NFL Week 15 - Preview and Predictions

New York Giants (8-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (11-2)

This game could be the first of two meetings between these sides this year as both look to be playoff bound and they could meet again at some stage in the post season.  They met last year in the playoffs and the Giants picked up a dominant win.  The Giants seem to have the edge over the Falcons and have won the last four in the series.  New York started the season well and looked to be running away with the NFC East but they had a bad run of results which has allowed Washington and Dallas back into the race for the division.  The Falcons have guaranteed themselves a playoff place and regardless of Sunday's results will still hold the NFC's number one seed.  They have a great record but the performances have been poor in recent weeks and they will need to improve if they want to give Matt Ryan his first victory in a playoff game.  Both sides will prioritise the passing game but the Giants have the better backup if they need to resort to their running game.

Prediction - I like this match up for the Giants and think they will get the win.   



Green Bay Packers (9-4) @ Chicago Bears (8-5)
I've been looking forward to this one for a while now.  Recent results have gone against the Bears but they have a chance to get themselves equal with the Packers on Sunday.  A Bears win at Soldier Field would leave both sides at 9-5 with just two games to go.  Both sides should win in week 16 which would mean the Packers would have to go to Minnesota in week 17 and win as long as the Bears win in Detroit.  A Bears win would be the best result for the neutral and would lead to an exciting finale.  If the Packers win it would secure the NFC North and a guaranteed home game in the playoffs.  The Bears would be right in the mix of the wildcard race at 8-6 and would have work to do to secure a playoff place.  Two of the most important players in this game are listed as questionable.  The Bears need Jay Cutler to play but he left last weeks game with a neck injury and might not be available.  In most recent meetings between these teams the best player on the field has been Green Bay linebacker, Clay Matthews.  Matthews has a hamstring injury and is also doubtful for this game.  He would be a big loss for the Packers as he usually spends this game lying on top of Jay Cutler after yet another sack.

Prediction - If Cutler plays and Matthews doesn't the Bears have a chance but I don't think it will work out for the Bears and the Packers will get the win to clinch the division.


Washington Redskins (7-6) @ Cleveland Browns (5-8)
This game will depend on the availability of the Washington Redskins rookie quarterback, Robert Griffin III.  RG3 left Sunday's win over the Ravens late on with a knee injury but thankfully it was nothing too serious and he will be back this season, although there are question marks over his status for this game.  At present he is listed as questionable and it seems like the decision will be left until Sunday.  The Redskins are on a four game winning streakand it has lifted them into the playoff race but they really do need RG3 to be at his best to keep the run going.  The Browns are in the middle of their own winning streak and have won three in a row.  It's too late for the playoffs but I do think there could be a bright future in Cleveland within the next few years.  The Redskins lead the NFL in rushing and should be able to pick up yards against a Browns defense that ranks 18th against the run.  The Redskins are good against the run, ranking 8th in the league but they will have their hands full with Trent Richardson.  The Redskins big weakness is on pass defense and they rank 31st.  The Browns are 18th in passing and can exploit the Redskins in this area. 

Prediction - It's very hard to make a call on this one without knowing RG3's status.  I suspect he is struggling and if he plays, he won't be at full strength so I'm going for a Browns win.


Minnesota Vikings (7-6) @ St Louis Rams (6-6-1)
The Vikings head to St Louis on Sunday needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.  The Vikings have got themselves into this position thanks to a fantastic season from star running-back, Adrian Peterson.  Peterson is just 160 yards away from his career best and with three games remaining he will be looking beyond his personal best and he will be aiming to get as close to the all-time record as he can.  The Rams still have an outside chance of the playoffs but they can settle for no less than three wins.  Even that probably won't be enough but the Rams will at least try to push their rivals as far as they can.  The Vikings are all about the running game and they rank 32nd in passing.  Their Rams defense are 13th against the run so I would expect Adrian Peterson to have another big day.  The Rams will also try to run the ball and will be hoping Steven Jackson can play.  He is listed as probable but will more than likely play.

Prediction - I think Adrian Peterson will lead the Vikings to a big road win and keep their playoff dream alive.


Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) @ Miami Dolphins (5-8)
Miami and Jacksonville meet on Sunday in a game that means little more than local bragging rights and next years draft order.  The Jags have had a bad year and will have an early pick in the 2013 draft.  The Dolphins were in with a chance of the playoffs but they have hit a bad run and are no longer in contention.  They won three in a row which got them to 4-3 for the season but they have won just one of their six games since then and it has killed off their playoff hopes.  Both sides are a bit away from being serious contenders and early draft picks should help in the future.

Prediction - The Dolphins should have enough to pick up the win.    


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) @ New Orleans Saints (5-8)
This game between two NFC South rivals had the potential to be a cracker a few weeks ago but both teams have hit bad form and neither will be in this years playoffs.  Tampa Bay look like a team on the up.  I'm a fan of Josh Freeman and after a slow start, he finally found his form.  He has linked up well with Vincent Jackson in recent weeks, who on his day, is one of the best receivers in the league.  Doug Martin has also had a great year and if he can improve on his rookie season, he will be a huge asset to the Bucs.  This season was always going to be tough for the Saints in the aftermath of Bountygate.  They have a lot of good players though and I expect them to be competitive again next year.  I like the match ups in this one.  The Saints are 2nd in passing and the Bucs are 32nd in pass defense.  The Bucs are 13th in passing and 12th in rushing.  The Saints defense are 30th against the pass and 32nd against the run.  The Bucs are 1st against the run and the Saints are 26th in rushing so it looks like the Saints will have to rely on the pass.

Prediction - This game should be high scoring but I think the Bucs are the all round better team and will win.


Denver Broncos (10-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-4)

A few weeks ago this looked like a must win game for the Broncos to give themselves an outside chance of a top two seed and a bye in the first round of the playoffs.  The Broncos have kept winning and their streak now stands at eight wins in a row.  The Ravens have lost their last two games and it leaves them needing a win here to have any chance of getting the number two seed. In my opinion, the Broncos are the real deal.  They were a good side last year and won a playoff game before eventually falling to the New England Patriots in the divisional round of the playoffs.  They have made a huge upgrade at quarterback by replacing Tim Tebow with Peyton Manning and right now it looks as though it may be the difference between a good team and a potential Superbowl winning team.  The Ravens have not impressed me.  They are 9-4 but six of those nine wins have been by a touchdown or less.  They deserve credit for winning a lot of tight games but they could so easily have gone the other way.  The opponents in those tight wins weren't always good sides either, with the Chiefs, the Browns and the Chargers all taking them the distance. 

Prediction - The Broncos have a good defense and should find it easier to stop the Ravens than the Ravens will find it to stop Peyton Manning and the Broncos passing game.  Denver will win this one.


Indianapolis Colts (9-4) @ Houston Texans (11-2)

This game will go a long way in deciding who will win the AFC South and guarantee themselves at least one home playoff game.  A Texans win on Sunday would guarantee the division and would take them a step closer to the AFC's number one seed.  The Colts have had a great year and I don't think there was many people outside Indianapolis who predicted they would be 9-4 at this stage of the season.  The Colts have embraced new quarterback, Andrew Luck and the team seem to have a great spirit about them which I imagine has come about due to Coach Pagano's illness.  Thankfully Pagano is on the mend and he will be delighted that the Colts are doing him proud.  The Texans are 11-2 for the year but their form has dropped in recent weeks.  They started off very well and were blowing out everything in front of them but they haven't looked as good since their big win over Baltimore in week 7.  If the Texans rediscover their early season form they are Superbowl contenders, if not, then they will not get past the Patriots or Broncos in the AFC. 

Prediction - The Texans will clinch the division with a win over the Colts.     


Seattle Seahawks (8-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-8)
The Seahawks head to Toronto to face the Buffalo Bills who look like missing out on the playoffs for the 13th year in a row.  The Seahawks on the other hand have a great chance of a playoff place and might still be able to win the division.  A win here and a 49ers defeat in New England would leave the Seahawks and the 49ers on nine wins each.  The teams meet in Seattle next week and the NFC West would be very much up for grabs.  The Seahawks have one of the best defenses in the league and their biggest challenge on Sunday will be stopping the Bills running game.  The Bills are 6th in rushing and could be even higher if they decided to go with CJ Spiller instead of splitting carries between him and Fred Jackson.  Spiller has 6.6 yards per carry and Jackson has 3.8 yards per carry.  The Bills defence will also have to deal with a good running game.  The Seahawks are 4th in rushing and Marshawn Lynch has been having a great year.  He has ran for 1266 yards this season which is 2nd in the league. 

Prediction - The Seahawks will take another step closer to the playoffs with a win in Toronto.


Detroit Lions (4-9) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-9)
Arizona have set an NFL record by becoming the first team to lose nine games in a row after a 4-0 start to the season.  Things don't look like improving either if last weeks 58-0 defeat in Seattle is anything to go by.  Quarterback, Kevin Kolb has been placed on injured reserve and I would be surprised if they win any of their remaining games.  The Lions have been a huge disappointment.  They have drafted well in recent years and I thought this would be the year that they moved up the next level and became a serious competitor in the NFC.  It hasn't materialised though and they are heading towards another top ten draft pick.  The Cardinals offense is very poor and the only thing they do well is turnovers.  The Lions lead the NFL in passing but when required Mikel Leshoure is capable of carrying the offense.  He might have to do it this week as the Cards are 5th in pass defense and 30th in run defense so it may be in the Lions best interests to try to win this one on the ground.

Prediction - The Lions will extend Arizona's misery to ten defeats in a row.     


Carolina Panthers (4-9) @ San Diego Chargers (5-8)
Neither of these teams will be in the playoffs this year but they have both shown glimpses of being good teams.  They have both lacked the consistency required to be a playoff contender though.  The Panthers have had good wins against potential playoff teams, like Washington and Atlanta but defeats to teams like Kansas City has cost them.  The Chargers had a big win last week over the Steelers but the damage had already been done with the seven defeats in eight games that went before it.  I expect this to be Norv Turner's last year in charge and if the rumours are true, Andy Reid could be heading to San Diego next year.

Prediction - I think the Chargers are a better team if both play to their potential and they will win this one.      


Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-6)
The Steelers and the Cowboys face off in Dallas on Sunday in a game both sides need to win.  Both sides are just outside the playoffs as things stand and can't afford many slip ups if they are to push on and clinch a spot in the post season.  The Steelers were in the sixth seed in the AFC until the Bengals beat the Eagles in Philadelphia on Thursday.  A win would put them back in a playoff spot ahead of a meeting between the two in Pittsburgh next week.  The Cowboys are 7-6 and just a game behind the Giants in the NFC East.  They are also just one win behind the Bears and Seahawks in the wildcard race.  Both sides will look to pass the ball, with the Cowboys ranked 3rd and the Steelers ranked 11th.  Pittsburgh's numbers have suffered a little due to Ben Roethlisberger's injury and they should be higher.  Both sides also have decent pass defenses, with the Steelers the best in the league and the Cowboys ranked 10th.  It promises to be a tight game and neither side will find it easy to get the win. 

Prediction - I trust Roethlisberger more than I trust Tony Romo so I will side with the Steelers.  


Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) @ Oakland Raiders (3-10)
This battle between the AFC West's weakest teams will play a big part in deciding the order of the 2013 draft.  These two will be picking early and as things stand, they would both be picking in the top three.  Obviously one of them will pick up a win on Sunday which could change the order but I can't see either of them winning their week 16 or week 17 fixtures so they should still be in the first few picks.  I expect the Chiefs to have a good day on the ground.  They rank 5th in rushing and the Raiders are 26th on the ground.  If the Chiefs can take care of the ball, there's no reason why they can't pick up a win against an Oakland team who have been struggling this year.  The Chiefs have the worst record in the league but I don't think they are the worst team in the league.  Their numbers are pretty good in all areas except turnovers.  They have turned the ball over 33 times this year and their defense has only forced 11 turnovers so their differential stands at -22 which is tied with the Eagles as the worst in the league.

Prediction - I'm going to take a punt on the Chiefs having a turnover free day and getting the win.   


San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) @ New England Patriots (10-3)

The television companies haven't always got it right this year but on this occasion they are bang on the money.  This game will be shown nationally on Sunday Night Football and it looks like being an absolute cracker.  These two are polar opposites in terms of style.  Sometimes it ruins games but on this occasion I think it will make it one not to be missed.  The Pats are an explosive offense and although they will try to pass first, they can also give the ball to Stevan Ridley and attack on the ground.  The 49ers are a run first offense and rank 2nd in the league behind the Washington Redskins.  Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter were doing a good job.  Hunter has since gone down with a bad ankle sprain and the 49ers seem to have changed styles in recent weeks.  Since Alex Smith got injured against the Rams in week 10, they have gone with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback.  He has had his good moments but I don't think he is the man for the job.  I believe if it's not broke, don't fix it.  The 49ers offense was fine but Kaepernick is a mobile quarterback and the style of play has changed because of it.  The 49ers are still run heavy but Kaepernick is taking carries away from Frank Gore and his passing isn't as good as Alex Smith's so in my opinion, the 49ers are worse off because of it.

Prediction - The Patriots will get another comfortable win over a potential Superbowl rival.  

Thursday Night Football - Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-9)

 

Thursday Night Football see's the Cincinnati Bengals head to Philadelphia to face the Eagles.  The Bengals need a win to keep themselves in the playoff race.  They are level with the Steelers at 7-6 and the likely hood is one of them will enter the playoffs as the AFC's sixth seed.  Philadelphia have had a bad year and are out of the playoffs already but the players will be on a high after picking up a good win in Tampa Bay on Sunday. 

The Bengals have had a very up and down year.  They started well, winning three of their first four games.  They followed that 3-1 start with four straight defeats and just when they looked to be done for the year, they went on a four game winning streak.  That got them to 7-5 and right back in the playoff hunt.  They suffered a last gasp defeat to the Cowboys on Sunday to stand at 7-6 as things stand. 

The main reason for the success has been the form of receiver, AJ Green.  Green is an elite receiver and has been having a great year.  He has caught 79 passes for 1151 yards and 10 touchdowns.  His 10 touchdown catches leads the NFL.  Green has linked up perfectly with quarterback, Andy Dalton.  Both were drafted last year and they have developed a great understanding and the Bengals are reaping the rewards.  I liked Dalton in college and personally believe he was underrated.  Dalton was the fifth quarterback to be taken in the 2011 draft, coming behind Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder.  I would be fairly confident in saying that Andy Dalton will go on to have a better NFL career than any of those. 

Another reason for the success, particularly the recent four game winning streak, has been the form of BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  Green-Ellis has 974 rushing yards this season and should pass 1000 yards for the season in tonight's game.  He started off slowly but has picked up in recent weeks with four straight games of at least 100 yards from scrimmage.  The Bengals are no slouches on defense either and have restricted their opponents to less than twenty points on six occasions.  They are a franchise on the up and as their young players continue to improve, they should be competing in the AFC for the next few years.

As I've already said the Eagles have been having a bad year.  It's difficult to put a finger on what has gone wrong but it has been an absolute disgrace of a season.  It began ok with a 3-1 start but two tight losses before the bye week left the Eagles at 3-3.  I wasn't happy with the loss against the Lions but other than, we were more or less where I expected us to be.  I was particularly pleased with the wins over the Ravens and the Giants.  The biggest problem was our offense.  We were averaging just 17 points per game which is nowhere near good enough. 

Andy Reid had a look at things on the bye week and in his wisdom decided that the defensive coordinator, Juan Castillo, was the problem and he would have to go.  Personally, I would have said the defense was the only thing that was working.  They were conceding points late in the game but I would put that down to tiredness as they were spending 35-40 minutes per game on the field due to the failures of the incompetent offense.  Up to that point the defense was conceding 20.83 points per game.  In the seven games since then we have conceded at least 21 points in every game.  In those seven game we are conceding an average of 30.86 points per game.  Personally I would say that's enough evidence to show that Andy Reid doesn't have a clue what he's doing. 

The offense have turned a bit of a corner but even that has nothing to do with Andy Reid.  He was forced to change things when Michael Vick got injured and his replacement, Nick Foles has began to get a bit more out of the offense.  He had a slow start but has been improving gradually and as far as I'm concerned, he's the future of the Philadelphia Eagles.  I've made no secret of the fact that I'm not a fan of Andy Reid and believe we are at the end of his time in Philadelphia.  His position is untenable and it is time for the franchise to go in a different direction.  I fully believe he will leave once the season is over and I look forward to finding out who the new head coach will be.

The match ups in this game are extremely tight.  The teams are similarly linked in every category and there are no obvious areas were either side will have an advantage.  The biggest difference between these sides has been the turnover differential.  The Bengals are sitting at 0, with 21 takeaways and 21 giveaways.  The Eagles however are -19, with 29 giveaways and just 10 takeaways.  It underlines the importance of taking care of the football in the NFL and those turnovers are the difference in a potential playoff team and an early draft pick.

Prediction - I actually believe the Eagles will win this one.  Andy Reid is good at two things, failure and winning games when you are playing for nothing other than draft picks.