This weeks Monday Night Football should be a cracker and may even be a preview of the AFC Championship game. The Houston Texans are 11-1 and the New England Patriots are 9-3. Both sides have clinched their playoff spot and are now chasing one of the top two seeds and a bye in the first round of the playoffs. As things stand, the Texans are in the number one seed and the Patriots are number three. A New England win could make things very tight. The Texans would be 11-2, just ahead of the Patriots and the Denver Broncos at 10-3.
The Texans have the best record in the NFL but it's hard to judge how good they are as they have had a soft schedule. They have only faced four winning teams but in fairness, they are 3-1 in those games. They are clearly a good side but I fear they may have peaked too soon. Their performance levels have dropped in recent weeks and they were quite fortunate to beat the Jaguars and the Lions.
They have a few very good players on their roster. Arian Foster is an elite running-back and leads the league with 13 rushing touchdowns. He is in the band of players who would be mentioned if asked who the best rusher in the league is. At receiver they have Andre Johnson who is not quite in the conversation of who the best receiver in the league is but he's most definitely in the top 5-10 bracket. At tight end they have Owen Daniels who is right behind Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham as the best in his position in the league. Their quarterback, Matt Schaub is very underrated. He doesn't get as much publicity as a lot of other quarterbacks but he should. Outside the Mannings, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger and Rodgers, I don't think there's anyone better than him. He has a different role to those guys but does his job very well. He has a great running game and doesn't have to throw as often as they do but as far as game managing quarterbacks are concerned, Schaub is in a league of his own. The stars aren't all on offense. J.J. Watt has had 16.5 sacks for the seasons which is only bettered by Aldon Smith of the 49ers. Kareem Jackson is also beginning to make a name for himself at corner back and has intercepted four passes.
The Patriots got off to a poor start and questions were being asked when they were 3-3. From then the Patriots have won six in a row which has clinched yet another AFC East title for Bill Belichick's men. Like the Texans, their record is questionable as they have also only faced four winning teams. The Patriots are 2-2 in those games.
The poor start can possibly be put down to the fact Bill Belichick was trying to change the offense and Wes Welker wasn't really being used. That plan was scrapped and since then Welker has been excellent and leads the Patriots in receptions. He has caught 92 passes for 1064 yards and 4 touchdowns. Rob Gronkowski and Brandon Lloyd have also helped out and are having good years. Tom Brady hasn't shown any signs of slowing down and is having another great year. He has thrown for over 3500 yards, 25 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The four interceptions are a great stat and it is testament to how good Brady is. There is nobody in the NFL who does a better job of looking after the football than Tom Brady.
The one difference between this Patriots team and the ones in recent seasons is running-back, Stevan Ridley. Ridley has had an excellent year and he has already picked up more rushing yards than every Patriots running-back since Antowain Smith in the 2001 season. Ridley should pass Smith as he is only 147 yards behind him with four games remaining. Ridley is only in his second year in the league and he looks like one of the next generation of elite running-backs.
The match ups would suggest this should be a tight game. The Pats are 5th in passing and 8th in rushing. Their defense is 8th against the run and their one weakness is the pass defense and they rank 29th. The Texans are 10th in passing and 6th in rushing. Their defense is 17th against the pass and 2nd against the run. Both teams biggest weakness is pass defense, so it should come down to Brady v Schaub.
Prediction - I think Tom Brady will exploit the Texans pass defense and guide the Patriots to a much needed win.
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