Friday 21 September 2012

NFL - WEEK THREE PREVIEW

St Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears
The Rams had a good win last week over the Redskins but will face a tougher task in Chicago. I am struggling to see were the Rams are going to score in this game. Running-back, Steven Jackson, could miss the game and the Bears are doing well against the run anyway. The Bears D also done a good job on Aaron Rodgers and although Sam Bradford had a good game last week, I can't see him doing as well against the Bears. The Bears lost in Green Bay and the biggest problem was protecting their quarterback. Clay Matthews terrorised the offensive line but I can't see the Rams getting to Cutler as often as he did. Matt Forte got injured last week and will miss this game but Michael Bush is a top back in his own right and should be an adequate replacement.

Prediction -
A comfortable victory for the Bears.


Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns


Both teams will be looking at this as a winnable game. The Bills got their first win of the year, last week, with a win over the Chiefs. CJ Spiller has been the star of the show and he has led a Bills running attacking, that is averaging just under 200 yards a game. The Browns rank around the middle in yards given up on the ground, so Spiller should have another big week. The Browns are 0-2 but they haven't played like an 0-2 team. They have played well but were just beaten by better teams in their two games. If the Browns can get Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson playing as well as they did last week, then there's no reason why they can't pick up their first win of the year.

Prediction -
The Browns to edge it.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
The Bucs had a great chance to go 2-0 last week but were unable to hold the lead and the Giants came back to win. If the Bucs are to win this I think they need to do it on the ground. The Cowboys have given up almost as many yards on the ground as they have in the air. The Bucs passing game hasn't really got going yet, so I think they need to get Doug Martin involved. The Cowboys will have saw the Bucs game last week and will attack them with the passing game. The Bucs gave up 500 yards to Eli Manning and the Cowboys will go down the same route. Tony Romo, if he gets time, can be a top quarterback and he has some good receivers at his disposal so there's no reason why the Cowboys can't win this game by passing the football.

Prediction -
A Cowboys victory.


Detroit Lions @ Tennessee Titans


The Lions are 1-1 and in the NFC North they need every win they can get. The Bears and Packers are both capable of a playoff run so the Lions need to win games like this, if they want to compete for a playoff spot. The Lions should try to run the ball as much as possible, as the Titans are giving up over 150 yards a game on the ground. The Titans offense needs to improve big time. They have been very poor so far and are averaging just 248 yards of total offense per game. The Lions have a good defense so I can't see this being the day when the Titans offense starts to click.

Prediction -
The Lions to win this in a blow out.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

The Jags have started 0-2 and have looked poor in doing so. The offense hasn't got started at all and things need to improve or the Jags will be looking at an early draft pick. Blaine Gabbert needs to improve his accuracy to give the Jags a chance. Running-back, Maurice Jones-Drew, is only back in training a few weeks after his holdout and he should improve in the weeks to come but the Jags need him to be at his best now. The Colts got their first win of the season last week over the Vikings.  Quarterback, Andrew Luck has had a mixed start so far. He has thrown for three touchdowns and three interceptions and his accuracy is sitting at 56.6%. It's not a bad start for a guy who has only played two games in the NFL and if he can keep improving then he should have a good NFL career. The key to this game could be the Colts getting a running game going. The Jags are 31st at defending the run and the Colts need to find a way to take advantage of it.

Prediction -
Andrew Luck to lead the Colts to another victory.


New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

There are some great matchups in this game and on paper it could go either way.  The Dolphins are 31st in the NFL against the pass, so it depends which New York Jets turns up.  If it’s the Week 1 Jets, then they pass the Dolphins off the pitch but if it’s the Week 2 Jets, then Mark Sanchez can’t complete a pass and the Dolphins keep the Jets out.  If the Jets can’t get the pass going then I think they will struggle as Miami have been one of the best teams against the run.  Another intriguing match up is the Miami running game, against the Jets defense.  Miami are 2nd in the NFL in rushing, averaging 171 yards per game.  The Jets defense which is normally very good against the run hasn’t been as good this year and CJ Spiller ran all over them in week 1.  Reggie Bush has had a great start to the season and Rex Ryan needs to find a way to stop him.

Prediction –
I think Miami could spring a surprise here and pick up the win.


San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings

This game sees the 49ers, who in my opinion are the best team in the NFL, travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings.  The 49ers opening three games have all been against NFC North opposition and they have already beaten the Packers and the Lions who are better teams than the Vikings.  The Vikings have been better than I expected them to be but they are still the worst team in a very strong NFC North.  Christian Ponder has been better than I expected at quarterback and Adrian Peterson has been better than many expected since his return from injury.  I don’t see the 49ers getting it easy in Minnesota, especially as the VIkings defense has enjoyed a decent start to the season. 

Prediction – A tough battle but one that the 49ers will come out on top of.


Kansas City Chiefs @ New Orleans Saints

This has become a huge game for both sides. One side is going to be coming out of this weekend at 0-3.  Both sides will have started the season looking at a playoff spot but they’ve been disappointing so far.  The Chiefs are putting up some big numbers on offense but turnovers are killing them.  They are averaging almost 400 yards of offense per game and if they can get their running game going , they can hurt the Saints who are ranked last in defending the rush.  The Saints have been good passing the ball so far but they have been very poor on defense.  They rank bottom against the run and 26th against the pass.  If the Saints want to save their season they will need to find a way to stop the Chiefs moving the ball.

Prediction – I think the matchups suit the Chiefs more here and they could edge this one.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Redskins
RG3 makes his home debut, as his Redskins face the Cincinnati Bengals.  RG3 has started well and it looks like there could be exciting times ahead for the Redskins.  The Redskins are 1-1 at the moment but their playoffs took a huge blow last week, with Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker picking up season ending injuries.  It is a huge blow for what was looking like a good defense and it looks like RG3 might need to do even better on offense if the Redskins are to make a success of this season.  One of their biggest weaknesses is defending the pass and Andy Dalton and AJ Green are a combination that could hurt them in this game.  Green has 12 catches so far for 128 yards and a touchdown and I think he could improve on those numbers on Sunday.

Prediction - This will be another tough game to call but I think the Redskins might just sneak a win here.  


Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals
This is a clash of two, 2-0 teams and it looks like being a cracker.  The Eagles have been impressive this season and currently rank 2nd in passing and 8th in rushing.  On defense, they are 4th against the pass and 15th against the run.  Those are good numbers but there is one big problem and that's turnovers. 4.5 turnovers per game, is quite frankly, ridiculous.  I have saw every play in every Eagles game so far and they look so much better than recent years but they are prone to what can only be described as completely, idiotic mistakes.  If the Eagles cut that out, they are a playoff team.  If they don't, then a difficult schedule becomes an almost impossible one.  The Cardinals are the biggest surprise in the NFL so far.  They were poor in the win over Seattle but they bounced back in spectacular fashion, beating the Patriots last week.  That win shows that the Cardinals have to be taken seriously and any defense that can keep Tom Brady and the Patriots out of the endzone for 58 minutes is elite, in my opinion.

Prediction - I don't want to jinx the Eagles but I have to be honest and say I'm liking our chances here.  Turnovers aside we look very good.  The defense has an added toughness this year and this matchup is good for us.  Our weakest point is our run defense and luckily enough, the Cardinals are 28th in the NFL, at running the ball.  The only way we lose this is turnovers and surely we can't turn the ball over four/five times for the third week in a row. 


Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers


Another battle between two 2-0 teams.  Both sides are more than capable of putting together a playoff run and when I look at the matchups it looks like being a very tight game.  The Falcons had a good win last week over a strong Denver Broncos team, although, it has to be said, they got a helping hand from Peyton Manning.  They have great options on the offense with Michael Turner and then the triple threat of Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez.  If that offense gets firing, it's as explosive as any in the NFL.  The defense is Atlanta's biggest problem and it's the only thing stopping them from a serious run at the title.  The Chargers have had good wins over the Raiders and the Titans but to be honest both of those have looked very bad.  The Chargers defense has had a solid start to the season and if they can keep up the good form on that side of the ball and Philip Rivers can keep up his good start, then the Chargers can push the Broncos all the way in the AFC West.

Prediction - San Diego is a tough place to go but I have a lot of confidence in this Falcons team and I think they'll go 3-0.


Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos
This will be the Texans first real test of the season and what a test it is.  A trip to Mile High is usually tough enough but a trip to Mile High, to face a wounded, Peyton Manning, is almost touching on the impossible.  Houston have enjoyed a comfortable route to a 2-0 start, with wins over Miami and Jacksonville.  Their defense seems to have got over losing Mario Williams and Demeco Ryans quite well and they are also running the ball really well, with Arian Foster and Ben Tate combining for 269 yards and five touchdowns in their two games so far.  The Broncos won their first game against Pittsburgh but followed it up with a disappointing defeat in Atlanta on Monday night.  Peyton Manning has rightfully, accepted responsibility for that defeat.  He threw three first quarter interceptions which got his team into trouble and despite a late push they were in too deep and the Falcons hung on.  It's not often Peyton, has two bad games in a row, so it will be interesting to see how this new Manning, bounces back from a poor performance. 

Prediction -
The Texans have never started a season, 3-0 and I think that statistic will be safe for at least another year, Broncos win.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Oakland Raiders
The Raiders have started the season at 0-2 and it has been pretty ugly so far.  They lost the first to San Diego, due to long snapper issues but last weeks loss at Miami was terrible.  The Raiders got hammered on the ground but luckily for them the Steelers rank 30th in rushing so they might be able to keep the Steelers running game under control.  The Raiders have been good against the pass and that is the Steelers best tool on offense.  So far, all the Raiders have done on offense is put up big yards through the air.  They are averaging 34 yards per game on the ground but they have managed over 320 in the air.  Unfortunately for the Raiders, the Steelers are very good at stopping the pass.  This looks like being a great game with tough matchups all over the field.  The Raiders need to take the game to the air again and try to take advantage of the absense of Troy Polamalu. 

Prediction - The matchups in this game are fantastic and make it look like this should be a tight game but in my opinion the Steelers are the better football team and they will pick up the win.


New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens
What a game this will be.  Two of the best teams in the AFC go head to head in what has become an even bigger game after both teams lost last week.  By the time the playoffs start, both of these teams will be expecting to be there but defeats last week, means the loser of this game has a 1-2 record to start the season.  By the time the playoffs come around home advantage and bye weeks will be crucial.  For the losers here, two defeats in the opening three weeks will be a difficult place to come back from, to reach those top seeded spots.  The Ravens haven't been great on pass defense and currently rank 27th against the pass.  If Tom Brady gets into a rhythm early on, it could be a long night for the Ravens.  The Ravens need to give the ball to running-back, Ray Rice more often.  He has been averaging 6.4 yards per carry but they are just not giving him enough of the ball.  He has had 26 carries so far and currently ranks 12th in rushing.  Incidentally, the 11 above Rice, have all had more carries than him.

Prediction - I think Bill Belichick puts the ball in the hands of Tom Brady and he wins the game for the Patriots.


Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

Seattle's, Russell Wilson will make his Monday Night Football debut this week and it doesn't get much tougher than facing the Green Bay Packers.  Most experienced quarterbacks get a shiver down their spine when they are coming against Clay Matthews, so for a rookie to be facing him with the eyes of the nation on him, is quite a daunting task.  The Seahawks will need to get their running game going, first and foremost.  Green Bay are ranked 26th against the run so Seattle can exploit that and put the ball in the hands of Marshawn Lynch.  The Seahawks have a good defense, especially against the run but it takes a great defense to stop Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.  A lot of people are talking about this Seahawks defense, so it will be interesting to see how they cope against one of the best offenses in the league. 

Prediction -
The Seahawks can get at the Packers but I just can't see them winning the game.  Packers win. 


PREDICTIONS UPDATE


Week 1 - 13-3    http://gjsportsblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/gjsportsblogs-nfl-power-rankings-week-1.html
Week 2 - 11-5     http://gjsportsblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/nfl-week-2-preview.html
Week 3 - 1-0     http://gjsportsblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/new-york-giants-carolina-panthers.html

So far I have a running total of 25-8.  It's not a bad record but as I've got off to a good start by picking my first Thursday night game correctly, I'm going to set myself a target of at least matching my 13-3 from week 1.

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