Seattle Seahawks (12-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
Seattle and Atlanta start Sunday's divisional round match ups and it looks like being another fantastic day. Seattle earned their place here courtesy of a win over the Washington Redskins last week. The Seahawks got off to a slow start but they came back into it thanks to a great performance from their defense and their running game.
Unfortunately for the Seahawks that win came at a price. Defensive end, Chris Clemons picked up an injury that has ruled him out. Clemons absence will be a huge void to fill for the Seahawks. He leads the team in sacks (11.5) and this game was always going to come down to how much time Matt Ryan was going to get in the pocket. With Clemons now ruled out the momentum has took a huge swing in Atlanta's favour.
One advantage the Seahawks do have is Russell Wilson. He's a mobile quarterback, who although not as big as Cam Newton, is similar in that he will try to carry the ball down the field himself. The Falcons struggled with Newton during the regular season. Newton's best rushing games both came against the Falcons. If Wilson can get out of the pocket, he can take the ball down the field and as I see it, it's Seattle's best weapon.
Atlanta will look to put the game in the hands of their quarterback, Matt Ryan. Ryan has put up career numbers in the regular season, beating his previous best in yards, touchdowns and pass completion percentage. Ryan has a little extra pressure on him as he has never won a playoff game but as I've already said that statistic is a little bit flawed. All three teams he has played against in the playoffs have went to the Superbowl and two of the three have won the big one. He hasn't had much luck with his opponents and instead of concentrating on how many times Ryan has lost in the playoffs should we not be giving him a little bit of credit. Not many quarterbacks who have been in the NFL for five seasons are about to play in the playoffs for the fourth year. He's obviously doing something right and it's only a matter of time before he gets that first win.
The Falcons game plan will have changed with the injury to Chris Clemons. When they knew they were facing either the Seahawks or the Redskins they would have been looking for weaknesses to exploit. Prior to the injury the Falcons would have been looking to get the ball out quick but they won't face as strong a pass rush now which will open the field up for Julio Jones and Roddy White. If Ryan can get into his stride early he can find those two and they could lead him to that elusive first playoff win.
A look at the match ups would suggest that the Seahawks have a chance here. They were 3rd in running the ball and their defense was also strong, ranking 6th against the pass and 10th against the run. Their passing game was poor, ranking just 27th but they were 32nd for a long time and as the weeks have gone by they have trusted Wilson more and he hasn't let them down. The Falcons ranked 6th in passing and 29th in rushing. Their defense was 23rd against the pass and 21st against the run. The Falcons didn't do a great job of sacking the opponent's quarterback, picking up just 29 sacks (28th in the NFL) and I can't see that improving today. They will be more than happy to stop Wilson getting first downs rather than getting to him behind the line of scrimmage. The Falcons have done a decent job of protecting Ryan, allowing just 28 sacks.
Prediction - With Clemons, I would have gone for Seattle but momentum has swung far enough for me to change my mind and go with Matt Ryan getting his first playoff win.
Houston Texans (13-4) @ New England Patriots (12-4)
The divisional round ends in New England with a potentially great match up. This game should really be in Houston but the Texans collapsed in the regular season, losing three of their last four games. Prior to that, the Texans looked certain to be the AFC's top seed but the loss of form cost them and meant they had to host the Cincinnati Bengals in last week's wildcard round. The Texans got the win in that one but it was far from impressive and they will need to improve a lot if they are to beat the Patriots.
The Patriots are an interesting prospect this season. They have always had a good passing game but their running game and run defense are good this year too. In recent years the Patriots have been quite one dimensional, although their passing game was good enough to get them to a Superbowl last year but this year they can let their running game take some extra responsibility and their defense is also a bit better. They are still not great defending the pass but after last night's results they now only have to defend Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco for a trip to another Superbowl. Neither of those two are known for their passing and both have strong running-backs to help them out.
Another big strength for the Patriots is turnovers. They have turned the ball over just 16 times and their defense has forced 41 turnovers. They have also done a good job of protecting Tom Brady and have allowed him to be sacked just 27 times. The Texans are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to sacks though so it will be one of the key battles where the game will be won and lost. The Patriots come into the game in good form, having won nine of their last ten games. They picked up a big win over the Texans in week 14 and Houston will have their hands full if they want to spring a surprise.
The Texans have had a good year statistically. Their passing game was 11th, running game was 8th, pass defense was 16th and run defense was 7th. They also sacked the opponents quarterback 44 times which ranked 5th in the NFL and they only allowed their quarterback to be sacked 28 times which was 7th best in the league. They forced 29 turnovers and gave the ball away 17 times. Based on that the Texans are one of the best teams in the league but the problem I have is they have slowed down a lot in recent weeks and in my opinion they peaked too early.
There is a few question marks over how healthy the Patriots are heading into this one. A lot of their key players have been listed on injury reports this week and it remains to be seen what sort of condition they are in. I wouldn't be totally surprised if all the injured players took to the field tonight and that this was simply the latest in a long line of mind games from Bill Belichick.
Prediction - This should be a tight game but on current form I have to go with the home team, Patriots win.
Showing posts with label Playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Playoffs. Show all posts
Sunday, 13 January 2013
Saturday, 12 January 2013
Saturday's Divisional Round Games
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) @ Denver Broncos (13-3)
Baltimore travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in the AFC's divisional round opener. The Broncos have the number one seed and home advantage right to the Superbowl. They have earned that with eleven consecutive victories to finish 13-3 for the season. They were in the playoffs last year and got to this same stage but they made a franchise changing signing by bringing in Peyton Manning and look better for it. At the time it was seen as a gamble as Manning was coming back from several neck surgeries and many experts had written him off. A slow start only increased the pressure on him but it doesn't seem to matter to Manning. He began to find his form after a few games and ended up having one of the best seasons of his career. This year will mean a lot to Manning as I'm sure there would have been doubts in his own mind when he was struggling with injury and what could be a better end to a great season than to win a Superbowl in the city he was born in and where his father spent the bulk of his career. It would be the perfect end to a fantastic year for the Broncos quarterback.
The Ravens have their own romantic story. Legendary linebacker, Ray Lewis has confirmed that this will be his last season in the NFL and how fitting would it be if he ended it with a ring in Superbowl XLVII. He has already played his last game in Baltimore which was an emotional occasion and that emotion will carry over each week now as every time he takes to the field, he knows it could potentially be his last game. Lewis has had a great career which has saw him win a Superbowl, Superbowl MVP, Defensive Player of the Year (twice), voted into the Pro Bowl thirteen times and named as an All-Pro seven times. Those are the numbers of a Hall of Famer and there can be no doubt that regardless of how this year ends, Lewis is worthy of a place in the hall.
Last week the Ravens picked up a win over the Indianapolis Colts but they didn't have it all their own way. The Colts completed dominated possession and had the ball for over 37 minutes but were unable to finish off their drives. If Baltimore are going to have any chance, they need to restrict Peyton Manning's time on the field as much as they possibly can. If Manning gets the ball for 37 minutes, you can be sure he wouldn't waste the opportunity and would put at least 40 points on the board. The Ravens need to keep the clock moving, which means plenty of running plays, plenty of short passes and if they can do that, then they can give themselves a chance.
The problem the Ravens have is the Broncos have got one of the best defenses in the league. They ranked 3rd in the regular season in both pass defense and run defense, giving up an average of just 290.7 yards per game which was the second best record in the NFL. They gave up just 18.1 points per game which was 4th and they sacked the opponents quarterback 52 times which was the best in the league. That's a great return and with a defense as mean as that, you are halfway to having a good shot at a title. The other half required is a good offense and Denver are right up there in that category too. They are averaging just under 400 yards a game which is fourth in the league and they are scoring 30.1 points per game which is second in the NFL, behind the New England Patriots. A big reason for that success is the protection they have been giving Peyton Manning. They have allowed just 21 sacks this season which is the second best record in the league. When any quarterback gets protection like that, he will hurt the opposition but when you have an elite quarterback like Manning getting that sort of protection, that's the stuff Superbowl's are made of.
When I look at the match ups, it doesn't look good for the Ravens. The only place they have an edge is turnovers. The Ravens have done a good job of taking care of the football, turning it over just 16 times in the regular season. The Broncos defense's one weakness is they have only forced 24 turnovers but when you're sacking the quarterback as much as they do, he doesn't get to throw many interceptions. Denver have turned the ball over 25 times and the Ravens defense forced 25 in the regular season. The problem is, I can't see them getting enough pressure on Manning to force him into the mistakes they need him to make.
Prediction - I really fancy the Broncos for the Superbowl and can't see the Ravens giving them too much trouble.
Green Bay Packers (12-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
This is the game I am looking forward to the most this weekend. It should be an absolute cracker between two strong sides. They met in Green Bay in the opening weekend of the season and on that occasion the 49ers came out on top. A lot has changed since then though and for me the Packers have improved and the 49ers have weakened.
Green Bay got here courtesy of a comfortable win over the Minnesota Vikings in last week's wildcard round. They done a decent job of restricting Adrian Peterson to 99 yards and Joe Webb had a terrible day, completing just over a third of his passes. The Packers were solid without ever really being exceptional but they done enough to beat a misfiring Vikings. Aaron Rodgers completed 23 of 33 passes for 274 yards and a touchdown. The Packers are almost back at full strength now and will be a match for anyone in the NFC as long as they can get their best players on the field.
The 49ers have been at the centre of a lot of controversy as a result of changing their quarterback half way through the season. Colin Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith after Smith got injured against the Rams in week 10. I've made it clear in the past that I don't think it was the right move and had many a debate with NFL fans about it but I will stand by my comments and say that I believe Alex Smith was the best option for the 49ers this year. The 49ers system requires a quarterback who is required to make short, accurate passes and that job is done better by Alex Smith. They both attempted 218 passes this year with Smith completing 153 compared to Kaepernick's 136. Smith had more touchdowns and ended the season with a higher QB rating. There can be no doubt that Kaepernick brings more in the ground game but there has been a drop in Frank Gore's numbers since Kaepernick came in and I can't believe that anyone would want Kaepernick carrying the ball down the field instead of Gore.
The match ups are quite intriguing as well. The 49ers have a very strong defense and ranked 4th in both pass defense and run defense. More interesting though is the fact that they weren't particularly impressive in sacks or turnovers. Most top defenses are very good at one or the other but the 49ers are mid table in both. They are giving up 294 yards per game which is excellent and ranks 3rd in the NFL. They are 4th in rushing but the passing game hasn't been great and ranked 23rd in the regular season. A big part of this game hangs on the 49ers defense getting to Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been sacked a lot this year but the 49ers haven't been great in getting to the quarterback. The 49ers defense have 38 sacks this year and when you consider Aldon Smith got 19.5 on his own, the numbers aren't that great. Aldon Smith's productivity has dropped in recent weeks since Justin Smith's injury and with the news that both are only listed as probable for this game I would worry about what Aaron Rodgers could do to the 49ers.
Green Bay will play their usual game. They will primarily look to pass the ball and will only run it to keep the defense honest. They ran the ball a lot more last week but that was more to do with how the game was playing out. Over the season the Packers have attempted to pass on over 56% of their plays but I would expect that figure to be a bit higher tomorrow night.
Prediction - This game will be decided on who wins the battle between the Packers offensive line and the 49ers defensive line. If the Packers win that battle, they will win this game easily. If it's an even battle, the Packers will win in a tight win. I'm going to put my faith in Aaron Rodgers finding a way of getting it done and sending Green Bay to the NFC title game.
Baltimore travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in the AFC's divisional round opener. The Broncos have the number one seed and home advantage right to the Superbowl. They have earned that with eleven consecutive victories to finish 13-3 for the season. They were in the playoffs last year and got to this same stage but they made a franchise changing signing by bringing in Peyton Manning and look better for it. At the time it was seen as a gamble as Manning was coming back from several neck surgeries and many experts had written him off. A slow start only increased the pressure on him but it doesn't seem to matter to Manning. He began to find his form after a few games and ended up having one of the best seasons of his career. This year will mean a lot to Manning as I'm sure there would have been doubts in his own mind when he was struggling with injury and what could be a better end to a great season than to win a Superbowl in the city he was born in and where his father spent the bulk of his career. It would be the perfect end to a fantastic year for the Broncos quarterback.
The Ravens have their own romantic story. Legendary linebacker, Ray Lewis has confirmed that this will be his last season in the NFL and how fitting would it be if he ended it with a ring in Superbowl XLVII. He has already played his last game in Baltimore which was an emotional occasion and that emotion will carry over each week now as every time he takes to the field, he knows it could potentially be his last game. Lewis has had a great career which has saw him win a Superbowl, Superbowl MVP, Defensive Player of the Year (twice), voted into the Pro Bowl thirteen times and named as an All-Pro seven times. Those are the numbers of a Hall of Famer and there can be no doubt that regardless of how this year ends, Lewis is worthy of a place in the hall.
Last week the Ravens picked up a win over the Indianapolis Colts but they didn't have it all their own way. The Colts completed dominated possession and had the ball for over 37 minutes but were unable to finish off their drives. If Baltimore are going to have any chance, they need to restrict Peyton Manning's time on the field as much as they possibly can. If Manning gets the ball for 37 minutes, you can be sure he wouldn't waste the opportunity and would put at least 40 points on the board. The Ravens need to keep the clock moving, which means plenty of running plays, plenty of short passes and if they can do that, then they can give themselves a chance.
The problem the Ravens have is the Broncos have got one of the best defenses in the league. They ranked 3rd in the regular season in both pass defense and run defense, giving up an average of just 290.7 yards per game which was the second best record in the NFL. They gave up just 18.1 points per game which was 4th and they sacked the opponents quarterback 52 times which was the best in the league. That's a great return and with a defense as mean as that, you are halfway to having a good shot at a title. The other half required is a good offense and Denver are right up there in that category too. They are averaging just under 400 yards a game which is fourth in the league and they are scoring 30.1 points per game which is second in the NFL, behind the New England Patriots. A big reason for that success is the protection they have been giving Peyton Manning. They have allowed just 21 sacks this season which is the second best record in the league. When any quarterback gets protection like that, he will hurt the opposition but when you have an elite quarterback like Manning getting that sort of protection, that's the stuff Superbowl's are made of.
When I look at the match ups, it doesn't look good for the Ravens. The only place they have an edge is turnovers. The Ravens have done a good job of taking care of the football, turning it over just 16 times in the regular season. The Broncos defense's one weakness is they have only forced 24 turnovers but when you're sacking the quarterback as much as they do, he doesn't get to throw many interceptions. Denver have turned the ball over 25 times and the Ravens defense forced 25 in the regular season. The problem is, I can't see them getting enough pressure on Manning to force him into the mistakes they need him to make.
Prediction - I really fancy the Broncos for the Superbowl and can't see the Ravens giving them too much trouble.
Green Bay Packers (12-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
This is the game I am looking forward to the most this weekend. It should be an absolute cracker between two strong sides. They met in Green Bay in the opening weekend of the season and on that occasion the 49ers came out on top. A lot has changed since then though and for me the Packers have improved and the 49ers have weakened.
Green Bay got here courtesy of a comfortable win over the Minnesota Vikings in last week's wildcard round. They done a decent job of restricting Adrian Peterson to 99 yards and Joe Webb had a terrible day, completing just over a third of his passes. The Packers were solid without ever really being exceptional but they done enough to beat a misfiring Vikings. Aaron Rodgers completed 23 of 33 passes for 274 yards and a touchdown. The Packers are almost back at full strength now and will be a match for anyone in the NFC as long as they can get their best players on the field.
The 49ers have been at the centre of a lot of controversy as a result of changing their quarterback half way through the season. Colin Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith after Smith got injured against the Rams in week 10. I've made it clear in the past that I don't think it was the right move and had many a debate with NFL fans about it but I will stand by my comments and say that I believe Alex Smith was the best option for the 49ers this year. The 49ers system requires a quarterback who is required to make short, accurate passes and that job is done better by Alex Smith. They both attempted 218 passes this year with Smith completing 153 compared to Kaepernick's 136. Smith had more touchdowns and ended the season with a higher QB rating. There can be no doubt that Kaepernick brings more in the ground game but there has been a drop in Frank Gore's numbers since Kaepernick came in and I can't believe that anyone would want Kaepernick carrying the ball down the field instead of Gore.
The match ups are quite intriguing as well. The 49ers have a very strong defense and ranked 4th in both pass defense and run defense. More interesting though is the fact that they weren't particularly impressive in sacks or turnovers. Most top defenses are very good at one or the other but the 49ers are mid table in both. They are giving up 294 yards per game which is excellent and ranks 3rd in the NFL. They are 4th in rushing but the passing game hasn't been great and ranked 23rd in the regular season. A big part of this game hangs on the 49ers defense getting to Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been sacked a lot this year but the 49ers haven't been great in getting to the quarterback. The 49ers defense have 38 sacks this year and when you consider Aldon Smith got 19.5 on his own, the numbers aren't that great. Aldon Smith's productivity has dropped in recent weeks since Justin Smith's injury and with the news that both are only listed as probable for this game I would worry about what Aaron Rodgers could do to the 49ers.
Green Bay will play their usual game. They will primarily look to pass the ball and will only run it to keep the defense honest. They ran the ball a lot more last week but that was more to do with how the game was playing out. Over the season the Packers have attempted to pass on over 56% of their plays but I would expect that figure to be a bit higher tomorrow night.
Prediction - This game will be decided on who wins the battle between the Packers offensive line and the 49ers defensive line. If the Packers win that battle, they will win this game easily. If it's an even battle, the Packers will win in a tight win. I'm going to put my faith in Aaron Rodgers finding a way of getting it done and sending Green Bay to the NFC title game.
Wednesday, 2 January 2013
GJ Sports Blog - 2012 NFL Regular Season Results
NFL PREDICTIONS - RESULTS
For the regular readers of my blog, you will know I posted predictions in my preview's. Here is the complete list of results on a weekly basis.
Week 1 - 13-3
Week 2 - 11-5
Week 3 - 5-11
Week 4 - 11-4
Week 5 - 10-4
Week 6 - 8-6
Week 7 - 9-4
Week 8 - 7-7
Week 9 - 12-1 (Forgot to predict Thursday Night Football)
Week 10 - 11-3
Week 11 - 7-7
Week 12 - 10-6
Week 13 - 10-6
Week 14 - 11-5
Week 15 - 7-9
Week 16 - 13-3
Week 17 - 11-5
Total = 166-89 (forgot one game)
Percentage = 0.651
Overall, I think I could have done better but just under two thirds isn't a bad record and I now have a target to aim for next season.
As well as the weekly game by game predictions I also done a preview before the start of the season were I predicted each teams record for the year. The full article can be found here:
http://gjsportsblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/nfl-2012-season-preview.html
Below is a summary of how I got on.
Exactly correct - 2 (Buccaneers, Titans)
One win away - 4 (Bears, Cardinals, Jets, Raiders)
Two wins away - 8 (Packers, Giants, Cowboys, Falcons, Saints, Ravens, Browns, Jaguars)
Two and a half wins away - 2 (49ers, Rams)
Three Wins Away - 5 (Panthers, Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, Chargers)
Four Wins Away - 4 (Steelers, Bengals, Texans, Colts)
Five Wins Away - 2 (Broncos, Chiefs)
Six Wins Away - 3 (Eagles, Redskins, Seahawks)
Seven Wins Away - 1 (Vikings)
Eight Wins Away - 1 (Lions)
Again I'm not really sure how good or bad that is as I have nothing to compare it to but I will try to better it next season.
The one thing I do have something to compare is the teams I picked to qualify for the playoffs and my Superbowl prediction. I saved the predictions of five writers from a well known Football website and have compared my result with theirs.
I managed to pick out six (Packers, Falcons, 49ers, Patriots, Texans, Ravens) of the twelve playoff teams. Of the six I got wrong (Steelers, Chargers, Bills, Giants, Lions, Bears), only three of them got close (Steelers, Giants, Bears). The other three I was miles off with.
The six teams I did not predict to reach the playoffs were Seattle, Washington, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Denver. For four of those teams I overestimated how quickly things can turn around in the NFL. The Colts and the Redskins both got there with rookie quarterbacks who I highly rated but I just didn't think they would turn things around so quickly.
The Seahawks also got there with a rookie quarterback. I had read a lot about Russell Wilson in preseason about how great this kid was, mostly Bill Simmons, so I watched him in the first few games and to be honest I wasn't impressed. I remember in previous years about Eagles fans getting excited about Mike Kafka in preseason games and I had Wilson filed in the same bracket. It took him a few games to get settled but slowly his performances have improved and he has worked his way right up to the rookie of the year conversation.
The other team I overestimated was the Cincinnati Bengals. They made the playoffs last year but I expected the Steelers and Ravens to be a little bit ahead of them and I expected it would be another year on the learning curve for Andy Dalton and AJ Green. However, those two have stepped it up on offense along with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and with the defense also having a good year the Bengals managed to pick up the AFC's sixth seed.
The one team of the six who I would have given no chance to would have been the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings were poor last year and with Adrian Peterson coming off serious knee surgery I had them wrote off this year. I wasn't impressed with Christian Ponder in his rookie season either but he has shown a lot of improvement this year. His accuarcy has increased by 7.8% and he has thrown less interceptions in more games. He's far from perfect but if he can keep increasing those numbers, he may well turn out to be a decent quarterback for the Vikings. The biggest surprise though was Adrian Peterson. People just don't suffer career threatening injuries and then get to within 9 yards of breaking the single season rushing record. His performances have been exceptional and I am delighted to see him back in the playoffs where he belongs.
The final team I missed out is the worst and most embarrassing mistake I have made in my blogs this season. There's one thing any NFL fan, blogger, journalist, pundit should not do and I made a rookie mistake by doing it. I wrote off a Manning!!! Nobody should ever do that. I knew it then and I done it anyway. These guys seem to save their best for when people are writing them off. I am convinced that the reason the Giants didn't make the playoffs this year is because nobody was writing off Eli after his excellent performances last year when he won his second Superbowl. No doubt people will write him off this off season and he'll come back and lead the Giants on a deep playoff run.
As I said, I wrote off Peyton Manning. He had some pretty serious surgery last year and I just didn't think he was going to be the same guy but he has lost nothing and will be right up there when this years MVP is decided. Right now, I'd put him behind Adrian Peterson in that race but I've learned my lesson and I am certainly not going to rule him out.
The final prediction I made was my Superbowl pick. At the start of the season, I predicted the 49ers would beat the Patriots which I am happy to say is still a possibility. My thoughts have changed to be honest but at least I still have the chance of being correct.
In comparison to the five writers I compared myself against, I haven't done great. Of the other five, one predicted eight teams correctly, two predicted seven correctly and the other two predicted six correctly. I never beat any of them but at least I done as well as two of them.
In the Superbowl predictions, I am still in contention to be correct along with four of the five writers. The one who is already wrong predicted a repeat of last year's Superbowl with the Giants once again beating the Patriots.
My predictions aren't done for the season and I will continue to do my previews and predictions for every playoff game, including the Superbowl. I will also complete a playoff bracket, showing how I think this years championship will be won and lost.
Finally, for anyone interested, I have set up a NFL Playoff Challenge League for readers of the blog. I will be in it so why don't you and your friends enter too. if you are already playing it is easy to join. Just click this link and join the league. It is open to the public and no passwords are required. Good luck.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
For the regular readers of my blog, you will know I posted predictions in my preview's. Here is the complete list of results on a weekly basis.
Week 1 - 13-3
Week 2 - 11-5
Week 3 - 5-11
Week 4 - 11-4
Week 5 - 10-4
Week 6 - 8-6
Week 7 - 9-4
Week 8 - 7-7
Week 9 - 12-1 (Forgot to predict Thursday Night Football)
Week 10 - 11-3
Week 11 - 7-7
Week 12 - 10-6
Week 13 - 10-6
Week 14 - 11-5
Week 15 - 7-9
Week 16 - 13-3
Week 17 - 11-5
Total = 166-89 (forgot one game)
Percentage = 0.651
Overall, I think I could have done better but just under two thirds isn't a bad record and I now have a target to aim for next season.
As well as the weekly game by game predictions I also done a preview before the start of the season were I predicted each teams record for the year. The full article can be found here:
http://gjsportsblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/nfl-2012-season-preview.html
Below is a summary of how I got on.
Exactly correct - 2 (Buccaneers, Titans)
One win away - 4 (Bears, Cardinals, Jets, Raiders)
Two wins away - 8 (Packers, Giants, Cowboys, Falcons, Saints, Ravens, Browns, Jaguars)
Two and a half wins away - 2 (49ers, Rams)
Three Wins Away - 5 (Panthers, Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, Chargers)
Four Wins Away - 4 (Steelers, Bengals, Texans, Colts)
Five Wins Away - 2 (Broncos, Chiefs)
Six Wins Away - 3 (Eagles, Redskins, Seahawks)
Seven Wins Away - 1 (Vikings)
Eight Wins Away - 1 (Lions)
Again I'm not really sure how good or bad that is as I have nothing to compare it to but I will try to better it next season.
The one thing I do have something to compare is the teams I picked to qualify for the playoffs and my Superbowl prediction. I saved the predictions of five writers from a well known Football website and have compared my result with theirs.
I managed to pick out six (Packers, Falcons, 49ers, Patriots, Texans, Ravens) of the twelve playoff teams. Of the six I got wrong (Steelers, Chargers, Bills, Giants, Lions, Bears), only three of them got close (Steelers, Giants, Bears). The other three I was miles off with.
The six teams I did not predict to reach the playoffs were Seattle, Washington, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Denver. For four of those teams I overestimated how quickly things can turn around in the NFL. The Colts and the Redskins both got there with rookie quarterbacks who I highly rated but I just didn't think they would turn things around so quickly.
The Seahawks also got there with a rookie quarterback. I had read a lot about Russell Wilson in preseason about how great this kid was, mostly Bill Simmons, so I watched him in the first few games and to be honest I wasn't impressed. I remember in previous years about Eagles fans getting excited about Mike Kafka in preseason games and I had Wilson filed in the same bracket. It took him a few games to get settled but slowly his performances have improved and he has worked his way right up to the rookie of the year conversation.
The other team I overestimated was the Cincinnati Bengals. They made the playoffs last year but I expected the Steelers and Ravens to be a little bit ahead of them and I expected it would be another year on the learning curve for Andy Dalton and AJ Green. However, those two have stepped it up on offense along with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and with the defense also having a good year the Bengals managed to pick up the AFC's sixth seed.
The one team of the six who I would have given no chance to would have been the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings were poor last year and with Adrian Peterson coming off serious knee surgery I had them wrote off this year. I wasn't impressed with Christian Ponder in his rookie season either but he has shown a lot of improvement this year. His accuarcy has increased by 7.8% and he has thrown less interceptions in more games. He's far from perfect but if he can keep increasing those numbers, he may well turn out to be a decent quarterback for the Vikings. The biggest surprise though was Adrian Peterson. People just don't suffer career threatening injuries and then get to within 9 yards of breaking the single season rushing record. His performances have been exceptional and I am delighted to see him back in the playoffs where he belongs.
The final team I missed out is the worst and most embarrassing mistake I have made in my blogs this season. There's one thing any NFL fan, blogger, journalist, pundit should not do and I made a rookie mistake by doing it. I wrote off a Manning!!! Nobody should ever do that. I knew it then and I done it anyway. These guys seem to save their best for when people are writing them off. I am convinced that the reason the Giants didn't make the playoffs this year is because nobody was writing off Eli after his excellent performances last year when he won his second Superbowl. No doubt people will write him off this off season and he'll come back and lead the Giants on a deep playoff run.
As I said, I wrote off Peyton Manning. He had some pretty serious surgery last year and I just didn't think he was going to be the same guy but he has lost nothing and will be right up there when this years MVP is decided. Right now, I'd put him behind Adrian Peterson in that race but I've learned my lesson and I am certainly not going to rule him out.
The final prediction I made was my Superbowl pick. At the start of the season, I predicted the 49ers would beat the Patriots which I am happy to say is still a possibility. My thoughts have changed to be honest but at least I still have the chance of being correct.
In comparison to the five writers I compared myself against, I haven't done great. Of the other five, one predicted eight teams correctly, two predicted seven correctly and the other two predicted six correctly. I never beat any of them but at least I done as well as two of them.
In the Superbowl predictions, I am still in contention to be correct along with four of the five writers. The one who is already wrong predicted a repeat of last year's Superbowl with the Giants once again beating the Patriots.
My predictions aren't done for the season and I will continue to do my previews and predictions for every playoff game, including the Superbowl. I will also complete a playoff bracket, showing how I think this years championship will be won and lost.
Finally, for anyone interested, I have set up a NFL Playoff Challenge League for readers of the blog. I will be in it so why don't you and your friends enter too. if you are already playing it is easy to join. Just click this link and join the league. It is open to the public and no passwords are required. Good luck.
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/group/22047/join
Friday, 14 December 2012
NFL Week 15 - Preview and Predictions
New York Giants (8-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (11-2)
This game could be the first of two meetings between these sides this year as both look to be playoff bound and they could meet again at some stage in the post season. They met last year in the playoffs and the Giants picked up a dominant win. The Giants seem to have the edge over the Falcons and have won the last four in the series. New York started the season well and looked to be running away with the NFC East but they had a bad run of results which has allowed Washington and Dallas back into the race for the division. The Falcons have guaranteed themselves a playoff place and regardless of Sunday's results will still hold the NFC's number one seed. They have a great record but the performances have been poor in recent weeks and they will need to improve if they want to give Matt Ryan his first victory in a playoff game. Both sides will prioritise the passing game but the Giants have the better backup if they need to resort to their running game.
Prediction - I like this match up for the Giants and think they will get the win.
Green Bay Packers (9-4) @ Chicago Bears (8-5)
I've been looking forward to this one for a while now. Recent results have gone against the Bears but they have a chance to get themselves equal with the Packers on Sunday. A Bears win at Soldier Field would leave both sides at 9-5 with just two games to go. Both sides should win in week 16 which would mean the Packers would have to go to Minnesota in week 17 and win as long as the Bears win in Detroit. A Bears win would be the best result for the neutral and would lead to an exciting finale. If the Packers win it would secure the NFC North and a guaranteed home game in the playoffs. The Bears would be right in the mix of the wildcard race at 8-6 and would have work to do to secure a playoff place. Two of the most important players in this game are listed as questionable. The Bears need Jay Cutler to play but he left last weeks game with a neck injury and might not be available. In most recent meetings between these teams the best player on the field has been Green Bay linebacker, Clay Matthews. Matthews has a hamstring injury and is also doubtful for this game. He would be a big loss for the Packers as he usually spends this game lying on top of Jay Cutler after yet another sack.
Prediction - If Cutler plays and Matthews doesn't the Bears have a chance but I don't think it will work out for the Bears and the Packers will get the win to clinch the division.
Washington Redskins (7-6) @ Cleveland Browns (5-8)
This game will depend on the availability of the Washington Redskins rookie quarterback, Robert Griffin III. RG3 left Sunday's win over the Ravens late on with a knee injury but thankfully it was nothing too serious and he will be back this season, although there are question marks over his status for this game. At present he is listed as questionable and it seems like the decision will be left until Sunday. The Redskins are on a four game winning streakand it has lifted them into the playoff race but they really do need RG3 to be at his best to keep the run going. The Browns are in the middle of their own winning streak and have won three in a row. It's too late for the playoffs but I do think there could be a bright future in Cleveland within the next few years. The Redskins lead the NFL in rushing and should be able to pick up yards against a Browns defense that ranks 18th against the run. The Redskins are good against the run, ranking 8th in the league but they will have their hands full with Trent Richardson. The Redskins big weakness is on pass defense and they rank 31st. The Browns are 18th in passing and can exploit the Redskins in this area.
Prediction - It's very hard to make a call on this one without knowing RG3's status. I suspect he is struggling and if he plays, he won't be at full strength so I'm going for a Browns win.
Minnesota Vikings (7-6) @ St Louis Rams (6-6-1)
The Vikings head to St Louis on Sunday needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Vikings have got themselves into this position thanks to a fantastic season from star running-back, Adrian Peterson. Peterson is just 160 yards away from his career best and with three games remaining he will be looking beyond his personal best and he will be aiming to get as close to the all-time record as he can. The Rams still have an outside chance of the playoffs but they can settle for no less than three wins. Even that probably won't be enough but the Rams will at least try to push their rivals as far as they can. The Vikings are all about the running game and they rank 32nd in passing. Their Rams defense are 13th against the run so I would expect Adrian Peterson to have another big day. The Rams will also try to run the ball and will be hoping Steven Jackson can play. He is listed as probable but will more than likely play.
Prediction - I think Adrian Peterson will lead the Vikings to a big road win and keep their playoff dream alive.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) @ Miami Dolphins (5-8)
Miami and Jacksonville meet on Sunday in a game that means little more than local bragging rights and next years draft order. The Jags have had a bad year and will have an early pick in the 2013 draft. The Dolphins were in with a chance of the playoffs but they have hit a bad run and are no longer in contention. They won three in a row which got them to 4-3 for the season but they have won just one of their six games since then and it has killed off their playoff hopes. Both sides are a bit away from being serious contenders and early draft picks should help in the future.
Prediction - The Dolphins should have enough to pick up the win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) @ New Orleans Saints (5-8)
This game between two NFC South rivals had the potential to be a cracker a few weeks ago but both teams have hit bad form and neither will be in this years playoffs. Tampa Bay look like a team on the up. I'm a fan of Josh Freeman and after a slow start, he finally found his form. He has linked up well with Vincent Jackson in recent weeks, who on his day, is one of the best receivers in the league. Doug Martin has also had a great year and if he can improve on his rookie season, he will be a huge asset to the Bucs. This season was always going to be tough for the Saints in the aftermath of Bountygate. They have a lot of good players though and I expect them to be competitive again next year. I like the match ups in this one. The Saints are 2nd in passing and the Bucs are 32nd in pass defense. The Bucs are 13th in passing and 12th in rushing. The Saints defense are 30th against the pass and 32nd against the run. The Bucs are 1st against the run and the Saints are 26th in rushing so it looks like the Saints will have to rely on the pass.
Prediction - This game should be high scoring but I think the Bucs are the all round better team and will win.
Denver Broncos (10-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-4)
A few weeks ago this looked like a must win game for the Broncos to give themselves an outside chance of a top two seed and a bye in the first round of the playoffs. The Broncos have kept winning and their streak now stands at eight wins in a row. The Ravens have lost their last two games and it leaves them needing a win here to have any chance of getting the number two seed. In my opinion, the Broncos are the real deal. They were a good side last year and won a playoff game before eventually falling to the New England Patriots in the divisional round of the playoffs. They have made a huge upgrade at quarterback by replacing Tim Tebow with Peyton Manning and right now it looks as though it may be the difference between a good team and a potential Superbowl winning team. The Ravens have not impressed me. They are 9-4 but six of those nine wins have been by a touchdown or less. They deserve credit for winning a lot of tight games but they could so easily have gone the other way. The opponents in those tight wins weren't always good sides either, with the Chiefs, the Browns and the Chargers all taking them the distance.
Prediction - The Broncos have a good defense and should find it easier to stop the Ravens than the Ravens will find it to stop Peyton Manning and the Broncos passing game. Denver will win this one.
Indianapolis Colts (9-4) @ Houston Texans (11-2)
This game will go a long way in deciding who will win the AFC South and guarantee themselves at least one home playoff game. A Texans win on Sunday would guarantee the division and would take them a step closer to the AFC's number one seed. The Colts have had a great year and I don't think there was many people outside Indianapolis who predicted they would be 9-4 at this stage of the season. The Colts have embraced new quarterback, Andrew Luck and the team seem to have a great spirit about them which I imagine has come about due to Coach Pagano's illness. Thankfully Pagano is on the mend and he will be delighted that the Colts are doing him proud. The Texans are 11-2 for the year but their form has dropped in recent weeks. They started off very well and were blowing out everything in front of them but they haven't looked as good since their big win over Baltimore in week 7. If the Texans rediscover their early season form they are Superbowl contenders, if not, then they will not get past the Patriots or Broncos in the AFC.
Prediction - The Texans will clinch the division with a win over the Colts.
Seattle Seahawks (8-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-8)
The Seahawks head to Toronto to face the Buffalo Bills who look like missing out on the playoffs for the 13th year in a row. The Seahawks on the other hand have a great chance of a playoff place and might still be able to win the division. A win here and a 49ers defeat in New England would leave the Seahawks and the 49ers on nine wins each. The teams meet in Seattle next week and the NFC West would be very much up for grabs. The Seahawks have one of the best defenses in the league and their biggest challenge on Sunday will be stopping the Bills running game. The Bills are 6th in rushing and could be even higher if they decided to go with CJ Spiller instead of splitting carries between him and Fred Jackson. Spiller has 6.6 yards per carry and Jackson has 3.8 yards per carry. The Bills defence will also have to deal with a good running game. The Seahawks are 4th in rushing and Marshawn Lynch has been having a great year. He has ran for 1266 yards this season which is 2nd in the league.
Prediction - The Seahawks will take another step closer to the playoffs with a win in Toronto.
Detroit Lions (4-9) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-9)
Arizona have set an NFL record by becoming the first team to lose nine games in a row after a 4-0 start to the season. Things don't look like improving either if last weeks 58-0 defeat in Seattle is anything to go by. Quarterback, Kevin Kolb has been placed on injured reserve and I would be surprised if they win any of their remaining games. The Lions have been a huge disappointment. They have drafted well in recent years and I thought this would be the year that they moved up the next level and became a serious competitor in the NFC. It hasn't materialised though and they are heading towards another top ten draft pick. The Cardinals offense is very poor and the only thing they do well is turnovers. The Lions lead the NFL in passing but when required Mikel Leshoure is capable of carrying the offense. He might have to do it this week as the Cards are 5th in pass defense and 30th in run defense so it may be in the Lions best interests to try to win this one on the ground.
Prediction - The Lions will extend Arizona's misery to ten defeats in a row.
Carolina Panthers (4-9) @ San Diego Chargers (5-8)
Neither of these teams will be in the playoffs this year but they have both shown glimpses of being good teams. They have both lacked the consistency required to be a playoff contender though. The Panthers have had good wins against potential playoff teams, like Washington and Atlanta but defeats to teams like Kansas City has cost them. The Chargers had a big win last week over the Steelers but the damage had already been done with the seven defeats in eight games that went before it. I expect this to be Norv Turner's last year in charge and if the rumours are true, Andy Reid could be heading to San Diego next year.
Prediction - I think the Chargers are a better team if both play to their potential and they will win this one.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-6)
The Steelers and the Cowboys face off in Dallas on Sunday in a game both sides need to win. Both sides are just outside the playoffs as things stand and can't afford many slip ups if they are to push on and clinch a spot in the post season. The Steelers were in the sixth seed in the AFC until the Bengals beat the Eagles in Philadelphia on Thursday. A win would put them back in a playoff spot ahead of a meeting between the two in Pittsburgh next week. The Cowboys are 7-6 and just a game behind the Giants in the NFC East. They are also just one win behind the Bears and Seahawks in the wildcard race. Both sides will look to pass the ball, with the Cowboys ranked 3rd and the Steelers ranked 11th. Pittsburgh's numbers have suffered a little due to Ben Roethlisberger's injury and they should be higher. Both sides also have decent pass defenses, with the Steelers the best in the league and the Cowboys ranked 10th. It promises to be a tight game and neither side will find it easy to get the win.
Prediction - I trust Roethlisberger more than I trust Tony Romo so I will side with the Steelers.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) @ Oakland Raiders (3-10)
This battle between the AFC West's weakest teams will play a big part in deciding the order of the 2013 draft. These two will be picking early and as things stand, they would both be picking in the top three. Obviously one of them will pick up a win on Sunday which could change the order but I can't see either of them winning their week 16 or week 17 fixtures so they should still be in the first few picks. I expect the Chiefs to have a good day on the ground. They rank 5th in rushing and the Raiders are 26th on the ground. If the Chiefs can take care of the ball, there's no reason why they can't pick up a win against an Oakland team who have been struggling this year. The Chiefs have the worst record in the league but I don't think they are the worst team in the league. Their numbers are pretty good in all areas except turnovers. They have turned the ball over 33 times this year and their defense has only forced 11 turnovers so their differential stands at -22 which is tied with the Eagles as the worst in the league.
Prediction - I'm going to take a punt on the Chiefs having a turnover free day and getting the win.
San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) @ New England Patriots (10-3)
The television companies haven't always got it right this year but on this occasion they are bang on the money. This game will be shown nationally on Sunday Night Football and it looks like being an absolute cracker. These two are polar opposites in terms of style. Sometimes it ruins games but on this occasion I think it will make it one not to be missed. The Pats are an explosive offense and although they will try to pass first, they can also give the ball to Stevan Ridley and attack on the ground. The 49ers are a run first offense and rank 2nd in the league behind the Washington Redskins. Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter were doing a good job. Hunter has since gone down with a bad ankle sprain and the 49ers seem to have changed styles in recent weeks. Since Alex Smith got injured against the Rams in week 10, they have gone with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. He has had his good moments but I don't think he is the man for the job. I believe if it's not broke, don't fix it. The 49ers offense was fine but Kaepernick is a mobile quarterback and the style of play has changed because of it. The 49ers are still run heavy but Kaepernick is taking carries away from Frank Gore and his passing isn't as good as Alex Smith's so in my opinion, the 49ers are worse off because of it.
Prediction - The Patriots will get another comfortable win over a potential Superbowl rival.
This game could be the first of two meetings between these sides this year as both look to be playoff bound and they could meet again at some stage in the post season. They met last year in the playoffs and the Giants picked up a dominant win. The Giants seem to have the edge over the Falcons and have won the last four in the series. New York started the season well and looked to be running away with the NFC East but they had a bad run of results which has allowed Washington and Dallas back into the race for the division. The Falcons have guaranteed themselves a playoff place and regardless of Sunday's results will still hold the NFC's number one seed. They have a great record but the performances have been poor in recent weeks and they will need to improve if they want to give Matt Ryan his first victory in a playoff game. Both sides will prioritise the passing game but the Giants have the better backup if they need to resort to their running game.
Prediction - I like this match up for the Giants and think they will get the win.
Green Bay Packers (9-4) @ Chicago Bears (8-5)
I've been looking forward to this one for a while now. Recent results have gone against the Bears but they have a chance to get themselves equal with the Packers on Sunday. A Bears win at Soldier Field would leave both sides at 9-5 with just two games to go. Both sides should win in week 16 which would mean the Packers would have to go to Minnesota in week 17 and win as long as the Bears win in Detroit. A Bears win would be the best result for the neutral and would lead to an exciting finale. If the Packers win it would secure the NFC North and a guaranteed home game in the playoffs. The Bears would be right in the mix of the wildcard race at 8-6 and would have work to do to secure a playoff place. Two of the most important players in this game are listed as questionable. The Bears need Jay Cutler to play but he left last weeks game with a neck injury and might not be available. In most recent meetings between these teams the best player on the field has been Green Bay linebacker, Clay Matthews. Matthews has a hamstring injury and is also doubtful for this game. He would be a big loss for the Packers as he usually spends this game lying on top of Jay Cutler after yet another sack.
Prediction - If Cutler plays and Matthews doesn't the Bears have a chance but I don't think it will work out for the Bears and the Packers will get the win to clinch the division.
Washington Redskins (7-6) @ Cleveland Browns (5-8)
This game will depend on the availability of the Washington Redskins rookie quarterback, Robert Griffin III. RG3 left Sunday's win over the Ravens late on with a knee injury but thankfully it was nothing too serious and he will be back this season, although there are question marks over his status for this game. At present he is listed as questionable and it seems like the decision will be left until Sunday. The Redskins are on a four game winning streakand it has lifted them into the playoff race but they really do need RG3 to be at his best to keep the run going. The Browns are in the middle of their own winning streak and have won three in a row. It's too late for the playoffs but I do think there could be a bright future in Cleveland within the next few years. The Redskins lead the NFL in rushing and should be able to pick up yards against a Browns defense that ranks 18th against the run. The Redskins are good against the run, ranking 8th in the league but they will have their hands full with Trent Richardson. The Redskins big weakness is on pass defense and they rank 31st. The Browns are 18th in passing and can exploit the Redskins in this area.
Prediction - It's very hard to make a call on this one without knowing RG3's status. I suspect he is struggling and if he plays, he won't be at full strength so I'm going for a Browns win.
Minnesota Vikings (7-6) @ St Louis Rams (6-6-1)
The Vikings head to St Louis on Sunday needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Vikings have got themselves into this position thanks to a fantastic season from star running-back, Adrian Peterson. Peterson is just 160 yards away from his career best and with three games remaining he will be looking beyond his personal best and he will be aiming to get as close to the all-time record as he can. The Rams still have an outside chance of the playoffs but they can settle for no less than three wins. Even that probably won't be enough but the Rams will at least try to push their rivals as far as they can. The Vikings are all about the running game and they rank 32nd in passing. Their Rams defense are 13th against the run so I would expect Adrian Peterson to have another big day. The Rams will also try to run the ball and will be hoping Steven Jackson can play. He is listed as probable but will more than likely play.
Prediction - I think Adrian Peterson will lead the Vikings to a big road win and keep their playoff dream alive.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) @ Miami Dolphins (5-8)
Miami and Jacksonville meet on Sunday in a game that means little more than local bragging rights and next years draft order. The Jags have had a bad year and will have an early pick in the 2013 draft. The Dolphins were in with a chance of the playoffs but they have hit a bad run and are no longer in contention. They won three in a row which got them to 4-3 for the season but they have won just one of their six games since then and it has killed off their playoff hopes. Both sides are a bit away from being serious contenders and early draft picks should help in the future.
Prediction - The Dolphins should have enough to pick up the win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) @ New Orleans Saints (5-8)
This game between two NFC South rivals had the potential to be a cracker a few weeks ago but both teams have hit bad form and neither will be in this years playoffs. Tampa Bay look like a team on the up. I'm a fan of Josh Freeman and after a slow start, he finally found his form. He has linked up well with Vincent Jackson in recent weeks, who on his day, is one of the best receivers in the league. Doug Martin has also had a great year and if he can improve on his rookie season, he will be a huge asset to the Bucs. This season was always going to be tough for the Saints in the aftermath of Bountygate. They have a lot of good players though and I expect them to be competitive again next year. I like the match ups in this one. The Saints are 2nd in passing and the Bucs are 32nd in pass defense. The Bucs are 13th in passing and 12th in rushing. The Saints defense are 30th against the pass and 32nd against the run. The Bucs are 1st against the run and the Saints are 26th in rushing so it looks like the Saints will have to rely on the pass.
Prediction - This game should be high scoring but I think the Bucs are the all round better team and will win.
Denver Broncos (10-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-4)
A few weeks ago this looked like a must win game for the Broncos to give themselves an outside chance of a top two seed and a bye in the first round of the playoffs. The Broncos have kept winning and their streak now stands at eight wins in a row. The Ravens have lost their last two games and it leaves them needing a win here to have any chance of getting the number two seed. In my opinion, the Broncos are the real deal. They were a good side last year and won a playoff game before eventually falling to the New England Patriots in the divisional round of the playoffs. They have made a huge upgrade at quarterback by replacing Tim Tebow with Peyton Manning and right now it looks as though it may be the difference between a good team and a potential Superbowl winning team. The Ravens have not impressed me. They are 9-4 but six of those nine wins have been by a touchdown or less. They deserve credit for winning a lot of tight games but they could so easily have gone the other way. The opponents in those tight wins weren't always good sides either, with the Chiefs, the Browns and the Chargers all taking them the distance.
Prediction - The Broncos have a good defense and should find it easier to stop the Ravens than the Ravens will find it to stop Peyton Manning and the Broncos passing game. Denver will win this one.
Indianapolis Colts (9-4) @ Houston Texans (11-2)
This game will go a long way in deciding who will win the AFC South and guarantee themselves at least one home playoff game. A Texans win on Sunday would guarantee the division and would take them a step closer to the AFC's number one seed. The Colts have had a great year and I don't think there was many people outside Indianapolis who predicted they would be 9-4 at this stage of the season. The Colts have embraced new quarterback, Andrew Luck and the team seem to have a great spirit about them which I imagine has come about due to Coach Pagano's illness. Thankfully Pagano is on the mend and he will be delighted that the Colts are doing him proud. The Texans are 11-2 for the year but their form has dropped in recent weeks. They started off very well and were blowing out everything in front of them but they haven't looked as good since their big win over Baltimore in week 7. If the Texans rediscover their early season form they are Superbowl contenders, if not, then they will not get past the Patriots or Broncos in the AFC.
Prediction - The Texans will clinch the division with a win over the Colts.
Seattle Seahawks (8-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-8)
The Seahawks head to Toronto to face the Buffalo Bills who look like missing out on the playoffs for the 13th year in a row. The Seahawks on the other hand have a great chance of a playoff place and might still be able to win the division. A win here and a 49ers defeat in New England would leave the Seahawks and the 49ers on nine wins each. The teams meet in Seattle next week and the NFC West would be very much up for grabs. The Seahawks have one of the best defenses in the league and their biggest challenge on Sunday will be stopping the Bills running game. The Bills are 6th in rushing and could be even higher if they decided to go with CJ Spiller instead of splitting carries between him and Fred Jackson. Spiller has 6.6 yards per carry and Jackson has 3.8 yards per carry. The Bills defence will also have to deal with a good running game. The Seahawks are 4th in rushing and Marshawn Lynch has been having a great year. He has ran for 1266 yards this season which is 2nd in the league.
Prediction - The Seahawks will take another step closer to the playoffs with a win in Toronto.
Detroit Lions (4-9) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-9)
Arizona have set an NFL record by becoming the first team to lose nine games in a row after a 4-0 start to the season. Things don't look like improving either if last weeks 58-0 defeat in Seattle is anything to go by. Quarterback, Kevin Kolb has been placed on injured reserve and I would be surprised if they win any of their remaining games. The Lions have been a huge disappointment. They have drafted well in recent years and I thought this would be the year that they moved up the next level and became a serious competitor in the NFC. It hasn't materialised though and they are heading towards another top ten draft pick. The Cardinals offense is very poor and the only thing they do well is turnovers. The Lions lead the NFL in passing but when required Mikel Leshoure is capable of carrying the offense. He might have to do it this week as the Cards are 5th in pass defense and 30th in run defense so it may be in the Lions best interests to try to win this one on the ground.
Prediction - The Lions will extend Arizona's misery to ten defeats in a row.
Carolina Panthers (4-9) @ San Diego Chargers (5-8)
Neither of these teams will be in the playoffs this year but they have both shown glimpses of being good teams. They have both lacked the consistency required to be a playoff contender though. The Panthers have had good wins against potential playoff teams, like Washington and Atlanta but defeats to teams like Kansas City has cost them. The Chargers had a big win last week over the Steelers but the damage had already been done with the seven defeats in eight games that went before it. I expect this to be Norv Turner's last year in charge and if the rumours are true, Andy Reid could be heading to San Diego next year.
Prediction - I think the Chargers are a better team if both play to their potential and they will win this one.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-6)
The Steelers and the Cowboys face off in Dallas on Sunday in a game both sides need to win. Both sides are just outside the playoffs as things stand and can't afford many slip ups if they are to push on and clinch a spot in the post season. The Steelers were in the sixth seed in the AFC until the Bengals beat the Eagles in Philadelphia on Thursday. A win would put them back in a playoff spot ahead of a meeting between the two in Pittsburgh next week. The Cowboys are 7-6 and just a game behind the Giants in the NFC East. They are also just one win behind the Bears and Seahawks in the wildcard race. Both sides will look to pass the ball, with the Cowboys ranked 3rd and the Steelers ranked 11th. Pittsburgh's numbers have suffered a little due to Ben Roethlisberger's injury and they should be higher. Both sides also have decent pass defenses, with the Steelers the best in the league and the Cowboys ranked 10th. It promises to be a tight game and neither side will find it easy to get the win.
Prediction - I trust Roethlisberger more than I trust Tony Romo so I will side with the Steelers.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) @ Oakland Raiders (3-10)
This battle between the AFC West's weakest teams will play a big part in deciding the order of the 2013 draft. These two will be picking early and as things stand, they would both be picking in the top three. Obviously one of them will pick up a win on Sunday which could change the order but I can't see either of them winning their week 16 or week 17 fixtures so they should still be in the first few picks. I expect the Chiefs to have a good day on the ground. They rank 5th in rushing and the Raiders are 26th on the ground. If the Chiefs can take care of the ball, there's no reason why they can't pick up a win against an Oakland team who have been struggling this year. The Chiefs have the worst record in the league but I don't think they are the worst team in the league. Their numbers are pretty good in all areas except turnovers. They have turned the ball over 33 times this year and their defense has only forced 11 turnovers so their differential stands at -22 which is tied with the Eagles as the worst in the league.
Prediction - I'm going to take a punt on the Chiefs having a turnover free day and getting the win.
San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) @ New England Patriots (10-3)
The television companies haven't always got it right this year but on this occasion they are bang on the money. This game will be shown nationally on Sunday Night Football and it looks like being an absolute cracker. These two are polar opposites in terms of style. Sometimes it ruins games but on this occasion I think it will make it one not to be missed. The Pats are an explosive offense and although they will try to pass first, they can also give the ball to Stevan Ridley and attack on the ground. The 49ers are a run first offense and rank 2nd in the league behind the Washington Redskins. Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter were doing a good job. Hunter has since gone down with a bad ankle sprain and the 49ers seem to have changed styles in recent weeks. Since Alex Smith got injured against the Rams in week 10, they have gone with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. He has had his good moments but I don't think he is the man for the job. I believe if it's not broke, don't fix it. The 49ers offense was fine but Kaepernick is a mobile quarterback and the style of play has changed because of it. The 49ers are still run heavy but Kaepernick is taking carries away from Frank Gore and his passing isn't as good as Alex Smith's so in my opinion, the 49ers are worse off because of it.
Prediction - The Patriots will get another comfortable win over a potential Superbowl rival.
Monday, 10 December 2012
Monday Night Football - Houston Texans (11-1) @ New England Patriots (9-3)
This weeks Monday Night Football should be a cracker and may even be a preview of the AFC Championship game. The Houston Texans are 11-1 and the New England Patriots are 9-3. Both sides have clinched their playoff spot and are now chasing one of the top two seeds and a bye in the first round of the playoffs. As things stand, the Texans are in the number one seed and the Patriots are number three. A New England win could make things very tight. The Texans would be 11-2, just ahead of the Patriots and the Denver Broncos at 10-3.
The Texans have the best record in the NFL but it's hard to judge how good they are as they have had a soft schedule. They have only faced four winning teams but in fairness, they are 3-1 in those games. They are clearly a good side but I fear they may have peaked too soon. Their performance levels have dropped in recent weeks and they were quite fortunate to beat the Jaguars and the Lions.
They have a few very good players on their roster. Arian Foster is an elite running-back and leads the league with 13 rushing touchdowns. He is in the band of players who would be mentioned if asked who the best rusher in the league is. At receiver they have Andre Johnson who is not quite in the conversation of who the best receiver in the league is but he's most definitely in the top 5-10 bracket. At tight end they have Owen Daniels who is right behind Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham as the best in his position in the league. Their quarterback, Matt Schaub is very underrated. He doesn't get as much publicity as a lot of other quarterbacks but he should. Outside the Mannings, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger and Rodgers, I don't think there's anyone better than him. He has a different role to those guys but does his job very well. He has a great running game and doesn't have to throw as often as they do but as far as game managing quarterbacks are concerned, Schaub is in a league of his own. The stars aren't all on offense. J.J. Watt has had 16.5 sacks for the seasons which is only bettered by Aldon Smith of the 49ers. Kareem Jackson is also beginning to make a name for himself at corner back and has intercepted four passes.
The Patriots got off to a poor start and questions were being asked when they were 3-3. From then the Patriots have won six in a row which has clinched yet another AFC East title for Bill Belichick's men. Like the Texans, their record is questionable as they have also only faced four winning teams. The Patriots are 2-2 in those games.
The poor start can possibly be put down to the fact Bill Belichick was trying to change the offense and Wes Welker wasn't really being used. That plan was scrapped and since then Welker has been excellent and leads the Patriots in receptions. He has caught 92 passes for 1064 yards and 4 touchdowns. Rob Gronkowski and Brandon Lloyd have also helped out and are having good years. Tom Brady hasn't shown any signs of slowing down and is having another great year. He has thrown for over 3500 yards, 25 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The four interceptions are a great stat and it is testament to how good Brady is. There is nobody in the NFL who does a better job of looking after the football than Tom Brady.
The one difference between this Patriots team and the ones in recent seasons is running-back, Stevan Ridley. Ridley has had an excellent year and he has already picked up more rushing yards than every Patriots running-back since Antowain Smith in the 2001 season. Ridley should pass Smith as he is only 147 yards behind him with four games remaining. Ridley is only in his second year in the league and he looks like one of the next generation of elite running-backs.
The match ups would suggest this should be a tight game. The Pats are 5th in passing and 8th in rushing. Their defense is 8th against the run and their one weakness is the pass defense and they rank 29th. The Texans are 10th in passing and 6th in rushing. Their defense is 17th against the pass and 2nd against the run. Both teams biggest weakness is pass defense, so it should come down to Brady v Schaub.
Prediction - I think Tom Brady will exploit the Texans pass defense and guide the Patriots to a much needed win.
Tuesday, 4 December 2012
NFL POWER RANKINGS - WEEK 14
1 (1) Houston Texans (11-1) - The Texans are 11-1 after yet another win. They have now secured their playoff place and are two wins clear in the race for the AFC's number one seed. The Texans took a 14-3 lead in the first quarter and never looked back, running out 24-10 winners. Matt Schaub threw for 207 yards and 2 touchdowns. Arian Foster was restricted to just 2.7 yards per carry but he did get a touchdown. The Texans look like the cream of the AFC and it will take a team to be in top form to deny them their first Superbowl appearance.
2 (2) Atlanta Falcons (11-1) - The Falcons finally beat the Saints and that result combined with Tampa Bay's loss to the Broncos means the Atlanta Falcons are the 2012 NFC South winners. Next up for the Falcons will be sealing a first round bye in the playoffs. With the 49ers and the Bears losing, the Falcons should seal the number one seed within the next few weeks and then they can decide if they want to rest players or not. Matt Ryan threw for 165 yards and a touchdown. Tony Gonzalez was the star receiver, catching 4 passes for 58 yards and a touchdown. Michael Turner had a good day, running for 83 yards and a touchdown.
3 (3) New England Patriots (9-3) - New England sealed their fourth consecutive AFC East title with a win over the Dolphins in Miami. The win also took the Patriots into the number two seed as they are winning the tie breaker with Baltimore and Denver. In a tie breaker between the Ravens and the Patriots, the Ravens would come out on top but because the three of them are tied at 9-3, the Patriots take the breaker due to their conference record. Tom Brady threw for 238 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Wes Welker was his leading receiver, catching 12 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown. Stevan Ridley led the rushers with 71 yards and a touchdown.
4 (6) Denver Broncos (9-3) - The Broncos clinched the AFC West title after a hard earned victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The first half was tight and it wasn't until the third quarter that the Broncos were able to assert their dominance. The Broncos scored three unanswered touchdowns in the third to open an 18 point gap. The Bucs never gave up though and pushed the Broncos all the way. The Bucs got it back to a one score game but were unable to recover the onside kick and Denver picked up the first down they needed to enable Peyton Manning to run the clock out. Manning threw for 242 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception. Demaryius Thomas was the leading receiver, catching 8 passes for 99 yards and 2 touchdowns.
5 (9) Green Bay Packers (8-4) - The Packers returned to the top of the NFC North with a win over the Minnesota Vikings. The Packers lead the way thanks to their week 2 win over the Chicago Bears but the teams are due to meet again in week 15 and I'd go as far as to say, the winners of that will win the NFC North. Aaron Rodgers threw for 286 yards, a touchdown and an interception. The Packers had a good day on the ground, picking up 152 yards from their rushers.
6 (4) Baltimore Ravens (9-3) - The Ravens suffered a poor defeat at home to divisional rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers had Charlie Batch at quarterback so the Ravens really should have been winning this one. Baltimore held a lead until the fourth quarter and lost the game to a field goal as time expired. I have my doubts about this Baltimore team and the defeat means they are no longer in pole position for a first round bye in the playoffs. Joe Flacco threw for 188 yards, a touchdown and an interception. His leading receiver was Anquan Boldin who caught 5 passes for 81 yards and a touchdown. Ray Rice led the rushers, picking up 78 yards from just 12 carries.
7 (5) San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1) - The 49ers lost to the St Louis Rams on Sunday to drop to 8-3-1 for the year. The only time the 49ers trailed in the game was when Greg Zuerlein kicked the game winning field goal with 26 seconds left of overtime. The 49ers weren't at their best and will need to improve if they are to make an impression in the playoffs. Colin Kaepernick threw for 208 yards and also led the rushers with 84 yards. Michael Crabtree was the leading receiver, catching 7 passes for 101 yards.
8 (7) Chicago Bears (8-4) - The Bears suffered an overtime defeat to the Seattle Seahawks. The defeat combined with the Green Bay Packers winning means the Packers return to the top of the NFC North and the Bears drop to the fifth seed. The game was tight throughout and there was never more than a touchdown between the teams. The Bears showed great resolve when they went behind with just 24 seconds remaining. Brandon Marshall caught a Hail Mary pass from Jay Cutler to set up a field goal to send the game to overtime. However, the Bears never touched the ball in overtime and the Seahawks won with a Sidney Rice touchdown. Cutler threw for 233 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brandon Marshall caught 10 passes for 165 yards. The Bears rushers combined for 132 yards from 32 carries but it wasn't enough to get the win.
9 (10) Indianapolis Colts (8-4) - The Colts picked up a dramatic win in one of the best finishes to an NFL game in recent seasons. The Lions looked to have the game won and were leading 33-21 until late in the fourth quarter. The Colts weren't beat though and scored a touchdown with 2:39 remaining. The defense held firm and then on the final play of the game Andrew Luck found Donnie Avery who got into the end zone to seal a remarkable win for the Colts. Andrew Luck threw for 391 yards, 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. TY Hilton and Donnie Avery were the best receivers for the Colts. Hilton caught 6 passes for 100 yards and Avery caught 5 passes for 91 yards including the game winning touchdown.
10 (8) New York Giants (7-5) - The Giants never make things easy for themselves and they have done the same thing this year. A win here and the remainder of their regular season would have been spent jockeying for position in the NFC playoff bracket. Now they are potentially one loss away from being out of the playoffs completely. They lost this game by a single point after Robert Griffin III led the Redskins to a fourth quarter comeback win. Eli Manning threw for 280 yards and a touchdown. Victor Cruz was the leading receiver, catching 5 passes for 104 yards. Ahmed Bradshaw had a good day on the ground, rushing for 103 yards.
11 (12) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) - The Steelers picked up a massive win in Baltimore to keep their playoff hopes on track. The game was as tight as it always is when these two meet. The Steelers defense played well and managed to restrict Joe Flacco and this week Charlie Batch was up to the task, leading the Steelers to a fourth quarter comeback. Pittsburgh tied the game midway through the fourth and then Batch led the team in a six minute drive which finished with Shaun Suisham kicking the game winning field goal as time expired. Batch threw for 276 yards, a touchdown and an interception. His leading receiver was Heath Miller who caught 5 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown.
12 (16) Seattle Seahawks (7-5) - The Seahawks picked up a huge win in Chicago to give their playoff hopes a massive boost. The Seahawks deserved the win and should have sealed it before overtime. When Golden Tate caught a 14 yard touchdown pass from Russell Wilson with just 24 seconds left, the game should have been over but the Seahawks defense switched off to allow Brandon Marshall to catch a 56 yard pass from Jay Cutler to set up a field goal as time expired to send the game to overtime. Most teams would have struggled to come back from that but Seattle bounced back and scored a touchdown on the opening drive in overtime. Russell Wilson threw for 293 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sidney Rice and Golden Tate led the receivers. Rice caught 6 passes for 99 yards and a touchdown. Tate caught 5 passes for 96 yards and a touchdown. Marshawn Lynch had a good day on the ground and ran for 87 yards and a touchdown.
13 (14) Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) - Cincinnati beat the Chargers, 20-13, to record their fourth consecutive victory. The Bengals are now 7-5 and that record means they are just outside the AFC's wildcard spot based on their head to head record with Pittsburgh. The teams still have to meet though and it looks like a winner takes all battle. On Sunday, Andy Dalton threw for 211 yards, a touchdown and an interception. AJ Green was once again the leading receiver, catching 9 passes for 85 yards. BenJarvus Green-Ellis kept us his recent good form, rushing for 118 yards at 4.7 yards per carry.
14 (17) Washington Redskins (6-6) - When the Redskins drafted Robert Griffin III, I expected him to make the Redskins competitive in the future. As far as Washington are concerned the future is now and Monday nights win over the Giants puts them right in the middle of the playoff race. At 6-6 the Redskins have a great chance and their remaining schedule isn't too difficult. I would expect them to beat the Browns and the Eagles and their season will be decided on results against the Ravens and the Cowboys. Robert Griffin had a solid game in the air, throwing for 163 yards and a touchdown. He bettered that on the ground, picking up 72 yards from his 5 carries. Alfred Morris also picked up 124 yards on the ground and the Redskins ended up with 207 rushing yards. Pierre Garcon was the leading receiver, catching 8 passes for 106 yards and a touchdown.
15 (13) Minnesota Vikings (6-6) - The Vikings playoff hopes suffered a blow on Sunday after a loss to the Green Bay Packers. After going 10-0 down the Vikings came back to lead 14-10 at half time. They were unable to score again though and the Packers ran out winners. The defeat was harsh on Adrian Peterson who ran for 210 yards and a touchdown from his 21 carries. If he had got some support from his quarterback they might have won. Christian Ponder was only able to throw for 119 yards, a touchdown and 2 interceptions. When a running-back runs for almost double the yards that the quarterback throws for then the team have issues. Ponder started the season well but his form has dropped in recent weeks.
16 (15) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) - The Bucs are now back to 6-6 after a defeat to the Broncos in Denver. The Bucs led at half time but conceded 21 points in the third quarter which left them trailing, 28-10. The Bucs came back in the fourth and outscored the Broncos 13-3 but they were unable to recover an onside kick late in the kick and the Broncos picked up the win. Josh Freeman threw for 242 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. His leading receiver was Mike Williams who caught 6 passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos done a good job of restricting Doug Martin and he was only able to get 56 yards from 18 carries.
17 (18) Dallas Cowboys (6-6) - The Dallas Cowboys are suddenly, very much alive at 6-6 after the Giants lost to the Washington Redskins to make the NFC East a three horse race. The Cowboys done their bit by beating the Philadelphia Eagles 38-33 on Sunday night. The Cowboys were behind as the fourth quarter started but they outscored the Eagles 21-9 to take the win. Dallas' remaining schedule is tough but if they want to make the playoffs then they will have to win these games. Tony Romo threw for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns. His leading receivers were Jason Witten and Dez Bryant. Witten caught 6 passes for 108 yards and Bryant caught 6 for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns.
18 (11) New Orleans Saints (5-7) - The Saints have dropped to 5-7 after a defeat to the Atlanta Falcons which leaves their playoff hopes hanging by a thread. The Saints got off to a bad start and went 17-0 behind. They fought back well though and got the score back to 17-13 but they ran out of steam and the Falcons scored two fourth quarter field goals to seal the win. Drew Brees was intercepted five times and his streak of 54 consecutive games throwing a touchdown pass came to an end. He threw for 341 yards but the interceptions killed the Saints. Lance Moore was the leading receiver and caught 7 passes for 123 yards. Pierre Thomas led the rushers, picking up 84 yards.
19 (23) St Louis Rams (5-6-1) - The Rams kept their playoff hopes alive with an overtime victory over the San Francisco 49ers. The game was just 26 seconds away from ending in the second tie between the teams this season when Greg "the Leg" Zuerlein kicked a 54 yard field goal to win the game. Sam Bradford threw for 221 yards. The Rams running game was restricted to just 3.1 yards per carry. Chris Givens was the leading receiver, catching 11 passes for 92 yards.
20 (22) Buffalo Bills (5-7) - The Bills picked up a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars to keep alive their slim playoff hopes. The Bills finished the first half well to lead 17-10 at the half. They then sealed the win by scoring the first 17 points in the second half. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for just 112 yards but made 2 touchdown passes and was also intercepted. The Bills won the game on the ground, rushing for 232 yards. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller led the way with Jackson picking up 109 yards and Spiller got 77 yards and a touchdown.
21 (19) Detroit Lions (4-8) - The Lions suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday and it will almost certainly end their playoff hopes. The Lions led for most of the game and had a twelve point lead inside the final three minutes of the game. The Colts got a touchdown to reduce the arrears to five and then scored another touchdown as time expired to win the game. Matthew Stafford threw for 313 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. Calvin Johnson was his leading receiver and caught 13 passes for 171 yards and a touchdown. Joique Bell was the leading rusher and picked up 81 yards from just 7 carries.
22 (20) Miami Dolphins (5-7) - Miami's playoff hopes took a near fatal blow on Sunday after a defeat to the Patriots and wins for Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati who are all ahead of them in the wildcard race. The Dolphins kept the game close but were never able to reduce the arrears to less than a touchdown. The Dolphins will now require a minor miracle to see any action beyond week 17. Ryan Tannehill threw for 186 yards and also picked up a rushing touchdown. Brian Hartline was the leading receiver and caught 5 passes for 84 yards. Reggie Bush had a decent game, running for 64 yards from 15 carries.
23 (26) New York Jets (5-7) - The Jets picked up a narrow win over the Arizona Cardinals and the moment I've been waiting for all season finally happened. Mark Sanchez was having yet another nightmare and Rex Ryan finally looked to his backup. With Tim Tebow injured it was Greg McElroy who came in. McElroy done well, completing 5 of 7 passes for 29 yards and the game winning touchdown. Rex Ryan now has a big decision to make about the quarterback situation and in my opinion as long as he doesn't pick Mark Sanchez he will have made the right choice. The Jets had a good day on the ground and picked up 177 yards, 104 of which were from Shonn Greene.
24 (25) Cleveland Browns (4-8) - Cleveland picked up their first road win of the season in Oakland on Sunday after a 20-17 win over the Raiders. The Browns are now 4-8 and are showing signs of progress. They have been a losing franchise for a long time but they have a few good players and a solid draft and one or two free agent signings could see them push for a wildcard place within the next few seasons. Brandon Weeden threw for 364 yards, a touchdown and 2 interceptions. Josh Gordon was the leading receiver, catching 6 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown. Trent Richardson ran for 72 yards and a touchdown.
25 (21) San Diego Chargers (4-8) - The San Diego Chargers were beaten again, this time by the Cincinnati Bengals. The defeat leaves them almost definitely out of the playoffs and stretches their losing streak to four games. The Chargers led deep into the fourth quarter but the Bengals scored a touchdown with 4:11 left and followed it up with a field goal to seal the win. Philip Rivers threw for 280 yards and an interception. His leading receiver was Danario Alexander who caught 6 passes for 102 yards. the Chargers picked up 46 yards from 11 carries so the play calling has to be questioned, especially as the game was so close.
26 (24) Tennessee Titans (4-8) - The Titans lost to divisional rivals, the Houston Texans and it looks to have killed off their playoff hopes. The game was never really tight and the Texans had the game wrapped up from early on. Jake Locker didn't help things for his team by throwing 3 interceptions. Locker threw for 309 yards and a touchdown but he completed less than 50% of his passes and the 3 interceptions were costly. Chris Johnson only got 13 carries and ran for 51 yards. Nate Washington was the leading receiver and caught 3 passes for 96 yards.
27 (27) Carolina Panthers (3-9) - The Panthers lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in a game between two of the NFL's weakest teams. The game was overshadowed by the tragic events on Saturday when a Chiefs player killed his girlfriend and then himself. Cam Newton threw for 232 yards and 3 touchdowns. Steve Smith was the leading receiver and caught 5 passes for 120 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers also done well on tge ground, rushing for 165 yards but fate intervened and the Chiefs got the win.
28 (31) Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) - The Chiefs picked up the win in a game that will be remembered more for the tragic events of twenty-four hours earlier. Chiefs linebacker, Jovan Belcher murdered his girlfriend before turning the gun on himself at the teams practice facility. The Chiefs players were probably still in shock and winning Sunday's game was a remarkable achievement. My thoughts and prayers go the families of Jovan Belcher and Kasandra Perkins and especially baby Zoey who will never know her mum and dad. In the game, Brady Quinn threw for 201 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jamaal Charles had a huge day on the ground, rushing for 127 yards.
29 (28) Arizona Cardinals (4-8) - The Cards have now lost eight in a row after losing to the New York Jets. It was a poor game and the Cardinals only picked up 137 yards of offense. The Cardinals have suffered a dramatic decline since their 4-0 start and have the look of a team who are ready for the end of the season and don't have to endure the misery of playing football every day. Ryan Lindley completed less than a third of his passes for just 72 yards and an interception. Things are looking bleak for the Cardinals and changes will be required if they want to become a playoff contender again.
30 (29) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) - The Jaguars were unable to pick up back to back wins and slumped to a 34-18 defeat in Buffalo. The Jags took a 10-7 lead late in the second quarter but the Bills scored 27 unanswered points before Cecil Shorts III got a consolatory touchdown in the fourth quarter. Chad Henne returned to being the quarterback I remember in Miami, completing 18 of 41 passes for 208 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Shorts III was the leading receiver, catching 7 passes fir 77 yards and a touchdown. The Jags rushers were restricted to just 50 yards from 18 carries.
31 (30) Oakland Raiders (3-9) - The Oakland Raiders suffered another defeat to drop to 3-9 for the season and they will miss the playoffs for the tenth year in a row. Progress had been made as they finished 8-8 for the last two seasons but they are a bad team and it looks like it's back to the drawing board again. Carson Palmer threw for 351 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. Tight end, Brandon Myers, led the receivers, catching 14 passes for 130 yards and a touchdown. The running game was having some success and the Raiders averaged 5 yards per carry. However, only the coach can explain why they only ran the ball 17 times.
32 (32) Philadelphia Eagles (3-9) - So the Eagles lost again. Anyone care? Not me to be honest. The players jacked this season in a long time ago so I'm not going to get myself upset over another loss. I'm more concerned about the future. I want Reid to go and would like to see a complete overhaul at the franchise from top to bottom. My hopes for the remainder of the year are for the Eagles to get as high a draft pick as we can and to find out who the next head coach will be as soon as possible. This is an exciting time for me as I've never been here before as an Eagles fan. We have always had Andy Reid and we have almost always been competitive. I've been lucky in my years of following the Eagles that I've not experienced the bad until now. However, I realise that American sports are designed in such a way that teams will go through good cycles and bad cycles and if I'm honest it's a big reason why I regard American Football as the best sport in the world.
Sunday, 2 December 2012
NFL WEEK 13 PREVIEW AND PREDICTIONS
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) @ Buffalo Bills (4-7)
Despite having one of the worst records in the NFL there is a bit of a feel good factor around the Jacksonville Jaguars at the moment. Since Chad Henne has come in they have took the Houston Texans to overtime and followed it up with a win over the Tennessee Titans. Sometimes a change at quarterback can provide a team with a boost and it has certainly helped the Jags. Having said that, in the long term, I don't think Chad Henne is the answer and a few good games doesn't make him a good quarterback. He was poor in his time at Miami and I can't see him maintaining this form for long. The Bills have had a disappointing year. I expected more from them but they have struggled and the playoffs look to be beyond them. The one positive has been the form of running-back, CJ Spiller. Spiller has had an excellent year and is averaging an outstanding, 6.7 yards per carry. The Jags are 29th in run defense and I wouldn't be surprised if Spiller has another big day.
Prediction - Whilst the Jags have looked better in recent weeks, I think the match ups suit the Bills better and it will be a home win.
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) @ Chicago Bears (8-3)
The Bears host the Seattle Seahawks in a big game for both sides and one that will effect the NFC playoff picture. The Seahawks still have a chance of a wildcard spot and for the Bears it could mean the difference in winning the division or settling for a wildcard. The Seahawks look like losing their starting corner backs, Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman after they violated the NFL's policy on performance enhancing drugs. They are appealing the decision though so both will be available for the trip to Chicago. Both sides have injuries to key players but most are listed as probable so should make it. The teams are remarkably similar in their style and the match ups are quite intriguing. They rank 31st and 32nd in passing and in pass defense they are 3rd and 6th so the game should be decided on the ground. In run defense the Bears are 8th and the Seahawks are 12th. The Bears running game is 10th and the Seahawks are 8th. The match ups are very tight and it should lead to a close game.
Prediction - It's a tough call but the one thing that makes up my mind is the Bears are 5-1 at home and the Seahawks are 1-5 on the road so I will have to side with the Chicago Bears.
Indianapolis Colts (7-4) @ Detroit Lions (4-7)
Way back in September when I wrote my NFL Season Preview ( http://gjsportsblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/nfl-2012-season-preview.html ), I may have been looking at this as a game between a 7-4 team and a 4-7 team but it wouldn't have been the Lions at 4-7. I predicted the Lions would reach the playoffs after a 12-4 year and I had the Colts struggling along to finish 7-9. Sometimes you have to accept you were wrong and in this occasion I have to admit I got these two wrong by quite a bit. The Colts have been very good to reach 7-4 and are doing Coach Pagano proud. They are in pole position in the AFC wildcard race and another two or three wins should secure their place. The Lions have had a disappointing year and have lost a lot of close games. Only one of their seven defeats came by a margin of more than one score but ultimately it doesn't matter how close the games are and it's only wins and losses that count. The Lions lead the league in passing and the Colts are 7th. In pass defense the Lions are 12th and the Colts are 19th. In rushing, the Colts rank 17th and the Lions are 24th. In run defense the Colts are 20th and the Lions are 22nd.
Prediction - This looks like being a very good game and I think the Lions could edge it.
Minnesota Vikings (6-5) @ Green Bay Packers (7-4)
The Vikings and Packers meet in a game that will go a long way in deciding the outcome of the NFC North title. The Bears lead at the moment with an 8-3 record but they still have to play both of these sides so the divisional title is still very much in the balance. These two will also meet again in week 17 so the NFC North race should go right to the wire. Both sides have long injury lists and a few key players could miss out. Clay Matthews has already been ruled out and could be joined by Donald Driver who is listed as questionable. The Vikings injury list includes Percy Harvin, Kyle Rudolph, Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen. Harvin is questionable and the rest are probable. If the Vikings are going to get a result in Green Bay they will need as many of those to play as possible. The Packers will trust in Aaron Rodgers to win them the game in the air. Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and he should be able to put points on the board. The Vikings will aim to win the game on the ground and that plan will rely heavily on Adrian Peterson's availability.
Prediction - This should be one of the best games of the weekend and I think the Packers should be able to pick up the win.
Houston Texans (10-1) @ Tennessee Titans (4-7)
The 10-1, Houston Texans travel to Tennessee to take on the Titan's in an AFC South clash. The Titans look to be done for the year at 4-7 but the Texans can guarantee themselves a playoff spot with a win on the road. The Texans have a long injury list and have looked tired in recent weeks. Once they guarantee the playoffs and seal a bye in the first round of the playoffs I expect to see them rest a few players and come back fresh in the playoffs. The Titans will attempt to win the game on the ground. Chris Johnson had a bad start to the season but he has picked up over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his last six games. The Texans are as close to the complete team as you can get. They have a great defense and a very good running game. Their passing game has a lot of potential too. Matt Schaub is a good quarterback and Andre Johnson is in the elite bracket of receivers.
Prediction - The Texans should get a win here and guarantee themselves at least a wildcard place in the playoffs.
Carolina Panthers (3-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-10)
This game will be very difficult for both sides after the sad news regarding Chiefs linebacker, Jovan Belcher. I'm not going to comment too much on it as I am not well enough informed to know what happened but I am deeply saddened at the tragic loss of two young lives and my heart goes out to the baby who has been left orphaned. On the game, both sides have had bad years and the outcome will only effect the top of the 2013 draft board. Both sides will be looking to next year already and making plans on how they can improve. I wouldn't be surprised if either side changes their coach at the end of the season as both sides have underachieved. The Chiefs will try to run the ball and although the Panthers have a more balanced offense they will most likely favour the run too.
Prediction - I thought the Chiefs might have a chance of winning this one but I can't see their players minds being on the game considering the tragic circumstances and will go for a Panthers win.
San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1) @ St Louis Rams (4-6-1)
These two played out a tie in week 10 in San Francisco and this looks like being another close game. The 49ers are a much stronger side but the Rams matched them in the last game and will no doubt make things difficult for them this week again. The 49ers look to be playoff bound and should be able to clinch the divisional title and possibly even a first round bye if they can maintain their current number two seed. The Rams are 4-6-1 and if they are to have any chance of reaching the playoffs, need to win this one. The teams are quite similar in style and if anything the Rams remind me of a diet version of the 49ers. They want to play the game in the same way but they just don't quite have the right players yet and aren't at the level the 49ers are. They are both run heavy and rely on their defense to win them games. The Rams are still a work in progress though but they have a good blueprint to follow in the San Francisco 49ers.
Prediction - The 49ers will get the win.
New England Patriots (8-3) @ Miami Dolphins (5-6)
The Pats are on the verge of clinching the AFC East and would do so with a win over the Miami Dolphins. The Pats have won the AFC East for the last three years in a row and regardless of whether it's tomorrow or not, they will win it for the fourth time in a row this year. The Pats have come to form at just the right time and after a 3-3 start, they have now own five in a row and are chasing the Baltimore Ravens in the race for a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Technically they are two games behind the Ravens as they lost to them in week 3 so they will face a tough task to get a bye. The Dolphins are currently outside the wildcard spots in the AFC but they are only one win behind the Steelers who are currently in the sixth seed so they are definitely not out of the playoff race. The Dolphins will aim to run the ball on the Pats but this New England team are different to any in recent seasons. The recent sides have all had Tom Brady at quarterback but this side has a running game too. Stevan Ridley has been in excellent form and needs just 61 more yards to reach 1000 rushing yards for the season. The Pats can pass or run and the Dolphins will find it hard to deal with them.
Prediction - The one weakness this Pats team has is their pass defense but I just can't see the Dolphins exploiting it. Pats win.
Arizona Cardinals (4-7) @ New York Jets (4-7)
This will not be one for the purists. Both teams have had poor seasons with little to cheer. The Cardinals had a great start, winning their first four games but they have now lost seven in a row and they will be wondering where that next win is going to come from. The Jets have had a bad year too and look set to miss the playoffs for the second year in a row. The pressure is mounting on Rex Ryan and I think unless he benches Mark Sanchez, he will be unemployed in the not so distant future. The Cardinals have had quarterback issues and once Kevin Kolb got injured, they haven't been the same again. Kolb is far from the best quarterback in the league but he suits the Cardinals offense and he was getting it done for them. The Jets will look to run the ball and let their defense do the rest. Their defense should be good enough to stop an offense that is averaging just 292 yards per game. Neither side are good at defending the run and this game could come down to whoever's rushers have a better day.
Prediction - I don't see the Cardinals slide ending this week, Jets to get the win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) @ Denver Broncos (8-3)
Week 13 is full of big games and this is another one of them. The Broncos can win the division with a victory and the Bucs need the win to keep themselves in the race for an NFC wildcard spot. Denver have won six in a row after a 2-3 start and it's almost as if Peyton Manning has been here all his life. In the first few weeks of the season everyone had an opinion on Peyton Manning. He was finished, his arm was weak etc. The only opinion these same people are giving now is whether or not Manning is worthy of another MVP. The Bucs also have a player who will have to be considered when the awards are being handed out at the end of the year. Doug Martin will surely have to be considered in the race for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Martin has already ran for 1050 yards and 9 touchdowns. He has also caught 29 passes for 332 yards and a touchdown. Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck are the favourites for the title but Martin has been exceptional and will surely merit consideration at the very least. The Broncos are 5th in passing and have a strong defense. They are 5th in pass defense and 9th against the run. The Bucs are 13th in passing and 11th in rushing. Their run defense is 1st in the league but their pass defense is 32nd.
Prediction - Peyton Manning against the 32nd pass defense in the league? The Broncos can't lose this one.
Cleveland Browns (3-8) @ Oakland Raiders (3-8)
The Browns and the Raiders meet in Oakland on Sunday in a game that will have implications for the 2013 NFL draft. These sides won't make the playoffs and at this stage it's purely about planning for the future. The Browns have made a few good moves in recent seasons and have some good young talent on the roster. Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson and Joe Haden are all young players who could have big futures in the game. Another good draft and the Browns could pick up a few extra wins and push towards a playoff spot. The Raiders don't have as bright a future. They have had a habit in recent years of trading away their draft picks and it doesn't bode well for the future. Having said that when they have used their draft picks they haven't usually get that right either. In recent seasons they have made their picks only to see the team behind them pick Aaron Rodgers, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson and CJ Spiller. If the Raiders had picked those four they would be a Superbowl challenger every year. The match ups in this one show that the defenses should be able to get on top but the big difference is Oakland's passing game. The Raiders are 8th in passing and the Browns are 21st in pass defense. If Carson Palmer can keep the ball in the hands of his own receivers, the Raiders could get the win.
Prediction - I'm putting my faith in Carson Palmer and going for a Raiders win.
Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) @ San Diego Chargers (4-7)
The Bengals go to San Diego and know they need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They are just outside the playoffs at the moment based on their head to head record with the Pittsburgh Steelers so they need to keep winning to overtake them. The Chargers got off to a good start, winning three of their first four games but they have gone 1-6 since then and their playoff hopes are hanging on by a thread. At present they are two games behind the wildcard spot but they still have to play the Steelers who currently hold the six seed and their last three games are against the Panthers, the Jets and the Raiders, who are a combined 10-23 for the year so the playoffs are certainly not out of their reach. The Bengals are a better team offensively and are averaging 359 yards compared to the Chargers 324 yards per game. The defenses are both giving up 334 yards per game.
Prediction - The Chargers are better in run defense which won't help them when Andy Dalton starts throwing to AJ Green and I think the Bengals will get the win.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-2)
The Steelers and Ravens meet again just a fortnight after their last meeting and once again the Steelers will be without their franchise quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger. Charlie Batch will be the quarterback and he had a bad game last week, throwing for just 199 yards and 3 interceptions. The Steelers should have Troy Polamalu back from injury which will be a big boost for them. In the last game the Steelers defense done a good job but they didn't get much help from their offense and the Ravens got the win. The Steelers defense is giving up just 257 yards per game and will make things difficult for a Ravens offense which is averaging 349 yards per game. The Steelers have had to change their style in recent weeks since Roethlisberger's injury. They were pass heavy but are having to go with more running plays now. The running game has been hit and miss all year. It started badly but has improved but I don't think it will be at it's full potential until they decide who their first choice rusher is.
Prediction - I can't see the Steelers going to Baltimore without Big Ben and getting the win, Ravens win.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-6)
What are the television companies playing at? One week after two losing teams played on Monday Night Football, Sunday Night Football now has a battle of the two worst teams in the NFC East. I am pretty sure the national television audience does not want to see this game. Of the fourteen games being played today, I wouldn't even have this game in the top ten. I'm an Eagles fan too so imagine how the neutrals must be feeling about it. Dallas won comfortably in Philly in week 10 and the Eagles have got even worse since then. This week they are without Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson who have been their best three players on offense in recent years. The younger players will get more game time and it will help for next season when the Eagles will hopefully have a new coaching setup. The Cowboys need to start winning again as they have a difficult schedule remaining and need to win games like this one. The only way the Eagles win this is if Tony Romo goes into an interception frenzy and hands the win to the Eagles.
Prediction - The Cowboys will get their season back on track with a win.
Despite having one of the worst records in the NFL there is a bit of a feel good factor around the Jacksonville Jaguars at the moment. Since Chad Henne has come in they have took the Houston Texans to overtime and followed it up with a win over the Tennessee Titans. Sometimes a change at quarterback can provide a team with a boost and it has certainly helped the Jags. Having said that, in the long term, I don't think Chad Henne is the answer and a few good games doesn't make him a good quarterback. He was poor in his time at Miami and I can't see him maintaining this form for long. The Bills have had a disappointing year. I expected more from them but they have struggled and the playoffs look to be beyond them. The one positive has been the form of running-back, CJ Spiller. Spiller has had an excellent year and is averaging an outstanding, 6.7 yards per carry. The Jags are 29th in run defense and I wouldn't be surprised if Spiller has another big day.
Prediction - Whilst the Jags have looked better in recent weeks, I think the match ups suit the Bills better and it will be a home win.
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) @ Chicago Bears (8-3)
The Bears host the Seattle Seahawks in a big game for both sides and one that will effect the NFC playoff picture. The Seahawks still have a chance of a wildcard spot and for the Bears it could mean the difference in winning the division or settling for a wildcard. The Seahawks look like losing their starting corner backs, Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman after they violated the NFL's policy on performance enhancing drugs. They are appealing the decision though so both will be available for the trip to Chicago. Both sides have injuries to key players but most are listed as probable so should make it. The teams are remarkably similar in their style and the match ups are quite intriguing. They rank 31st and 32nd in passing and in pass defense they are 3rd and 6th so the game should be decided on the ground. In run defense the Bears are 8th and the Seahawks are 12th. The Bears running game is 10th and the Seahawks are 8th. The match ups are very tight and it should lead to a close game.
Prediction - It's a tough call but the one thing that makes up my mind is the Bears are 5-1 at home and the Seahawks are 1-5 on the road so I will have to side with the Chicago Bears.
Indianapolis Colts (7-4) @ Detroit Lions (4-7)
Way back in September when I wrote my NFL Season Preview ( http://gjsportsblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/nfl-2012-season-preview.html ), I may have been looking at this as a game between a 7-4 team and a 4-7 team but it wouldn't have been the Lions at 4-7. I predicted the Lions would reach the playoffs after a 12-4 year and I had the Colts struggling along to finish 7-9. Sometimes you have to accept you were wrong and in this occasion I have to admit I got these two wrong by quite a bit. The Colts have been very good to reach 7-4 and are doing Coach Pagano proud. They are in pole position in the AFC wildcard race and another two or three wins should secure their place. The Lions have had a disappointing year and have lost a lot of close games. Only one of their seven defeats came by a margin of more than one score but ultimately it doesn't matter how close the games are and it's only wins and losses that count. The Lions lead the league in passing and the Colts are 7th. In pass defense the Lions are 12th and the Colts are 19th. In rushing, the Colts rank 17th and the Lions are 24th. In run defense the Colts are 20th and the Lions are 22nd.
Prediction - This looks like being a very good game and I think the Lions could edge it.
Minnesota Vikings (6-5) @ Green Bay Packers (7-4)
The Vikings and Packers meet in a game that will go a long way in deciding the outcome of the NFC North title. The Bears lead at the moment with an 8-3 record but they still have to play both of these sides so the divisional title is still very much in the balance. These two will also meet again in week 17 so the NFC North race should go right to the wire. Both sides have long injury lists and a few key players could miss out. Clay Matthews has already been ruled out and could be joined by Donald Driver who is listed as questionable. The Vikings injury list includes Percy Harvin, Kyle Rudolph, Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen. Harvin is questionable and the rest are probable. If the Vikings are going to get a result in Green Bay they will need as many of those to play as possible. The Packers will trust in Aaron Rodgers to win them the game in the air. Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and he should be able to put points on the board. The Vikings will aim to win the game on the ground and that plan will rely heavily on Adrian Peterson's availability.
Prediction - This should be one of the best games of the weekend and I think the Packers should be able to pick up the win.
Houston Texans (10-1) @ Tennessee Titans (4-7)
The 10-1, Houston Texans travel to Tennessee to take on the Titan's in an AFC South clash. The Titans look to be done for the year at 4-7 but the Texans can guarantee themselves a playoff spot with a win on the road. The Texans have a long injury list and have looked tired in recent weeks. Once they guarantee the playoffs and seal a bye in the first round of the playoffs I expect to see them rest a few players and come back fresh in the playoffs. The Titans will attempt to win the game on the ground. Chris Johnson had a bad start to the season but he has picked up over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his last six games. The Texans are as close to the complete team as you can get. They have a great defense and a very good running game. Their passing game has a lot of potential too. Matt Schaub is a good quarterback and Andre Johnson is in the elite bracket of receivers.
Prediction - The Texans should get a win here and guarantee themselves at least a wildcard place in the playoffs.
Carolina Panthers (3-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-10)
This game will be very difficult for both sides after the sad news regarding Chiefs linebacker, Jovan Belcher. I'm not going to comment too much on it as I am not well enough informed to know what happened but I am deeply saddened at the tragic loss of two young lives and my heart goes out to the baby who has been left orphaned. On the game, both sides have had bad years and the outcome will only effect the top of the 2013 draft board. Both sides will be looking to next year already and making plans on how they can improve. I wouldn't be surprised if either side changes their coach at the end of the season as both sides have underachieved. The Chiefs will try to run the ball and although the Panthers have a more balanced offense they will most likely favour the run too.
Prediction - I thought the Chiefs might have a chance of winning this one but I can't see their players minds being on the game considering the tragic circumstances and will go for a Panthers win.
San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1) @ St Louis Rams (4-6-1)
These two played out a tie in week 10 in San Francisco and this looks like being another close game. The 49ers are a much stronger side but the Rams matched them in the last game and will no doubt make things difficult for them this week again. The 49ers look to be playoff bound and should be able to clinch the divisional title and possibly even a first round bye if they can maintain their current number two seed. The Rams are 4-6-1 and if they are to have any chance of reaching the playoffs, need to win this one. The teams are quite similar in style and if anything the Rams remind me of a diet version of the 49ers. They want to play the game in the same way but they just don't quite have the right players yet and aren't at the level the 49ers are. They are both run heavy and rely on their defense to win them games. The Rams are still a work in progress though but they have a good blueprint to follow in the San Francisco 49ers.
Prediction - The 49ers will get the win.
New England Patriots (8-3) @ Miami Dolphins (5-6)
The Pats are on the verge of clinching the AFC East and would do so with a win over the Miami Dolphins. The Pats have won the AFC East for the last three years in a row and regardless of whether it's tomorrow or not, they will win it for the fourth time in a row this year. The Pats have come to form at just the right time and after a 3-3 start, they have now own five in a row and are chasing the Baltimore Ravens in the race for a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Technically they are two games behind the Ravens as they lost to them in week 3 so they will face a tough task to get a bye. The Dolphins are currently outside the wildcard spots in the AFC but they are only one win behind the Steelers who are currently in the sixth seed so they are definitely not out of the playoff race. The Dolphins will aim to run the ball on the Pats but this New England team are different to any in recent seasons. The recent sides have all had Tom Brady at quarterback but this side has a running game too. Stevan Ridley has been in excellent form and needs just 61 more yards to reach 1000 rushing yards for the season. The Pats can pass or run and the Dolphins will find it hard to deal with them.
Prediction - The one weakness this Pats team has is their pass defense but I just can't see the Dolphins exploiting it. Pats win.
Arizona Cardinals (4-7) @ New York Jets (4-7)
This will not be one for the purists. Both teams have had poor seasons with little to cheer. The Cardinals had a great start, winning their first four games but they have now lost seven in a row and they will be wondering where that next win is going to come from. The Jets have had a bad year too and look set to miss the playoffs for the second year in a row. The pressure is mounting on Rex Ryan and I think unless he benches Mark Sanchez, he will be unemployed in the not so distant future. The Cardinals have had quarterback issues and once Kevin Kolb got injured, they haven't been the same again. Kolb is far from the best quarterback in the league but he suits the Cardinals offense and he was getting it done for them. The Jets will look to run the ball and let their defense do the rest. Their defense should be good enough to stop an offense that is averaging just 292 yards per game. Neither side are good at defending the run and this game could come down to whoever's rushers have a better day.
Prediction - I don't see the Cardinals slide ending this week, Jets to get the win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) @ Denver Broncos (8-3)
Week 13 is full of big games and this is another one of them. The Broncos can win the division with a victory and the Bucs need the win to keep themselves in the race for an NFC wildcard spot. Denver have won six in a row after a 2-3 start and it's almost as if Peyton Manning has been here all his life. In the first few weeks of the season everyone had an opinion on Peyton Manning. He was finished, his arm was weak etc. The only opinion these same people are giving now is whether or not Manning is worthy of another MVP. The Bucs also have a player who will have to be considered when the awards are being handed out at the end of the year. Doug Martin will surely have to be considered in the race for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Martin has already ran for 1050 yards and 9 touchdowns. He has also caught 29 passes for 332 yards and a touchdown. Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck are the favourites for the title but Martin has been exceptional and will surely merit consideration at the very least. The Broncos are 5th in passing and have a strong defense. They are 5th in pass defense and 9th against the run. The Bucs are 13th in passing and 11th in rushing. Their run defense is 1st in the league but their pass defense is 32nd.
Prediction - Peyton Manning against the 32nd pass defense in the league? The Broncos can't lose this one.
Cleveland Browns (3-8) @ Oakland Raiders (3-8)
The Browns and the Raiders meet in Oakland on Sunday in a game that will have implications for the 2013 NFL draft. These sides won't make the playoffs and at this stage it's purely about planning for the future. The Browns have made a few good moves in recent seasons and have some good young talent on the roster. Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson and Joe Haden are all young players who could have big futures in the game. Another good draft and the Browns could pick up a few extra wins and push towards a playoff spot. The Raiders don't have as bright a future. They have had a habit in recent years of trading away their draft picks and it doesn't bode well for the future. Having said that when they have used their draft picks they haven't usually get that right either. In recent seasons they have made their picks only to see the team behind them pick Aaron Rodgers, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson and CJ Spiller. If the Raiders had picked those four they would be a Superbowl challenger every year. The match ups in this one show that the defenses should be able to get on top but the big difference is Oakland's passing game. The Raiders are 8th in passing and the Browns are 21st in pass defense. If Carson Palmer can keep the ball in the hands of his own receivers, the Raiders could get the win.
Prediction - I'm putting my faith in Carson Palmer and going for a Raiders win.
Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) @ San Diego Chargers (4-7)
The Bengals go to San Diego and know they need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They are just outside the playoffs at the moment based on their head to head record with the Pittsburgh Steelers so they need to keep winning to overtake them. The Chargers got off to a good start, winning three of their first four games but they have gone 1-6 since then and their playoff hopes are hanging on by a thread. At present they are two games behind the wildcard spot but they still have to play the Steelers who currently hold the six seed and their last three games are against the Panthers, the Jets and the Raiders, who are a combined 10-23 for the year so the playoffs are certainly not out of their reach. The Bengals are a better team offensively and are averaging 359 yards compared to the Chargers 324 yards per game. The defenses are both giving up 334 yards per game.
Prediction - The Chargers are better in run defense which won't help them when Andy Dalton starts throwing to AJ Green and I think the Bengals will get the win.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-2)
The Steelers and Ravens meet again just a fortnight after their last meeting and once again the Steelers will be without their franchise quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger. Charlie Batch will be the quarterback and he had a bad game last week, throwing for just 199 yards and 3 interceptions. The Steelers should have Troy Polamalu back from injury which will be a big boost for them. In the last game the Steelers defense done a good job but they didn't get much help from their offense and the Ravens got the win. The Steelers defense is giving up just 257 yards per game and will make things difficult for a Ravens offense which is averaging 349 yards per game. The Steelers have had to change their style in recent weeks since Roethlisberger's injury. They were pass heavy but are having to go with more running plays now. The running game has been hit and miss all year. It started badly but has improved but I don't think it will be at it's full potential until they decide who their first choice rusher is.
Prediction - I can't see the Steelers going to Baltimore without Big Ben and getting the win, Ravens win.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-6)
What are the television companies playing at? One week after two losing teams played on Monday Night Football, Sunday Night Football now has a battle of the two worst teams in the NFC East. I am pretty sure the national television audience does not want to see this game. Of the fourteen games being played today, I wouldn't even have this game in the top ten. I'm an Eagles fan too so imagine how the neutrals must be feeling about it. Dallas won comfortably in Philly in week 10 and the Eagles have got even worse since then. This week they are without Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson who have been their best three players on offense in recent years. The younger players will get more game time and it will help for next season when the Eagles will hopefully have a new coaching setup. The Cowboys need to start winning again as they have a difficult schedule remaining and need to win games like this one. The only way the Eagles win this is if Tony Romo goes into an interception frenzy and hands the win to the Eagles.
Prediction - The Cowboys will get their season back on track with a win.
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