Sunday 9 December 2012

NFL Week 14 Preview and Predictions

St Louis Rams (5-6-1) @ Buffalo Bills (5-7)

The winner of this game will still have a slim chance of making the post season but for the loser, it will be the end of their playoff hopes.  Both sides are in that bracket were they are close to being .500 teams and a run of four wins would give them a chance of the playoffs but 3-1 would most likely not be good enough.  Neither side has a good passing game and the Rams rank 22nd in the NFL.  The Bills are even worse and rank 26th.  The Bills big strength is their running game.  They are averaging 148 yards per game and they rank 4th in the league.  The Rams are also better on the ground and rank 13th.  It looks as though this game will be decided by the rushers.  Of the defenses, St Louis are better against the run but the Bills have improved a lot in recent weeks and should be able to restrict Steven Jackson.

Prediction -
Home advantage and the improvement in the Bills run defense, makes me side with them for the win.


Dallas Cowboys (6-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)
These two are right in the middle of the playoff race and the winners of this game will receive a boost to their hopes of clinching a wildcard spot.  The losers will find themselves in a difficult situation.  They will still be outside the wildcard places and have just three games left to put together a playoff push.  The Cowboys are a pass heavy offense.  They are 2nd in passing and 29th in rushing.  The Bengals have a much more balanced offense.  They are 13th in passing and 14th in rushing.  The running game has improved in recent weeks and BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been very impressive.  He has ran for over 100 yards in three consecutive games and is providing a dual threat to opposing defenses which means defenses can't always concentrate on covering AJ Green.  Defensively there's not much between the sides.  Neither could be described as a shut down defense but they are both strong enough and have no glaring weaknesses.  The game will most likely be high scoring and could turn into a shootout. 

Prediction - I think the Bengals have more options on offense and I trust Dalton more than Tony Romo not to lose the game for his team.  Bengals win.


Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) @ Cleveland Browns (4-8)

The Chiefs got their second win of the season last week in a game that was full of emotion after the tragic events of last Saturday.  The Chiefs players deserve a lot of credit for being able to take the field last Sunday and they some how managed to compose themselves enough to win the game.  This game also sees a few former Browns returning to Cleveland for the first time.  Peyton Hillis, Brady Quinn and Romeo Crennell all return to their former team and it will be interesting to see what kind of reception they get.  I imagine it won't be anything like the reception LeBron James got after his move to Miami.  The Chiefs have a good running game, ranking 5th in the NFL.  The Browns aren't great on offense, ranking 20th in passing and 25th in rushing.  On defense the Chiefs are poor against the run and rank 26th in the league.  The Browns are 16th against the run and should be able to make things tough for Jamaal Charles.

Prediction - Tough one to call and it will come down to whoever takes care of the football.  I'll side with the Browns.


Tennessee Titans (4-8) @ Indianapolis Colts (8-4)

While Robert Griffin III is getting all the headlines, Andrew Luck is quietly going about things in Indianapolis and setting new records for a rookie quarterback.  He has already beat Peyton Manning's record for 300 yard passing games as a rookie and he has more wins than any quarterback who was a number one draft pick.  Luck looks like a special player and although he isn't as exciting as RG3, he looks like the quarterback more likely to win a title.  The Titans won't be in the playoffs this year but I've no doubt they'll still put everything into this game so they might stop the Colts reaching the playoffs too.  The Colts are 5th in passing and 18th in rushing.  The Titans defense is poor and is ranked 25th against the pass and 27th against the run.  The Titans will look to run the ball and Chris Johnson has the potential to win games on his own.  He had a reasonable game the first time round, picking up 117 yards from scrimmage.  The Colts defense will have to contain him and if they do it should be a routine victory.

Prediction -
The Colts should win this one.


Chicago Bears (8-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
This is a huge game in the NFC North and it will have big playoff implications.  The Bears are currently in the wildcard places but they are tied with Green Bay for the lead in the division and the two meet again in week 15.  The Vikings have done well to get themselves into this position but there's not much room for error at this point.  They are one of four teams at 6-6 in the NFC and they trail Seattle (7-5) and Chicago (8-4) for the wildcard spots.  To have any chance of the playoffs they will need to get to 9 wins and even that probably won't be enough.  The Vikings will be looking for Adrian Peterson to have a big day.  Peterson is on pace for a career year which is remarkable considering he tore his ACL and MCL less than a year ago.  He is a medical marvel but he will have to be at his best to pick up yards against this Bears defense. 

Prediction -
I sense a spanner in the works of the NFC North playoff race with a Vikings win here. 


San Diego Chargers (4-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
The Steelers picked up a huge win last weekend without Ben Roethlisberger to keep their playoff hopes alive and now the big man is back, the Steelers can put together a serious run for the AFC title.  They were in great form before the injury and have managed to keep themselves in the race so I expect them to do enough to guarantee themselves a playoff spot.  The Chargers have had yet another bad year and there has been a lot of rumours going around that they will finally fire Norv Turner at the end of the year.  Turner had a good team in San Diego but they have definitely underachieved in his time as head coach.  The Steelers were a top ten passing offense until Roethlisberger's injury and they should be able to get back to that level.  The running game has been hit and miss this season and the Chargers are 7th against the run so the game will be in Roethlisberger's hands.  The Chargers have been poor offensively, averaging just 322 yards per game.  I can't see them breaking out offensively against the Steelers defense so they will have a tough day ahead of them. 

Prediction - The Steelers should win this one.


Philadelphia Eagles (3-9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)

The Philadelphia Eagles take their lack of effort and sub par performances to Tampa Bay this week.  The Bucs are still in with a chance in the NFC but they are running out of time and need to be winning this one.  The wildcard race in the NFC is very tight and one of five teams could clinch that sixth seed.  The Bucs are in with a chance of getting it but with trips to New Orleans and Atlanta still to come, it looks like being a big ask.  As an Eagles fan I am feeling a bit of apathy towards the team this year.  It's hard to put a finger on what happened when it could be so many things.  The season has been a disaster and I'm ready for an off season which will hopefully see a lot of change.  2013 is going to be our year... Truthfully, even I don't believe that.  The way this season has gone, I can't see how the Eagles are going to stop Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson.  The defense can't seem to stop anyone and it's hard to see how they will stop players as good as these pair.

Prediction -
Bucs win.


Baltimore Ravens (9-3) @ Washington Redskins (6-6)

This game looks like being a cracker and could be one of the games of the year.  The Ravens have lost their number two seed in the AFC after last weeks loss to the Steelers.  The Redskins have been a different team after their bye week and sit on the edge of a playoff place.  They went into the bye at 3-6 but have won their last three to reach 6-6.  Robert Griffin III has been excellent and he has been supported by Alfred Morris who is also having a great rookie year.  The Redskins are the leading rushers in the league and the Ravens will find it tough to contain them.  The Ravens are 23rd in run defense and will have to do something different to stop the Redskins on the ground.  The Redskins are 31st in pass defense and the game will hinge on what Joe Flacco shows up. 

Prediction - I think the Redskins will get the win here and continue their push to the playoffs.


Atlanta Falcons (11-1) @ Carolina Panthers (3-9)
The Falcons face a tough trip to Carolina to face the Panthers.  The Panthers very very unlucky in week 4 and it took a field goal with just five seconds left to win the game for the Falcons.  The Falcons defense struggled with the Panthers rushers.  Carolina ran for 199 yards in that game.  In the end Matt Ryan was able to lead the Falcons to a win but I expect they will face another tough game this week.  The Falcons can afford a few slip ups as they are well clear in the NFC and have a 2.5 win lead over the 49ers in second.  This match should be tight and if the Panthers can look after the football, they will have every chance of winning this game against their NFC South rivals.

Prediction - I think the Panthers will get the upset victory here.


New York Jets (5-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
I've always had my suspicions about Rex Ryan.  Some of the pre and post match interviews gave me an idea but it is official, Rex Ryan is completely insane.  Just one week after he showed signs of clear thinking by benching him, he has lost the plot completely and decided to stick with Mark Sanchez.  When the Jets finally decide to cut Sanchez he won't get another team and will go and talk to Jamarcus Russell about their glittering college careers and how they made millions from their brief NFL careers for not really doing anything.  It might be harsh but I just don't think Sanchez is the answer and any success the Jets had in recent years was more to do with the defense.  The match up looks like it will come down to the Jets running game against the Jags run defense.  Shonn Greene has been having a decent year and he could lead the Jets to the win here.

Prediction -
This is a tough one, neither side have had a good year but I think Shonn Greene will be the difference and lead the Jets to the win.


Miami Dolphins (5-7) @ San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1)

These two have had a few good battles over the years as two of the NFL's most celebrated franchises but on this occasion, it looks as though only one of them is a serious contender.  The 49ers currently hold the number two seed in the NFC playoff race and another few wins will guarantee their playoff spot.  I will be watching the performance of Colin Kaepernick very closely.  There has been a bit of a mixed bag from him since he replaced Alex Smith and a lot of people are questioning whether it was a wise move to start a quarterback controversy at a team who had a great chance of a title.  The Dolphins are 5-7 and still have an outside chance of the playoffs but even four wins might not be enough.  Both teams will look to run the ball and both have good run defenses.  It looks as though this game will be low scoring and come down to Frank Gore v Reggie Bush.

Prediction - Gore v Bush?  It has to be Gore for me, 49ers win.


New Orleans Saints (5-7) @ New York Giants (7-5)

This should be another great game and it's must win time for both sides.  The Saints need four wins to give themselves any chance of a playoff spot and the Giants have dragged themselves down into a race for the NFC East with just one win in their last four.  Both teams can be explosive but they can also be terrible too.  The game will be pass heavy with New Orleans 3rd in passing and the Giants are 9th.  Neither side are good on pass defense with the Saints ranked 30th and the Giants ranked 22nd.  This game will be high scoring and could come down to turnovers or who has the last possession.  Eli Manning and Drew Brees are similar in the fact they can both single handedly win games and single handedly lose games.  For me Brees is the better quarterback and that could be the difference here.

Prediction - I think the Saints can win this one.


Arizona Cardinals (4-8) @ Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

The Arizona Cardinals must be close to a record for the worst turnaround in a season in NFL history.  After a 4-0 start they have now lost eight in a row to reach 4-8.  Many teams before them have suffered a drop in form but the Cardinals have took that to a new level.  They almost ended the run last week but once Rex Ryan benched Sanchez, the comeback was on.  The Seahawks will be feeling very good about their chances after last weeks road win over the Chicago Bears.  They now return to Seattle to defend their unbeaten home record against a struggling divisional rival.  The Seahawks have been led in recent weeks by rookie quarterback, Russell Wilson.  Wilson has had a good year, quietly going about his business and getting the job done.  I have criticised him in the past but he is showing good form and if he keeps it up he should take the Seahawks into the playoffs.

Prediction - The Seahawks have to win this one.


Detroit Lions (4-8) @ Green Bay Packers (8-4)

At the start of the season I expected this game to be a battle between two sides looking to win the NFC North.  I was half right and the Packers are right in the middle of the battle to win the division but I was way out with the Detroit Lions.  The Lions have been poor and although there has been some good flashes, they simply haven't got the wins on the board.  Green Bay don't look as good as they did last season but they should make the playoffs and once they get there they are capable of beating any team in the league.  Aaron Rodgers has taken a lot of punishment this season and the Packers need to protect him better so he can do what he does best and win football games.  This game will be pass heavy and should be a high scoring affair. 

Prediction - It looks like a shootout between Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford and for me, there's only one winner.  Green Bay Packers to win.     

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