Sunday 25 November 2012

NFL Preview - Week 12

Minnesota Vikings (6-4) @ Chicago Bears (7-3)

This is a huge game in the NFC North between two teams who are now in the chasing pack.  Both have been ahead of the Green Bay Packers and both now trail them in the race to be divisional winners.  The Bears have lost their last two and need to get a win to get their season back on track.  The Vikings are coming off their bye and got a vital win over the Lions in their last game.  They had lost two in a row and were back to 5-4 after a 5-2 start.  They got the win and are right in the race for a playoff spot at 6-4.  The match ups suggest that both teams are better at running the ball.  The passing games are poor, with the Bears 31st in passing and the Vikings 30th.  Of the two running games, Minnesota's is better.  The Vikings are 3rd in rushing and the Bears are 10th.  Adrian Peterson has been excellent this season and will be a huge threat to the Bears.  The Bears defense are better against the run and rank 6th.  The Vikings run defense is 13th. 

Prediction -
This game looks tight and the match ups suggest it could go either way.  I wouldn't be surprised to see either side win but I will side with home advantage and go for the Bears. 


Oakland Raiders (3-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)
The Raiders head to Cincinnati on a three game losing streak.  At 3-7 they look done for the season and are playing for pride.  The Bengals are still alive at 5-5 and have four winnable games coming up before they finish with back to back games against divisional rivals, Pittsburgh and Baltimore.  Both sides are better passing the ball.  Oakland rank 7th and Cincinnati are 11th.  The Bengals are the better defense though and should be able to cope better with the Raiders offense.  This game looks perfect for AJ Green to build on his good season so far. 

Prediction -
The Bengals will get it done and reach 6-5.


Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) @ Cleveland Browns (2-8)


The Steelers travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns without their two most iconic players, Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu.  The backup quarterback is also out and the Steelers will line up with Charlie Batch taking the snaps.  Batch is 37 years old now and I can't see him having a good game so the Steelers will have to rely on their running game.  The Browns are 23rd in run defense so the Steelers should be able to get the chains moving.  The Browns haven't been great offensively, picking up just 312 yards per game.  The Steelers defense are giving up just 259 yards per game and even with the injuries the Steelers should still have enough to win. 

Prediction -
Steelers win. 


Buffalo Bills (4-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-4)
This is a huge game for both sides and in particular the Bills.  The Bills are clinging in there at 4-6 and have a soft schedule remaining.  After the Colts the only team with a winning record they have to play is the Seahawks.  If they can win out or go 5-1 they could reach the playoffs.  I haven 't saw much from them to suggest they are capable of it but the chance is still there.  The Colts are much better placed at 6-4 to make a run at the playoffs and apart from their two divisional games against the Texans, they have a very winnable
schedule.  The match ups are interesting in this one.  The Colts are 8th in passing and 14th in rushing.  The Bills defense are 18th against the pass and 30th against the run.  The Bills offense are 23rd in passing and 8th in rushing.  The Colts defense are 20th in both passing and rushing.  The Bills can run the ball but the Colts can win the game in the air or on the ground. 

Prediction -
The Colts should get the win here. 


Denver Broncos (7-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-9)
The Broncos go to Kansas City on a five game winning streak and they will be expecting to extend that against the 1-9 Chiefs.  The Broncos look playoff bound and in their current form they will be a tough game for anyone.  The only race the Chiefs are in is for the number one draft pick.  The Chiefs are a running team and rank 4th in rushing.  The Broncos are 4th in run defense and should be able to contain the Chiefs.  The Broncos strength is the passing game and they rank 6th in the NFL.  The Chiefs are good in pass defense and rank 6th.  The biggest issue is the Chiefs taking care of the ball.  If they can avoid turnovers, they can win this but if they turn the ball over they will lose comfortably.

Prediction -
The Broncos defense will force turnovers and lead them to a win.


Seattle Seahawks (6-4) @ Miami Dolphins (4-6)
The Seahawks are 6-4 and need to be winning games like this one if they are to reach the playoffs.  The Dolphins got themselves to 4-3 but they have lost three in a row to leave their playoff hopes clinging by a thread.  They have a tough schedule though and I can't see them getting the wins they need.  The Dolphins aren't great on offense and rank 24th in passing and 21st in rushing.  The Seahawks are a running offense and rank 7th in rushing.  The Dolphins had started the year well in run defense but they have struggled in recent weeks and will struggle to cope with Marshawn Lynch. 

Prediction - The Seahawks should get the win.


Atlanta Falcons (9-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)
This looks like being one of the  best games of the weekend with these two being in the race to reach the playoffs.  The Falcons are three games clear in the NFC South but they have a tough schedule remaining and haven't won the division yet.  They still have to play the Bucs twice, the Saints and the Giants.  Their two weaker opponents are both on the road, against the Panthers and the Lions.  The Bucs have now won four in a row and have really turned their season around after a 2-4 start.  They also have a tough schedule and every game from now on will be massive for them.  The Falcons are a pass heavy offense and rank 4th in passing.  The Bucs will struggle with their passing game as their pass defense is 29th in the league.  The Bucs are a more balanced offense and rank 14th in passing and 9th in rushing.  The Falcons defense are 7th in pass defense but 25th against the run.  The Bucs need to get the ball into Doug Martin's hands and if they do, he might just win them the game. 

Prediction -
This game is the hardest of the weekend to predict and I could make a strong case for either side to win.  If pushed to decide, I'll go with the Falcons. 


Tennessee Titans (4-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)
Neither of these teams look to be in with a chance of reaching the playoffs. The Titans aren't mathematically out but at 4-6 with a difficult schedule remaining, I can't see them getting there.  The Jags are in the race for an early pick in next years draft and I can't see them winning many more games.  These are two poor sides and I can't see this being a great game.

Prediction - Chris Johnson could potentially be the star here and guide his Titans to the win. 


Baltimore Ravens (8-2) @ San Diego Chargers (4-6)


The Ravens picked up a big win last week over the Steelers to put themselves in pole position to win the AFC North.  If the Chargers are to make a playoff run they will have to do it via the wildcard as they look to be too far behind the Broncos in the division.  The Ravens are doing enough to win each week without looking impressive.  The biggest challenge for them will be if they can go up the gears come playoff time or whether they are only capable of playing at a certain level.

Prediction -
The Ravens will find a way to get the win. 


San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1) @ New Orleans Saints (5-5)
This game should play a big part in the NFC side of the playoffs.  The 49ers should be in the playoffs but the Seahawks are pushing them in the race for the NFC West so they can't afford many defeats or they will have to go in as a wildcard.  The Saints have been great in recent weeks.  Many people wrote them off after their 0-4 start but they are now back at .500 and in the race for a playoff place.  The 49ers still haven't confirmed who will start at quarterback but it's likely they will concentrate on their running game anyway.

Prediction -
The 49ers are one of the best defenses in the league and the Saints are the worst.  I'll take defense and go with a 49ers win.


St Louis Rams (3-6-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-6)

The last time one of these two won a game was in week 5 when the Rams beat the Cards.  Neither has won since but at least one side should be celebrating a win on Sunday, unless of course the Rams get their second tie of the year.  I can't see either side winning too many after tonight and both should be heading for top ten draft picks in 2013.

Prediction -
I think this will be another tight game and the Rams might just nick it if Steven Jackson has a good game.


Green Bay Packers (7-3) @ New York Giants (6-4)
The Giants started the season well and looked like a playoff team at 6-2.  Since then they have lost two and looked poor.  The Packers have come a long way since their 2-3 start and now lead the NFC North and come into this game with a lot of momentum.  Both sides rely heavily on their passing games, with the Giants ranked 9th and the Packers ranked 12th.  Neither side are particularly impressive in pass defense with the Giants ranked 25th and the Packers ranked 21st.  I expect Aaron Rodgers to do well but I have my concerns over Eli Manning.  He has looked very poor in recent games.  I'm not sure if it's tiredness or an injury but we will find out tonight whether the bye week has allowed him to sort things out. 

Prediction -
Until I know what is wrong with Eli I will side with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.

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