Sunday 30 September 2012

NFL Week 4 - Preview

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are looking for their 5th consecutive victory over the Panthers, when the teams go head to head today.  They have had a good start, winning all 3 games.  The Falcons have a great passing game.  Matt Ryan has had a good start and he has 3 top class receivers to throw too.  Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are all great options.  The Falcons haven't got their running game going as well as they'd like to, but Michael Turner is a good rusher and the Panthers have struggled against the run, so Turner should have a good day.  The Panthers haven't looked great so far and are 1-2.  A loss today would leave them 3 games behind in the division, so a win is a must if they have playoff aspirations.  The running game has been quite poor so far when you consider the talent at their disposal.  Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert are all good rushers.  Jonathan Stewart could also be back for this game.  The Falcons rank 24th against the run so if the Panthers are to win, they need to get their running game going.

Prediction -
The Falcons to keep their winning run going.


New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
This is a huge game in the battle for the AFC East.  The Pats have started 1-2 and the Bills are 2-1.  A Bills win today would put them 2 games ahead of New England.  It's very early in the season but it would be a great place for the Bills to find themselves, a quarter of the way into the season.  The Pats have lost their two games by a combined total of 3 points but regardless of how close they were, they still have 2 losses on their record.  On paper, the Pats look quite good, certainly on offense.  They rank 9th in passing and 11th in rushing.  It's not brilliant but it's good for a team sitting at 1-2.  The Pats had a bad year defensively last year but they have improved on that last year.  They are doing particularly well against the run, ranking 7th.  Their pass defense could be improved on though, ranking 24th.  The Bills have relied heavily on their running game, with CJ Spiller being the star man.  Spiller came in as a replacement for the injured, Fred Jackson.  Spiller has taken his chance but he picked up an injury last week and is listed as questionable.  Jackson is also listed as questionable.  If the Bills are to win this game, they need their running game to be at full strength and unfortunately for them it doesn't look like it is.  I just can't see Ryan Fitzpatrick winning this game for the Bills against an angry Pats and with a banged up rushing attack, against an improved Pats defense, there's only going to be one winner.

Prediction -
New England to blow away the cobwebs and get the win.


Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

Another big divisional game were a team,expected to have a good year find themselves at 1-2 against a "lesser" rival at 2-1.  The Vikings have been surprisingly good so far.  Christian Ponder has been particularly impressive, throwing 4 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions.  If I'm honest, Ponder is a quarterback who I didn't expect to do well, but he has looked good so far.  Adrian Peterson is also helping out by putting up some respectable numbers, since returning from a serious injury.  The Lions rank top in passing yards but Matt Stafford has been a bit sloppy and has more interceptions, than touchdowns.  He picked up an injury last week but it looks as though he will start this week.  The stats show these teams are quite close, with the only real difference being passing yards but if Stafford can't stop throwing interceptions then you can have as many long drives as you like but unless you keep the ball away from the defense, then you won't win games.

Prediction -
At the start of the year I would have predicted a Lions blowout.  I still think the Lions will win but I think the Vikings will run them close. 


San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Another two divisional rivals, who rank quite similarly and it looks like making this game an intriguing match up.  The Chargers have had the better start but they suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of the Falcons last week.  The Chiefs picked up their first win of the season with Jamaal Charles running all over the Saints.  The Chiefs are ranked as the number 1 rushing team this year but the Chargers are ranked as 4th in run defense, so it looks as though the winner of that battle will grab a vital edge in the game.  The Kansas offense has been quite impressive so far, averaging 442 yards per game.  Home advantage seems to be a key factor in this game, with the last 5 all being won by the home team. 

Prediction -
The AFC West's momentum shift to continue this week with a Chiefs win.


Seattle Seahawks @ St Louis Rams


Seattle are one of the best defenses in the league.  On offense, they rank 32nd in passing but 6th in rushing.  They have the look of the old classic, strong defense and strong running game.  Nowadays the NFL is a passing league so it's questionable how far that style will take you but for old school football fans, this Seahawks teams are a breath of fresh air.  The Rams aren't much better at passing the ball but their running game and defense are considerably worse.  The Rams could be without their key running-back, Steven Jackson for this game.  He is listed as questionable with a groin injury.  Home advantage will obviously give the Rams a bit of an edge but I am struggling to see how else they can get an advantage in the game.  The Seahawks defense should be able to stifle this Rams offense and then the games in the hands of Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. 

Prediction -
The Seahawks should be able to win this one.


San Francisco 49ers @ New York Jets


This is a huge game for the 49ers after last weeks loss in Minnesota.  The 49ers had a bad day and slipped to 2-1.  Many people thought the NFC West was a one horse race before the season started, myself included.  The Cardinals (3-0) and the Seahawks (2-1) look like decent teams and it looks as though the division has been underrated.  The Jets are 2-1 and quite how they beat the Dolphins last week is a mystery.  In my opinion, Mark Sanchez is simply not good enough and his pass completion for the season so far sits at just over 50%.  The Jets defense took a huge hit last week, losing Darrelle Revis with a torn ACL.  He hasn't been placed on Injured Reserve yet but surely his season is done.  Rex Ryan is the master of defensive schemes and he needs to come up with something special to make up for the loss of Revis.  The 49ers are one of the NFL's best teams and the key to this game will be putting the ball in Frank Gore's hands and letting him run against the 28th ranked, run defense in the league.

Prediction -
The 49ers find a way to get it done against a poor Jets side.


Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
The Texans look like one of the best teams in the NFL at the moment and this is a great match up for them.  The Titans have a poor defense, ranking 30th against the pass and 29th against the run.  Houston are 5th at running the ball and they have the tools to throw the ball if they need to.  The Titans are 1-2 after winning last week against the Lions in a thriller.  Despite that win, the Titans will still be concerned about the form of running-back, Chris Johnson.  Johnson is averaging just 1.4 yards per carry and the last thing he needs to see is the Texans defense.  The Texans have 3 tough battles ahead of them before their bye week, so they will be looking to get this game won early, so they can look to the tougher battles that lie ahead. 

Prediction -
The Texans in a blowout. 


Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Another divisional battle between two AFC West teams.  These two have both started 1-2 and will be looking to get back to .500 with a win today.  The Raiders have a great record in Denver and have won four straight.  Oakland have done well when passing the ball but have struggled with their running game.  Darren McFadden is listed as probable for the Raiders so even if he does play it's hard to see him making a big impact as he's obviously not at 100%.  Peyton Manning is facing some questions about his arm strength after his injury last year.  Manning has been far from his best since moving to Denver and it's hard to judge whether he is struggling physically or whether he is still struggling to settle into a new team after a year of injury.  The coming weeks will tell a story but in my experience, it is never a good idea to write off a Manning.

Prediction -
I think the Broncos end the Raiders recent dominance at Mile High with a win. 


Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are getting it done right now and sit at 3-0 after good wins over the Pats and Eagles in the last 2 weeks.  Kevin Kolb has done well since coming in for the injured John Skelton and he has 4 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions.  The Cardinals defense have been doing well and have led the team to a great start.  The Dolphins are struggling with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback.  In his 3 games, Tannehill has just 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions.  The Dolphins have been led by Reggie Bush's rushing abilities.  He has been fantastic so far but a knee injury sees him listed as questionable, for this game.  It's hard to see what the Dolphins will do if Bush misses this game.  Arizona is a tough place to play but with a rookie quarterback in bad form and without your star running-back, it gets a whole lot tougher. 

Prediction -
Unbelievably, the Cards will go 4-0 with a win here.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Bengals are quite possibly, the best team to watch in the NFL.  AJ Green is an excellent receiver and he has managed to catch almost one third of quarterback, Andy Dalton's completed passes.  The Bengals have a lot of young talent and look like a team who are going in the right direction and could be genuine Superbowl contenders within a few years.  The Jags on the other hand are the opposite.  They're not a great team to watch and they're not really in the business of getting things done, on the field either.  Blaine Gabbert has done ok this year when called upon.  He has 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions but he will have to improve on his completion percentage.  He is currently just over 50% and that's not good enough.  Maurice Jones-Drew is improving week by week and carries most of the Jags hopes on his shoulders. 

Prediction -
The explosive Bengals to have too much for the Jags.


New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
At the start of the season there would have been quite a few people looking at this as a possible NFC Championship game.  The Packers are 1-2 but I would expect them to come good and be a serious contender in the NFC.  The Saints on the other hand, look more likely to be a contender for the number 1 draft pick.  Drew Brees is putting up some big yards but he has 5 interceptions to go with his 7 touchdowns.  The rushing game hasn't been great either but the biggest problem is the defense.  Right now, it look as though their run defense is there, purely for decoration.  They are giving up over 200 yards a game on the ground.  The teams they have played are 0-6 in the other games they've played this year.  It's not been a difficult schedule and the Packers are the best team they'll have faced so far, so it looks like 0-4 is beckoning.  The Packers have their own issues right now.  They aren't protecting Aaron Rodgers and it's hurting them.  Rodgers has been excellent in the past two seasons but now that he is coming under pressure, he is struggling to make an impact.  He isn't getting a lot of support from his running game either, with leading rusher, Cedric Benson, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry.

Prediction -
The Packers will win this one easily against a bad Saints team.


Washington Redskins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The match ups in this game are fantastic and it looks like being an interesting game.  These two rank 31st (Redskins) and 32nd (Bucs) in pass defense.  The Bucs are 30th in passing and the Redskins are 21st.  The Redskins rank 2nd in rushing but the Bucs rank 1st in run defense.  The Bucs are 21st in rushing and the Redskins are 9th in run defense.  I don't think the Bucs being 30th in passing is entirely accurate.  If they put the ball in Josh Freeman's hands, he is good enough to win them the game.  He has a few good receivers and I think his form will pick up in the coming weeks.  RG3 has shown signs that he can be a decent passer too, so it might be in his best interest to try to spend more time in the pocket this week.  If he can avoid the sacks that hurt the Redskins last week, then he can do enough to lead his side to victory.

Prediction - I think this is a tough game to call but I have a suspicion that the Redskins will edge it.


New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have turned the ball over on 12 occasions in their 3 games so far.  4 turnovers a game is a ridiculous figure and it is simply not good enough.  Turnovers aside the Eagles have been playing well but all the good work is being undone by silly mistakes.  The Giants have bounced back from a bad start, winning their last 2 games.  Eli Manning has thrown for over 1000 yards and the Giants are looking dangerous.  The Eagles have a great record in this game, winning 7 of the last 8 but there looks to be a considerable gap between the sides right now and it's the Giants who look like the dominant force in the NFC East.   

Prediction -
The Giants to pick up the win.


Bye Weeks -
Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers


Monday Night Football - Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys -
I will do an extended preview of this game tomorrow.

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