 down early in the second quarter. They rallied after that though and got back to 17-14 but the Falcons got another touchdown before half-time to lead 24-14 at the break. The 49ers defense came up big in the second half though. The Falcons were unable to add to the 24 points they had scored in the first half and the offense got the two touchdowns that were required to complete the comeback.
The defeat will have left some mental scars on the Falcons as they threw away a big league for the second week in a row. Last week they were able to respond with a field goal to win the game but this week a field goal was no use and they needed to get the ball in the end zone but they were unable to get beyond the San Francisco 10 yard line. They got one final chance when the 49ers went three and out and were forced to punt. The Falcons had six seconds on the clock and the ball on their own 41. The play had to be a Hail Mary or some sort of a lateral play but instead the Falcons played a mid range pass to Julio Jones at the 49ers 35 and he was tackled instantly which ended the game. The Falcons had no timeouts left and the pass was played into the middle of the field so I have no idea what they were thinking of. That play summed up the Falcons entire second half and they never really looked likely to score until the drive just after the 49ers scored. Much of the criticism should be handed to the coaches. They were having some success early on by being aggressive on offense. Once they got into the lead they changed styles and tried to protect their lead. They had all the momentum and let it slip but they are not the first team to make that mistake and certainly won't be the last.
Matt Ryan had a mixed game. He threw for 396 yards and 3 touchdowns but he was also responsible for two bad turnovers. He was intercepted after throwing the ball straight to Chris Culliver and he also lost a fumble when he took his eyes off the ball on a shotgun snap. Turnovers aside, he was excellent but everyone knows that turnovers will cost you games and it was the case yesterday. The Falcons weren't great on the ground, picking up 81 yards from 23 running plays. The Falcons were once again led in the passing game by their three big stars, Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. Jones caught 11 passes for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns. White caught 7 passes for 100 yards and Gonzalez caught 8 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown.
The 49ers deserve a lot of credit for their performance. After falling behind so early many teams would have crumbled but the 49ers refused to panic. They stuck to their game plan and were rewarded with two touchdowns to get back to within three but conceded another touchdown just before the half to leave the deficit at ten points. They came out in the second half and continued to plug away and got the gap back to three points with a touchdown early in the third quarter. The teams then had a bit of a crazy spell were both had turnovers and the 49ers missed a field goal before San Francisco eventually took the lead thanks to a Vernon Davis touchdown with just over eight minutes remaining. The 49ers allowed the Falcons to get up the field but a field goal was no use at this stage and they managed to keep them out of the end zone to secure the win.
One man who deserves a lot of credit is quarterback, Colin Kaepernick. He had what I would say was the best game of his career. Everyone knows what he can do on the ground but I'm old fashioned and like a quarterback who can pass the ball. I've spent many an evening over the last month or two writing about how bad a passer he is so it's only right that I acknowledge how good he was in this game. He completed 16 of his 21 passes for 231 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers are very good but they don't do justice to how well he played. He left the running side of the game to the running-backs and stood in the pocket and made some fantastic passes. I have to be honest and say that I didn't think he had that kind of performance in him but he stepped up and played like a pure passer to lead his team to a Superbowl and I can't give him enough credit for that. He's still a young guy and if he can continue to improve as a passer and play with more consistency in that area, he could have a big career in the NFL. Other stars for the 49ers were Frank Gore who ran for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns from 21 carries and Vernon Davis who caught 5 passes for 106 yards and a touchdown.
For the Falcons, there will be a lot of soul searching in the off season. It looks as though Tony Gonzalez will retire which will be a big loss for them. They will also need to address what happened in these playoffs and why they gave away two big leads in their two games. In my opinion, it was bad coaching. They got themselves into good positions with aggressive play calling and then tried to hang onto the lead by relying on their defense and running game to kill time. Neither unit were good enough and the Falcons are at their best when they are going for the jugular and trying to beat teams instead of maintaining leads.
For the 49ers, it's two weeks of studying film, training, hard work and coming up with a plan to pick up a win in New Orleans in the Har-Bowl.
49ers Offensive Star : Colin Kaepernick - Vernon Davis and Frank Gore deserve this just as much but Kaepernick showed us a side to his game that we hadn't really saw before.
49ers Defensive Star : Patrick Willis - Twelve tackles including one for a loss was a good return from the linebacker.
Falcons Offensive Star : Julio Jones - Jones deserved to be in a Superbowl after picking up 182 yards and 2 touchdowns from his 11 catches.
Falcons Defensive Star : Thomas DeCoud - The Falcons safety made 8 tackles and also deflected a pass.
Baltimore Ravens 28-13 New England Patriots
The Baltimore Ravens secured an unlikely passage to the Superbowl after a big win over the New England Patriots last night. Nobody has earned a place in the Superbowl more than this Baltimore Ravens team. They came into the playoffs as the fourth seed and beat the Indianapolis Colts who had a better regular season record than them, the Denver Broncos who looked like the best team in the AFC by quite some distance and finally, the New England Patriots who have more experience of Championship games than any other team in recent years. I did expect them to prevail against the Colts but I gave them next to no chance against the Broncos and the Patriots and on both occasions they have gone into hostile atmosphere's and done the business.
Statistically the game was fairly tight but there were a few key differences between the sides and it turned out to be the difference between winning and losing. I have been banging on all year about turnovers and once again this game was evidence of the fact that it's very hard to win in this league if you turn the ball over. The Patriots turned it over three times and the Ravens managed to avoid any turnovers. The first turnover was costly as the Patriots were eight behind and had drove to midfield and then lost the ball to a fumble. Not content at stopping the Patriots from scoring, the Ravens turned the turnover into points and got a touchdown to extend their lead to fifteen points. The last two were interceptions when the Patriots were in desperation mode. The first was in Ravens territory and the Patriots looked like reducing the gap to eight points with around half the fourth quarter to play. Instead Tom Brady was picked off and the Ravens managed to drive down the field and take 4:44 off the clock. That left the Patriots fifteen behind and just over two minutes left. The Pats were moving the ball down the field but got intercepted again and that left the Ravens in the position were they could take two kneels to finish off the game. The other difference was their success in the red zone. The Ravens went four from four in the red zone and the Patriots only went one from four. They had to kick two field goals and also turned another one over on downs.
Baltimore were once again led by quarterback, Joe Flacco. Flacco has been outstanding in the playoffs and had another fantastic game, throwing for 240 yards and 3 touchdowns. His main targets were Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta. Smith caught 4 passes for 69 yards, Boldin caught 5 for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns and Dennis Pitta caught 5 passes for 55 yards and a touchdown. The ground game wasn't hugely effective and the Patriots done a good job of stopping Ray Rice. He did get a touchdown but they restricted him to just 48 yards from 19 carries. Bernard Pierce was a bit more dangerous and ran for 52 yards from 9 carries.
Tom Brady didn't have a great game for the Patriots, completing 29 of 54 passes for 320 yards, a touchdown and 2 interceptions. When Brady gets to throw 54 passes you expect a lot more than thirteen points to show for it. His leading receivers were Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Brandon Lloyd. Welker led the way with 8 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. Hernandez caught 9 passes for 83 yards and Lloyd caught 7 passes for 70 yards. Stevan Ridley was the leading rusher and picked up 70 yards from his 18 carries. He was also the man responsible for the fumble that led to the Ravens fourth touchdown so it wasn't a great day for the running-back.
To be honest, I'm not sure were the Patriots go from here. Eight seasons have passed since they last won the Superbowl and for guys like Tom Brady and Bill Belichick who set their standards so high, it's not good enough. They have been in the playoffs in seven of those eight seasons and their regular season record has never been worse than 10-6 but for some reason they keep falling short in the big games. Belichick will undoubtedly look to see what he can do to fix things as they are clearly not far from the right formula but these guys are born winners and anything other than a ring at the end of the season is good enough for the Patriots.
The Baltimore Ravens will be delighted to be going back to the Superbowl after so many close calls in recent years. They won it in 2000 and have made the playoffs in eight of the twelve seasons that have passed since then. This is their fifth consecutive year in the playoffs and in each of those years, they have won a game but failed to reach the Superbowl, until this season. It will be a very special occasion for the entire franchise and especially their legendary linebacker, Ray Lewis. Lewis announced a few weeks ago that he will be retiring at the end of this season and surely there is no better way for a true NFL legend to go out than with a Superbowl appearance.
Ravens Offensive Star : Joe Flacco - Who is this new guy playing under center for the Ravens? We have saw a completely different Flacco in the playoffs and long may it continue.
Ravens Defensive Star : Ray Lewis - Lewis has been in the conversation in the last two games but he gets the nod this week after a massive 14 tackles.
Patriots Offensive Star : Wes Welker - The Patriots need to get Welker's contract situation sorted as he is a huge player for the franchise.
Patriots Defensive Star : Rob Ninkovich - 8 tackles, two of which were for a loss and 2 sacks were not enough to send the Patriots back to the Superbowl.
The San Francisco 49ers came from 17-0 down to beat the Atlanta Falcons and secure their first Superbowl appearance since 1994.
The 49ers started off very slowly and were 17-0 down early in the second quarter. They rallied after that though and got back to 17-14 but the Falcons got another touchdown before half-time to lead 24-14 at the break. The 49ers defense came up big in the second half though. The Falcons were unable to add to the 24 points they had scored in the first half and the offense got the two touchdowns that were required to complete the comeback.
The defeat will have left some mental scars on the Falcons as they threw away a big league for the second week in a row. Last week they were able to respond with a field goal to win the game but this week a field goal was no use and they needed to get the ball in the end zone but they were unable to get beyond the San Francisco 10 yard line. They got one final chance when the 49ers went three and out and were forced to punt. The Falcons had six seconds on the clock and the ball on their own 41. The play had to be a Hail Mary or some sort of a lateral play but instead the Falcons played a mid range pass to Julio Jones at the 49ers 35 and he was tackled instantly which ended the game. The Falcons had no timeouts left and the pass was played into the middle of the field so I have no idea what they were thinking of. That play summed up the Falcons entire second half and they never really looked likely to score until the drive just after the 49ers scored. Much of the criticism should be handed to the coaches. They were having some success early on by being aggressive on offense. Once they got into the lead they changed styles and tried to protect their lead. They had all the momentum and let it slip but they are not the first team to make that mistake and certainly won't be the last.
Matt Ryan had a mixed game. He threw for 396 yards and 3 touchdowns but he was also responsible for two bad turnovers. He was intercepted after throwing the ball straight to Chris Culliver and he also lost a fumble when he took his eyes off the ball on a shotgun snap. Turnovers aside, he was excellent but everyone knows that turnovers will cost you games and it was the case yesterday. The Falcons weren't great on the ground, picking up 81 yards from 23 running plays. The Falcons were once again led in the passing game by their three big stars, Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. Jones caught 11 passes for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns. White caught 7 passes for 100 yards and Gonzalez caught 8 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown.
The 49ers deserve a lot of credit for their performance. After falling behind so early many teams would have crumbled but the 49ers refused to panic. They stuck to their game plan and were rewarded with two touchdowns to get back to within three but conceded another touchdown just before the half to leave the deficit at ten points. They came out in the second half and continued to plug away and got the gap back to three points with a touchdown early in the third quarter. The teams then had a bit of a crazy spell were both had turnovers and the 49ers missed a field goal before San Francisco eventually took the lead thanks to a Vernon Davis touchdown with just over eight minutes remaining. The 49ers allowed the Falcons to get up the field but a field goal was no use at this stage and they managed to keep them out of the end zone to secure the win.
One man who deserves a lot of credit is quarterback, Colin Kaepernick. He had what I would say was the best game of his career. Everyone knows what he can do on the ground but I'm old fashioned and like a quarterback who can pass the ball. I've spent many an evening over the last month or two writing about how bad a passer he is so it's only right that I acknowledge how good he was in this game. He completed 16 of his 21 passes for 231 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers are very good but they don't do justice to how well he played. He left the running side of the game to the running-backs and stood in the pocket and made some fantastic passes. I have to be honest and say that I didn't think he had that kind of performance in him but he stepped up and played like a pure passer to lead his team to a Superbowl and I can't give him enough credit for that. He's still a young guy and if he can continue to improve as a passer and play with more consistency in that area, he could have a big career in the NFL. Other stars for the 49ers were Frank Gore who ran for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns from 21 carries and Vernon Davis who caught 5 passes for 106 yards and a touchdown.
For the Falcons, there will be a lot of soul searching in the off season. It looks as though Tony Gonzalez will retire which will be a big loss for them. They will also need to address what happened in these playoffs and why they gave away two big leads in their two games. In my opinion, it was bad coaching. They got themselves into good positions with aggressive play calling and then tried to hang onto the lead by relying on their defense and running game to kill time. Neither unit were good enough and the Falcons are at their best when they are going for the jugular and trying to beat teams instead of maintaining leads.
For the 49ers, it's two weeks of studying film, training, hard work and coming up with a plan to pick up a win in New Orleans in the Har-Bowl.
49ers Offensive Star : Colin Kaepernick - Vernon Davis and Frank Gore deserve this just as much but Kaepernick showed us a side to his game that we hadn't really saw before.
49ers Defensive Star : Patrick Willis - Twelve tackles including one for a loss was a good return from the linebacker.
Falcons Offensive Star : Julio Jones - Jones deserved to be in a Superbowl after picking up 182 yards and 2 touchdowns from his 11 catches.
Falcons Defensive Star : Thomas DeCoud - The Falcons safety made 8 tackles and also deflected a pass.
Baltimore Ravens 28-13 New England Patriots
The Baltimore Ravens secured an unlikely passage to the Superbowl after a big win over the New England Patriots last night. Nobody has earned a place in the Superbowl more than this Baltimore Ravens team. They came into the playoffs as the fourth seed and beat the Indianapolis Colts who had a better regular season record than them, the Denver Broncos who looked like the best team in the AFC by quite some distance and finally, the New England Patriots who have more experience of Championship games than any other team in recent years. I did expect them to prevail against the Colts but I gave them next to no chance against the Broncos and the Patriots and on both occasions they have gone into hostile atmosphere's and done the business.
Statistically the game was fairly tight but there were a few key differences between the sides and it turned out to be the difference between winning and losing. I have been banging on all year about turnovers and once again this game was evidence of the fact that it's very hard to win in this league if you turn the ball over. The Patriots turned it over three times and the Ravens managed to avoid any turnovers. The first turnover was costly as the Patriots were eight behind and had drove to midfield and then lost the ball to a fumble. Not content at stopping the Patriots from scoring, the Ravens turned the turnover into points and got a touchdown to extend their lead to fifteen points. The last two were interceptions when the Patriots were in desperation mode. The first was in Ravens territory and the Patriots looked like reducing the gap to eight points with around half the fourth quarter to play. Instead Tom Brady was picked off and the Ravens managed to drive down the field and take 4:44 off the clock. That left the Patriots fifteen behind and just over two minutes left. The Pats were moving the ball down the field but got intercepted again and that left the Ravens in the position were they could take two kneels to finish off the game. The other difference was their success in the red zone. The Ravens went four from four in the red zone and the Patriots only went one from four. They had to kick two field goals and also turned another one over on downs.
Baltimore were once again led by quarterback, Joe Flacco. Flacco has been outstanding in the playoffs and had another fantastic game, throwing for 240 yards and 3 touchdowns. His main targets were Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta. Smith caught 4 passes for 69 yards, Boldin caught 5 for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns and Dennis Pitta caught 5 passes for 55 yards and a touchdown. The ground game wasn't hugely effective and the Patriots done a good job of stopping Ray Rice. He did get a touchdown but they restricted him to just 48 yards from 19 carries. Bernard Pierce was a bit more dangerous and ran for 52 yards from 9 carries.
Tom Brady didn't have a great game for the Patriots, completing 29 of 54 passes for 320 yards, a touchdown and 2 interceptions. When Brady gets to throw 54 passes you expect a lot more than thirteen points to show for it. His leading receivers were Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Brandon Lloyd. Welker led the way with 8 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. Hernandez caught 9 passes for 83 yards and Lloyd caught 7 passes for 70 yards. Stevan Ridley was the leading rusher and picked up 70 yards from his 18 carries. He was also the man responsible for the fumble that led to the Ravens fourth touchdown so it wasn't a great day for the running-back.
To be honest, I'm not sure were the Patriots go from here. Eight seasons have passed since they last won the Superbowl and for guys like Tom Brady and Bill Belichick who set their standards so high, it's not good enough. They have been in the playoffs in seven of those eight seasons and their regular season record has never been worse than 10-6 but for some reason they keep falling short in the big games. Belichick will undoubtedly look to see what he can do to fix things as they are clearly not far from the right formula but these guys are born winners and anything other than a ring at the end of the season is good enough for the Patriots.
The Baltimore Ravens will be delighted to be going back to the Superbowl after so many close calls in recent years. They won it in 2000 and have made the playoffs in eight of the twelve seasons that have passed since then. This is their fifth consecutive year in the playoffs and in each of those years, they have won a game but failed to reach the Superbowl, until this season. It will be a very special occasion for the entire franchise and especially their legendary linebacker, Ray Lewis. Lewis announced a few weeks ago that he will be retiring at the end of this season and surely there is no better way for a true NFL legend to go out than with a Superbowl appearance.
Ravens Offensive Star : Joe Flacco - Who is this new guy playing under center for the Ravens? We have saw a completely different Flacco in the playoffs and long may it continue.
Ravens Defensive Star : Ray Lewis - Lewis has been in the conversation in the last two games but he gets the nod this week after a massive 14 tackles.
Patriots Offensive Star : Wes Welker - The Patriots need to get Welker's contract situation sorted as he is a huge player for the franchise.
Patriots Defensive Star : Rob Ninkovich - 8 tackles, two of which were for a loss and 2 sacks were not enough to send the Patriots back to the Superbowl.
Sunday, 20 January 2013
NFL Championship Weekend Preview
NFC Championship Game - San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (14-3)
The NFC's top two sides successfully negotiated tough divisional round match ups to secure passage to the Championship Game. The 49ers got it tight for three quarters last week against the Green Bay before sealing the game with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The Falcons had the exact opposite. They cruised for three quarters and led 27-7 as the fourth quarter started but the Seahawks scored three unanswered touchdowns to lead by one before Matt Bryant nailed a 49 yard field goal to secure the Falcon's first playoff victory since 2004.
San Francisco were very impressive in their win against the Green Bay Packers. Colin Kaepernick had a great game and led the ground game. Between his passing and running he played a part in four touchdowns and 444 yards of offense. He was well supported by Frank Gore and Michael Crabtree who also had very good games. News broke yesterday of Michael Crabtree being questioned by police in relation to a sexual assault after the Green Bay game last weekend. Details are sketchy at this point but it is far from ideal preparation for an NFC title game.
Atlanta players must be riding a roller coaster of emotions after last Sunday's epic win over the Seattle Seahawks. It was one of the most amazing games I have saw in all the year's I have been watching NFL but the biggest question will be how much did it take out of the Falcons? Momentum and confidence are great things in sport and right now, I'm not sure Atlanta have either. The 49ers will be feeling pretty good about themselves. They went up against a top side and outplayed them on the way to a win with a strong finish. Atlanta, on the other hand, were cruising towards victory and then before they even realised it themselves, they were behind and suddenly had to do something or their season was over. I expect their players will be relieved but they will also be asking themselves a lot of questions about what went wrong and it will have taken a lot of the confidence that they were no doubt brimming with after three quarters of action.
The match ups in this game are very interesting as both teams prepared for this game by beating a similar team last week. The Falcons beat the Seahawks who have the strong defense, mobile quarterback and elite running-back that the 49ers have. The one big difference though is that the 49ers should have most of their key players available, unlike the Seahawks who looked a little toothless at the line of scrimmage without Chris Clemons. The 49ers beat the Packers last week and once again, they are remarkably similar to the Falcons. Both teams rely heavily on their passing games and aren't particularly strong on the ground or on defense. If anything, the Packers are probably a little better than the Falcons in most of those areas.
The rest of the statistics are quite interesting. The 49ers are 11th in sacking the quarterback but the Falcons have got good protection for Matt Ryan and ranked 7th best in the NFL in the regular season in sacks allowed. On the other side of the field, the Falcons have really struggled to get pressure on the quarterback and ranked 28th in sacks but the 49ers aren't much better at protecting their quarterbacks and ranked 23rd. Both teams are good at protecting the football and both were in the top four in the NFC in giveaways.
Atlanta finished the regular season with the joint best record at 13-3. Many people said they had a soft schedule, which to be fair they did but it can't be ignored that last week's win sent them to 3-0 for the year against teams who qualified for the playoffs. The 49ers had things a little harder and after last week, are 4-2 against teams who made the postseason. It's also worth considering that the Atlanta Falcons have been very good in the Georgia Dome in recent times. They went 7-1 at home this year but their only defeat came in week 17 when the number one seed was in the bag and the team were looking beyond that game.
Prediction - This game is very tough to call. When I look at these two teams and rank them head to head, I am putting more ticks in the San Francisco column. In my opinion the 49ers are the better team and would win this one if it was at a neutral venue but it's not and I have to decide whether the 49ers are good enough to go into a very hostile Atlanta and pick up the win. The last time Colin Kaepernick played in a hostile atmosphere was against the Seahawks and things didn't really work out for him that day. I can see a similar outcome this time and will go with the Atlanta Falcons to reach their second Superbowl in franchise history.
AFC Championship Game - Baltimore Ravens (12-6) @ New England Patriots (13-4)
Baltimore and New England picked up wins last weekend to set up a repeat of last year's AFC title game. On that occasion the Patriots came out on top so the Ravens will be going all out for revenge. The Ravens did avenge that defeat in the regular season but I've no doubt they would quite happily change that one for a win tonight.
The Ravens are the only team who played in the wildcard weekend who are still alive. They have beaten the Colts and Broncos in successive weeks to get this far. The win over the Colts was expected but the Broncos one was a big surprise and they deserve a lot of credit and respect for going into Mile High and leaving with the victory. Joe Flacco has been excellent in the playoffs so far, throwing for over 600 yards, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. Ray Rice was also very good against the Broncos after a mixed game against the Colts. Against the Colts, he had 100 yards from scrimmage but never done his team any favours with two lost fumbles. He never let it get to him though and bounced back with 131 yards and a touchdown on the ground in Denver. If the Ravens can get big performances from those two and at least one of their receivers has a big day there's no reason why they can't get points on the board. On defense their job has got a little easier with Rob Gronkowski's injury. In the two games so far, the Ravens defense has been excellent. They have been very good as a unit and have had some good individual displays from Ray Lewis, Corey Graham and Cary Williams. If the Ravens bring everything that they can, then the Patriots will be in for a tough day but the Ravens have struggled with consistency and it might be a big ask for it all to click for them two weeks in a row.
The Patriots got here with a relatively comfortable win over the Houston Texans. Tom Brady came up big once again, throwing for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns. Wes Welker led the receivers with 8 catches for 131 yards. Shane Vereen also had a huge game, picking up 124 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns. Steven Ridley and Aaron Hernandez also done their bit in winning the game for the Patriots. New England look better this season than in previous years. They have a much better running game than they have ever had in the Tom Brady era and they can also do a bit on defense and have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Patriots will rightly start this game as favourites but when these two get together, the games are always tight.
When I look at the match ups in this one, it looks very one sided. The only place the Ravens are better than the Patriots is on pass defense but even at that both sides are ranked in the bottom half of the league. The Ravens were 17th and the Patriots were 29th. In every other statistic the teams were either level or the Patriots ranked higher. New England ranked 4th in passing, 7th in rushing and 9th in run defense. The Ravens were 15th in passing, 11th in rushing and 20th in run defense. Having said that, the Ravens have looked much better in the playoffs and ultimately the only statistic that matters is the one with the scoreline.
One of the key's in New England's success has been their ability to protect the football and their quarterback. They allowed just 27 sacks on Tom Brady which ranked 4th in the league. When a guy with Brady's talent gets time in the pocket, he's going to cause damage. The Ravens haven't been as good at protecting Joe Flacco and they ranked 20th in the NFL in sack's allowed. Both defenses sacked the opposing quarterback 37 times which was joint 15th in the league.
Prediction - All signs point to New England. I have a bit of a soft spot for Ray Lewis though and would have no objections to seeing him dance his way onto the field in two weeks time in the Superbowl but I have to go with my head and not my heart. The best quarterback I have saw in my time watching the NFL is Tom Brady and he's the one guy I will always believe in. Patriots win.
The NFC's top two sides successfully negotiated tough divisional round match ups to secure passage to the Championship Game. The 49ers got it tight for three quarters last week against the Green Bay before sealing the game with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The Falcons had the exact opposite. They cruised for three quarters and led 27-7 as the fourth quarter started but the Seahawks scored three unanswered touchdowns to lead by one before Matt Bryant nailed a 49 yard field goal to secure the Falcon's first playoff victory since 2004.
San Francisco were very impressive in their win against the Green Bay Packers. Colin Kaepernick had a great game and led the ground game. Between his passing and running he played a part in four touchdowns and 444 yards of offense. He was well supported by Frank Gore and Michael Crabtree who also had very good games. News broke yesterday of Michael Crabtree being questioned by police in relation to a sexual assault after the Green Bay game last weekend. Details are sketchy at this point but it is far from ideal preparation for an NFC title game.
Atlanta players must be riding a roller coaster of emotions after last Sunday's epic win over the Seattle Seahawks. It was one of the most amazing games I have saw in all the year's I have been watching NFL but the biggest question will be how much did it take out of the Falcons? Momentum and confidence are great things in sport and right now, I'm not sure Atlanta have either. The 49ers will be feeling pretty good about themselves. They went up against a top side and outplayed them on the way to a win with a strong finish. Atlanta, on the other hand, were cruising towards victory and then before they even realised it themselves, they were behind and suddenly had to do something or their season was over. I expect their players will be relieved but they will also be asking themselves a lot of questions about what went wrong and it will have taken a lot of the confidence that they were no doubt brimming with after three quarters of action.
The match ups in this game are very interesting as both teams prepared for this game by beating a similar team last week. The Falcons beat the Seahawks who have the strong defense, mobile quarterback and elite running-back that the 49ers have. The one big difference though is that the 49ers should have most of their key players available, unlike the Seahawks who looked a little toothless at the line of scrimmage without Chris Clemons. The 49ers beat the Packers last week and once again, they are remarkably similar to the Falcons. Both teams rely heavily on their passing games and aren't particularly strong on the ground or on defense. If anything, the Packers are probably a little better than the Falcons in most of those areas.
The rest of the statistics are quite interesting. The 49ers are 11th in sacking the quarterback but the Falcons have got good protection for Matt Ryan and ranked 7th best in the NFL in the regular season in sacks allowed. On the other side of the field, the Falcons have really struggled to get pressure on the quarterback and ranked 28th in sacks but the 49ers aren't much better at protecting their quarterbacks and ranked 23rd. Both teams are good at protecting the football and both were in the top four in the NFC in giveaways.
Atlanta finished the regular season with the joint best record at 13-3. Many people said they had a soft schedule, which to be fair they did but it can't be ignored that last week's win sent them to 3-0 for the year against teams who qualified for the playoffs. The 49ers had things a little harder and after last week, are 4-2 against teams who made the postseason. It's also worth considering that the Atlanta Falcons have been very good in the Georgia Dome in recent times. They went 7-1 at home this year but their only defeat came in week 17 when the number one seed was in the bag and the team were looking beyond that game.
Prediction - This game is very tough to call. When I look at these two teams and rank them head to head, I am putting more ticks in the San Francisco column. In my opinion the 49ers are the better team and would win this one if it was at a neutral venue but it's not and I have to decide whether the 49ers are good enough to go into a very hostile Atlanta and pick up the win. The last time Colin Kaepernick played in a hostile atmosphere was against the Seahawks and things didn't really work out for him that day. I can see a similar outcome this time and will go with the Atlanta Falcons to reach their second Superbowl in franchise history.
AFC Championship Game - Baltimore Ravens (12-6) @ New England Patriots (13-4)
Baltimore and New England picked up wins last weekend to set up a repeat of last year's AFC title game. On that occasion the Patriots came out on top so the Ravens will be going all out for revenge. The Ravens did avenge that defeat in the regular season but I've no doubt they would quite happily change that one for a win tonight.
The Ravens are the only team who played in the wildcard weekend who are still alive. They have beaten the Colts and Broncos in successive weeks to get this far. The win over the Colts was expected but the Broncos one was a big surprise and they deserve a lot of credit and respect for going into Mile High and leaving with the victory. Joe Flacco has been excellent in the playoffs so far, throwing for over 600 yards, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. Ray Rice was also very good against the Broncos after a mixed game against the Colts. Against the Colts, he had 100 yards from scrimmage but never done his team any favours with two lost fumbles. He never let it get to him though and bounced back with 131 yards and a touchdown on the ground in Denver. If the Ravens can get big performances from those two and at least one of their receivers has a big day there's no reason why they can't get points on the board. On defense their job has got a little easier with Rob Gronkowski's injury. In the two games so far, the Ravens defense has been excellent. They have been very good as a unit and have had some good individual displays from Ray Lewis, Corey Graham and Cary Williams. If the Ravens bring everything that they can, then the Patriots will be in for a tough day but the Ravens have struggled with consistency and it might be a big ask for it all to click for them two weeks in a row.
The Patriots got here with a relatively comfortable win over the Houston Texans. Tom Brady came up big once again, throwing for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns. Wes Welker led the receivers with 8 catches for 131 yards. Shane Vereen also had a huge game, picking up 124 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns. Steven Ridley and Aaron Hernandez also done their bit in winning the game for the Patriots. New England look better this season than in previous years. They have a much better running game than they have ever had in the Tom Brady era and they can also do a bit on defense and have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Patriots will rightly start this game as favourites but when these two get together, the games are always tight.
When I look at the match ups in this one, it looks very one sided. The only place the Ravens are better than the Patriots is on pass defense but even at that both sides are ranked in the bottom half of the league. The Ravens were 17th and the Patriots were 29th. In every other statistic the teams were either level or the Patriots ranked higher. New England ranked 4th in passing, 7th in rushing and 9th in run defense. The Ravens were 15th in passing, 11th in rushing and 20th in run defense. Having said that, the Ravens have looked much better in the playoffs and ultimately the only statistic that matters is the one with the scoreline.
One of the key's in New England's success has been their ability to protect the football and their quarterback. They allowed just 27 sacks on Tom Brady which ranked 4th in the league. When a guy with Brady's talent gets time in the pocket, he's going to cause damage. The Ravens haven't been as good at protecting Joe Flacco and they ranked 20th in the NFL in sack's allowed. Both defenses sacked the opposing quarterback 37 times which was joint 15th in the league.
Prediction - All signs point to New England. I have a bit of a soft spot for Ray Lewis though and would have no objections to seeing him dance his way onto the field in two weeks time in the Superbowl but I have to go with my head and not my heart. The best quarterback I have saw in my time watching the NFL is Tom Brady and he's the one guy I will always believe in. Patriots win.
Sunday, 13 January 2013
NFL PLAYOFFS - Sunday's Divisional Round Preview
Seattle Seahawks (12-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
Seattle and Atlanta start Sunday's divisional round match ups and it looks like being another fantastic day. Seattle earned their place here courtesy of a win over the Washington Redskins last week. The Seahawks got off to a slow start but they came back into it thanks to a great performance from their defense and their running game.
Unfortunately for the Seahawks that win came at a price. Defensive end, Chris Clemons picked up an injury that has ruled him out. Clemons absence will be a huge void to fill for the Seahawks. He leads the team in sacks (11.5) and this game was always going to come down to how much time Matt Ryan was going to get in the pocket. With Clemons now ruled out the momentum has took a huge swing in Atlanta's favour.
One advantage the Seahawks do have is Russell Wilson. He's a mobile quarterback, who although not as big as Cam Newton, is similar in that he will try to carry the ball down the field himself. The Falcons struggled with Newton during the regular season. Newton's best rushing games both came against the Falcons. If Wilson can get out of the pocket, he can take the ball down the field and as I see it, it's Seattle's best weapon.
Atlanta will look to put the game in the hands of their quarterback, Matt Ryan. Ryan has put up career numbers in the regular season, beating his previous best in yards, touchdowns and pass completion percentage. Ryan has a little extra pressure on him as he has never won a playoff game but as I've already said that statistic is a little bit flawed. All three teams he has played against in the playoffs have went to the Superbowl and two of the three have won the big one. He hasn't had much luck with his opponents and instead of concentrating on how many times Ryan has lost in the playoffs should we not be giving him a little bit of credit. Not many quarterbacks who have been in the NFL for five seasons are about to play in the playoffs for the fourth year. He's obviously doing something right and it's only a matter of time before he gets that first win.
The Falcons game plan will have changed with the injury to Chris Clemons. When they knew they were facing either the Seahawks or the Redskins they would have been looking for weaknesses to exploit. Prior to the injury the Falcons would have been looking to get the ball out quick but they won't face as strong a pass rush now which will open the field up for Julio Jones and Roddy White. If Ryan can get into his stride early he can find those two and they could lead him to that elusive first playoff win.
A look at the match ups would suggest that the Seahawks have a chance here. They were 3rd in running the ball and their defense was also strong, ranking 6th against the pass and 10th against the run. Their passing game was poor, ranking just 27th but they were 32nd for a long time and as the weeks have gone by they have trusted Wilson more and he hasn't let them down. The Falcons ranked 6th in passing and 29th in rushing. Their defense was 23rd against the pass and 21st against the run. The Falcons didn't do a great job of sacking the opponent's quarterback, picking up just 29 sacks (28th in the NFL) and I can't see that improving today. They will be more than happy to stop Wilson getting first downs rather than getting to him behind the line of scrimmage. The Falcons have done a decent job of protecting Ryan, allowing just 28 sacks.
Prediction - With Clemons, I would have gone for Seattle but momentum has swung far enough for me to change my mind and go with Matt Ryan getting his first playoff win.
Houston Texans (13-4) @ New England Patriots (12-4)
The divisional round ends in New England with a potentially great match up. This game should really be in Houston but the Texans collapsed in the regular season, losing three of their last four games. Prior to that, the Texans looked certain to be the AFC's top seed but the loss of form cost them and meant they had to host the Cincinnati Bengals in last week's wildcard round. The Texans got the win in that one but it was far from impressive and they will need to improve a lot if they are to beat the Patriots.
The Patriots are an interesting prospect this season. They have always had a good passing game but their running game and run defense are good this year too. In recent years the Patriots have been quite one dimensional, although their passing game was good enough to get them to a Superbowl last year but this year they can let their running game take some extra responsibility and their defense is also a bit better. They are still not great defending the pass but after last night's results they now only have to defend Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco for a trip to another Superbowl. Neither of those two are known for their passing and both have strong running-backs to help them out.
Another big strength for the Patriots is turnovers. They have turned the ball over just 16 times and their defense has forced 41 turnovers. They have also done a good job of protecting Tom Brady and have allowed him to be sacked just 27 times. The Texans are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to sacks though so it will be one of the key battles where the game will be won and lost. The Patriots come into the game in good form, having won nine of their last ten games. They picked up a big win over the Texans in week 14 and Houston will have their hands full if they want to spring a surprise.
The Texans have had a good year statistically. Their passing game was 11th, running game was 8th, pass defense was 16th and run defense was 7th. They also sacked the opponents quarterback 44 times which ranked 5th in the NFL and they only allowed their quarterback to be sacked 28 times which was 7th best in the league. They forced 29 turnovers and gave the ball away 17 times. Based on that the Texans are one of the best teams in the league but the problem I have is they have slowed down a lot in recent weeks and in my opinion they peaked too early.
There is a few question marks over how healthy the Patriots are heading into this one. A lot of their key players have been listed on injury reports this week and it remains to be seen what sort of condition they are in. I wouldn't be totally surprised if all the injured players took to the field tonight and that this was simply the latest in a long line of mind games from Bill Belichick.
Prediction - This should be a tight game but on current form I have to go with the home team, Patriots win.
Seattle and Atlanta start Sunday's divisional round match ups and it looks like being another fantastic day. Seattle earned their place here courtesy of a win over the Washington Redskins last week. The Seahawks got off to a slow start but they came back into it thanks to a great performance from their defense and their running game.
Unfortunately for the Seahawks that win came at a price. Defensive end, Chris Clemons picked up an injury that has ruled him out. Clemons absence will be a huge void to fill for the Seahawks. He leads the team in sacks (11.5) and this game was always going to come down to how much time Matt Ryan was going to get in the pocket. With Clemons now ruled out the momentum has took a huge swing in Atlanta's favour.
One advantage the Seahawks do have is Russell Wilson. He's a mobile quarterback, who although not as big as Cam Newton, is similar in that he will try to carry the ball down the field himself. The Falcons struggled with Newton during the regular season. Newton's best rushing games both came against the Falcons. If Wilson can get out of the pocket, he can take the ball down the field and as I see it, it's Seattle's best weapon.
Atlanta will look to put the game in the hands of their quarterback, Matt Ryan. Ryan has put up career numbers in the regular season, beating his previous best in yards, touchdowns and pass completion percentage. Ryan has a little extra pressure on him as he has never won a playoff game but as I've already said that statistic is a little bit flawed. All three teams he has played against in the playoffs have went to the Superbowl and two of the three have won the big one. He hasn't had much luck with his opponents and instead of concentrating on how many times Ryan has lost in the playoffs should we not be giving him a little bit of credit. Not many quarterbacks who have been in the NFL for five seasons are about to play in the playoffs for the fourth year. He's obviously doing something right and it's only a matter of time before he gets that first win.
The Falcons game plan will have changed with the injury to Chris Clemons. When they knew they were facing either the Seahawks or the Redskins they would have been looking for weaknesses to exploit. Prior to the injury the Falcons would have been looking to get the ball out quick but they won't face as strong a pass rush now which will open the field up for Julio Jones and Roddy White. If Ryan can get into his stride early he can find those two and they could lead him to that elusive first playoff win.
A look at the match ups would suggest that the Seahawks have a chance here. They were 3rd in running the ball and their defense was also strong, ranking 6th against the pass and 10th against the run. Their passing game was poor, ranking just 27th but they were 32nd for a long time and as the weeks have gone by they have trusted Wilson more and he hasn't let them down. The Falcons ranked 6th in passing and 29th in rushing. Their defense was 23rd against the pass and 21st against the run. The Falcons didn't do a great job of sacking the opponent's quarterback, picking up just 29 sacks (28th in the NFL) and I can't see that improving today. They will be more than happy to stop Wilson getting first downs rather than getting to him behind the line of scrimmage. The Falcons have done a decent job of protecting Ryan, allowing just 28 sacks.
Prediction - With Clemons, I would have gone for Seattle but momentum has swung far enough for me to change my mind and go with Matt Ryan getting his first playoff win.
Houston Texans (13-4) @ New England Patriots (12-4)
The divisional round ends in New England with a potentially great match up. This game should really be in Houston but the Texans collapsed in the regular season, losing three of their last four games. Prior to that, the Texans looked certain to be the AFC's top seed but the loss of form cost them and meant they had to host the Cincinnati Bengals in last week's wildcard round. The Texans got the win in that one but it was far from impressive and they will need to improve a lot if they are to beat the Patriots.
The Patriots are an interesting prospect this season. They have always had a good passing game but their running game and run defense are good this year too. In recent years the Patriots have been quite one dimensional, although their passing game was good enough to get them to a Superbowl last year but this year they can let their running game take some extra responsibility and their defense is also a bit better. They are still not great defending the pass but after last night's results they now only have to defend Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco for a trip to another Superbowl. Neither of those two are known for their passing and both have strong running-backs to help them out.
Another big strength for the Patriots is turnovers. They have turned the ball over just 16 times and their defense has forced 41 turnovers. They have also done a good job of protecting Tom Brady and have allowed him to be sacked just 27 times. The Texans are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to sacks though so it will be one of the key battles where the game will be won and lost. The Patriots come into the game in good form, having won nine of their last ten games. They picked up a big win over the Texans in week 14 and Houston will have their hands full if they want to spring a surprise.
The Texans have had a good year statistically. Their passing game was 11th, running game was 8th, pass defense was 16th and run defense was 7th. They also sacked the opponents quarterback 44 times which ranked 5th in the NFL and they only allowed their quarterback to be sacked 28 times which was 7th best in the league. They forced 29 turnovers and gave the ball away 17 times. Based on that the Texans are one of the best teams in the league but the problem I have is they have slowed down a lot in recent weeks and in my opinion they peaked too early.
There is a few question marks over how healthy the Patriots are heading into this one. A lot of their key players have been listed on injury reports this week and it remains to be seen what sort of condition they are in. I wouldn't be totally surprised if all the injured players took to the field tonight and that this was simply the latest in a long line of mind games from Bill Belichick.
Prediction - This should be a tight game but on current form I have to go with the home team, Patriots win.
Saturday, 12 January 2013
Saturday's Divisional Round Games
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) @ Denver Broncos (13-3)
Baltimore travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in the AFC's divisional round opener. The Broncos have the number one seed and home advantage right to the Superbowl. They have earned that with eleven consecutive victories to finish 13-3 for the season. They were in the playoffs last year and got to this same stage but they made a franchise changing signing by bringing in Peyton Manning and look better for it. At the time it was seen as a gamble as Manning was coming back from several neck surgeries and many experts had written him off. A slow start only increased the pressure on him but it doesn't seem to matter to Manning. He began to find his form after a few games and ended up having one of the best seasons of his career. This year will mean a lot to Manning as I'm sure there would have been doubts in his own mind when he was struggling with injury and what could be a better end to a great season than to win a Superbowl in the city he was born in and where his father spent the bulk of his career. It would be the perfect end to a fantastic year for the Broncos quarterback.
The Ravens have their own romantic story. Legendary linebacker, Ray Lewis has confirmed that this will be his last season in the NFL and how fitting would it be if he ended it with a ring in Superbowl XLVII. He has already played his last game in Baltimore which was an emotional occasion and that emotion will carry over each week now as every time he takes to the field, he knows it could potentially be his last game. Lewis has had a great career which has saw him win a Superbowl, Superbowl MVP, Defensive Player of the Year (twice), voted into the Pro Bowl thirteen times and named as an All-Pro seven times. Those are the numbers of a Hall of Famer and there can be no doubt that regardless of how this year ends, Lewis is worthy of a place in the hall.
Last week the Ravens picked up a win over the Indianapolis Colts but they didn't have it all their own way. The Colts completed dominated possession and had the ball for over 37 minutes but were unable to finish off their drives. If Baltimore are going to have any chance, they need to restrict Peyton Manning's time on the field as much as they possibly can. If Manning gets the ball for 37 minutes, you can be sure he wouldn't waste the opportunity and would put at least 40 points on the board. The Ravens need to keep the clock moving, which means plenty of running plays, plenty of short passes and if they can do that, then they can give themselves a chance.
The problem the Ravens have is the Broncos have got one of the best defenses in the league. They ranked 3rd in the regular season in both pass defense and run defense, giving up an average of just 290.7 yards per game which was the second best record in the NFL. They gave up just 18.1 points per game which was 4th and they sacked the opponents quarterback 52 times which was the best in the league. That's a great return and with a defense as mean as that, you are halfway to having a good shot at a title. The other half required is a good offense and Denver are right up there in that category too. They are averaging just under 400 yards a game which is fourth in the league and they are scoring 30.1 points per game which is second in the NFL, behind the New England Patriots. A big reason for that success is the protection they have been giving Peyton Manning. They have allowed just 21 sacks this season which is the second best record in the league. When any quarterback gets protection like that, he will hurt the opposition but when you have an elite quarterback like Manning getting that sort of protection, that's the stuff Superbowl's are made of.
When I look at the match ups, it doesn't look good for the Ravens. The only place they have an edge is turnovers. The Ravens have done a good job of taking care of the football, turning it over just 16 times in the regular season. The Broncos defense's one weakness is they have only forced 24 turnovers but when you're sacking the quarterback as much as they do, he doesn't get to throw many interceptions. Denver have turned the ball over 25 times and the Ravens defense forced 25 in the regular season. The problem is, I can't see them getting enough pressure on Manning to force him into the mistakes they need him to make.
Prediction - I really fancy the Broncos for the Superbowl and can't see the Ravens giving them too much trouble.
Green Bay Packers (12-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
This is the game I am looking forward to the most this weekend. It should be an absolute cracker between two strong sides. They met in Green Bay in the opening weekend of the season and on that occasion the 49ers came out on top. A lot has changed since then though and for me the Packers have improved and the 49ers have weakened.
Green Bay got here courtesy of a comfortable win over the Minnesota Vikings in last week's wildcard round. They done a decent job of restricting Adrian Peterson to 99 yards and Joe Webb had a terrible day, completing just over a third of his passes. The Packers were solid without ever really being exceptional but they done enough to beat a misfiring Vikings. Aaron Rodgers completed 23 of 33 passes for 274 yards and a touchdown. The Packers are almost back at full strength now and will be a match for anyone in the NFC as long as they can get their best players on the field.
The 49ers have been at the centre of a lot of controversy as a result of changing their quarterback half way through the season. Colin Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith after Smith got injured against the Rams in week 10. I've made it clear in the past that I don't think it was the right move and had many a debate with NFL fans about it but I will stand by my comments and say that I believe Alex Smith was the best option for the 49ers this year. The 49ers system requires a quarterback who is required to make short, accurate passes and that job is done better by Alex Smith. They both attempted 218 passes this year with Smith completing 153 compared to Kaepernick's 136. Smith had more touchdowns and ended the season with a higher QB rating. There can be no doubt that Kaepernick brings more in the ground game but there has been a drop in Frank Gore's numbers since Kaepernick came in and I can't believe that anyone would want Kaepernick carrying the ball down the field instead of Gore.
The match ups are quite intriguing as well. The 49ers have a very strong defense and ranked 4th in both pass defense and run defense. More interesting though is the fact that they weren't particularly impressive in sacks or turnovers. Most top defenses are very good at one or the other but the 49ers are mid table in both. They are giving up 294 yards per game which is excellent and ranks 3rd in the NFL. They are 4th in rushing but the passing game hasn't been great and ranked 23rd in the regular season. A big part of this game hangs on the 49ers defense getting to Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been sacked a lot this year but the 49ers haven't been great in getting to the quarterback. The 49ers defense have 38 sacks this year and when you consider Aldon Smith got 19.5 on his own, the numbers aren't that great. Aldon Smith's productivity has dropped in recent weeks since Justin Smith's injury and with the news that both are only listed as probable for this game I would worry about what Aaron Rodgers could do to the 49ers.
Green Bay will play their usual game. They will primarily look to pass the ball and will only run it to keep the defense honest. They ran the ball a lot more last week but that was more to do with how the game was playing out. Over the season the Packers have attempted to pass on over 56% of their plays but I would expect that figure to be a bit higher tomorrow night.
Prediction - This game will be decided on who wins the battle between the Packers offensive line and the 49ers defensive line. If the Packers win that battle, they will win this game easily. If it's an even battle, the Packers will win in a tight win. I'm going to put my faith in Aaron Rodgers finding a way of getting it done and sending Green Bay to the NFC title game.
Baltimore travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in the AFC's divisional round opener. The Broncos have the number one seed and home advantage right to the Superbowl. They have earned that with eleven consecutive victories to finish 13-3 for the season. They were in the playoffs last year and got to this same stage but they made a franchise changing signing by bringing in Peyton Manning and look better for it. At the time it was seen as a gamble as Manning was coming back from several neck surgeries and many experts had written him off. A slow start only increased the pressure on him but it doesn't seem to matter to Manning. He began to find his form after a few games and ended up having one of the best seasons of his career. This year will mean a lot to Manning as I'm sure there would have been doubts in his own mind when he was struggling with injury and what could be a better end to a great season than to win a Superbowl in the city he was born in and where his father spent the bulk of his career. It would be the perfect end to a fantastic year for the Broncos quarterback.
The Ravens have their own romantic story. Legendary linebacker, Ray Lewis has confirmed that this will be his last season in the NFL and how fitting would it be if he ended it with a ring in Superbowl XLVII. He has already played his last game in Baltimore which was an emotional occasion and that emotion will carry over each week now as every time he takes to the field, he knows it could potentially be his last game. Lewis has had a great career which has saw him win a Superbowl, Superbowl MVP, Defensive Player of the Year (twice), voted into the Pro Bowl thirteen times and named as an All-Pro seven times. Those are the numbers of a Hall of Famer and there can be no doubt that regardless of how this year ends, Lewis is worthy of a place in the hall.
Last week the Ravens picked up a win over the Indianapolis Colts but they didn't have it all their own way. The Colts completed dominated possession and had the ball for over 37 minutes but were unable to finish off their drives. If Baltimore are going to have any chance, they need to restrict Peyton Manning's time on the field as much as they possibly can. If Manning gets the ball for 37 minutes, you can be sure he wouldn't waste the opportunity and would put at least 40 points on the board. The Ravens need to keep the clock moving, which means plenty of running plays, plenty of short passes and if they can do that, then they can give themselves a chance.
The problem the Ravens have is the Broncos have got one of the best defenses in the league. They ranked 3rd in the regular season in both pass defense and run defense, giving up an average of just 290.7 yards per game which was the second best record in the NFL. They gave up just 18.1 points per game which was 4th and they sacked the opponents quarterback 52 times which was the best in the league. That's a great return and with a defense as mean as that, you are halfway to having a good shot at a title. The other half required is a good offense and Denver are right up there in that category too. They are averaging just under 400 yards a game which is fourth in the league and they are scoring 30.1 points per game which is second in the NFL, behind the New England Patriots. A big reason for that success is the protection they have been giving Peyton Manning. They have allowed just 21 sacks this season which is the second best record in the league. When any quarterback gets protection like that, he will hurt the opposition but when you have an elite quarterback like Manning getting that sort of protection, that's the stuff Superbowl's are made of.
When I look at the match ups, it doesn't look good for the Ravens. The only place they have an edge is turnovers. The Ravens have done a good job of taking care of the football, turning it over just 16 times in the regular season. The Broncos defense's one weakness is they have only forced 24 turnovers but when you're sacking the quarterback as much as they do, he doesn't get to throw many interceptions. Denver have turned the ball over 25 times and the Ravens defense forced 25 in the regular season. The problem is, I can't see them getting enough pressure on Manning to force him into the mistakes they need him to make.
Prediction - I really fancy the Broncos for the Superbowl and can't see the Ravens giving them too much trouble.
Green Bay Packers (12-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
This is the game I am looking forward to the most this weekend. It should be an absolute cracker between two strong sides. They met in Green Bay in the opening weekend of the season and on that occasion the 49ers came out on top. A lot has changed since then though and for me the Packers have improved and the 49ers have weakened.
Green Bay got here courtesy of a comfortable win over the Minnesota Vikings in last week's wildcard round. They done a decent job of restricting Adrian Peterson to 99 yards and Joe Webb had a terrible day, completing just over a third of his passes. The Packers were solid without ever really being exceptional but they done enough to beat a misfiring Vikings. Aaron Rodgers completed 23 of 33 passes for 274 yards and a touchdown. The Packers are almost back at full strength now and will be a match for anyone in the NFC as long as they can get their best players on the field.
The 49ers have been at the centre of a lot of controversy as a result of changing their quarterback half way through the season. Colin Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith after Smith got injured against the Rams in week 10. I've made it clear in the past that I don't think it was the right move and had many a debate with NFL fans about it but I will stand by my comments and say that I believe Alex Smith was the best option for the 49ers this year. The 49ers system requires a quarterback who is required to make short, accurate passes and that job is done better by Alex Smith. They both attempted 218 passes this year with Smith completing 153 compared to Kaepernick's 136. Smith had more touchdowns and ended the season with a higher QB rating. There can be no doubt that Kaepernick brings more in the ground game but there has been a drop in Frank Gore's numbers since Kaepernick came in and I can't believe that anyone would want Kaepernick carrying the ball down the field instead of Gore.
The match ups are quite intriguing as well. The 49ers have a very strong defense and ranked 4th in both pass defense and run defense. More interesting though is the fact that they weren't particularly impressive in sacks or turnovers. Most top defenses are very good at one or the other but the 49ers are mid table in both. They are giving up 294 yards per game which is excellent and ranks 3rd in the NFL. They are 4th in rushing but the passing game hasn't been great and ranked 23rd in the regular season. A big part of this game hangs on the 49ers defense getting to Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been sacked a lot this year but the 49ers haven't been great in getting to the quarterback. The 49ers defense have 38 sacks this year and when you consider Aldon Smith got 19.5 on his own, the numbers aren't that great. Aldon Smith's productivity has dropped in recent weeks since Justin Smith's injury and with the news that both are only listed as probable for this game I would worry about what Aaron Rodgers could do to the 49ers.
Green Bay will play their usual game. They will primarily look to pass the ball and will only run it to keep the defense honest. They ran the ball a lot more last week but that was more to do with how the game was playing out. Over the season the Packers have attempted to pass on over 56% of their plays but I would expect that figure to be a bit higher tomorrow night.
Prediction - This game will be decided on who wins the battle between the Packers offensive line and the 49ers defensive line. If the Packers win that battle, they will win this game easily. If it's an even battle, the Packers will win in a tight win. I'm going to put my faith in Aaron Rodgers finding a way of getting it done and sending Green Bay to the NFC title game.
Wednesday, 9 January 2013
NFL - Sunday's Wildcard Games Review
Indianapolis Colts 9-24 Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens picked up a win over the Indianapolis Colts in Ray Lewis' last game at M & T Bank Stadium, to set up a divisional round trip to Denver. The first half was extremely tight but the Ravens got there in the head with a strong second half showing.
Indianapolis had their chances but they were unable to take them and Andrew Luck was let down by his receivers who struggled all day. The Colts dominated the time of possession but the big difference was that they went 0-3 in the red zone compared to the Ravens who went 3-5. If the Colts had converted at least two of those it would have made the game a bit more interesting for the neutral. It wasn't to be however and instead the Colts will now reflect on an emotional year where the team's personnel was completely turned over and they also went through the emotional roller coaster that surrounded Coach Pagano's battle with leukemia.
Andrew Luck ended the game with 28 completions from 54 pass attempts for 288 yards and an interception. I know his receivers weren't great but I am starting to think people might be over rating him. He has hovered around that completion rate of just over 50% all year. To throw for over 4000 yards was a great achievement for him but when you consider he threw the ball 627 times and had a pass completion percentage that was worse than Mark Sanchez, he suddenly doesn't look as good as people seem to think. One thing I will give him credit for is his play after the interception. He chased Cary Williams right down the field and made the tackle to stop a certain touchdown. Most quarterbacks would have let the ball get to the end zone instead of making the tackle. Reggie Wayne was the leading receiver again, catching 9 passes for 114 yards. Vick Ballard had another good day on the ground, running for 91 yards from 22 carries.
Joe Flacco's completion percentage could have been better (52%) but other than that his numbers were solid. He completed 12 of 23 passes for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns. His best receiver was Anquan Boldin who had an excellent game. Boldin caught 5 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens also done a lot of damage on the ground. They totaled 172 yards on the ground and it was Bernard Pierce who done the bulk of the damage. Pierce ran for 103 yards from just 13 carries. He was assisted by Ray Rice who had a good game, rushing for 70 yards from 15 carries.
The Ravens will now face the NFL's in form team when they travel to Denver to take on the Broncos. It will be a big ask for the Ravens who lost at home to the Broncos in week 15. A win would certainly not be beyond them but it would take every man on the roster performing to the maximum of their potential. Either way one of two great veterans will be heading to the AFC Championship game but the question is, will it be Ray Lewis or Peyton Manning?
Colts Offensive Star : Reggie Wayne - The veteran receiver caught 9 passes for 114 yards to end what was a very good year for him.
Colts Defensive Star : Antoine Bethea - The safety made 10 tackles in what was a bad day for the Colts defense.
Ravens Offensive Star : Anquan Boldin - Boldin made 5 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown which was a good return but when you watch the catches a time or two, some of them really were outstanding.
Ravens Defensive Star : Paul Kruger - It was between Kruger and Lewis who both had good days but for me Kruger was the difference. He made 4 tackles but it was the problems he gave Andrew Luck that got him the nod. He picked up 2.5 sacks and also had 5 hits on the quarterback. If he can do that in Denver, then the Ravens have a chance.
Seattle Seahawks 24-14 Washington Redskins
The Seahawks picked up a big win in Washington to keep their Superbowl hopes alive. They got off to the worst possible start, going 14-0 behind by the end of the first quarter. Things weren't looking good for the Seahawks at that stage but they got themselves back into it with a strong second quarter and then secured the win in the fourth.
It's easy to say with hindsight but Redskins head coach, Mike Shanahan had an absolute nightmare. Quarterback, Robert Griffin III, took a knock in the drive that put the Redskins 14-0 up. As time went on it became clear that the injury was serious and it was effecting his performance. Shanahan didn't seem to care and left Griffin in the game. In the end, Griffin's knee finally gave in and seemed to go from underneath him. The result was RG3's knee having to be completely rebuilt. Shanahan said that Griffin told him he wanted to play. As a coach, does he just let anyone who wants to play, play? If Kirk Cousins came to him and said I want to play, does he do it? Of course he doesn't. He is there to make these decisions on behalf of the Washington Redskins and he didn't do it on Sunday night. He let Griffin down, the other players down and the future of the Washington Redskins down. A blind man could see that Griffin was hurt and was performing below his usual standards but Shanahan seems more concerned about winning now than the long term future of the franchise.
RG3 ended the game with 84 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. He also managed 21 yards on the ground. Alfred Morris was the lead rusher, picking up 80 yards from his 16 carries. The leading receiver was Pierre Garcon with 4 catches for 50 yards. The Redskins will have a long off season now to think about what might have been and most of the questions will be about RG3's future. This is his second serious knee injury and my initial thoughts are that he most likely won't be the same again.
Seattle done well after the first quarter and their offense and defense were completely dominant. Russell Wilson had a solid game completing 15 of 26 passes for 187 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for 67 yards from 8 carries. Seattle's receivers were led by Zach Miller who caught 4 passes for 48 yards. Marshawn Lynch had another great game, rushing for 132 yards and a touchdown from just 20 carries.
The win for Seattle sees them travel to Atlanta to take on the NFC's number one seed, the Atlanta Falcons. If Seattle turn up and play like they did in the first quarter, the Falcons will finish them off and their season will be over. If it's the Seattle who finished the game, they might just hand Matt Ryan yet another playoff defeat. The defense looked scary good after their first quarter blip and Matt Ryan is prone to the odd multiple interception game and if it's going to happen, it will happen against a defense that is as aggressive as the Seahawks.
Seahawks Offensive Star : Marshawn Lynch - Lynch had another big day rushing for 132 yards and a touchdown at 6.6 yards per carry. In this form Lynch can be a danger to any defense.
Seahawks Defensive Star : Bobby Wagner - The linebacker made 9 tackles including one for a loss in a fine display.
Redskins Offensive Star : Alfred Morris - 80 rushing yards at 5 yards per carry was a good return from the rookie, unfortunately he was on his own.
Redskins Defensive Star : Reed Doughty - 13 tackles, 2 sacks, deflected a pass and hit the quarterback twice, it's all in a days work for Doughty.
The Ravens picked up a win over the Indianapolis Colts in Ray Lewis' last game at M & T Bank Stadium, to set up a divisional round trip to Denver. The first half was extremely tight but the Ravens got there in the head with a strong second half showing.
Indianapolis had their chances but they were unable to take them and Andrew Luck was let down by his receivers who struggled all day. The Colts dominated the time of possession but the big difference was that they went 0-3 in the red zone compared to the Ravens who went 3-5. If the Colts had converted at least two of those it would have made the game a bit more interesting for the neutral. It wasn't to be however and instead the Colts will now reflect on an emotional year where the team's personnel was completely turned over and they also went through the emotional roller coaster that surrounded Coach Pagano's battle with leukemia.
Andrew Luck ended the game with 28 completions from 54 pass attempts for 288 yards and an interception. I know his receivers weren't great but I am starting to think people might be over rating him. He has hovered around that completion rate of just over 50% all year. To throw for over 4000 yards was a great achievement for him but when you consider he threw the ball 627 times and had a pass completion percentage that was worse than Mark Sanchez, he suddenly doesn't look as good as people seem to think. One thing I will give him credit for is his play after the interception. He chased Cary Williams right down the field and made the tackle to stop a certain touchdown. Most quarterbacks would have let the ball get to the end zone instead of making the tackle. Reggie Wayne was the leading receiver again, catching 9 passes for 114 yards. Vick Ballard had another good day on the ground, running for 91 yards from 22 carries.
Joe Flacco's completion percentage could have been better (52%) but other than that his numbers were solid. He completed 12 of 23 passes for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns. His best receiver was Anquan Boldin who had an excellent game. Boldin caught 5 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens also done a lot of damage on the ground. They totaled 172 yards on the ground and it was Bernard Pierce who done the bulk of the damage. Pierce ran for 103 yards from just 13 carries. He was assisted by Ray Rice who had a good game, rushing for 70 yards from 15 carries.
The Ravens will now face the NFL's in form team when they travel to Denver to take on the Broncos. It will be a big ask for the Ravens who lost at home to the Broncos in week 15. A win would certainly not be beyond them but it would take every man on the roster performing to the maximum of their potential. Either way one of two great veterans will be heading to the AFC Championship game but the question is, will it be Ray Lewis or Peyton Manning?
Colts Offensive Star : Reggie Wayne - The veteran receiver caught 9 passes for 114 yards to end what was a very good year for him.
Colts Defensive Star : Antoine Bethea - The safety made 10 tackles in what was a bad day for the Colts defense.
Ravens Offensive Star : Anquan Boldin - Boldin made 5 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown which was a good return but when you watch the catches a time or two, some of them really were outstanding.
Ravens Defensive Star : Paul Kruger - It was between Kruger and Lewis who both had good days but for me Kruger was the difference. He made 4 tackles but it was the problems he gave Andrew Luck that got him the nod. He picked up 2.5 sacks and also had 5 hits on the quarterback. If he can do that in Denver, then the Ravens have a chance.
Seattle Seahawks 24-14 Washington Redskins
The Seahawks picked up a big win in Washington to keep their Superbowl hopes alive. They got off to the worst possible start, going 14-0 behind by the end of the first quarter. Things weren't looking good for the Seahawks at that stage but they got themselves back into it with a strong second quarter and then secured the win in the fourth.
It's easy to say with hindsight but Redskins head coach, Mike Shanahan had an absolute nightmare. Quarterback, Robert Griffin III, took a knock in the drive that put the Redskins 14-0 up. As time went on it became clear that the injury was serious and it was effecting his performance. Shanahan didn't seem to care and left Griffin in the game. In the end, Griffin's knee finally gave in and seemed to go from underneath him. The result was RG3's knee having to be completely rebuilt. Shanahan said that Griffin told him he wanted to play. As a coach, does he just let anyone who wants to play, play? If Kirk Cousins came to him and said I want to play, does he do it? Of course he doesn't. He is there to make these decisions on behalf of the Washington Redskins and he didn't do it on Sunday night. He let Griffin down, the other players down and the future of the Washington Redskins down. A blind man could see that Griffin was hurt and was performing below his usual standards but Shanahan seems more concerned about winning now than the long term future of the franchise.
RG3 ended the game with 84 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. He also managed 21 yards on the ground. Alfred Morris was the lead rusher, picking up 80 yards from his 16 carries. The leading receiver was Pierre Garcon with 4 catches for 50 yards. The Redskins will have a long off season now to think about what might have been and most of the questions will be about RG3's future. This is his second serious knee injury and my initial thoughts are that he most likely won't be the same again.
Seattle done well after the first quarter and their offense and defense were completely dominant. Russell Wilson had a solid game completing 15 of 26 passes for 187 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for 67 yards from 8 carries. Seattle's receivers were led by Zach Miller who caught 4 passes for 48 yards. Marshawn Lynch had another great game, rushing for 132 yards and a touchdown from just 20 carries.
The win for Seattle sees them travel to Atlanta to take on the NFC's number one seed, the Atlanta Falcons. If Seattle turn up and play like they did in the first quarter, the Falcons will finish them off and their season will be over. If it's the Seattle who finished the game, they might just hand Matt Ryan yet another playoff defeat. The defense looked scary good after their first quarter blip and Matt Ryan is prone to the odd multiple interception game and if it's going to happen, it will happen against a defense that is as aggressive as the Seahawks.
Seahawks Offensive Star : Marshawn Lynch - Lynch had another big day rushing for 132 yards and a touchdown at 6.6 yards per carry. In this form Lynch can be a danger to any defense.
Seahawks Defensive Star : Bobby Wagner - The linebacker made 9 tackles including one for a loss in a fine display.
Redskins Offensive Star : Alfred Morris - 80 rushing yards at 5 yards per carry was a good return from the rookie, unfortunately he was on his own.
Redskins Defensive Star : Reed Doughty - 13 tackles, 2 sacks, deflected a pass and hit the quarterback twice, it's all in a days work for Doughty.
Saturday, 5 January 2013
NFL PLAYOFFS - Sunday's Wildcard Games
Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Sunday's AFC wildcard game is similar to Saturday's as the wild card team come into it in better form. The Colts have won five of their last six games and the Ravens have only won one of their last five.
Indianapolis did finish with a better record than the Ravens this season but the Texans were even better and won the AFC South which meant the Colts had to rely on a wildcard. It has been a remarkable turnaround from the Colts after they finished last year as the worst team in the NFL. They got rid of a lot of their older players last year and brought in youngsters in an attempt to build for the future. I'm sure when they were building this team they would have set a target of a playoff place in two or three years time but they have managed to get their within a year and the future looks bright for the Colts and rookie quarterback, Andrew Luck.
The Colts were very good at home, winning seven games and they managed to finish .500 on the road to secure the number five seed in the AFC. The Colts had a decent record against playoff teams in the regular season, winning three of their five games. The one worry for the Colts is that all three wins came at home and their two defeats came on the road. The problem for the Colts is they hold the fifth seed so they will have to go on the road in the playoffs and will find it difficult.
The Colts were all about Andrew Luck. Everything good that they done, involved the rookie. Their passing game was ranked 7th in the NFL. They were in the bottom half in all the other statistics. Their running game was 22nd, their pass defense was 21st and their run defense was 29th. Andrew Luck didn't even get much help from his offensive line as they allowed 41 sacks which was the 10th worst record in the league. This resulted in turnovers and the Colts gave the ball away 27 times. The defense wasn't great either and they only managed to force 15 turnovers all year and sack the opponents quarterback 32 times.
The Ravens are in poor form and a few weeks ago they were in the race to earn a bye in the wildcard round but four defeats in five games has saw them drop to the AFC's fourth seed. The Ravens finished the season with a 10-6 record, which saw them win six at home and four on the road. Against playoff teams they have gone 2-3. Both of their wins came at home and they went 0-2 on the road.
This Ravens team hasn't been great all season and in my opinion they are underusing Ray Rice. Rice is an elite running-back but I don't think he got a big enough workload in the regular season. Having said that, the Ravens have made it to the playoffs without pushing him too hard and I expect him to be busy on Sunday. Rice is built to play playoff football and if the Ravens are to do well, they will have to give him as much of the ball as they can.
The Ravens biggest strength this year was taking care of the football. They turned the ball over on 16 occasions which is tied for the second best record in the league. The Ravens defense isn't as strong as it has been in recent seasons. They rank 17th against the pass and 20th against the run. They have produced 37 sacks this year which is 15th in the league. In recent years the Ravens have always had a tough defense but this particular unit isn't quite at the high level we are used to seeing from Ravens defenses.
Prediction - This will be a tight game between two sides who regardless of Sunday's results, I can't see progressing beyond the divisional round. I think these are the weakest sides in the AFC playoffs and would take any of the other four teams to beat them. The Colts are quite one dimensional and will throw the ball. They aren't great at protecting their quarterback but then again the Ravens haven't been known for their pass rush this year. My worry for the Colts is turnovers. Andrew Luck has thrown 18 interceptions this year and it is a massive problem for the Colts. I have gone on about teams taking care of the football all year and while I was looking at the statistics during the week I found a very interesting one. In both the AFC and the NFC, the five teams who have turned the ball over the least have reached the playoffs. That's five out of the six teams in each Conference which only underlines how important it is to take care of the football in the NFL. For those interested, the two teams who made the playoffs despite being outside the top five in this category were the Colts and the Vikings. If I was coaching the Ravens my game plan would be simple. Give the ball to Ray Rice and let him run all over the 29th run defense in the league. To this point John Harbaugh hasn't given Rice a huge workload but I think he will give him the ball in this game and it will lead to a Baltimore win.
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Washington Redskins (10-6)
The wildcard round finishes with a battle between two of the NFL's most exciting rookie quarterbacks. Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III have set the NFL alight this year with some spectacular plays and it seems fitting that they should face off for a place in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Seattle have reached this point with an 11-5 record and they have looked excellent in recent weeks, winning seven of their last eight games. Seattle were perfect at home, winning all eight games. They weren't as impressive on the road though and went 3-5. The Seahawks played against five playoff teams in the regular season and won four of the games, with their only loss coming in a tight game in San Francisco. Seattle's five defeats were all tight and their biggest loss was by seven points in that defeat to the 49ers.
Seattle look like a good old fashioned playoff team. They have the strong defense and the strong running game that used to be the criteria to win a Superbowl so it will be interesting to see how they get on in what has become a passing league. The Seahawks finished 3rd in rushing and their defense were 6th against the pass and 10th against the run. The passing game wasn't great and ranked 27th in the league but that was more to do with the play calling. Russell Wilson completed 64.1% of his passes and the Seahawks simply preferred to run the ball and the low rank is not a reflection on Wilson's play. Wilson ended the regular season with 26 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions which is a respectable ratio. The Seahawks also done well in relation to turnovers. The offense gave the ball away 18 times and the defense forced 31 turnovers, both of which were the 4th best records in the NFC.
The Redskins gave up a lot to trade up in the 2012 draft to take Robert Griffin III but he has repaid them with a playoff place and an NFC East title in his rookie season. RG3 is a special player and will surely go on to win multiple titles. He had a bit of a mixed start and although he was playing well, the Redskins weren't getting the results. They were 3-6 and looked to be heading towards another bad season but things clicked into place for them and they won their last seven games to finish 10-6 and take the divisional title. The Redskins faced four playoff teams this year, all at home. They split the four games, beating Minnesota and Baltimore but losing to Cincinnati and Atlanta.
The Redskins were all about the running game this year and rookie duo, RG3 and Alfred Morris led the team to an average of 169 yards per game on the ground. They also done better than any other team in the league in what I would describe as the most important statistic in football, turnovers. The Redskins turned the ball over just 14 times and that is a remarkable statistic for a team with a rookie quarterback. The Redskins defense were good at defending the run and ranked 5th in the league. They weren't so good at defending the pass though and ranked 30th. This was partially because they were unable to get a lot of pressure on the opposing quarterback. They picked up 32 sacks which was 23rd in the league. Their strength on defense was picking off the opposing quarterbacks and they had 21 interceptions.
Prediction - This game looks like being a cracker. Both offenses are a pleasure to watch and if nothing else at least we are guaranteed at least one more week of either RG3 or Wilson. Both sides will favour the run and both also have strong run defenses. Seattle seem to be trusting Wilson more and more as the season goes on and with receivers like Sidney Rice and Golden Tate on the field they can take advantage of a poor Washington pass defense. On paper, the Seahawks are the better team and I think they will get the win to keep their Superbowl dreams alive.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
AFC
Wildcard RoundHouston Texans over the Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens over the Indianapolis Colts
Divisional Round
Denver Broncos over the Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots over the Houston Texans
AFC Championship
Denver Broncos over the New England Patriots
NFC
Wildcard RoundGreen Bay Packers over the Minnesota Vikings
Seattle Seahawks over the Washington Redskins
Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks over the Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers over the San Francisco 49ers
NFC Championship
Green Bay Packers over the Seattle Seahawks
SUPERBOWL
Denver Broncos over the Green Bay Packers
NFL PLAYOFF CHALLENGE
This is your final chance to join the blog's private league in this year's NFL Playoff Challenge. Just click the following link.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
Sunday's AFC wildcard game is similar to Saturday's as the wild card team come into it in better form. The Colts have won five of their last six games and the Ravens have only won one of their last five.
Indianapolis did finish with a better record than the Ravens this season but the Texans were even better and won the AFC South which meant the Colts had to rely on a wildcard. It has been a remarkable turnaround from the Colts after they finished last year as the worst team in the NFL. They got rid of a lot of their older players last year and brought in youngsters in an attempt to build for the future. I'm sure when they were building this team they would have set a target of a playoff place in two or three years time but they have managed to get their within a year and the future looks bright for the Colts and rookie quarterback, Andrew Luck.
The Colts were very good at home, winning seven games and they managed to finish .500 on the road to secure the number five seed in the AFC. The Colts had a decent record against playoff teams in the regular season, winning three of their five games. The one worry for the Colts is that all three wins came at home and their two defeats came on the road. The problem for the Colts is they hold the fifth seed so they will have to go on the road in the playoffs and will find it difficult.
The Colts were all about Andrew Luck. Everything good that they done, involved the rookie. Their passing game was ranked 7th in the NFL. They were in the bottom half in all the other statistics. Their running game was 22nd, their pass defense was 21st and their run defense was 29th. Andrew Luck didn't even get much help from his offensive line as they allowed 41 sacks which was the 10th worst record in the league. This resulted in turnovers and the Colts gave the ball away 27 times. The defense wasn't great either and they only managed to force 15 turnovers all year and sack the opponents quarterback 32 times.
The Ravens are in poor form and a few weeks ago they were in the race to earn a bye in the wildcard round but four defeats in five games has saw them drop to the AFC's fourth seed. The Ravens finished the season with a 10-6 record, which saw them win six at home and four on the road. Against playoff teams they have gone 2-3. Both of their wins came at home and they went 0-2 on the road.
This Ravens team hasn't been great all season and in my opinion they are underusing Ray Rice. Rice is an elite running-back but I don't think he got a big enough workload in the regular season. Having said that, the Ravens have made it to the playoffs without pushing him too hard and I expect him to be busy on Sunday. Rice is built to play playoff football and if the Ravens are to do well, they will have to give him as much of the ball as they can.
The Ravens biggest strength this year was taking care of the football. They turned the ball over on 16 occasions which is tied for the second best record in the league. The Ravens defense isn't as strong as it has been in recent seasons. They rank 17th against the pass and 20th against the run. They have produced 37 sacks this year which is 15th in the league. In recent years the Ravens have always had a tough defense but this particular unit isn't quite at the high level we are used to seeing from Ravens defenses.
Prediction - This will be a tight game between two sides who regardless of Sunday's results, I can't see progressing beyond the divisional round. I think these are the weakest sides in the AFC playoffs and would take any of the other four teams to beat them. The Colts are quite one dimensional and will throw the ball. They aren't great at protecting their quarterback but then again the Ravens haven't been known for their pass rush this year. My worry for the Colts is turnovers. Andrew Luck has thrown 18 interceptions this year and it is a massive problem for the Colts. I have gone on about teams taking care of the football all year and while I was looking at the statistics during the week I found a very interesting one. In both the AFC and the NFC, the five teams who have turned the ball over the least have reached the playoffs. That's five out of the six teams in each Conference which only underlines how important it is to take care of the football in the NFL. For those interested, the two teams who made the playoffs despite being outside the top five in this category were the Colts and the Vikings. If I was coaching the Ravens my game plan would be simple. Give the ball to Ray Rice and let him run all over the 29th run defense in the league. To this point John Harbaugh hasn't given Rice a huge workload but I think he will give him the ball in this game and it will lead to a Baltimore win.
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Washington Redskins (10-6)
The wildcard round finishes with a battle between two of the NFL's most exciting rookie quarterbacks. Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III have set the NFL alight this year with some spectacular plays and it seems fitting that they should face off for a place in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Seattle have reached this point with an 11-5 record and they have looked excellent in recent weeks, winning seven of their last eight games. Seattle were perfect at home, winning all eight games. They weren't as impressive on the road though and went 3-5. The Seahawks played against five playoff teams in the regular season and won four of the games, with their only loss coming in a tight game in San Francisco. Seattle's five defeats were all tight and their biggest loss was by seven points in that defeat to the 49ers.
Seattle look like a good old fashioned playoff team. They have the strong defense and the strong running game that used to be the criteria to win a Superbowl so it will be interesting to see how they get on in what has become a passing league. The Seahawks finished 3rd in rushing and their defense were 6th against the pass and 10th against the run. The passing game wasn't great and ranked 27th in the league but that was more to do with the play calling. Russell Wilson completed 64.1% of his passes and the Seahawks simply preferred to run the ball and the low rank is not a reflection on Wilson's play. Wilson ended the regular season with 26 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions which is a respectable ratio. The Seahawks also done well in relation to turnovers. The offense gave the ball away 18 times and the defense forced 31 turnovers, both of which were the 4th best records in the NFC.
The Redskins gave up a lot to trade up in the 2012 draft to take Robert Griffin III but he has repaid them with a playoff place and an NFC East title in his rookie season. RG3 is a special player and will surely go on to win multiple titles. He had a bit of a mixed start and although he was playing well, the Redskins weren't getting the results. They were 3-6 and looked to be heading towards another bad season but things clicked into place for them and they won their last seven games to finish 10-6 and take the divisional title. The Redskins faced four playoff teams this year, all at home. They split the four games, beating Minnesota and Baltimore but losing to Cincinnati and Atlanta.
The Redskins were all about the running game this year and rookie duo, RG3 and Alfred Morris led the team to an average of 169 yards per game on the ground. They also done better than any other team in the league in what I would describe as the most important statistic in football, turnovers. The Redskins turned the ball over just 14 times and that is a remarkable statistic for a team with a rookie quarterback. The Redskins defense were good at defending the run and ranked 5th in the league. They weren't so good at defending the pass though and ranked 30th. This was partially because they were unable to get a lot of pressure on the opposing quarterback. They picked up 32 sacks which was 23rd in the league. Their strength on defense was picking off the opposing quarterbacks and they had 21 interceptions.
Prediction - This game looks like being a cracker. Both offenses are a pleasure to watch and if nothing else at least we are guaranteed at least one more week of either RG3 or Wilson. Both sides will favour the run and both also have strong run defenses. Seattle seem to be trusting Wilson more and more as the season goes on and with receivers like Sidney Rice and Golden Tate on the field they can take advantage of a poor Washington pass defense. On paper, the Seahawks are the better team and I think they will get the win to keep their Superbowl dreams alive.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
AFC
Wildcard RoundHouston Texans over the Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens over the Indianapolis Colts
Divisional Round
Denver Broncos over the Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots over the Houston Texans
AFC Championship
Denver Broncos over the New England Patriots
NFC
Wildcard RoundGreen Bay Packers over the Minnesota Vikings
Seattle Seahawks over the Washington Redskins
Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks over the Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers over the San Francisco 49ers
NFC Championship
Green Bay Packers over the Seattle Seahawks
SUPERBOWL
Denver Broncos over the Green Bay Packers
NFL PLAYOFF CHALLENGE
This is your final chance to join the blog's private league in this year's NFL Playoff Challenge. Just click the following link.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
Friday, 4 January 2013
NFL PLAYOFFS - Saturday's Wildcard Games
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) @ Houston Texans (12-4)
The NFL playoffs kick off on Saturday night with an AFC clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Houston Texans.
The Bengals are the AFC's sixth seed but they come into this game in better form than the Texans. Cincinnati have won seven of their last eight to reach the playoffs, including their last four on the road. Going on the road won't be a problem for this Bengals team as they have a better record than they do at home. They are 6-2 on the road and 4-4 at home. The Bengals faced four of their fellow playoff teams in the regular season and had a 2-2 record (1-1 home and 1-1 road).
As good as the Bengals were on offense, their defense is the main reason they are in the playoffs. They ranked 7th in pass defense and 12th against the run. They also sacked the opposition's quarterback 51 times (3rd most in the NFL) and forced 30 turnovers (2nd most in the AFC). The offense has built on the success of the defense, ranking 17th in passing and 18th in rushing. A key part to this game will be how the Bengals offensive line copes with the Texans pass rush. The Bengals have allowed 46 sacks this year which is 26th in the league. The Texans have sacked the opposing quarterback on 44 occasions and it something the Bengals will have to deal with.
Houston come into this game as the AFC's third seed but it's not something they will be proud of. The Texans led the AFC all year but three defeats in their last four games has saw them drop below Denver and New England, who now occupy the top two seeds and have the bye week that comes with it. The Texans have no time to feel sorry for themselves and have to sort the issues quick or their season will be over.
Houston started the season very well and looked like the best team in the league. However, the bye week seemed to kill off the momentum they had built up and although they still won more than they lost, the level of performance dropped around that time. Over the course of the season the Texans played seven of their playoff rivals, winning only three and losing four.
Statistically, the Texans had a good year. The offense was 11th in passing and 8th in rushing. The defense was 16th against the pass and 7th against the run. The defense sacked the opposing quarterback 44 times (5th in the NFL) and they managed to force 29 turnovers (3rd in the AFC). The offensive line done a good job this year and only allowed 28 sacks which was 7th best in the league. The offense done a good job of taking care of the football and only gave the ball away 17 times (3rd in AFC).
Prediction - This is a tough one to call. Both sides are good on defense and sacking the quarterback is a strong point for both of them. Houston look to be better at protecting their quarterback than the Bengals so they should have the edge in that area. Cincinnati's chances will rest heavily on the availability of running-back, BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He is questionable for the game and if he doesn't play it would mean the Bengals will be a one dimensional offense. The Texans also have the edge in the turnovers battle, having turned the balled over nine times less than the Bengals. Ultimately, my decision is do I go with the in-form team or the better team? If both teams bring their best game, the Texans will win. They haven't been in great form but this is the time of year when you win or you go home. With everything on the line, I think the Texans will get it done and set up a trip to New England next weekend.
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ Green Bay Packers (11-5)
These NFC North rivals face off for the second week in a row in the NFC's opening playoff game on Saturday night. Last week the Vikings were at home and they got the win they needed to secure a playoff place. Minnesota's win combined with the 49ers win meant the Packers dropped to the third seed in the NFC and set up this game between two big rivals.
Minnesota were 6-6 but won their last four to earn a playoff place. The Vikings got to the playoffs mostly because of a good home record where they won seven of their eight games. They didn't fare so well on their travels and they finished 3-5 on the road. In fairness to them, their five defeats were to four teams who reached the playoffs and the Bears who would have got there if the Vikings had lost any of those last four games. The Vikings final record against playoff teams was 3-4 although two of those wins were at home and as the sixth seed, the one thing I can guarantee is the Vikings won't host any playoff games.
The Vikings biggest asset this season was Adrian Peterson who got to within nine yards of beating the single season rushing record set by Eric Dickerson in 1984. There's every chance Peterson will break that record before the end of his career but if he doesn't and after his playing days are finished, he will no doubt be gutted at missing the record by such a small margin. Peterson already has his place in history as one of the greatest running-back's of all time but to break the record would have increased his legacy further.
Peterson aside, the Vikings statistics weren't overly impressive. Their passing game was 31st overall, the defense was 24th against the pass and the run defense was 11th. They forced just 22 turnovers (12th in the NFC) and turned the ball over themselves on 23 occasions (9th in the NFC). One of their strengths was the pass rush and they sacked the quarterback 44 times which was 5th in the league.
Green Bay finished the season 11-5 and won the NFC North. If they had won last week in Minnesota this game would be between the San Francisco 49ers and the Chicago Bears. However, the Packers lost and it allowed the San Francisco 49ers to pass them and earn a bye as the NFC's two seed. The Packers are in reasonable form, having won four in a row prior to last week's defeat. Like the Vikings they had a good home record and also won seven of their eight home games. The difference between the sides was the Packers picked up an extra win on the road to finish 4-4. The Packers didn't have a great record against teams who reached the playoffs, winning just two of their six games.
This Packers side relies a lot on Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. Rodgers is a fantastic quarterback and when he is on song, he is the best in the league. The one problem he has had this year is getting protection from his offensive line. The Packers have allowed 51 sacks and only the Arizona Cardinals have allowed more. Their defense have been doing their best to counteract this and have managed to pick up 47 sacks which is 4th best in the NFL. One thing the Packers have been very good at is taking care of the football. They have turned the ball over on just 16 occasions this season which is tied for second best in the league.
Prediction - The Packers are the better side here but they two issues. They need to stop Adrian Peterson and they need to keep Aaron Rodgers on his feet. In the two games this year with the Vikings they haven't done a great job of either. Adrian Peterson has ran for a total of 409 yards, two touchdowns and he also caught a touchdown pass in the week 17 game. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked a total of 7 times in the two games and the Packers can't afford that number to increase much higher. These two sides have a clear identity and it just happens that both teams preference on offense, is the other teams weakness on defense. The Vikings have the 2nd ranked running game in the league and they will go up against a Packers run defense that ranked 17th. The Packers will look to pass the ball and their passing game ranked 9th in the regular season. The Vikings pass defense was 24th in the NFL so they will struggle to cope with Aaron Rodgers if he finds his form. Generally teams will give a little bit more in the playoffs and if both teams play to their potential, which I think they will, then the Packers will win this one.
NFL Playoff Challenge
It is not too late to join my league on nfl.com. The NFL Playoff Challenge is a great game and fun to play. If you already have a team, just click the link at the end of this paragraph to enter. If you haven't already set up a team, I would encourage you to do so.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
The NFL playoffs kick off on Saturday night with an AFC clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Houston Texans.
The Bengals are the AFC's sixth seed but they come into this game in better form than the Texans. Cincinnati have won seven of their last eight to reach the playoffs, including their last four on the road. Going on the road won't be a problem for this Bengals team as they have a better record than they do at home. They are 6-2 on the road and 4-4 at home. The Bengals faced four of their fellow playoff teams in the regular season and had a 2-2 record (1-1 home and 1-1 road).
As good as the Bengals were on offense, their defense is the main reason they are in the playoffs. They ranked 7th in pass defense and 12th against the run. They also sacked the opposition's quarterback 51 times (3rd most in the NFL) and forced 30 turnovers (2nd most in the AFC). The offense has built on the success of the defense, ranking 17th in passing and 18th in rushing. A key part to this game will be how the Bengals offensive line copes with the Texans pass rush. The Bengals have allowed 46 sacks this year which is 26th in the league. The Texans have sacked the opposing quarterback on 44 occasions and it something the Bengals will have to deal with.
Houston come into this game as the AFC's third seed but it's not something they will be proud of. The Texans led the AFC all year but three defeats in their last four games has saw them drop below Denver and New England, who now occupy the top two seeds and have the bye week that comes with it. The Texans have no time to feel sorry for themselves and have to sort the issues quick or their season will be over.
Houston started the season very well and looked like the best team in the league. However, the bye week seemed to kill off the momentum they had built up and although they still won more than they lost, the level of performance dropped around that time. Over the course of the season the Texans played seven of their playoff rivals, winning only three and losing four.
Statistically, the Texans had a good year. The offense was 11th in passing and 8th in rushing. The defense was 16th against the pass and 7th against the run. The defense sacked the opposing quarterback 44 times (5th in the NFL) and they managed to force 29 turnovers (3rd in the AFC). The offensive line done a good job this year and only allowed 28 sacks which was 7th best in the league. The offense done a good job of taking care of the football and only gave the ball away 17 times (3rd in AFC).
Prediction - This is a tough one to call. Both sides are good on defense and sacking the quarterback is a strong point for both of them. Houston look to be better at protecting their quarterback than the Bengals so they should have the edge in that area. Cincinnati's chances will rest heavily on the availability of running-back, BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He is questionable for the game and if he doesn't play it would mean the Bengals will be a one dimensional offense. The Texans also have the edge in the turnovers battle, having turned the balled over nine times less than the Bengals. Ultimately, my decision is do I go with the in-form team or the better team? If both teams bring their best game, the Texans will win. They haven't been in great form but this is the time of year when you win or you go home. With everything on the line, I think the Texans will get it done and set up a trip to New England next weekend.
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ Green Bay Packers (11-5)
These NFC North rivals face off for the second week in a row in the NFC's opening playoff game on Saturday night. Last week the Vikings were at home and they got the win they needed to secure a playoff place. Minnesota's win combined with the 49ers win meant the Packers dropped to the third seed in the NFC and set up this game between two big rivals.
Minnesota were 6-6 but won their last four to earn a playoff place. The Vikings got to the playoffs mostly because of a good home record where they won seven of their eight games. They didn't fare so well on their travels and they finished 3-5 on the road. In fairness to them, their five defeats were to four teams who reached the playoffs and the Bears who would have got there if the Vikings had lost any of those last four games. The Vikings final record against playoff teams was 3-4 although two of those wins were at home and as the sixth seed, the one thing I can guarantee is the Vikings won't host any playoff games.
The Vikings biggest asset this season was Adrian Peterson who got to within nine yards of beating the single season rushing record set by Eric Dickerson in 1984. There's every chance Peterson will break that record before the end of his career but if he doesn't and after his playing days are finished, he will no doubt be gutted at missing the record by such a small margin. Peterson already has his place in history as one of the greatest running-back's of all time but to break the record would have increased his legacy further.
Peterson aside, the Vikings statistics weren't overly impressive. Their passing game was 31st overall, the defense was 24th against the pass and the run defense was 11th. They forced just 22 turnovers (12th in the NFC) and turned the ball over themselves on 23 occasions (9th in the NFC). One of their strengths was the pass rush and they sacked the quarterback 44 times which was 5th in the league.
Green Bay finished the season 11-5 and won the NFC North. If they had won last week in Minnesota this game would be between the San Francisco 49ers and the Chicago Bears. However, the Packers lost and it allowed the San Francisco 49ers to pass them and earn a bye as the NFC's two seed. The Packers are in reasonable form, having won four in a row prior to last week's defeat. Like the Vikings they had a good home record and also won seven of their eight home games. The difference between the sides was the Packers picked up an extra win on the road to finish 4-4. The Packers didn't have a great record against teams who reached the playoffs, winning just two of their six games.
This Packers side relies a lot on Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. Rodgers is a fantastic quarterback and when he is on song, he is the best in the league. The one problem he has had this year is getting protection from his offensive line. The Packers have allowed 51 sacks and only the Arizona Cardinals have allowed more. Their defense have been doing their best to counteract this and have managed to pick up 47 sacks which is 4th best in the NFL. One thing the Packers have been very good at is taking care of the football. They have turned the ball over on just 16 occasions this season which is tied for second best in the league.
Prediction - The Packers are the better side here but they two issues. They need to stop Adrian Peterson and they need to keep Aaron Rodgers on his feet. In the two games this year with the Vikings they haven't done a great job of either. Adrian Peterson has ran for a total of 409 yards, two touchdowns and he also caught a touchdown pass in the week 17 game. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked a total of 7 times in the two games and the Packers can't afford that number to increase much higher. These two sides have a clear identity and it just happens that both teams preference on offense, is the other teams weakness on defense. The Vikings have the 2nd ranked running game in the league and they will go up against a Packers run defense that ranked 17th. The Packers will look to pass the ball and their passing game ranked 9th in the regular season. The Vikings pass defense was 24th in the NFL so they will struggle to cope with Aaron Rodgers if he finds his form. Generally teams will give a little bit more in the playoffs and if both teams play to their potential, which I think they will, then the Packers will win this one.
NFL Playoff Challenge
It is not too late to join my league on nfl.com. The NFL Playoff Challenge is a great game and fun to play. If you already have a team, just click the link at the end of this paragraph to enter. If you haven't already set up a team, I would encourage you to do so.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
Saturday, 22 December 2012
Atlanta Falcons (12-2) @ Detroit Lions (4-10)
At the start of the season in my NFL Preview (http://gjsportsblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/nfl-2012-season-preview.html) I predicted these two would be playoff teams. I'm happy with my prediction for the Falcons as most people were taking the Saints in the NFC South but I went with Atlanta and they have done the job. Unfortunately, I was way off with the Detroit Lions. I projected a 12-4 season for the Lions and a wildcard place. I was miles off and they will be closer to a 4-12 finish than 12-4.
Atlanta have had a good year and a win here would secure the NFC's number one seed which would mean someone would have to come to Atlanta and beat them or the Falcons will be in the Superbowl. They are 7-0 at home this season, so they won't be beaten easily. A lot of doubters will say that Matt Ryan has never won in the playoffs which is true but when you look at it, the record isn't as bad as it sounds. In his first year in the NFL, Ryan guided the Falcons to a playoff place and lost to the Arizona Cardinals who went on to narrowly lose in the Superbowl. That's not bad for a rookie. They missed the playoffs the following year with a 9-7 record. The next year they won the NFC South with a 13-3 record and opened their playoff campaign against the Green Bay Packers. In that game, Aaron Rodgers played one of the best games I have ever saw and the Falcons lost to a Packers side who went onto win the Superbowl. Last year, the Falcons reached the playoffs again with a 10-6 record and went to New York in the wildcard round and suffered a heavy defeat to the Giants. That same Giants team went onto win the Superbowl. The fact that most people want to talk about is that Matt Ryan is 0-3 in the playoffs but when it's looked at further, he is actually 0-3 against the teams who went on to represent the NFC in that years Superbowl, two of which won the whole thing. That is more about bad luck than a bad quarterback.
This year's Falcons have a very strong passing game. Matt Ryan is a very good quarterback and with targets like Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez his job is made easy for him. White and Jones have already passed 1000 receiving yards for the season and Gonzalez needs 120 yards from the last two games to pass 1000 yards for the fifth time in his career and for the first time as a Falcon. The running game isn't great but it's doing enough to keep defenses honest which creates space for their trio of receivers to exploit. On defense, they are giving up a lot of yards. They are giving up an average of over 350 yards per game which is 19th in the league. However, they are making up for that by keeping teams out of the end zone. They are conceding an average of 18.5 points per game which is the 4th best record in the NFL. If the Falcons can carry those sort of numbers on defense into the playoffs, they will have every chance of being in the Superbowl as their offense is capable of troubling any team in the league.
The Lions have been the most disappointing team in the league this season. They finally ended their long slump by reaching the playoffs for the first time since 1999 but they have not built on that success. They have a lot of very good players but it just hasn't worked out for them this season. Matthew Stafford is a good quarterback. His numbers last year were excellent. He threw for over 5000 yards, 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. This year he has 4252 yards and could very well end the year with another 5000 yard season. His interception numbers are similar as he is currently on 15 interceptions for the year. The one big difference is touchdown passes. He has only got 17 touchdowns this year which is way below his record last year. With two games remaining he is 24 touchdown passes behind his record from last year. That is a massive difference and it is without doubt the reason why the Lions are heading for an early draft pick instead of the playoffs.
The big plus for the Lions has been the form of superstar receiver, Calvin "Megatron" Johnson. Megatron has emphatically dismissed the "Madden Curse" and is just 182 yards away from breaking the record for most receiving yards in a regular season. The record has stood for 17 years and is currently held by Jerry Rice who had 1848 receiving yards in 1995. I expect Megatron to break that record and there's every chance it might even happen tonight.
The match ups in this game are quite tight. Both sides will look to pass the ball. The Lions are 1st in passing and the Falcons are 5th. On defense, the Lions are 11th against the pass and the Falcons are 17th. Neither side are particularly good on the ground. The Lions are 23rd and the Falcons are 28th. On defense the Lions are 18th against the run and the Falcons are 24th.
Prediction - If this game was between two 8-6 teams who were chasing a playoff place, I would take the Detroit Lions based on the match ups. However, with the records as they are, I have to side with the Atlanta Falcons as they need this one to secure the NFC's number one seed.
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