Thursday 29 November 2012

Thursday Night Football - New Orleans Saints (5-6) @ Atlanta Falcons (10-1)

This weeks Thursday Night Football sees a huge NFC South clash between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons.  The game could have huge playoff implications and on paper, it looks like the best Thursday night game this year.

The Saints are 5-6 and need the win to keep themselves in with a chance of a playoff spot.  The Falcons are 10-1 and need the win to maintain their number one seed in the NFC.  Add the fact that the Falcons only defeat of the season came in New Orleans and it looks like we could have a cracker on our hands.

The Saints had a terrible start to the season but they have fought back from 0-4 and won five of their last seven games.  At 5-6 the Saints are still well and truly alive coming into week 13 and although the team may have had higher expectations at the start of the year, after week 4 they would have been delighted with that.

The Saints strength is their passing game and in Drew Brees they have a truly elite quarterback.  He has the Superbowl ring and there's not many better quarterbacks in the NFL.  Brees has a great record in Atlanta since moving to the Saints, winning on five of his six visits.  Brees will undoubtedly lead the passing game and keep the game competitive but he will need help from his team mates.  The running game hasn't been good this year and almost everything positive on offense has been passing.  The defense has been very poor and they have given up more yards than any other team in the league.  The defense needs to step it up tonight as Atlanta have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.

The Falcons are also a pass heavy offense and are also led by a top class quarterback.  Matt Ryan has grown in stature in recent seasons and he looks like he has taken the required steps to join Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  Ryan is helped by the quality of receivers he has to work with.  Roddy White, Julio Jones and tight end, Tony Gonzalez are all great targets and Ryan has been making the most of this.  The running game has been hit and miss this season and starter, Michael Turner is picking up just 3.5 yards per carry.  It might be time for the Falcons to increase the workload of his backup, Jacquizz Rodgers.  Rodgers is averaging 3.9 yards per carry and has been making an impact in recent weeks.

This game looks like it has all the makings of a shootout and could well be decided on who has the last possession.  Both offenses are better than their opponents defense and it should make for a high scoring game.  The Saints need the win more as their playoff hopes are in the balance.  The Falcons could afford to lose and still be at least one game clear as the top seeds in the NFC but they will be desperate to pick up a win over this Saints team.  The Falcons have only one of their last eight games against the Saints and will be hurting that it was the Saints who took their unbeaten start to the season.  The Falcons will believe that they are a better team than the Saints and now is the time for them to prove it on the field.  A win over the Saints would be a huge mental hurdle for the Falcons to get over and it would give them a belief that they've near really had in the playoffs in the Matt Ryan era.

Prediction -
Tonight's the night that the Falcons show the league that they are the best team in the NFC South by beating the Saints for the first time since September 2010.

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