Thursday 27 September 2012

Thursday Night Football - Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens



This is a terrible match up for the Browns.  The last thing you want when you are 0-3, is a game against a team who are on an 8 game winning streak in the division and a 13 game winning streak at home (including a playoff win).  The Browns aren't getting it done in any phase of the game and look like the worst team in the league.  They have yet to win a game this year and face a huge task if they want to do anything about that tonight. 

The usually strong Ravens defense hasn't been great this year.  They rank 28th against the pass and 18th against the run.  The trouble is, the Browns offense doesn't rank much higher.  They are 23rd in passing and 26th in rushing.  To beat the Ravens, the Browns will most likely have to attack them in the air but when your rookie quarterback has twice as many interceptions as touchdowns, in his three games then it would take a gutsy coach to put the ball in his hands.  Add in the fact that your number one receiver, Mohamed Massaquoi is out and it becomes mission impossible. 

The Ravens have a different look about them this year.  Normally they have a dominant defense and a strong running game but this year, it's actually their passing game that ranks highest.  The Ravens are averaging over 300 passing yards a game.  Before this season, Joe Flacco was averaging 215.9 yards per game and his best season saw him throw for 3622 yards, back in 2010.  If Flacco can sustain his current level of performance, he would end this season with 4869 yards.  As good as Baltimore's passing game has been, they still have a more than capable rushing attack.  Ray Rice is as good a running-back as anyone in the NFL.  He is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and has ran in 3 touchdowns.  The only thing holding Rice back at the moment is his lack of carries.  He has only had 46 carries in his 3 games, although he has been targeted on 20 passing plays and has caught 14 of those, for 127 yards. 

Looking at this game from a fantasy standpoint, it looks as though most of the Ravens offense could be good selections.  The statistics suggest that Joe Flacco and the Baltimore receivers would be good picks this week but I'm not so sure.  I think they will have a strong first half but I expect the game to be a blow out and if the Ravens are ahead by a comfortable scoreline from early on, it is likely, they will run the ball a bit more.  I know it's not exactly headline news but in that scenario, Ray Rice should put up some big numbers.  The only danger will be if they pull him out of the game when the game is won, although Rice would most likely want to stay in the game to bulk up his numbers, in order to win the rushing title at the end of the year.

Prediction -
It has to be a Ravens blow out. 

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